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Current Lockdown until end of May at the earliest 13:20 - Apr 4 with 2773 viewsElderGrizzly

And that is only if:
- we ramp up testing to levels seen in South Korea/Singapore
- everyone obeys the existing lockdown

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Current Lockdown until end of May at the earliest on 13:23 - Apr 4 with 2426 viewsEdmundo

Are you the Chief Medical Officer? Thought not. Jog on.

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Current Lockdown until end of May at the earliest on 13:26 - Apr 4 with 2413 viewsWeWereZombies

Current Lockdown until end of May at the earliest on 13:23 - Apr 4 by Edmundo

Are you the Chief Medical Officer? Thought not. Jog on.


Sorry, not the Chief Medical Officer, but a leading adviser to the Government, was on BBC Radio Four this morning saying this.

[edit] More details

'Prof Ferguson, of Imperial College London, told BBC Radio 4's Today programme the epidemic was expected to plateau in the next week to 10 days, but that the public's behaviour was crucial for determining what happens next.

He said - providing people follow guidelines - he was "hopeful" that some of the intensive social distancing measures could be substituted for rapid testing and contact tracing in a few weeks' time, once case numbers are lower.

"We want to move to a situation where, at least by the end of May, we are able to substitute some less intensive measures for the lockdown," he said.'

From: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52162490
[Post edited 4 Apr 2020 13:31]

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Current Lockdown until end of May at the earliest on 13:30 - Apr 4 with 2378 viewsElderGrizzly

Current Lockdown until end of May at the earliest on 13:26 - Apr 4 by WeWereZombies

Sorry, not the Chief Medical Officer, but a leading adviser to the Government, was on BBC Radio Four this morning saying this.

[edit] More details

'Prof Ferguson, of Imperial College London, told BBC Radio 4's Today programme the epidemic was expected to plateau in the next week to 10 days, but that the public's behaviour was crucial for determining what happens next.

He said - providing people follow guidelines - he was "hopeful" that some of the intensive social distancing measures could be substituted for rapid testing and contact tracing in a few weeks' time, once case numbers are lower.

"We want to move to a situation where, at least by the end of May, we are able to substitute some less intensive measures for the lockdown," he said.'

From: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52162490
[Post edited 4 Apr 2020 13:31]


Damn that Chief Medical Officer and his facts...🙄
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Current Lockdown until end of May at the earliest on 13:30 - Apr 4 with 2382 viewsBlueBadger

Current Lockdown until end of May at the earliest on 13:23 - Apr 4 by Edmundo

Are you the Chief Medical Officer? Thought not. Jog on.


It's in several reliable news sources.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/apr/04/uk-coronavirus-live-saturday-

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Current Lockdown until end of May at the earliest on 13:32 - Apr 4 with 2361 viewsStokieBlue

Current Lockdown until end of May at the earliest on 13:26 - Apr 4 by WeWereZombies

Sorry, not the Chief Medical Officer, but a leading adviser to the Government, was on BBC Radio Four this morning saying this.

[edit] More details

'Prof Ferguson, of Imperial College London, told BBC Radio 4's Today programme the epidemic was expected to plateau in the next week to 10 days, but that the public's behaviour was crucial for determining what happens next.

He said - providing people follow guidelines - he was "hopeful" that some of the intensive social distancing measures could be substituted for rapid testing and contact tracing in a few weeks' time, once case numbers are lower.

"We want to move to a situation where, at least by the end of May, we are able to substitute some less intensive measures for the lockdown," he said.'

From: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52162490
[Post edited 4 Apr 2020 13:31]


Seems sensible although he's 2nd and 3rd paragraphs say totally different things.

End of May is looking likely.

SB

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Current Lockdown until end of May at the earliest on 13:41 - Apr 4 with 2317 viewsDarth_Koont

I think we'll have to wait and see on that. Lots of variables there. Not least that the new types of test gives vastly different options compared to what South Korea and Singapore could do with their more localised outbreaks and PCR testing.

We also need to be talking about local lockdown and responses as what's right for London and major population centres isn't perhaps right for smaller towns and rural areas. And vice versa.

Same goes for at-risk groups.

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Current Lockdown until end of May at the earliest on 13:45 - Apr 4 with 2311 viewsHerbivore

I was expecting end of May at the earliest so if they can get things in place to make that possible I'd take that.

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Current Lockdown until end of May at the earliest on 14:00 - Apr 4 with 2267 viewsBlueBadger

Current Lockdown until end of May at the earliest on 13:45 - Apr 4 by Herbivore

I was expecting end of May at the earliest so if they can get things in place to make that possible I'd take that.


Personally, I wouldn't be surprised if it was easing, rather than a full-on lift. I suspect the pubs, restaurants and major public spaces will stay off-limits for longer.

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Current Lockdown until end of May at the earliest on 14:17 - Apr 4 with 2219 viewsfactual_blue

Current Lockdown until end of May at the earliest on 13:30 - Apr 4 by BlueBadger

It's in several reliable news sources.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/apr/04/uk-coronavirus-live-saturday-


Has Some Bloke tweeted it though?

