| Herd Immunity 08:37 - Apr 1 with 3562 views | gordon |
To clear up any misunderstanding, here was the Government's Chief Scientific Advisor trying to justify the 'herd immunity' strategy. It isn't conceivable that he was doing this without this being Government Policy.
While it obviously would have led a lot of people unnecessarily dying, and we could argue about how the individuals responsible would have been held to account for that, they changed their approach - you can't be tried for the consideration of mass murder, so that side of the discussion is moot.
But it is highly relevant to the situation we're in now - under that more laissez-faire approach, we wouldn't have been prioritising testing, it wouldn't have formed a key part of our strategy. So it's only been two weeks that we've been seriously thinking about how to expand testing capacity (since we changed tack), whereas in other countries they were working on their testing infrastructure from far earlier.
[Post edited 1 Apr 2020 8:37]
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| Herd Immunity on 09:02 - Apr 1 with 2051 views | Darth_Koont |
Is it a change of approach or that there's a balance between preventing an outbreak from spiking and trying to lessen the risk and scale of future spikes?
The government went for more extreme measures and containment largely because health services in London showed signs of being overwhelmed. But the long-term approach over a year is surely to manage exposure in the general population.
I think it's inevitable we'll go from one approach to the other dependent on resources and dependent on how well we can isolate at-risk groups.
Edit: The key here is that while herd immunity won't work on its own, neither will lockdown work on its own. They both need each other at different times to be effective. [Post edited 1 Apr 2020 9:04]
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| Herd Immunity on 09:15 - Apr 1 with 1969 views | GlasgowBlue |
| Herd Immunity on 09:02 - Apr 1 by Darth_Koont |
Is it a change of approach or that there's a balance between preventing an outbreak from spiking and trying to lessen the risk and scale of future spikes?
The government went for more extreme measures and containment largely because health services in London showed signs of being overwhelmed. But the long-term approach over a year is surely to manage exposure in the general population.
I think it's inevitable we'll go from one approach to the other dependent on resources and dependent on how well we can isolate at-risk groups.
Edit: The key here is that while herd immunity won't work on its own, neither will lockdown work on its own. They both need each other at different times to be effective. [Post edited 1 Apr 2020 9:04]
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I tried to point this out last night. It wasn’t a case of herd immunity being THE PLAN, but being a small part of the strategy which included social distancing when appropriate and not too soon. |  |
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| Herd Immunity on 09:18 - Apr 1 with 1961 views | BloomBlue |
Don't forget the WHO have said herd immunity does make sense, a vaccine is months away if the world can build up enough of the population with antibodies it makes sense it's how you do that which changed based on the data coming Italy |  | | |
| Herd Immunity on 09:22 - Apr 1 with 1931 views | Darth_Koont |
| Herd Immunity on 09:15 - Apr 1 by GlasgowBlue |
I tried to point this out last night. It wasn’t a case of herd immunity being THE PLAN, but being a small part of the strategy which included social distancing when appropriate and not too soon. |
Indeed. There are no right answers on their own until we have a vaccine-led approach. It's about making the best available decision at the right time. But even then, knowing when is the right time is still a fair amount of guesswork.
So much of this is still being understood with a fairly large spread of opinion even among the experts, based on data that would take years to unravel but is now being done on the fly. | |
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| Herd Immunity on 09:34 - Apr 1 with 1877 views | gordon |
| Herd Immunity on 09:15 - Apr 1 by GlasgowBlue |
I tried to point this out last night. It wasn’t a case of herd immunity being THE PLAN, but being a small part of the strategy which included social distancing when appropriate and not too soon. |
Not sure you understand quite understand the significance of how policy changed. The government hadn't been planning to deploy large-scale testing and contact tracing at any point in the outbreak, until about two weeks ago when they realised they had to change tack following the Imperial modelling which predicted high numbers of deaths.
