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This is a bit worrying, if predictable 19:24 - Mar 31 with 4536 viewsgordon

Michael Gove straight up lying to the country about why they haven't been able to carry out many COVID tests - surely they would know someone would check? (read the whole twitter thread)

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This is a bit worrying, if predictable on 21:42 - Mar 31 with 958 viewsNewcyBlue

This is a bit worrying, if predictable on 21:17 - Mar 31 by gordon

This was a pretty simple, clear summary of what went wrong with the initial modelling.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/mar/25/coronavirus-exposes-the-problems


It unsurprising that there was no real accurate data for this scenario, and the modelling was done based on assumptions.

Until accurate data became available for Italy.

Also, we are forgetting the attitude of the British public in all this. We haven’t covered ourselves in glory.

But it’s easier to shout about using different data, like the Swedes are doing, rather than think logically and critically.

I’m no fan of Johnson. I think the messaging through March has been confused, that the NHS is woefully underprepared for this, and I hope that we can heal as a country. The scale of crisis in China was apparent with their quarantine measures in Wuhan.

Mid January the WHO were still confused





But, until the public can take responsibility for their actions, we need clearer communication and harsh penalties. I see people flouting the social distancing sand lockdown measures.

Coronavirus: Hoaxer who spat at supermarket staff jailed https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-52110064

Coronavirus: Men remanded in connection with Darlington nurse uniform theft https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tees-52102580

MrsN has had an email telling her to conceal her NHS ID when she is going into and leaving work, there have been staff at her hospital mugged for theirs.

Some people really need a good kicking.

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This is a bit worrying, if predictable on 21:42 - Mar 31 with 960 viewsSwansea_Blue

This is a bit worrying, if predictable on 20:02 - Mar 31 by GlasgowBlue

I've always been a fan of Gove but this and other recent events have shown him to be the duplicitous bastard most people had already recognised.


That's the thing with him. He's far from the least competent according to the people that work with him, but he is indeed a duplicitous bastard. He always has been and probably always will be.

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This is a bit worrying, if predictable on 21:51 - Mar 31 with 942 viewsLord_Lucan

Well I am disappointed with Gove, I don't particularly warm to him but I thought he was a very effective politician.

What I don't understand though is if they can buy the tests but won't then why? I don't see how it would be costs because the cost is insignificant when you look at how much money they are pumping out.

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This is a bit worrying, if predictable on 21:55 - Mar 31 with 932 viewsBloomBlue

This is a bit worrying, if predictable on 21:42 - Mar 31 by NewcyBlue

It unsurprising that there was no real accurate data for this scenario, and the modelling was done based on assumptions.

Until accurate data became available for Italy.

Also, we are forgetting the attitude of the British public in all this. We haven’t covered ourselves in glory.

But it’s easier to shout about using different data, like the Swedes are doing, rather than think logically and critically.

I’m no fan of Johnson. I think the messaging through March has been confused, that the NHS is woefully underprepared for this, and I hope that we can heal as a country. The scale of crisis in China was apparent with their quarantine measures in Wuhan.

Mid January the WHO were still confused





But, until the public can take responsibility for their actions, we need clearer communication and harsh penalties. I see people flouting the social distancing sand lockdown measures.

Coronavirus: Hoaxer who spat at supermarket staff jailed https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-52110064

Coronavirus: Men remanded in connection with Darlington nurse uniform theft https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tees-52102580

MrsN has had an email telling her to conceal her NHS ID when she is going into and leaving work, there have been staff at her hospital mugged for theirs.

Some people really need a good kicking.


On the TV this morning they said nurses have been told not to travel in uniform or wear their ID badge because nurses have been mugged for their ID badges, so disgusting that's happening.
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This is a bit worrying, if predictable on 22:02 - Mar 31 with 911 viewsm14_blue

This is a bit worrying, if predictable on 21:42 - Mar 31 by NewcyBlue

It unsurprising that there was no real accurate data for this scenario, and the modelling was done based on assumptions.

Until accurate data became available for Italy.

Also, we are forgetting the attitude of the British public in all this. We haven’t covered ourselves in glory.

But it’s easier to shout about using different data, like the Swedes are doing, rather than think logically and critically.

