| Herd Immunity 08:37 - Apr 1 with 3567 views | gordon |
To clear up any misunderstanding, here was the Government's Chief Scientific Advisor trying to justify the 'herd immunity' strategy. It isn't conceivable that he was doing this without this being Government Policy.
While it obviously would have led a lot of people unnecessarily dying, and we could argue about how the individuals responsible would have been held to account for that, they changed their approach - you can't be tried for the consideration of mass murder, so that side of the discussion is moot.
But it is highly relevant to the situation we're in now - under that more laissez-faire approach, we wouldn't have been prioritising testing, it wouldn't have formed a key part of our strategy. So it's only been two weeks that we've been seriously thinking about how to expand testing capacity (since we changed tack), whereas in other countries they were working on their testing infrastructure from far earlier.
[Post edited 1 Apr 2020 8:37]
|  | | |  |
| Herd Immunity on 11:24 - Apr 1 with 646 views | monytowbray |
| Herd Immunity on 11:00 - Apr 1 by GlasgowBlue |
Have you found that announcement from Johnson yet? Tick tock. |
“There is no Austerity” - Glassers 2015
“Herd immunity was never the plan” - Glassers 2020 |  |
| |
| Herd Immunity on 11:30 - Apr 1 with 628 views | Swansea_Blue |
| Herd Immunity on 11:24 - Apr 1 by monytowbray |
“There is no Austerity” - Glassers 2015
“Herd immunity was never the plan” - Glassers 2020 |
*fetches popcorn* |  |
| |
| Herd Immunity on 11:32 - Apr 1 with 626 views | GlasgowBlue |
| Herd Immunity on 11:24 - Apr 1 by monytowbray |
“There is no Austerity” - Glassers 2015
“Herd immunity was never the plan” - Glassers 2020 |
So you can’t link me to a clip of “Johnson’s first announcement of herd immunity" ? Because you made it up.
You’ve been a disgrace during this crisis Callis. An utter disgrace. Lying, and fabricating quotes to score political points. Calling into question the integrity of the CMO and CSA because they are on the government payroll. |  |
| |
| Herd Immunity on 11:33 - Apr 1 with 618 views | BrixtonBlue |
| Herd Immunity on 10:29 - Apr 1 by gordon |
I don't think it's helpful to make posts personal like this - it only leads to positions becoming more entrenched and gives the impression that it's all just ammunition for personal duels. Obviously applies to others as well. |
I take you point, just seems a bit unfair Glassers can make up stuff and get away with it if not challenged. |  |
| |
| Herd Immunity on 11:38 - Apr 1 with 603 views | Darth_Koont |
| Herd Immunity on 11:24 - Apr 1 by monytowbray |
“There is no Austerity” - Glassers 2015
“Herd immunity was never the plan” - Glassers 2020 |
I'd be wary about over-analyzing the government's plan and certainly the statements it has made.
The plan needs to be nuanced and respond to the data. Meanwhile their role as a public information provider needs to remove as much nuance as possible to prevent misinformation and panic as well as nudge the general public in the right direction at the right time.
I certainly think we can criticize the government for a general and underlying lack of preparedness whatever approach or combination of approaches they're taking. But re: the response to Covid-19, this is a long way away from careless disregard for facts, figures and thus any coherent or reasoned plan that was coming from Trump's administration, for example. |  |
| |
| Herd Immunity on 11:38 - Apr 1 with 603 views | BrixtonBlue |
| Herd Immunity on 10:41 - Apr 1 by GlasgowBlue |
I challenged Callis as to where he saw BJ announce this policy. Which he was unable to do as BJ never did.
This is what I posted in the thread
This is a bit worrying, if predictable by GlasgowBlue 31 Mar 2020 20:34What Sir Patrick Vallance actually said at the press conference was that we needed to build up some immunity whilst a vaccine was being sought. It was one part of the suppression process that. Social distancing was also talked about when it became appropriate. They stated quite clearly that this would be brought in as the virus took hold but would be counter productive to do so too early.
The way people are talking is as if they just said we are just going to let everyone catch it to build herd immunity. Of course we need to build immunity. We can't be on lock down for the next 12 to 18 months. But it was one stage in a long thought out process of dealing with this. Not THE ONLY PLAN.
|
You're doing that politician trick of avoiding the point again.