Now that we've gone into some form of lockdown, we won't be able to come out of this state in any meaningful way until the infrastructure is in place to have some form of large-scale testing and effective contact tracing in place in society, accessible to everyone - and we've not been planning for this until very recently. | | | |
| Herd Immunity on 09:35 - Apr 1 with 1870 views | gordon |
| Herd Immunity on 09:18 - Apr 1 by BloomBlue |
Don't forget the WHO have said herd immunity does make sense, a vaccine is months away if the world can build up enough of the population with antibodies it makes sense it's how you do that which changed based on the data coming Italy |
Where did the WHO advocate this? | | | |
| Herd Immunity on 09:36 - Apr 1 with 1869 views | Guthrum |
| Herd Immunity on 09:18 - Apr 1 by BloomBlue |
Don't forget the WHO have said herd immunity does make sense, a vaccine is months away if the world can build up enough of the population with antibodies it makes sense it's how you do that which changed based on the data coming Italy |
The other aspect to that is the question of how well natural immunity works. There was a suggestion at one point that the natural antigens are not particularly long-lived. If you become vulnerable again after just a couple of weeks, then HI simply doesn't work.
That all seems to have been quietly forgotten, so perhaps the latest research suggests otherwise and we are liable to be ok. But I am a little concerned there's an assumption (among the non-scientists) that once we've all had it everything will be ok.
Artificial vaccines can, of course, be made hardier and longer-lasting. |  |
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| Herd Immunity on 09:39 - Apr 1 with 1865 views | BlueBadger |
| Herd Immunity on 09:18 - Apr 1 by BloomBlue |
Don't forget the WHO have said herd immunity does make sense, a vaccine is months away if the world can build up enough of the population with antibodies it makes sense it's how you do that which changed based on the data coming Italy |
It makes sense, if lots of people can be made safely immune in a short space of time by vaccinating them, not by letting them all catch it and hoping that not too many people die. |  |
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| Herd Immunity on 09:48 - Apr 1 with 1821 views | gordon |
| Herd Immunity on 09:02 - Apr 1 by Darth_Koont |
Is it a change of approach or that there's a balance between preventing an outbreak from spiking and trying to lessen the risk and scale of future spikes?
The government went for more extreme measures and containment largely because health services in London showed signs of being overwhelmed. But the long-term approach over a year is surely to manage exposure in the general population.
I think it's inevitable we'll go from one approach to the other dependent on resources and dependent on how well we can isolate at-risk groups.
Edit: The key here is that while herd immunity won't work on its own, neither will lockdown work on its own. They both need each other at different times to be effective. [Post edited 1 Apr 2020 9:04]
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The government have made clear that herd immunity isn't any part of the strategy now - of course it may be inevitable that in 6-12 months there is a much higher level of immunity in society.
But having strategy of letting loads of people die because then there will be less people left who still might die isn't that great. | | | |
| Herd Immunity on 10:09 - Apr 1 with 1768 views | homer_123 |
| Herd Immunity on 09:34 - Apr 1 by gordon |
Not sure you understand quite understand the significance of how policy changed. The government hadn't been planning to deploy large-scale testing and contact tracing at any point in the outbreak, until about two weeks ago when they realised they had to change tack following the Imperial modelling which predicted high numbers of deaths.
Now that we've gone into some form of lockdown, we won't be able to come out of this state in any meaningful way until the infrastructure is in place to have some form of large-scale testing and effective contact tracing in place in society, accessible to everyone - and we've not been planning for this until very recently. |
The situation we are in i.e. lockdown was always our end point though - the Gov was always planning to and have phased this in (as opposed to say India for example).
Herd immunity, if memory serves was the entire plan. Also, the ever changing situation meant that the Gov always need the ability to flex and change tack.
I cannot find it now but there was a website that had a number of simulations (balls) showing the relevant effects of doing nothing, something, social distancing, lockdown and how immunity works in those scenarios.
The wider question with Guthers points to we currently do not know what the Immunity situation is with Covid-19 - a few weeks back there were reports coming from China of people catching it a second time but not being contagious, for example. |  |
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| Herd Immunity on 10:16 - Apr 1 with 1748 views | gordon |
| Herd Immunity on 10:09 - Apr 1 by homer_123 |
The situation we are in i.e. lockdown was always our end point though - the Gov was always planning to and have phased this in (as opposed to say India for example).