I’m no fan of Johnson. I think the messaging through March has been confused, that the NHS is woefully underprepared for this, and I hope that we can heal as a country. The scale of crisis in China was apparent with their quarantine measures in Wuhan.

Mid January the WHO were still confused





But, until the public can take responsibility for their actions, we need clearer communication and harsh penalties. I see people flouting the social distancing sand lockdown measures.

Coronavirus: Hoaxer who spat at supermarket staff jailed https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-52110064

Coronavirus: Men remanded in connection with Darlington nurse uniform theft https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tees-52102580

MrsN has had an email telling her to conceal her NHS ID when she is going into and leaving work, there have been staff at her hospital mugged for theirs.

Some people really need a good kicking.


Quite, there are lots of reasons to point the finger at the tories around this, continuing pitiful efforts to properly equip those on the front line being the obvious one.

However, I don’t like people jumping on the bandwagon to attack the overall strategy.

I have no idea if that strategy is/was flawed (and frankly it’s surprised me how many epidemiology experts reside on TWTD) but there’s nothing to suggest the government were doing anything other than following the advice of their apolitical experts. Surely that’s what we want them to do? Would we really rather they acted on gut instinct? If they’re doing as they’re advised by the experts I’m ok with that.

Now you could very well argue that the culture created by Brexiteers of distrust in experts and writing everything off as ‘scaremongering’ led to the outrageous behaviour of the British public in the early stages of the lockdown.

Oh, and Gove is a liar?? Quelle surprise.
[Post edited 31 Mar 2020 22:09]
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This is a bit worrying, if predictable on 22:42 - Mar 31 with 872 viewsBasuco

He is not lying, there is a shortage as he stated, it is just due to the government not ordering any.
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This is a bit worrying, if predictable on 08:18 - Apr 1 with 796 viewsNewcyBlue

This is a bit worrying, if predictable on 21:55 - Mar 31 by BloomBlue

On the TV this morning they said nurses have been told not to travel in uniform or wear their ID badge because nurses have been mugged for their ID badges, so disgusting that's happening.


Yeah MrsN changes into uniform at work.

There has also been a spate of bicycle thefts from hospitals.

At a time when we should be pulling together, there is a minority letting us down. Very very badly.

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This is a bit worrying, if predictable on 09:33 - Apr 1 with 762 viewsitfcjoe

This is a bit worrying, if predictable on 22:02 - Mar 31 by m14_blue

Quite, there are lots of reasons to point the finger at the tories around this, continuing pitiful efforts to properly equip those on the front line being the obvious one.

However, I don’t like people jumping on the bandwagon to attack the overall strategy.

I have no idea if that strategy is/was flawed (and frankly it’s surprised me how many epidemiology experts reside on TWTD) but there’s nothing to suggest the government were doing anything other than following the advice of their apolitical experts. Surely that’s what we want them to do? Would we really rather they acted on gut instinct? If they’re doing as they’re advised by the experts I’m ok with that.

Now you could very well argue that the culture created by Brexiteers of distrust in experts and writing everything off as ‘scaremongering’ led to the outrageous behaviour of the British public in the early stages of the lockdown.

Oh, and Gove is a liar?? Quelle surprise.
[Post edited 31 Mar 2020 22:09]


For me the issue appeared to be that the whole world was zigging and we were electing to zag, and then a few days later decided that to also zig was the best policy

Heads should roll for that initial approach, we were too slow to react and doing the opposite to everyone else.

That Cheltenham was allowed to go ahead, and that 3000 fans travelled from Madrid to Liverpool whilst Madrid was having a serious amount of cases were just two high profile poor decisions.

Whether the term herd immunity was specifically stated by Boris is beside the point, it was clear that was the Govt strategy which turned out to be very, very wrong and cost us vital days/weeks

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This is a bit worrying, if predictable on 09:35 - Apr 1 with 752 viewssparks

This is a bit worrying, if predictable on 09:33 - Apr 1 by itfcjoe

For me the issue appeared to be that the whole world was zigging and we were electing to zag, and then a few days later decided that to also zig was the best policy

Heads should roll for that initial approach, we were too slow to react and doing the opposite to everyone else.