I know what you challenged Callis on. Whether ha can find a link of Boris saying it was herd immunity or not is irrelevant. It was the policy as everyone clearly saw.
Now you've admitted it was... but are saying what you were saying it wasn't THE PLAN. No-one said it was.
Duplicitous as always. | |
| |
| Herd Immunity on 11:40 - Apr 1 with 593 views | BrixtonBlue |
| Herd Immunity on 10:49 - Apr 1 by homer_123 |
OK - gone back and re-watched.
The first words he speaks are; 'The other parts of this....' - so my question is what went before? This clip indicates that when he speaks about 'herd immunity' it is not in isolation.
It implies it is part of something else. Without looking which I will do, I wonder what the longer clip and the whole interview covers?
I would say that Herd Immunity was discussed and was something the Gov had planned but it certainly was not 'the' plan in it's entirety. |
Again, nobody said it was 'the' plan in its entirety.
They just said it was a strategy, which it was. | |
| |
| Herd Immunity on 11:42 - Apr 1 with 589 views | gordon |
| Herd Immunity on 11:33 - Apr 1 by BrixtonBlue |
I take you point, just seems a bit unfair Glassers can make up stuff and get away with it if not challenged. |
There's a lack of comprehension amongst some posters about what the government meant when they were talking about herd immunity, but I just don't think anywhere useful with the personal stuff - your adversary is more or less just as bad, but I don't see how that is reasonable justification for your approach. | | | |
Login to get fewer ads
| Herd Immunity on 11:43 - Apr 1 with 586 views | BrixtonBlue |
| Herd Immunity on 11:00 - Apr 1 by GlasgowBlue |
Have you found that announcement from Johnson yet? Tick tock. |
Are you really saying in one thread that herd immunity wasn't a thing while simultaneously in another thread saying it was?!
How odd. | |
| |
| Herd Immunity on 11:46 - Apr 1 with 577 views | gordon |
| Herd Immunity on 11:07 - Apr 1 by Darth_Koont |
Eventually, yes. But there are degrees in between where the more people have been exposed and are immune the more you can limit the severity of future spikes.
It's the middle image on the right of this page.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity
The vaccine isn't coming for up to a year so the idea of lockdown as the sole tactic of suppression isn't really that manageable or indeed desirable. |
I'm not saying it is, it isn't really a strategy at all, it just slows down the virus.
The strategy that has been proven reasonably effective in dealing with COVID is rolling out large-scale, regular testing of the population, with near immediate results, so individuals can isolate quickly. That's what has been shown to work, and is a standard approach to disease outbreaks. [Post edited 1 Apr 2020 11:54]
| | | |
| Herd Immunity on 11:48 - Apr 1 with 567 views | gordon |
| Herd Immunity on 11:00 - Apr 1 by GlasgowBlue |
Have you found that announcement from Johnson yet? Tick tock. |
This is the kind of post that I think you'd both be better off not bothering with. | | | |
| Herd Immunity on 11:48 - Apr 1 with 566 views | BrixtonBlue |
| Herd Immunity on 11:42 - Apr 1 by gordon |
There's a lack of comprehension amongst some posters about what the government meant when they were talking about herd immunity, but I just don't think anywhere useful with the personal stuff - your adversary is more or less just as bad, but I don't see how that is reasonable justification for your approach. |
Again, I'd broadly agree with you. But if we get to a point where we can't challenge the government, or their apologists, that's a very dangerous route to go down. | |
| |
| Herd Immunity on 11:56 - Apr 1 with 536 views | Freddies_Ears |
| Herd Immunity on 10:09 - Apr 1 by homer_123 |
The situation we are in i.e. lockdown was always our end point though - the Gov was always planning to and have phased this in (as opposed to say India for example).
Herd immunity, if memory serves was the entire plan. Also, the ever changing situation meant that the Gov always need the ability to flex and change tack.
I cannot find it now but there was a website that had a number of simulations (balls) showing the relevant effects of doing nothing, something, social distancing, lockdown and how immunity works in those scenarios.
The wider question with Guthers points to we currently do not know what the Immunity situation is with Covid-19 - a few weeks back there were reports coming from China of people catching it a second time but not being contagious, for example. |
WHO have been massively critical of UK for being so slow to isolate. In the end we only did it because EU threatened to close the borders (to protect themselves). Remember that weird week when Ireland was requiring isolation but NI wasnt...