Herd immunity, if memory serves was the entire plan. Also, the ever changing situation meant that the Gov always need the ability to flex and change tack.
I cannot find it now but there was a website that had a number of simulations (balls) showing the relevant effects of doing nothing, something, social distancing, lockdown and how immunity works in those scenarios.
The wider question with Guthers points to we currently do not know what the Immunity situation is with Covid-19 - a few weeks back there were reports coming from China of people catching it a second time but not being contagious, for example. |
No, the initial planning didn't have the expectation that we would end up in a lockdown of society - the initial strategy was that we would shield vulnerable people sucessfully form the virus, while letting the virus spread through younger people, who would then become immune and then the risk of older/vulnerable people being infected would be much reduced.
This strategy was abandoned when modelling from Imperial showed it was likely to kill far more people than had been initially assumed. | | | |
| Herd Immunity on 10:23 - Apr 1 with 1729 views | BloomBlue |
| Herd Immunity on 09:35 - Apr 1 by gordon |
Where did the WHO advocate this? |
Dr Michael Ryan said it on the Andrew Marr show. It's how the human body fights a virus, the body gets a virus and our immune system attacks and builds up antibodies that's how the human race has developed it's not vaccines which have kept using going since Neanderthal man. That's how we fight the flu, antibodies we have fight it, so the most natural thing is antibodies hence if you can build up a percentage of the population with antibodies that makes sense, but it's how you do that which is key. The other unknown part yet is how long the antibodies remain it your system
As Ryan said we could be a year away from a vaccine, the WHO wants to be 100% certain there aren't side effects to a vaccine, if your going to give a vaccine to over a billion people across the world the last thing you want is to introduce something else (side effect), hence if you can build up some anti bodies within the popualtion that will help. | | | |
| Herd Immunity on 10:24 - Apr 1 with 1723 views | BrixtonBlue |
| Herd Immunity on 09:15 - Apr 1 by GlasgowBlue |
I tried to point this out last night. It wasn’t a case of herd immunity being THE PLAN, but being a small part of the strategy which included social distancing when appropriate and not too soon. |
No-one said it was THE PLAN. That was a straw man that you built. People just said the government initially went for herd immunity, which you denied.
Funny how you were crowing "where did Boris say we were going for herd immunity" and now you're conceding it was part of the strategy. |  |
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| Herd Immunity on 10:29 - Apr 1 with 1688 views | gordon |
| Herd Immunity on 10:24 - Apr 1 by BrixtonBlue |
No-one said it was THE PLAN. That was a straw man that you built. People just said the government initially went for herd immunity, which you denied.
Funny how you were crowing "where did Boris say we were going for herd immunity" and now you're conceding it was part of the strategy. |
I don't think it's helpful to make posts personal like this - it only leads to positions becoming more entrenched and gives the impression that it's all just ammunition for personal duels. Obviously applies to others as well. | | | |
| Herd Immunity on 10:30 - Apr 1 with 1680 views | LankHenners |
| Herd Immunity on 10:16 - Apr 1 by gordon |
No, the initial planning didn't have the expectation that we would end up in a lockdown of society - the initial strategy was that we would shield vulnerable people sucessfully form the virus, while letting the virus spread through younger people, who would then become immune and then the risk of older/vulnerable people being infected would be much reduced.
This strategy was abandoned when modelling from Imperial showed it was likely to kill far more people than had been initially assumed. |
Quite.
I'm not sure there's ever been so much revisionism on a subject in such a short space of time. Plus all the wanging on about a wartime effort and a 'blitz spirit' was only going to be interpreted one way, and that's before you bring in the leaked words from a meeting in which Cummings was very brash about what he wanted to happen.