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Current Lockdown until end of May at the earliest on 14:34 - Apr 4 with 2173 viewssolemio

Current Lockdown until end of May at the earliest on 13:45 - Apr 4 by Herbivore

I was expecting end of May at the earliest so if they can get things in place to make that possible I'd take that.


For various reasons I'm surprised to learn that you are pregnant.
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Current Lockdown until end of May at the earliest on 15:11 - Apr 4 with 2097 viewsfactual_blue

Current Lockdown until end of May at the earliest on 14:34 - Apr 4 by solemio

For various reasons I'm surprised to learn that you are pregnant.


Is one of those reasons that you've had a vasectomy?

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Current Lockdown until end of May at the earliest on 15:19 - Apr 4 with 2065 viewsPinewoodblue

Current Lockdown until end of May at the earliest on 13:41 - Apr 4 by Darth_Koont

I think we'll have to wait and see on that. Lots of variables there. Not least that the new types of test gives vastly different options compared to what South Korea and Singapore could do with their more localised outbreaks and PCR testing.

We also need to be talking about local lockdown and responses as what's right for London and major population centres isn't perhaps right for smaller towns and rural areas. And vice versa.

Same goes for at-risk groups.


Agree with regards variables. Had a quick look at confirmed cases in Suffolk and compared to Croydon ( population slightly more than half that of Suffolk) there are three times as many confirmed cases in Croydon compared to Suffolk. So six times as many confirmed cases in Croydon if you take into account the difference in population.

Why? Have they tested more people in Croydon? Does the size of the area make a difference, fewer people per square mile? Or is it just that Croydon is further down the road than Suffolk.

Let’s leave it to the experts. Not an individual expert whose opinions are based on assumptions with regards to how people have had the virus and not been reported.

Think all he is actually saying is if the tests to show how many people have had meet his estimation we can ease off on restrictions end of May.

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Current Lockdown until end of May at the earliest on 15:20 - Apr 4 with 2062 viewsnoggin

Current Lockdown until end of May at the earliest on 13:41 - Apr 4 by Darth_Koont

I think we'll have to wait and see on that. Lots of variables there. Not least that the new types of test gives vastly different options compared to what South Korea and Singapore could do with their more localised outbreaks and PCR testing.

We also need to be talking about local lockdown and responses as what's right for London and major population centres isn't perhaps right for smaller towns and rural areas. And vice versa.

Same goes for at-risk groups.


Oslo has been told to prepare for limited freedom of movement until the end of the year 😮

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Current Lockdown until end of May at the earliest on 15:42 - Apr 4 with 2013 viewsHerbivore

Current Lockdown until end of May at the earliest on 14:00 - Apr 4 by BlueBadger

Personally, I wouldn't be surprised if it was easing, rather than a full-on lift. I suspect the pubs, restaurants and major public spaces will stay off-limits for longer.


Yes, that's what I'm expecting. Large scale gatherings and public spaces will still be restricted and I think we might be looking at September before pubs reopen.

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Current Lockdown until end of May at the earliest on 15:49 - Apr 4 with 2000 viewsDarth_Koont

Current Lockdown until end of May at the earliest on 15:20 - Apr 4 by noggin

Oslo has been told to prepare for limited freedom of movement until the end of the year 😮


That's almost certainly true from an epidemiologist's perspective and limiting the spread of the virus. But if we asked an economist or even a healthcare economist then perhaps there'd be a different model.

Throw politics into it too and the need to manage messaging to the public and it's hard to see the wood from the trees.

Trying to put all the information together and see the least worst outcome overall, in recent weeks we can start using the case fatalities as the guide. You can generally split the under 65s (working population) and the over 65s including specific at-risk groups on top of that. If you can isolate the second group and particularly using the antigen and antibody testing on the people at the interface between the two groups then I don't see why you can't have a two-pronged approach of avoiding widescale death and overburdening healthcare resources while making sure the damage to the economy and long-term wellbeing are minimized.



The confirmed case fatality data from China, South Korea, Spain and Italy certainly shows that under 65/over 65 split and that might start informing our thinking more and more.

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Current Lockdown until end of May at the earliest on 15:51 - Apr 4 with 1999 viewslinhdi

Current Lockdown until end of May at the earliest on 15:19 - Apr 4 by Pinewoodblue

Agree with regards variables. Had a quick look at confirmed cases in Suffolk and compared to Croydon ( population slightly more than half that of Suffolk) there are three times as many confirmed cases in Croydon compared to Suffolk. So six times as many confirmed cases in Croydon if you take into account the difference in population.

Why? Have they tested more people in Croydon? Does the size of the area make a difference, fewer people per square mile? Or is it just that Croydon is further down the road than Suffolk.

Let’s leave it to the experts. Not an individual expert whose opinions are based on assumptions with regards to how people have had the virus and not been reported.

Think all he is actually saying is if the tests to show how many people have had meet his estimation we can ease off on restrictions end of May.


There is a clear link to population density. I might expect Croydon to be higher than 6x the equivalent Suffolk figure even...