It looks like we are guilty at a minimum of appalling management, having no /an inadequate contingency plan. It doesn't help when govt spokespeople incl the PM deliberately lie, and don't care or apologise when the lie is unearthed (so many examples, but Gove yesterday re testing chemicals - exposed by Peston within hours, and BJ re "missing an email" inviting us to be part of an EU-wide materials procurement, when we had actually attended several meetings where it was discussed, and his own Health Sec had said publicly that we were aware of it.
Final bit of my rant - we are not in lockdown, we're simply requiring many ( but by no means all) people to self-isolate. There are still a couple of additional stages we could go through before it could be called a lockdown. |  | | |
| Herd Immunity on 11:57 - Apr 1 with 532 views | Darth_Koont |
| Herd Immunity on 11:46 - Apr 1 by gordon |
I'm not saying it is, it isn't really a strategy at all, it just slows down the virus.
The strategy that has been proven reasonably effective in dealing with COVID is rolling out large-scale, regular testing of the population, with near immediate results, so individuals can isolate quickly. That's what has been shown to work, and is a standard approach to disease outbreaks. [Post edited 1 Apr 2020 11:54]
|
Agreed.
Although it was the accompanying lockdowns that really restricted the spread. PCR testing is relatively limited at tracking the population as a whole. That's where the immunoassay testing can help and the antigen test in particular, from what I understand, as it shows quicker and much more accurately if someone has got the virus.
Increased and better testing will be the way forward and help us manage the timing and location of lockdowns and protection of at-risk groups in the future.
But that will involve introducing the general population to the virus and not going for total suppression as a policy on its own. | |
| |
| Herd Immunity on 12:22 - Apr 1 with 511 views | J2BLUE |
| Herd Immunity on 11:24 - Apr 1 by monytowbray |
“There is no Austerity” - Glassers 2015
“Herd immunity was never the plan” - Glassers 2020 |
"I've never really liked cheese and Norwich are actually quite a good club" - Glassers 2025 |  |
| |
| Herd Immunity on 12:37 - Apr 1 with 500 views | GlasgowBlue |
| Herd Immunity on 11:24 - Apr 1 by monytowbray |
“There is no Austerity” - Glassers 2015
“Herd immunity was never the plan” - Glassers 2020 |
Are you incapable of ever telling the truth.
I didn’t say that herd immunity wasn’t part of the plan.I said that herd immunity was only one part of the strategy. Look it’s right three in b & w.
This is a bit worrying, if predictable by GlasgowBlue 31 Mar 2020 20:34What Sir Patrick Vallance actually said at the press conference was that we needed to build up some immunity whilst a vaccine was being sought. It was one part of the suppression process that. Social distancing was also talked about when it became appropriate. They stated quite clearly that this would be brought in as the virus took hold but would be counter productive to do so too early.
The way people are talking is as if they just said we are just going to let everyone catch it to build herd immunity. Of course we need to build immunity. We can't be on lock down for the next 12 to 18 months. But it was one stage in a long thought out process of dealing with this. Not THE ONLY PLAN.
What I actually challenged you on was that BJ never announced this.
Re austerity. I think you may be attributing one of Chico’s quotes to me, I’ve said there was austerity. I’ve also said that there would have been austerity no matter which party had won the 2010 election and I often quote this from Alistair Darling to back up that point.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/mar/25/alistair-darling-cut-deeper-mar
So I can hardly in the one hand say there is no austerity whilst on the other saying there is austerity, but there would have been austerity no matter who had been in government.
What I have also said is that that Labour’s Denis Healy cut more in one year than George Osborne did in his entire term as Chancellor, which is real austerity with no ring fencing of foreign aid or the NHS and that had Isborne done the same it would have been harder but over quicker.
Now stop telling lies Callis. | |
| |
| Herd Immunity on 12:43 - Apr 1 with 494 views | monytowbray |
| Herd Immunity on 12:37 - Apr 1 by GlasgowBlue |
Are you incapable of ever telling the truth.
I didn’t say that herd immunity wasn’t part of the plan.I said that herd immunity was only one part of the strategy. Look it’s right three in b & w.
This is a bit worrying, if predictable by GlasgowBlue 31 Mar 2020 20:34What Sir Patrick Vallance actually said at the press conference was that we needed to build up some immunity whilst a vaccine was being sought. It was one part of the suppression process that. Social distancing was also talked about when it became appropriate. They stated quite clearly that this would be brought in as the virus took hold but would be counter productive to do so too early.