The whole government strategy seems to be one of desperately trying to claw back time they wasted when they had some element of foresight in hand. No-one would expect perfection (it can't be universally defined in unprecedented times for a start) but it's not unreasonable to point these things out. Not really sure why doing so means you're an unpatriotic political point scorer, other than the person saying so being a complete helmet. Hopefully the powers that be have now started to get everything back on the right track. |  |
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| Herd Immunity on 10:35 - Apr 1 with 1643 views | Swansea_Blue |
| Herd Immunity on 10:16 - Apr 1 by gordon |
No, the initial planning didn't have the expectation that we would end up in a lockdown of society - the initial strategy was that we would shield vulnerable people sucessfully form the virus, while letting the virus spread through younger people, who would then become immune and then the risk of older/vulnerable people being infected would be much reduced.
This strategy was abandoned when modelling from Imperial showed it was likely to kill far more people than had been initially assumed. |
I think part of the problem is that the explanations around our approach have been so muddled. On the one hand we've had the CMO talking about levels needed to each herd immunity, on the other Hancock saying it was never the plan. Yet the lack of testing and tracing and the lack of social distancing early on gave the impression it was a plan. And still they don't seem to have a consistent lock down strategy; forcing whole swathes of the population out to do unnecessary work due to insufficient financial safeguards.
And then you've got two examples recently of awfully executed attempted cover ups/lies, around the EU procurement scheme and now seemingly testing capacity. All off the back of a theatre of lies from the people in this cabinet for the last 4 years or so. So who can trust anything they say? You'd be mad to.
It's all been a bit of a Chris Greyling so far. Otherwise known as a balls up! |  |
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| Herd Immunity on 10:38 - Apr 1 with 1623 views | homer_123 |
| Herd Immunity on 10:16 - Apr 1 by gordon |
No, the initial planning didn't have the expectation that we would end up in a lockdown of society - the initial strategy was that we would shield vulnerable people sucessfully form the virus, while letting the virus spread through younger people, who would then become immune and then the risk of older/vulnerable people being infected would be much reduced.
This strategy was abandoned when modelling from Imperial showed it was likely to kill far more people than had been initially assumed. |
Anyone who thought (regardless of comms from the Gov) that we wouldn't end up with a lock down was misguided to say the least.
Without the testing levels of South Korea to effectively manage isolating the right people and enough of them - we were always going to end up here.
I believe this was always a plan, whether it was plan A in he first instance we can debate but it has always been in the Govs plans. | |
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| Herd Immunity on 10:41 - Apr 1 with 1604 views | GlasgowBlue |
| Herd Immunity on 10:24 - Apr 1 by BrixtonBlue |
No-one said it was THE PLAN. That was a straw man that you built. People just said the government initially went for herd immunity, which you denied.
Funny how you were crowing "where did Boris say we were going for herd immunity" and now you're conceding it was part of the strategy. |
I challenged Callis as to where he saw BJ announce this policy. Which he was unable to do as BJ never did.
This is what I posted in the thread
This is a bit worrying, if predictable by GlasgowBlue 31 Mar 2020 20:34What Sir Patrick Vallance actually said at the press conference was that we needed to build up some immunity whilst a vaccine was being sought. It was one part of the suppression process that. Social distancing was also talked about when it became appropriate. They stated quite clearly that this would be brought in as the virus took hold but would be counter productive to do so too early.
The way people are talking is as if they just said we are just going to let everyone catch it to build herd immunity. Of course we need to build immunity. We can't be on lock down for the next 12 to 18 months. But it was one stage in a long thought out process of dealing with this. Not THE ONLY PLAN.
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| Herd Immunity on 10:49 - Apr 1 with 1564 views | homer_123 |
OK - gone back and re-watched.
The first words he speaks are; 'The other parts of this....' - so my question is what went before? This clip indicates that when he speaks about 'herd immunity' it is not in isolation.
It implies it is part of something else. Without looking which I will do, I wonder what the longer clip and the whole interview covers?
