| Some good news on Covid-19 on 15:57 - Mar 30 with 2463 views | StokieBlue |
"We estimate that, across all 11 countries between 7 and 43 million individuals have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 up to 28th March, representing between 1.88% and 11.43% of the population."
Really highlights that the metrics given by the government are severely lacking due to the difficulty in performing millions of tests.
SB |  |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Some good news on Covid-19 on 16:01 - Mar 30 with 2442 views | ThisIsMyUsername |
I'm hoping that it's all going to be over quicker than they've said in the last 24 hours, and the stuff about 6 months (or more) before things are 'back to normal' is the government being absolute 'worst case scenario' so people are prepared if it does last that long.
Then when I pull my head out of the sand I realise it's possible things will go completely in the other direction and we'll still be sitting at home in a year.
I've also been genuinely wondering if I am going to wake up at some point and realise this has all been a dream.
Most of the time I just want to cry. |  |
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| Some good news on Covid-19 on 16:03 - Mar 30 with 2411 views | jeera |
| Some good news on Covid-19 on 16:01 - Mar 30 by ThisIsMyUsername |
I'm hoping that it's all going to be over quicker than they've said in the last 24 hours, and the stuff about 6 months (or more) before things are 'back to normal' is the government being absolute 'worst case scenario' so people are prepared if it does last that long.
Then when I pull my head out of the sand I realise it's possible things will go completely in the other direction and we'll still be sitting at home in a year.
I've also been genuinely wondering if I am going to wake up at some point and realise this has all been a dream.
Most of the time I just want to cry. |
I can't help but visualize you having Robert Webb as a flatmate. |  |
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| Some good news on Covid-19 on 16:05 - Mar 30 with 2405 views | homer_123 |
| Some good news on Covid-19 on 15:57 - Mar 30 by StokieBlue |
"We estimate that, across all 11 countries between 7 and 43 million individuals have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 up to 28th March, representing between 1.88% and 11.43% of the population."
Really highlights that the metrics given by the government are severely lacking due to the difficulty in performing millions of tests.
SB |
Not only that but the difference between the high and low figure is enough to almost warrant the analysis inconclusive. |  |
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| Some good news on Covid-19 on 16:09 - Mar 30 with 2371 views | ThisIsMyUsername |
| Some good news on Covid-19 on 16:03 - Mar 30 by jeera |
I can't help but visualize you having Robert Webb as a flatmate. |
Chance would be a fine thing. | |
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| Some good news on Covid-19 on 16:12 - Mar 30 with 2356 views | bluelagos |
From 1.88% to 11.43% is hell of a spread isn't it.
Surely we could sample test 1000 random people to get a far better feel for how many overall have the virus? Might need to do it in the cities / countryside etc. but it can't be beyond our scientists.
Edit: Is that a European figure rather than UK? If so, would make it harder to model. Would be nice to know (not that we are important) what they think the UK figures are. [Post edited 30 Mar 2020 16:18]
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| Some good news on Covid-19 on 16:19 - Mar 30 with 2313 views | hampstead_blue |
| Some good news on Covid-19 on 16:05 - Mar 30 by homer_123 |
Not only that but the difference between the high and low figure is enough to almost warrant the analysis inconclusive. |
that's exactly my thoughts.
the variance is so big to warrant an explanation.... |  |
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Those who assume they know you, when they don't are just guessing.
Those who assume and insist they know are daft and in denial.
Those who assume, insist, and deny the truth are plain stupid.
Those who assume, insist, deny the truth and tell YOU they know you (when they don't) have an IQ in the range of 35-49.
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| Some good news on Covid-19 on 16:25 - Mar 30 with 2284 views | gordon |
| Some good news on Covid-19 on 15:57 - Mar 30 by StokieBlue |
"We estimate that, across all 11 countries between 7 and 43 million individuals have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 up to 28th March, representing between 1.88% and 11.43% of the population."
Really highlights that the metrics given by the government are severely lacking due to the difficulty in performing millions of tests.
SB |
Really wouldn't have to be millions of tests - a reasonably representative random sample of the population (regardless of whether people were showing symptoms) would produce a pretty good estimate of how many people have been infected in total with a couple of runs of a few thousand, separated by a few weeks.
Really surprised that no-one seems to be doing that / has done that - to me there isn't that much value in testing patients who come in to intensive care with severe respiratory problems - you've got to treat the respiratory problems regardless of whether they are COVID related. |  | | |
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| Some good news on Covid-19 on 16:29 - Mar 30 with 2264 views | StokieBlue |
| Some good news on Covid-19 on 16:25 - Mar 30 by gordon |
Really wouldn't have to be millions of tests - a reasonably representative random sample of the population (regardless of whether people were showing symptoms) would produce a pretty good estimate of how many people have been infected in total with a couple of runs of a few thousand, separated by a few weeks.
Really surprised that no-one seems to be doing that / has done that - to me there isn't that much value in testing patients who come in to intensive care with severe respiratory problems - you've got to treat the respiratory problems regardless of whether they are COVID related. |
That is true, although it would be a bit more complex than say election polling as you'd need to make sure you distributed the tests amongst areas with and without high cases and decided how many in families to do (given they are likely to have it as well if in the same house).
You're right that it's surprising it's not been done. A 30m+ margin of error is basically pointless.