The way people are talking is as if they just said we are just going to let everyone catch it to build herd immunity. Of course we need to build immunity. We can't be on lock down for the next 12 to 18 months. But it was one stage in a long thought out process of dealing with this. Not THE ONLY PLAN.
What I actually challenged you on was that BJ never announced this.
Re austerity. I think you may be attributing one of Chico’s quotes to me, I’ve said there was austerity. I’ve also said that there would have been austerity no matter which party had won the 2010 election and I often quote this from Alistair Darling to back up that point.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/mar/25/alistair-darling-cut-deeper-mar
So I can hardly in the one hand say there is no austerity whilst on the other saying there is austerity, but there would have been austerity no matter who had been in government.
What I have also said is that that Labour’s Denis Healy cut more in one year than George Osborne did in his entire term as Chancellor, which is real austerity with no ring fencing of foreign aid or the NHS and that had Isborne done the same it would have been harder but over quicker.
Now stop telling lies Callis. |
You challenged me on whatteraboutery by looking for a specific quote to dodge the fact our approach was indeed initially herd immunity.
Classic Glassers, adds context when not there but removes it when it is to suit. Last week you were saying LISTEN TO THE SCIENTISTS, now you want to listen to Johnson. Which one is it?
Almost as if the entire party and government is bonded together or something... | |
| |
| Herd Immunity on 12:48 - Apr 1 with 490 views | GlasgowBlue |
| Herd Immunity on 12:43 - Apr 1 by monytowbray |
You challenged me on whatteraboutery by looking for a specific quote to dodge the fact our approach was indeed initially herd immunity.
Classic Glassers, adds context when not there but removes it when it is to suit. Last week you were saying LISTEN TO THE SCIENTISTS, now you want to listen to Johnson. Which one is it?
Almost as if the entire party and government is bonded together or something... |
There is absolutely no point in trying to debate with you. You quoted Boris Johnson, I challenged you for the quote. No more and no less.
You’ve thrown two completely made up quotes from me and have made no attempt to defend those lies when challenged.
I seriously suggest you get out for some sunlight, exercise and fresh air because you are completely unhinged at the moment. You have proven why the CMO felt people shouldn’t go into lockdown too early.
I’m seriously done with you. [Post edited 1 Apr 2020 12:49]
| |
| |
| Herd Immunity on 12:50 - Apr 1 with 479 views | gordon |
| Herd Immunity on 11:57 - Apr 1 by Darth_Koont |
Agreed.
Although it was the accompanying lockdowns that really restricted the spread. PCR testing is relatively limited at tracking the population as a whole. That's where the immunoassay testing can help and the antigen test in particular, from what I understand, as it shows quicker and much more accurately if someone has got the virus.
Increased and better testing will be the way forward and help us manage the timing and location of lockdowns and protection of at-risk groups in the future.
But that will involve introducing the general population to the virus and not going for total suppression as a policy on its own. |
Agree - but I think the fact that lots of people are inevitably going to get the virus doesn't really amount to herd immunity still being part of our strategy - it's just something that might happen eventually, anyway.
There was a clear break in policy - the government scientists were giving interviews and briefing about herd immunity - a lot of the wider scientific community collectively said WTF, and then the policy changed. That's a matter of public record, it isn't a conspiracy theory etc.
It doesn't really matter now, except it's important in understanding why e.g. Germany can test so many more people than us, and will be probably also be able to reduce the lockdown measures before us. Mass testing has just been part of their thinking for much longer. | | | |
| Herd Immunity on 13:01 - Apr 1 with 461 views | monytowbray |
| Herd Immunity on 12:48 - Apr 1 by GlasgowBlue |
There is absolutely no point in trying to debate with you. You quoted Boris Johnson, I challenged you for the quote. No more and no less.
You’ve thrown two completely made up quotes from me and have made no attempt to defend those lies when challenged.
I seriously suggest you get out for some sunlight, exercise and fresh air because you are completely unhinged at the moment. You have proven why the CMO felt people shouldn’t go into lockdown too early.
I’m seriously done with you. [Post edited 1 Apr 2020 12:49]
|
I said there was a Thursday press conference where herd immunity was the plan, you’ve played whatteraboutery demanding an exact quote from the PM whilst also admitting the case in point is correct.
