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"We risk being convinced that we have averted something that was never really going to be as severe as we feared."
This is totally contradicted by the Imperial study which said that left unchecked C-19 would have killed 40,000,000 this year alone.
I think this alone highlights that even experts can't agree given the limited data at the moment.
He does have a point around the classification of the deaths as all being C-19 if they are infected but then it could be argued that without C-19 the body wouldn't have succumbed to the underlying condition as it wouldn't have been using resources to fight C-19.
He also has a point that the data is very incomplete with no common methodology between countries which is a huge problem for modellers and thus for governments when they need to make decisions.
SB
[Post edited 29 Mar 2020 23:22]
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TWTD hive mind - what do you make of this point of view??? on 23:25 - Mar 29 with 3177 views
what he says about the difficulty in measuring death rates seems fine. but this ins't necessarily about absolute death rates - it's about the number of people simultaneously requiring hospital treatment. clearly we are used to X many thousand people each year dying of flu - what we aren't prepared to tolerate, and no government can be seen to allow, is people dying because the health service couldn't treat them.
[Post edited 29 Mar 2020 23:28]
And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show
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TWTD hive mind - what do you make of this point of view??? on 23:27 - Mar 29 with 3169 views
I have heard a similar view expressed by a GP, not directly but recounted by her father (just before the lock down, we have not met since). The inference of McLuhanism instead of hard science in the article you posted is redolent of the adverse effects of social media that have caused so much concern recently.
Trump said people have been asking what would happen if the country did nothing and rode it out. Unclear if anyone outside the administration or its allies is asking that.
The spectator is a scurrilous repository of flaky libertarianism. Libertarianism has as a core belief 'survival of the fittest' - ie 'social Darwinism'. To such libertarians, our present difficulties will help weed out the weak or unfit.
TWTD hive mind - what do you make of this point of view??? on 23:41 - Mar 29 by ElderGrizzly
Trump said people have been asking what would happen if the country did nothing and rode it out. Unclear if anyone outside the administration or its allies is asking that.
TWTD hive mind - what do you make of this point of view??? on 23:20 - Mar 29 by StokieBlue
"We risk being convinced that we have averted something that was never really going to be as severe as we feared."
This is totally contradicted by the Imperial study which said that left unchecked C-19 would have killed 40,000,000 this year alone.
I think this alone highlights that even experts can't agree given the limited data at the moment.
He does have a point around the classification of the deaths as all being C-19 if they are infected but then it could be argued that without C-19 the body wouldn't have succumbed to the underlying condition as it wouldn't have been using resources to fight C-19.
He also has a point that the data is very incomplete with no common methodology between countries which is a huge problem for modellers and thus for governments when they need to make decisions.
SB
[Post edited 29 Mar 2020 23:22]
Classic example of these types of articles below, but you’ll note the original premise of the article had been massively changed:
TWTD hive mind - what do you make of this point of view??? on 00:05 - Mar 30 by jeera
To think this was all a month ago:
Everyone knows the most powerful man on the planet is a raving loon, so how come nobody can do anything about it?
I would argue that Vladimir Putin is the most powerful man on the planet myself, if it gives you any comfort that the raving loon is a de facto puppet...
TWTD hive mind - what do you make of this point of view??? on 00:18 - Mar 30 by WeWereZombies
I would argue that Vladimir Putin is the most powerful man on the planet myself, if it gives you any comfort that the raving loon is a de facto puppet...
Interesting take on him from John Simpson, who I heard speak in Bury St Edmunds a while back.
His view was that Putin leads an intensely proud but essentially weak country economically. For all their mineral wealth and abundant natural resources, their economy is less productive per capita than Australia (both have similar GDPs, but Russia has five times as many people).
Putin is basically all fur coat and no knickers; playing the big man to satisfy a domestic audience.
To that extent, he's trump but in Cyrillic script.
TWTD hive mind - what do you make of this point of view??? on 00:35 - Mar 30 by factual_blue
Interesting take on him from John Simpson, who I heard speak in Bury St Edmunds a while back.
His view was that Putin leads an intensely proud but essentially weak country economically. For all their mineral wealth and abundant natural resources, their economy is less productive per capita than Australia (both have similar GDPs, but Russia has five times as many people).
Putin is basically all fur coat and no knickers; playing the big man to satisfy a domestic audience.
To that extent, he's trump but in Cyrillic script.
Russia does have a few more nuclear weapons than Australia though.
TWTD hive mind - what do you make of this point of view??? on 00:42 - Mar 30 by WeWereZombies
Russia does have a few more nuclear weapons than Australia though.
Russia isn't too dissimilar to the US in as much as it consists of fundamentally two sections of society. Or at least trains of thought.
There's a modern side to Russia; of educated people, remnants of a previous generation who had aspirations outside of the old Union, and lots of students too, who want to be part of a progressive something. That's not to say that they all trust, or want to be part of the West, but they no longer want to be controlled by the past either.
There's a real backward part to Russia too. Traditionalists who distrust anything and everything that comes from anywhere other than their own government.