I would say that Herd Immunity was discussed and was something the Gov had planned but it certainly was not 'the' plan in it's entirety. | |
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| Herd Immunity on 10:50 - Apr 1 with 1558 views | monytowbray |
| Herd Immunity on 10:41 - Apr 1 by GlasgowBlue |
I challenged Callis as to where he saw BJ announce this policy. Which he was unable to do as BJ never did.
This is what I posted in the thread
This is a bit worrying, if predictable by GlasgowBlue 31 Mar 2020 20:34What Sir Patrick Vallance actually said at the press conference was that we needed to build up some immunity whilst a vaccine was being sought. It was one part of the suppression process that. Social distancing was also talked about when it became appropriate. They stated quite clearly that this would be brought in as the virus took hold but would be counter productive to do so too early.
The way people are talking is as if they just said we are just going to let everyone catch it to build herd immunity. Of course we need to build immunity. We can't be on lock down for the next 12 to 18 months. But it was one stage in a long thought out process of dealing with this. Not THE ONLY PLAN.
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Was this like when you insisted for years there was no austerity in the UK too?
You are in an abusive relationship with the Conservatives. They’re gaslighting you. |  |
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| Herd Immunity on 10:55 - Apr 1 with 1530 views | Darth_Koont |
| Herd Immunity on 09:48 - Apr 1 by gordon |
The government have made clear that herd immunity isn't any part of the strategy now - of course it may be inevitable that in 6-12 months there is a much higher level of immunity in society.
But having strategy of letting loads of people die because then there will be less people left who still might die isn't that great. |
I think that's political. Developing some immunity and leveraging that will be part of any strategy so that keeps society and the economy running.
It's the speed with which people are infected (and certain at-risk groups getting caught up in that) which needs to be regulated. | |
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| Herd Immunity on 10:58 - Apr 1 with 1519 views | gordon |
| Herd Immunity on 10:41 - Apr 1 by GlasgowBlue |
I challenged Callis as to where he saw BJ announce this policy. Which he was unable to do as BJ never did.
This is what I posted in the thread
This is a bit worrying, if predictable by GlasgowBlue 31 Mar 2020 20:34What Sir Patrick Vallance actually said at the press conference was that we needed to build up some immunity whilst a vaccine was being sought. It was one part of the suppression process that. Social distancing was also talked about when it became appropriate. They stated quite clearly that this would be brought in as the virus took hold but would be counter productive to do so too early.
The way people are talking is as if they just said we are just going to let everyone catch it to build herd immunity. Of course we need to build immunity. We can't be on lock down for the next 12 to 18 months. But it was one stage in a long thought out process of dealing with this. Not THE ONLY PLAN.
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Herd immunity isn't part of suppression, it's what would happen eventually if you didn't suppress the virus. | | | |
| Herd Immunity on 11:00 - Apr 1 with 1512 views | GlasgowBlue |
| Herd Immunity on 10:50 - Apr 1 by monytowbray |
Was this like when you insisted for years there was no austerity in the UK too?
You are in an abusive relationship with the Conservatives. They’re gaslighting you. |
Have you found that announcement from Johnson yet? Tick tock. | |
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| Herd Immunity on 11:07 - Apr 1 with 1497 views | factual_blue |
| Herd Immunity on 09:48 - Apr 1 by gordon |
The government have made clear that herd immunity isn't any part of the strategy now - of course it may be inevitable that in 6-12 months there is a much higher level of immunity in society.
But having strategy of letting loads of people die because then there will be less people left who still might die isn't that great. |
Particularly when the tory demographic would be hardest hit by a herd immunity approach. |  |
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| Herd Immunity on 11:07 - Apr 1 with 1496 views | Darth_Koont |
| Herd Immunity on 10:58 - Apr 1 by gordon |
Herd immunity isn't part of suppression, it's what would happen eventually if you didn't suppress the virus. |
Eventually, yes. But there are degrees in between where the more people have been exposed and are immune the more you can limit the severity of future spikes.
It's the middle image on the right of this page.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity
The vaccine isn't coming for up to a year so the idea of lockdown as the sole tactic of suppression isn't really that manageable or indeed desirable. | |
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