| Herd Immunity 08:37 - Apr 1 with 3564 views | gordon |
To clear up any misunderstanding, here was the Government's Chief Scientific Advisor trying to justify the 'herd immunity' strategy. It isn't conceivable that he was doing this without this being Government Policy.
While it obviously would have led a lot of people unnecessarily dying, and we could argue about how the individuals responsible would have been held to account for that, they changed their approach - you can't be tried for the consideration of mass murder, so that side of the discussion is moot.
But it is highly relevant to the situation we're in now - under that more laissez-faire approach, we wouldn't have been prioritising testing, it wouldn't have formed a key part of our strategy. So it's only been two weeks that we've been seriously thinking about how to expand testing capacity (since we changed tack), whereas in other countries they were working on their testing infrastructure from far earlier.
[Post edited 1 Apr 2020 8:37]
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| Herd Immunity on 13:22 - Apr 1 with 773 views | Darth_Koont |
| Herd Immunity on 12:50 - Apr 1 by gordon |
Agree - but I think the fact that lots of people are inevitably going to get the virus doesn't really amount to herd immunity still being part of our strategy - it's just something that might happen eventually, anyway.
There was a clear break in policy - the government scientists were giving interviews and briefing about herd immunity - a lot of the wider scientific community collectively said WTF, and then the policy changed. That's a matter of public record, it isn't a conspiracy theory etc.
It doesn't really matter now, except it's important in understanding why e.g. Germany can test so many more people than us, and will be probably also be able to reduce the lockdown measures before us. Mass testing has just been part of their thinking for much longer. |
Sweden is definitely incorporating it into their strategy. The UK was one of the closest to that at the start (until it showed that it wouldn't work for London) but there's no reason to think they're not still looking at this over a longer timeframe where much of the risk and difficulties can be delayed but not removed.
Even in Sweden the "policy" has changed based on seeing when the pressure gets too great. But all countries are still talking about relaxing the lockdown when they can. What is that if not an acceptance that the general population will need to be exposed to the virus over the next year? |  |
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| Herd Immunity on 13:25 - Apr 1 with 761 views | GlasgowBlue |
| Herd Immunity on 13:01 - Apr 1 by monytowbray |
I said there was a Thursday press conference where herd immunity was the plan, you’ve played whatteraboutery demanding an exact quote from the PM whilst also admitting the case in point is correct.
To call me unhinged after that is quite a stretch.
*Inserts Frozen LET IT GO gif* |
No you didn’t. This is your exact quote.
“ They’ve not stopped telling fibs since Johnson’s first announcement of herd immunity.”
I challenged you to produce this quote which you have failed to do.
I really have nothing more to add. So don’t bother replying. |  |
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| Herd Immunity on 13:38 - Apr 1 with 739 views | gordon |
| Herd Immunity on 13:22 - Apr 1 by Darth_Koont |
Sweden is definitely incorporating it into their strategy. The UK was one of the closest to that at the start (until it showed that it wouldn't work for London) but there's no reason to think they're not still looking at this over a longer timeframe where much of the risk and difficulties can be delayed but not removed.
Even in Sweden the "policy" has changed based on seeing when the pressure gets too great. But all countries are still talking about relaxing the lockdown when they can. What is that if not an acceptance that the general population will need to be exposed to the virus over the next year? |
The issue is that we didn't anticipate a need for large-scale testing until very recently. In Germany, they started manufacturing tests in mid-January, they have supplies of everything they need, the private and public sector have been working in partnership for two months. Michael Gove started contacting relevant industries last week; some that could help have still not been asked.
And it was the herd immunity approach which prevented us from seeing the need to expand our testing capacity as some countries did - because it was an approach which didn't rely on mass testing.
It isn't really about whether herd immunity could be said to still be a policy if it's going to happen anyway, or whether it was the whole strategy or part of the strategy, or whether it was the scientists or Dominic Cummings or the Government who came up with it.