Some of the people there are really poor and live hand to mouth, and those seem to be the most distrustful of outsiders and any prospect of political progression.
TWTD hive mind - what do you make of this point of view??? on 07:31 - Mar 30 by BanksterDebtSlave
My early morning thought is that Stokie's response is much more measured than if the article had been penned by myself!
Not really.
The author manages to use full sentences which convey his exact meaning rather than small posts which clearly mean something but allow wiggle room.
Not sure why you are calling me out? What about the other posters who have said the same as me - must be well into double-figures by now and that's assuming I've not missed some.
SB
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TWTD hive mind - what do you make of this point of view??? on 08:40 - Mar 30 with 2744 views
In downplaying the overall threat, he might be right or he might be wrong.
The issue is that he's definitely wrong when it comes to the effect on healthcare resources in major cities. And thus, he's wrong to be spreading a view that possibly encourages people to not take the lockdown as seriously.
Personally, I'd rather we took it more seriously until we can effectively gauge the spread and underlying mortality rate. And even if the overall threat is lower then that still might mean localised lockdowns and at-risk groups isolating themselves over a much longer period.
Pronouns: He/Him
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TWTD hive mind - what do you make of this point of view??? on 09:48 - Mar 30 with 2678 views
TWTD hive mind - what do you make of this point of view??? on 08:32 - Mar 30 by StokieBlue
Not really.
The author manages to use full sentences which convey his exact meaning rather than small posts which clearly mean something but allow wiggle room.
Not sure why you are calling me out? What about the other posters who have said the same as me - must be well into double-figures by now and that's assuming I've not missed some.
SB
I think my comments on the overlap in cause of death figures were pretty straight forward but you accused me of not being able to add up!
"They break our legs and tell us to be grateful when they offer us crutches."
The hole in his argument is in the third paragraph: 'At the time of writing, 422 deaths are linked to Covid-19' - just five days later, it is nearly triple that figure.
The rest of his argument appears to be founded on "If we had done nothing, it might not have been that bad". An unproveable theorum, given we (and almost everyone else) have done quite a bit. What public health professional or government minister is going to risk the loss of thousands of lives on a feeble and complacent argument like that?
TWTD hive mind - what do you make of this point of view??? on 08:42 - Mar 30 by factual_blue
If they work...
I remember reading some years ago of a CIA officer who checked into one of Moscow's leading hotels during the Soviet era.
He said he knew the Soviets would win neither the cold war or a 'hot' war when the washbasin in his room fell off the wall.
I think the Soviets concentrated their efforts in some areas to the detriment of others. Also, the much loved anecdote about the Americans spending millions developing a ballpoint that could write upside down in space (actually, there is no upside down in space), the Russians used a pencil...
Beyond that we must remember that the Soviet era is more than thirty years gone now (I know, a mere instant in our venerable lifetimes), perhaps the most worrying thing I find about Russia nowadays is that they seem to have gotten their alcoholism problems under control.
TWTD hive mind - what do you make of this point of view??? on 09:50 - Mar 30 by StokieBlue
That's not what happened and not what you wrote but I am not going to argue about it.
In fact if that was your point then your post was far from clear.
These people certainly wouldn't of died without C-19:
"The deaths of more than 50 doctors from coronavirus in Italy"
SB
[Post edited 30 Mar 2020 10:07]
'These people certainly wouldn't of died without C-19'
I'm sorry to inform you but one of the sad realities of life, along with taxes of course, is they would have. But at a later date. I think that is the thrust of the argument in The Spectator article.
TWTD hive mind - what do you make of this point of view??? on 10:57 - Mar 30 by WeWereZombies
'These people certainly wouldn't of died without C-19'
I'm sorry to inform you but one of the sad realities of life, along with taxes of course, is they would have. But at a later date. I think that is the thrust of the argument in The Spectator article.
Not really sure there is any need for pedantic replies.
I am also not referring to the Spectator article - if you look at DBS post it's in reference to a thread he started a couple of days ago where he was downplaying things again.
SB
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TWTD hive mind - what do you make of this point of view??? on 11:28 - Mar 30 with 2542 views
TWTD hive mind - what do you make of this point of view??? on 11:03 - Mar 30 by StokieBlue
Not really sure there is any need for pedantic replies.
I am also not referring to the Spectator article - if you look at DBS post it's in reference to a thread he started a couple of days ago where he was downplaying things again.
SB
Bit uncalled for, I was pointing out a logical flaw. If we cannot think clearly at a time like this then more mistakes than necessary will occur.
TWTD hive mind - what do you make of this point of view??? on 11:28 - Mar 30 by WeWereZombies
Bit uncalled for, I was pointing out a logical flaw. If we cannot think clearly at a time like this then more mistakes than necessary will occur.
It wasn't a logic flaw in the context we were discussing it which wasn't this article.
I can find the thread that he was referencing if you would like, although it wasn't that interesting and I am sure you have more entertaining things to read.
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