That Cheltenham was allowed to go ahead, and that 3000 fans travelled from Madrid to Liverpool whilst Madrid was having a serious amount of cases were just two high profile poor decisions.

Whether the term herd immunity was specifically stated by Boris is beside the point, it was clear that was the Govt strategy which turned out to be very, very wrong and cost us vital days/weeks


1- I dont think we can actually conclude that at this point.
2- If it was the scientific independent advice being given, then it was correct for it to be polcy
3- At no point was herd immunity stated to be the primary or only approach / goal- as various people have tried to claim, and have tried to support with dishonestly edited video.

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This is a bit worrying, if predictable on 09:37 - Apr 1 with 750 viewsStokieBlue

This is a bit worrying, if predictable on 09:33 - Apr 1 by itfcjoe

For me the issue appeared to be that the whole world was zigging and we were electing to zag, and then a few days later decided that to also zig was the best policy

Heads should roll for that initial approach, we were too slow to react and doing the opposite to everyone else.

That Cheltenham was allowed to go ahead, and that 3000 fans travelled from Madrid to Liverpool whilst Madrid was having a serious amount of cases were just two high profile poor decisions.

Whether the term herd immunity was specifically stated by Boris is beside the point, it was clear that was the Govt strategy which turned out to be very, very wrong and cost us vital days/weeks


Just for some clarity here, it wasn't a strategy devised by the government but by the modelling teams who would have been supporting any government.

They were too slow to change their modelling assumptions, when they did and changed their advice the government moved on it.

If the government had ignored the modelling they were given at any time people would also scream about that.

Doesn't mean you are wrong though, it does seem like we lost vital time at the start of the response.

SB

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This is a bit worrying, if predictable on 09:54 - Apr 1 with 723 viewsitfcjoe

This is a bit worrying, if predictable on 09:37 - Apr 1 by StokieBlue

Just for some clarity here, it wasn't a strategy devised by the government but by the modelling teams who would have been supporting any government.

They were too slow to change their modelling assumptions, when they did and changed their advice the government moved on it.

If the government had ignored the modelling they were given at any time people would also scream about that.

Doesn't mean you are wrong though, it does seem like we lost vital time at the start of the response.

SB


Whatever the models, it seems counterintuitive to also look at what else everyone else is doing, and you need to really check why you are electing to go the opposite way to everyone else (and in reality justify it). To then change tact to doing what everyone else was previously doing is a massive worry.

This podcast is an interesting listen for some science bits, but was about 10 days ago so may be a bit out of date - sure you'd enjoy Stokie http://aca.st/5e32b1

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This is a bit worrying, if predictable on 10:12 - Apr 1 with 707 viewsgordon

This is a bit worrying, if predictable on 09:35 - Apr 1 by sparks

1- I dont think we can actually conclude that at this point.
2- If it was the scientific independent advice being given, then it was correct for it to be polcy
3- At no point was herd immunity stated to be the primary or only approach / goal- as various people have tried to claim, and have tried to support with dishonestly edited video.


It isn't really relevant whether herd immunity was the 'only' approach, of course it wasn't. The point was that we weren't working towards building testing capacity until very recently.

The WHO were consistent in saying that testing capacity was the key from an early stage, but we largely ignored this advice and the approaches that had successfully suppressed the virus elsewhere. We're now trying to catch up.
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This is a bit worrying, if predictable on 10:20 - Apr 1 with 696 viewsSwansea_Blue

This is a bit worrying, if predictable on 21:42 - Mar 31 by NewcyBlue

It unsurprising that there was no real accurate data for this scenario, and the modelling was done based on assumptions.

Until accurate data became available for Italy.

Also, we are forgetting the attitude of the British public in all this. We haven’t covered ourselves in glory.

But it’s easier to shout about using different data, like the Swedes are doing, rather than think logically and critically.

I’m no fan of Johnson. I think the messaging through March has been confused, that the NHS is woefully underprepared for this, and I hope that we can heal as a country. The scale of crisis in China was apparent with their quarantine measures in Wuhan.

Mid January the WHO were still confused





But, until the public can take responsibility for their actions, we need clearer communication and harsh penalties. I see people flouting the social distancing sand lockdown measures.