I'm not trying to put blame on anyone - this plan was drawn up based on data from a ten year old influenza model as I understand, partly because we gave too little credence to the threat of pandemics. I'm also not trying to make a political point, we might have ended up more or less here with any party in power. I'm just making the point that those responsible could have done their jobs much, much better. [Post edited 1 Apr 2020 13:44]
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| Herd Immunity on 13:43 - Apr 1 with 728 views | Darth_Koont |
| Herd Immunity on 13:17 - Apr 1 by SuperKieranMcKenna |
Exactly - relying on a vaccine is no plan, it could take years especially to produce and administer sufficient numbers,, or not at all (see HIV) the virus could further mutate etc.
Interesting 'herd immunity' is the official policy of Sweden (which is often held up as a progressive, model society by some), yet seen little criticism of their govt:
https://www.ft.com/content/31de03b8-6dbc-11ea-89df-41bea055720b |
It's not the sole policy but definitely building up the % of immunity is part of it.
They are also working from home and self-isolating just like in the UK - more because they can and that's the way society already is. But there's perhaps the insight that a too early and extreme shutdown does little to lessen future spikes. So you're trapped in a circle of extreme measures while the overall risk stays very similar. | |
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| Herd Immunity on 13:47 - Apr 1 with 713 views | gordon |
| Herd Immunity on 13:22 - Apr 1 by Darth_Koont |
Sweden is definitely incorporating it into their strategy. The UK was one of the closest to that at the start (until it showed that it wouldn't work for London) but there's no reason to think they're not still looking at this over a longer timeframe where much of the risk and difficulties can be delayed but not removed.
Even in Sweden the "policy" has changed based on seeing when the pressure gets too great. But all countries are still talking about relaxing the lockdown when they can. What is that if not an acceptance that the general population will need to be exposed to the virus over the next year? |
Sweden has a healthier population and much higher healthcare per capita spending, which will partly explain why this strategy is suited to them. God forbid if America tried it! | | | |
| Herd Immunity on 14:05 - Apr 1 with 691 views | Darth_Koont |
| Herd Immunity on 13:38 - Apr 1 by gordon |
The issue is that we didn't anticipate a need for large-scale testing until very recently. In Germany, they started manufacturing tests in mid-January, they have supplies of everything they need, the private and public sector have been working in partnership for two months. Michael Gove started contacting relevant industries last week; some that could help have still not been asked.
And it was the herd immunity approach which prevented us from seeing the need to expand our testing capacity as some countries did - because it was an approach which didn't rely on mass testing.
It isn't really about whether herd immunity could be said to still be a policy if it's going to happen anyway, or whether it was the whole strategy or part of the strategy, or whether it was the scientists or Dominic Cummings or the Government who came up with it.
I'm not trying to put blame on anyone - this plan was drawn up based on data from a ten year old influenza model as I understand, partly because we gave too little credence to the threat of pandemics. I'm also not trying to make a political point, we might have ended up more or less here with any party in power. I'm just making the point that those responsible could have done their jobs much, much better. [Post edited 1 Apr 2020 13:44]
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I'd agree that herd immunity itself as a one-stop approach would mean that we didn't need PCR testing in the wider sense but that was never suggested. Right from the start there was the idea of probably going into lockdown if and when the load got too high.
But I think you're over-egging the importance of the PCR test as an informer of policy. Large-scale testing with the PCR test isn't accurate enough or early enough (nor does it show who has been infected) to inform that much about the general population and policy. It's better than nothing and especially to help diagnose cases and screen healthcare workers. But that's slightly after the fact when it comes to policy and indeed infection.
The immunoassay tests are now where we need to put our real efforts into large-scale testing. | |
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| Herd Immunity on 14:10 - Apr 1 with 686 views | Darth_Koont |
| Herd Immunity on 13:47 - Apr 1 by gordon |
Sweden has a healthier population and much higher healthcare per capita spending, which will partly explain why this strategy is suited to them. God forbid if America tried it! |
Undoubtedly. Plus they're already following the suggested rules as much as we're following the mandated rules so little practical difference.
The main key is housing and independence. The vast majority of people can live apart and actually practice social distancing including many of the older and/or at-risk people. | |
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| Herd Immunity on 14:14 - Apr 1 with 680 views | giant_stow |
| Herd Immunity on 14:10 - Apr 1 by Darth_Koont |
Undoubtedly. Plus they're already following the suggested rules as much as we're following the mandated rules so little practical difference.