SB | |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Some good news on Covid-19 on 16:32 - Mar 30 with 2252 views | factual_blue |
From your title, I thought this would be about cummings. |  |
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| Some good news on Covid-19 on 16:54 - Mar 30 with 2176 views | bluelagos |
| Some good news on Covid-19 on 16:25 - Mar 30 by gordon |
Really wouldn't have to be millions of tests - a reasonably representative random sample of the population (regardless of whether people were showing symptoms) would produce a pretty good estimate of how many people have been infected in total with a couple of runs of a few thousand, separated by a few weeks.
Really surprised that no-one seems to be doing that / has done that - to me there isn't that much value in testing patients who come in to intensive care with severe respiratory problems - you've got to treat the respiratory problems regardless of whether they are COVID related. |
That's the point I was trying to make.
Sample sizes are surprising small. They use 1000 odd for 25m voters (albeit as Stokey pointed out this would be a bit more complex) | |
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| Some good news on Covid-19 on 16:54 - Mar 30 with 2177 views | Guthrum |
UK's daily death rate has declined for the second day running. |  |
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| Some good news on Covid-19 on 16:59 - Mar 30 with 2147 views | gordon |
| Some good news on Covid-19 on 16:54 - Mar 30 by bluelagos |
That's the point I was trying to make.
Sample sizes are surprising small. They use 1000 odd for 25m voters (albeit as Stokey pointed out this would be a bit more complex) |
The confidence intervals aren't that big actually, 1.2% - 5.4% is a good enough estimate to base policy on. | | | |
| Some good news on Covid-19 on 17:05 - Mar 30 with 2123 views | homer_123 |
| Some good news on Covid-19 on 16:54 - Mar 30 by Guthrum |
UK's daily death rate has declined for the second day running. |
Last weekends figures were down as well.
Fingers crossed though. | |
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| Some good news on Covid-19 on 17:05 - Mar 30 with 2122 views | StokieBlue |
| Some good news on Covid-19 on 16:59 - Mar 30 by gordon |
The confidence intervals aren't that big actually, 1.2% - 5.4% is a good enough estimate to base policy on. |
The UK has one of the smallest intervals in that table - Spain still has a massive spread.
That data is taken from the Imperial report right? I'll maybe have a look later - interesting table though, thanks for posting.
SB | |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Some good news on Covid-19 on 17:07 - Mar 30 with 2117 views | Guthrum |
| Some good news on Covid-19 on 17:05 - Mar 30 by homer_123 |
Last weekends figures were down as well.
Fingers crossed though. |
Only one single day dip. That could be an anomaly. Two days is promising, but we'll have to see where it goes from there. | |
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| Some good news on Covid-19 on 18:03 - Mar 30 with 1998 views | Freddies_Ears |
| Some good news on Covid-19 on 15:57 - Mar 30 by StokieBlue |
"We estimate that, across all 11 countries between 7 and 43 million individuals have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 up to 28th March, representing between 1.88% and 11.43% of the population."
Really highlights that the metrics given by the government are severely lacking due to the difficulty in performing millions of tests.
SB |
Germany is managing to do 500,000 tests each week, so it is possible. We're about one fifth of that. |  | | |
| Some good news on Covid-19 on 18:28 - Mar 30 with 1952 views | gordon |
| Some good news on Covid-19 on 18:03 - Mar 30 by Freddies_Ears |
Germany is managing to do 500,000 tests each week, so it is possible. We're about one fifth of that. |
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-germany-covid-19-immunity-certificat
They also might have this in the pipeline, although I'd guess that it will still be a while before these antibody tests are widely available, they'd have to have close to 100% accuracy to avoid having a negative effect. | | | |
| Some good news on Covid-19 on 18:36 - Mar 30 with 1929 views | monytowbray |
| Some good news on Covid-19 on 17:05 - Mar 30 by homer_123 |
Last weekends figures were down as well.
Fingers crossed though. |
Shadiq Khan thinks the London peak is 1-2 weeks off though. |  |
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| Some good news on Covid-19 on 18:47 - Mar 30 with 1907 views | Trequartista |
| Some good news on Covid-19 on 16:54 - Mar 30 by Guthrum |
UK's daily death rate has declined for the second day running. |
They've done that before, as have most countries. It is inevitable they will be increasing again, although i note Italy 15 days ago, the curve we were following, was well into the 300s, so some flattening could be occurring from measures made before lockdown.
The good news is the decreasing rate of hospitalisations.
All the figures about how many lives lockdown is saving is pure guesswork. It is only when we see what happens in Belarus, Sweden etc that we will have some idea. |  |
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| Some good news on Covid-19 on 19:07 - Mar 30 with 1858 views | gordon |
| Some good news on Covid-19 on 17:05 - Mar 30 by StokieBlue |
The UK has one of the smallest intervals in that table - Spain still has a massive spread.
That data is taken from the Imperial report right? I'll maybe have a look later - interesting table though, thanks for posting.
SB |
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowsh
The models use deaths to back-calculate to infections (I think) so the lower credible intervals will probably just be because in the UK the data is a better fit to the model, whereas in e.g. Spain the larger relative credible intervals will be an artefact of there being greater stochasticity in the death rate there (again, I think). | | | |
| Some good news on Covid-19 on 22:10 - Mar 30 with 1709 views | BlueBadger |
| Some good news on Covid-19 on 16:32 - Mar 30 by factual_blue |
From your title, I thought this would be about cummings. |
I'm sure we all have our fingers crossed. |  |
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