Coronavirus: Hoaxer who spat at supermarket staff jailed https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-52110064

Coronavirus: Men remanded in connection with Darlington nurse uniform theft https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tees-52102580

MrsN has had an email telling her to conceal her NHS ID when she is going into and leaving work, there have been staff at her hospital mugged for theirs.

Some people really need a good kicking.


The WHO were confused mid-January as this thing was still very much in its infancy. At the time we were defending our approach in mid-March, the WHO were were criticising us because there was a body of data that suggested our approach would lead to thousands of unnecessary deaths. By then we had better knowledge on the hospitalisation rates of the disease.

The bottom line on all of this is that we rallied behind a strategy without proper consideration of the wider scientific consensus and without listening to other countries further down the curve and the WHO. We're still not listening to the WHO, who recommend a 14 day incubation period rather than our 7 (yet we acknowledge people can be infectious for over a week, go figure 🤷‍♂️). That strategy may have been mostly politically driven - there were plenty of noises coming from media 'sources' that Cummings was the one pushing it, but we can't know for sure of course.

We're still playing that British exceptionalism game - see the EU procurement scheme fiasco.

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This is a bit worrying, if predictable on 10:27 - Apr 1 with 684 viewsGlasgowBlue

This is a bit worrying, if predictable on 10:12 - Apr 1 by gordon

It isn't really relevant whether herd immunity was the 'only' approach, of course it wasn't. The point was that we weren't working towards building testing capacity until very recently.

The WHO were consistent in saying that testing capacity was the key from an early stage, but we largely ignored this advice and the approaches that had successfully suppressed the virus elsewhere. We're now trying to catch up.


I assume it’s apologies all round in this thread in light of Peston rowing back on his claim?



Apology from me for accepting what Peston posted on face value rather than checking the facts. I still think Gove is a duplicitous bastard but it seems in this occasion he was being entirely truthful.

And apology from Gordon for doing the same and starting the thread?

An apology from Callis for dreaming, or just making up, that Boris Johnson made an announcement that the government’s sole plan for dealing with this virus was herd immunity?

An apology from gorm for not just posting a heavily edited clip of BJ in order to suggest his view was letting everybody catch the virus, but then doubling down on it when he was proved by other posters that was not his view and that the clip had been edited in order to score political points?

Sorry if I’ve left anyone out.
[Post edited 1 Apr 2020 10:28]

Iron Lion Zion
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This is a bit worrying, if predictable on 10:31 - Apr 1 with 673 viewsgordon

This is a bit worrying, if predictable on 10:27 - Apr 1 by GlasgowBlue

I assume it’s apologies all round in this thread in light of Peston rowing back on his claim?



Apology from me for accepting what Peston posted on face value rather than checking the facts. I still think Gove is a duplicitous bastard but it seems in this occasion he was being entirely truthful.

And apology from Gordon for doing the same and starting the thread?

An apology from Callis for dreaming, or just making up, that Boris Johnson made an announcement that the government’s sole plan for dealing with this virus was herd immunity?

An apology from gorm for not just posting a heavily edited clip of BJ in order to suggest his view was letting everybody catch the virus, but then doubling down on it when he was proved by other posters that was not his view and that the clip had been edited in order to score political points?

Sorry if I’ve left anyone out.
[Post edited 1 Apr 2020 10:28]


You're an obnoxious g*t, but sounds like your right! apologies!

EDIT: I'm joking, don't kick off!
[Post edited 1 Apr 2020 10:32]
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This is a bit worrying, if predictable on 10:37 - Apr 1 with 652 viewsBloomBlue

This is a bit worrying, if predictable on 10:27 - Apr 1 by GlasgowBlue

I assume it’s apologies all round in this thread in light of Peston rowing back on his claim?



Apology from me for accepting what Peston posted on face value rather than checking the facts. I still think Gove is a duplicitous bastard but it seems in this occasion he was being entirely truthful.

And apology from Gordon for doing the same and starting the thread?

An apology from Callis for dreaming, or just making up, that Boris Johnson made an announcement that the government’s sole plan for dealing with this virus was herd immunity?