The main key is housing and independence. The vast majority of people can live apart and actually practice social distancing including many of the older and/or at-risk people. |
I read a comment made in passing somewhere that Sweden actually has less Intensive Care bed per capita than us. If true, they could be in trouble.
Why do so many of them live apart (if you know)? |  |
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| Herd Immunity on 14:26 - Apr 1 with 667 views | BloomBlue |
| Herd Immunity on 13:17 - Apr 1 by gordon |
No, I can. It's because they are doing more testing. |
But testing isn't a cure, just because you test someone doesn't mean to say they won't die from CV. Germany must be vaccination people once they prove positive in a test |  | | |
| Herd Immunity on 14:30 - Apr 1 with 661 views | Darth_Koont |
| Herd Immunity on 14:14 - Apr 1 by giant_stow |
I read a comment made in passing somewhere that Sweden actually has less Intensive Care bed per capita than us. If true, they could be in trouble.
Why do so many of them live apart (if you know)? |
Because they can. Back in the 60s they built a million houses and flats and got rid of a fair number of old, unfit housing too - would have been like building/refurbishing 7 million houses in the UK. | |
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| Herd Immunity on 14:44 - Apr 1 with 640 views | giant_stow |
| Herd Immunity on 14:30 - Apr 1 by Darth_Koont |
Because they can. Back in the 60s they built a million houses and flats and got rid of a fair number of old, unfit housing too - would have been like building/refurbishing 7 million houses in the UK. |
Fair enough and good on them. I'm just surprised so many would want that - must get lonely. | |
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| Herd Immunity on 14:49 - Apr 1 with 633 views | Darth_Koont |
| Herd Immunity on 14:44 - Apr 1 by giant_stow |
Fair enough and good on them. I'm just surprised so many would want that - must get lonely. |
You don't have to live alone.
But there are even long-term couples that still have their own flats. | |
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| Herd Immunity on 14:54 - Apr 1 with 625 views | BrixtonBlue |
| Herd Immunity on 13:25 - Apr 1 by GlasgowBlue |
No you didn’t. This is your exact quote.
“ They’ve not stopped telling fibs since Johnson’s first announcement of herd immunity.”
I challenged you to produce this quote which you have failed to do.
I really have nothing more to add. So don’t bother replying. |
You jumped on a minor point of whether Johnson literally said it or not. This is getting silly now. The main issue is whether there was a policy or not. You seemed to be denying there was by asking where Boris said it. Now in another thread you're saying it was policy, but only part of a wider policy.
This is a really strange hill to die on. |  |
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| Herd Immunity on 15:47 - Apr 1 with 603 views | monytowbray |
| Herd Immunity on 14:54 - Apr 1 by BrixtonBlue |
You jumped on a minor point of whether Johnson literally said it or not. This is getting silly now. The main issue is whether there was a policy or not. You seemed to be denying there was by asking where Boris said it. Now in another thread you're saying it was policy, but only part of a wider policy.
This is a really strange hill to die on. |
I made a slight rushed wording that Glassers is taking literal to pull a SWERVE. Classic really. He knows exactly what he’s doing. Sure he did the exact same a few years back demanding where X politician has said “austerity” which amazes me as he can pick out 2 million things Jeremy Corbyn apparently meant when he sneezed once.
Some of us post on here in between having a life so it happens :) [Post edited 1 Apr 2020 15:48]
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| Herd Immunity on 16:17 - Apr 1 with 586 views | GlasgowBlue |
| Herd Immunity on 14:54 - Apr 1 by BrixtonBlue |
You jumped on a minor point of whether Johnson literally said it or not. This is getting silly now. The main issue is whether there was a policy or not. You seemed to be denying there was by asking where Boris said it. Now in another thread you're saying it was policy, but only part of a wider policy.
This is a really strange hill to die on. |
I said it in the same fcukin thread. Fir the third time it’s here.
This is a bit worrying, if predictable by GlasgowBlue 31 Mar 2020 20:34What Sir Patrick Vallance actually said at the press conference was that we needed to build up some immunity whilst a vaccine was being sought. It was one part of the suppression process that. Social distancing was also talked about when it became appropriate. They stated quite clearly that this would be brought in as the virus took hold but would be counter productive to do so too early.