To call me unhinged after that is quite a stretch.
*Inserts Frozen LET IT GO gif* | |
| |
| Herd Immunity on 13:11 - Apr 1 with 447 views | gordon |
| Herd Immunity on 12:50 - Apr 1 by gordon |
Agree - but I think the fact that lots of people are inevitably going to get the virus doesn't really amount to herd immunity still being part of our strategy - it's just something that might happen eventually, anyway.
There was a clear break in policy - the government scientists were giving interviews and briefing about herd immunity - a lot of the wider scientific community collectively said WTF, and then the policy changed. That's a matter of public record, it isn't a conspiracy theory etc.
It doesn't really matter now, except it's important in understanding why e.g. Germany can test so many more people than us, and will be probably also be able to reduce the lockdown measures before us. Mass testing has just been part of their thinking for much longer. |
Even Kuenssberg is almost making this point, in her vague but terse, four words per paragraph, sort of way.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-52118781?at_custom3=%40BBCPolitics&at_cus | | | |
| Herd Immunity on 13:14 - Apr 1 with 433 views | BloomBlue |
| Herd Immunity on 12:50 - Apr 1 by gordon |
Agree - but I think the fact that lots of people are inevitably going to get the virus doesn't really amount to herd immunity still being part of our strategy - it's just something that might happen eventually, anyway.
There was a clear break in policy - the government scientists were giving interviews and briefing about herd immunity - a lot of the wider scientific community collectively said WTF, and then the policy changed. That's a matter of public record, it isn't a conspiracy theory etc.
It doesn't really matter now, except it's important in understanding why e.g. Germany can test so many more people than us, and will be probably also be able to reduce the lockdown measures before us. Mass testing has just been part of their thinking for much longer. |
The main thing from Germany is more about why is their death rate so low, it seems nobody an answer that yet |  | | |
| Herd Immunity on 13:16 - Apr 1 with 431 views | eireblue |
| Herd Immunity on 11:32 - Apr 1 by GlasgowBlue |
So you can’t link me to a clip of “Johnson’s first announcement of herd immunity" ? Because you made it up.
You’ve been a disgrace during this crisis Callis. An utter disgrace. Lying, and fabricating quotes to score political points. Calling into question the integrity of the CMO and CSA because they are on the government payroll. |
I think that is a bit harsh.
You posted the SAGE advice.
The recommendation was that all decisions and reasoning about government actions, should be clear, and they specifically referenced, why the UK would take a different set of actions to other countries.
They also made it clear that when, and how severe, lockdowns should take place, were political decisions.
Callis, a few weeks ago, seemed to me to be questioning why, based on what was happening in other countries, 5he UK was doing some5hing different,
This was at a time Boris was being Boris, and the term her immunity was being used.
I think it reasonable for people to show concern.
I haven’t seen a clear reason, expressed by the government why the UK took a different approach to other countries, and the reasoning behind those decisions.
I haven’t read all the threads that Callis and others participated in at the time. Maybe you could repost the government rational on why they had a different approach, or did people keep asserting that the government people should just be trusted, e.g. an appeal to authority. |  | | |
| Herd Immunity on 13:17 - Apr 1 with 428 views | gordon |
| Herd Immunity on 13:14 - Apr 1 by BloomBlue |
The main thing from Germany is more about why is their death rate so low, it seems nobody an answer that yet |
No, I can. It's because they are doing more testing. | | | |
| Herd Immunity on 13:17 - Apr 1 with 427 views | SuperKieranMcKenna |
| Herd Immunity on 11:07 - Apr 1 by Darth_Koont |
Eventually, yes. But there are degrees in between where the more people have been exposed and are immune the more you can limit the severity of future spikes.
It's the middle image on the right of this page.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity
The vaccine isn't coming for up to a year so the idea of lockdown as the sole tactic of suppression isn't really that manageable or indeed desirable. |
Exactly - relying on a vaccine is no plan, it could take years especially to produce and administer sufficient numbers,, or not at all (see HIV) the virus could further mutate etc.
Interesting 'herd immunity' is the official policy of Sweden (which is often held up as a progressive, model society by some), yet seen little criticism of their govt:
https://www.ft.com/content/31de03b8-6dbc-11ea-89df-41bea055720b | | | |
| |
By continuing to use the site, you agree to our use of cookies and to abide by our Terms and Conditions.