An apology from gorm for not just posting a heavily edited clip of BJ in order to suggest his view was letting everybody catch the virus, but then doubling down on it when he was proved by other posters that was not his view and that the clip had been edited in order to score political points?

Sorry if I’ve left anyone out.
[Post edited 1 Apr 2020 10:28]


You left out Preston
Preston has a reputation for not checking facts, one of the reason why a number of people in the BBC were happy to see him move to ITV.
If he had any standards if would resign now after posting that before checking the facts
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This is a bit worrying, if predictable on 10:58 - Apr 1 with 627 viewsGlasgowBlue

This is a bit worrying, if predictable on 10:31 - Apr 1 by gordon

You're an obnoxious g*t, but sounds like your right! apologies!

EDIT: I'm joking, don't kick off!
[Post edited 1 Apr 2020 10:32]


Credit to you Gordon. I have great respect for Peston when it comes to economics but this has once again proved that commenting on science should be left to those who understand it.

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This is a bit worrying, if predictable on 11:24 - Apr 1 with 613 viewsSwansea_Blue

This is a bit worrying, if predictable on 10:37 - Apr 1 by BloomBlue

You left out Preston
Preston has a reputation for not checking facts, one of the reason why a number of people in the BBC were happy to see him move to ITV.
If he had any standards if would resign now after posting that before checking the facts


I think the takeaway from Peston's piece is that the government haven't been liaising with the chemical manufacturers who could increase production.

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This is a bit worrying, if predictable on 11:30 - Apr 1 with 611 viewsBrixtonBlue

This is a bit worrying, if predictable on 10:27 - Apr 1 by GlasgowBlue

I assume it’s apologies all round in this thread in light of Peston rowing back on his claim?



Apology from me for accepting what Peston posted on face value rather than checking the facts. I still think Gove is a duplicitous bastard but it seems in this occasion he was being entirely truthful.

And apology from Gordon for doing the same and starting the thread?

An apology from Callis for dreaming, or just making up, that Boris Johnson made an announcement that the government’s sole plan for dealing with this virus was herd immunity?

An apology from gorm for not just posting a heavily edited clip of BJ in order to suggest his view was letting everybody catch the virus, but then doubling down on it when he was proved by other posters that was not his view and that the clip had been edited in order to score political points?

Sorry if I’ve left anyone out.
[Post edited 1 Apr 2020 10:28]


Where did Callis say it was their sole plan? I may have missed this.

I bet Bloots will downarrow this.
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This is a bit worrying, if predictable on 13:18 - Apr 1 with 584 viewsEireannach_gorm

This is a bit worrying, if predictable on 10:27 - Apr 1 by GlasgowBlue

I assume it’s apologies all round in this thread in light of Peston rowing back on his claim?



Apology from me for accepting what Peston posted on face value rather than checking the facts. I still think Gove is a duplicitous bastard but it seems in this occasion he was being entirely truthful.

And apology from Gordon for doing the same and starting the thread?

An apology from Callis for dreaming, or just making up, that Boris Johnson made an announcement that the government’s sole plan for dealing with this virus was herd immunity?

An apology from gorm for not just posting a heavily edited clip of BJ in order to suggest his view was letting everybody catch the virus, but then doubling down on it when he was proved by other posters that was not his view and that the clip had been edited in order to score political points?

Sorry if I’ve left anyone out.
[Post edited 1 Apr 2020 10:28]


Its OK, you don't need to apologise on my behalf, I am perfectly able to do so if it is warranted. I have posted two short clips and the full interview with Boris. Nowhere did I express a 'view'. You can pop down off your high horse now and stop your own spinning.

My actual view is that the government policy was guided by experts who got it wrong. There was an about turn based on the Imperial College findings. This article seems to cover it well.

https://unherd.com/2020/03/the-scientific-case-against-herd-immunity/

As for the OP, my view is that there is a shortage of appropriate reagent kits ( There certainly is in the RoI ). This is a worldwide problem.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/coronavirus-equipment-shortag

https://qz.com/1822596/all-the-coronavirus-test-materials-in-short-supply-in-the

https://cen.acs.org/analytical-chemistry/diagnostics/Shortage-RNA-extraction-kit

Apologies accepted.
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