The way people are talking is as if they just said we are just going to let everyone catch it to build herd immunity. Of course we need to build immunity. We can't be on lock down for the next 12 to 18 months. But it was one stage in a long thought out process of dealing with this. Not THE ONLY PLAN.
Directly after me asking Callis for Johnson’s quote
This really isn’t very hard.
But then you showed your hand yesterday.
You’re not interested in facts. You’re locked in, bored and are looking fir a wind up. | |
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| Herd Immunity on 16:23 - Apr 1 with 582 views | monytowbray |
| Herd Immunity on 16:17 - Apr 1 by GlasgowBlue |
I said it in the same fcukin thread. Fir the third time it’s here.
This is a bit worrying, if predictable by GlasgowBlue 31 Mar 2020 20:34What Sir Patrick Vallance actually said at the press conference was that we needed to build up some immunity whilst a vaccine was being sought. It was one part of the suppression process that. Social distancing was also talked about when it became appropriate. They stated quite clearly that this would be brought in as the virus took hold but would be counter productive to do so too early.
The way people are talking is as if they just said we are just going to let everyone catch it to build herd immunity. Of course we need to build immunity. We can't be on lock down for the next 12 to 18 months. But it was one stage in a long thought out process of dealing with this. Not THE ONLY PLAN.
Directly after me asking Callis for Johnson’s quote
This really isn’t very hard.
But then you showed your hand yesterday.
You’re not interested in facts. You’re locked in, bored and are looking fir a wind up. |
I only see one person getting wound up or winding up here, and it’s the person who has already conceded to the point but is carrying on.
It’s mildly amusing how you are taking a poor cover up of the biggest botched short term plan in recent history of our nation’s governance as truth though. Are we still waiting for that Summer peak because they modelled on the wrong virus despite better data being available? [Post edited 1 Apr 2020 16:31]
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| Herd Immunity on 16:25 - Apr 1 with 579 views | Lord_Lucan |
| Herd Immunity on 16:17 - Apr 1 by GlasgowBlue |
I said it in the same fcukin thread. Fir the third time it’s here.
This is a bit worrying, if predictable by GlasgowBlue 31 Mar 2020 20:34What Sir Patrick Vallance actually said at the press conference was that we needed to build up some immunity whilst a vaccine was being sought. It was one part of the suppression process that. Social distancing was also talked about when it became appropriate. They stated quite clearly that this would be brought in as the virus took hold but would be counter productive to do so too early.
The way people are talking is as if they just said we are just going to let everyone catch it to build herd immunity. Of course we need to build immunity. We can't be on lock down for the next 12 to 18 months. But it was one stage in a long thought out process of dealing with this. Not THE ONLY PLAN.
Directly after me asking Callis for Johnson’s quote
This really isn’t very hard.
But then you showed your hand yesterday.
You’re not interested in facts. You’re locked in, bored and are looking fir a wind up. |
Lucan Top Tip.
Don't waste your time or energy. |  |
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| Herd Immunity on 16:26 - Apr 1 with 578 views | monytowbray |
| Herd Immunity on 16:25 - Apr 1 by Lord_Lucan |
Lucan Top Tip.
Don't waste your time or energy. |
It is a waste when he’s already said that I was correct. | |
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| Herd Immunity on 16:44 - Apr 1 with 553 views | BrixtonBlue |
| Herd Immunity on 16:17 - Apr 1 by GlasgowBlue |
I said it in the same fcukin thread. Fir the third time it’s here.
This is a bit worrying, if predictable by GlasgowBlue 31 Mar 2020 20:34What Sir Patrick Vallance actually said at the press conference was that we needed to build up some immunity whilst a vaccine was being sought. It was one part of the suppression process that. Social distancing was also talked about when it became appropriate. They stated quite clearly that this would be brought in as the virus took hold but would be counter productive to do so too early.
The way people are talking is as if they just said we are just going to let everyone catch it to build herd immunity. Of course we need to build immunity. We can't be on lock down for the next 12 to 18 months. But it was one stage in a long thought out process of dealing with this. Not THE ONLY PLAN.
Directly after me asking Callis for Johnson’s quote
This really isn’t very hard.
But then you showed your hand yesterday.
You’re not interested in facts. You’re locked in, bored and are looking fir a wind up. |
Re-linking to your wrongness doesn't make it any less wrong.
Stop banging on about what Boris said. No-one cares, it's irrelevant.
The issue is whether it was herd immunity or not. Don't get angry and sweary just because people can see through your obvious diversion tactic. | |
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| Herd Immunity on 17:11 - Apr 1 with 547 views | monytowbray |
| Herd Immunity on 16:44 - Apr 1 by BrixtonBlue |
Re-linking to your wrongness doesn't make it any less wrong.
Stop banging on about what Boris said. No-one cares, it's irrelevant.
The issue is whether it was herd immunity or not. Don't get angry and sweary just because people can see through your obvious diversion tactic. |
His obvious diversion tactic has been screaming “political point scoring” for 3 weeks, as an easy way to shut down the fact he spent decades voting for the very policies that left Britain with an NHS that could very much struggle in the coming weeks and allowed children to go without food. If you can paint the person who’s been concerned about this stuff for years as having an agenda you can successfully convince others they’re irrational and horrible.
Funny how those who voted for things that divided us suddenly want everyone to come together and support each other now they’re also thrown in the boat full of holes, but have hidden the drill they were using and denied the existence of such a tool to begin with.
Spent too long in my life dealing with dishonesty and manipulation, I can see through it from a mile off. [Post edited 1 Apr 2020 17:13]
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| Herd Immunity on 17:13 - Apr 1 with 534 views | Ewan_Oozami |
| Herd Immunity on 14:49 - Apr 1 by Darth_Koont |
You don't have to live alone.
But there are even long-term couples that still have their own flats. |
Yep, I think there was a stat the other day which said over 50% of households in Sweden are single-person occupancy |  |
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| Herd Immunity on 17:18 - Apr 1 with 520 views | NewcyBlue |
| Herd Immunity on 17:11 - Apr 1 by monytowbray |
His obvious diversion tactic has been screaming “political point scoring” for 3 weeks, as an easy way to shut down the fact he spent decades voting for the very policies that left Britain with an NHS that could very much struggle in the coming weeks and allowed children to go without food. If you can paint the person who’s been concerned about this stuff for years as having an agenda you can successfully convince others they’re irrational and horrible.
Funny how those who voted for things that divided us suddenly want everyone to come together and support each other now they’re also thrown in the boat full of holes, but have hidden the drill they were using and denied the existence of such a tool to begin with.
Spent too long in my life dealing with dishonesty and manipulation, I can see through it from a mile off. [Post edited 1 Apr 2020 17:13]
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I haven’t spent years voting for stuff that has divided us, but I do want us all to come together and pull through this.
This isn’t a political battle any more. It’s life and death for people.
The politics can come at the end. When we can really hold those to account. Until then we need to do better in our communities.
I saw a fantastic thing on the internet. Somebody told their neighbour to put in their window a green card up if all is ok, Orange if they need something, red for an emergency.
I have since visited my elderly neighbours with appropriate coloured cards to implement this. Obviously posted it through the letter box with a note explaining. Green cards are up where I have posted them.
I’ve been for a cycle ride today and seen similar down other streets. |  |
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| Herd Immunity on 17:38 - Apr 1 with 501 views | monytowbray |
| Herd Immunity on 17:18 - Apr 1 by NewcyBlue |
I haven’t spent years voting for stuff that has divided us, but I do want us all to come together and pull through this.
This isn’t a political battle any more. It’s life and death for people.
The politics can come at the end. When we can really hold those to account. Until then we need to do better in our communities.
I saw a fantastic thing on the internet. Somebody told their neighbour to put in their window a green card up if all is ok, Orange if they need something, red for an emergency.
I have since visited my elderly neighbours with appropriate coloured cards to implement this. Obviously posted it through the letter box with a note explaining. Green cards are up where I have posted them.
I’ve been for a cycle ride today and seen similar down other streets. |
If politics doesn't change after this though, then we get more of the same, if not worse (which is more likely).]
If people refuse to see this as the wake up call it is and instead rebuttal points with nothing more than accusations of political point scoring, we'll certainly get more of the same.
Our political system and how this country is ran has been live or death for too many people for far too long. | |
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