Staying out of the way of other people reduces your chance of getting it. Mixing unnecessarily not only ups your chance of getting it but also increases other people's risk too.
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Current Lockdown until end of May at the earliest on 16:35 - Apr 4 with 1942 viewsPinewoodblue

Current Lockdown until end of May at the earliest on 15:51 - Apr 4 by linhdi

There is a clear link to population density. I might expect Croydon to be higher than 6x the equivalent Suffolk figure even...

Staying out of the way of other people reduces your chance of getting it. Mixing unnecessarily not only ups your chance of getting it but also increases other people's risk too.


But do you ease restrictions in areas of greater density before, or after, in rural areas. Be useful if Suffolk figures could be split down to district level. Suspect Ipswich accounts for more than it’s fair share of Suffolk cases.

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Current Lockdown until end of May at the earliest on 16:47 - Apr 4 with 1920 viewsStokieBlue

Maybe need to get the cats on lockdown as well (source: Guardian):

"Cats have been infected with coronavirus in Wuhan, and can get the virus from close contact with humans, Chinese state media is reporting.

According to a new report, 15 of the serum samples of 102 cats collected in Wuhan, where the virus originated, tested positive for coronavirus.

In 11 of the 15 positive tests, neutralising antibodies for coronavirus were found. Three of samples from cats whose owners had coronavirus had a higher number of neutralising antibodies, which indicates the cats may have been infected from close contact with their owners, the report suggests.

The report was published by researchers at the Huazhong Agricultural University and the Wuhan Institute of Virology, and the findings have been reported in China’s Global Times."


SB

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Current Lockdown until end of May at the earliest on 17:23 - Apr 4 with 1842 viewsElephantintheRoom

Its more to do with making the death rate acceptable. The lies are already in full swing on this one as the deaths announced are just hospital deaths recorded on that day.... the actual deaths may have been days previously - and the figure given doesnt include any deaths in the community where the infection actually is.

Once people get used to high death rates the the lock down can be eased. Its probably counter productive in most of the country anyway given that no effort was made to identify or contain infection in the early stage of the pandemic. There is no evidence that cooping up people who dont have the infection will stop it spreading amongst those who do.

Whic creates a bit of a problem .... how to protect all those people who needlessly self-isolated and emerge into a community rife with virsues? Cue herd immunity once again

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Current Lockdown until end of May at the earliest on 09:04 - Apr 5 with 1498 viewshoppy

Current Lockdown until end of May at the earliest on 13:32 - Apr 4 by StokieBlue

Seems sensible although he's 2nd and 3rd paragraphs say totally different things.

End of May is looking likely.

SB


That’s normally how paragraphs work, isn’t it?

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Current Lockdown until end of May at the earliest on 11:40 - Apr 5 with 1398 viewsSwansea_Blue

No worries. We seem to be coping really well in Wales.


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Current Lockdown until end of May at the earliest on 11:51 - Apr 5 with 1375 viewsSwansea_Blue

Current Lockdown until end of May at the earliest on 16:47 - Apr 4 by StokieBlue

Maybe need to get the cats on lockdown as well (source: Guardian):

"Cats have been infected with coronavirus in Wuhan, and can get the virus from close contact with humans, Chinese state media is reporting.

According to a new report, 15 of the serum samples of 102 cats collected in Wuhan, where the virus originated, tested positive for coronavirus.

In 11 of the 15 positive tests, neutralising antibodies for coronavirus were found. Three of samples from cats whose owners had coronavirus had a higher number of neutralising antibodies, which indicates the cats may have been infected from close contact with their owners, the report suggests.

The report was published by researchers at the Huazhong Agricultural University and the Wuhan Institute of Virology, and the findings have been reported in China’s Global Times."


SB


Ah, that’s the type of information I was looking for when I asked about pets a couple of weeks ago. I don’t understand how/if infections occur across species. But if it can happen, in both directions, there’s a whole load of sh*t waiting to happen there that may undermine all the social distancing efforts.

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Current Lockdown until end of May at the earliest on 11:54 - Apr 5 with 1364 viewsWeWereZombies

Current Lockdown until end of May at the earliest on 11:40 - Apr 5 by Swansea_Blue

No worries. We seem to be coping really well in Wales.



I was expecting that to end with a paradiddle

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Current Lockdown until end of May at the earliest on 11:55 - Apr 5 with 1364 viewspointofblue

Current Lockdown until end of May at the earliest on 11:51 - Apr 5 by Swansea_Blue

Ah, that’s the type of information I was looking for when I asked about pets a couple of weeks ago. I don’t understand how/if infections occur across species. But if it can happen, in both directions, there’s a whole load of sh*t waiting to happen there that may undermine all the social distancing efforts.


Looking at that it appears that the virus is just human to cat transmission; as you say the issue will be if it can move the other way.

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My view is the majority will be out of lockdown BY the end of May on 12:16 - Apr 5 with 1335 viewsunstableblue

That is 7 weeks away.

I think the elderly and those identified as at risk will be asked to continue to self isolate. These have already been identified and communicated to by the government.

The lockdown all relates to NHS capacity and not reaching a point where too many difficult choices need to be made who gets life saving care.

Capacity is now relatively healthy, and is continuing to be ramped up, my gut feel is we won’t hit a crisis in this round. Albeit NHS staff are and will be pushed too hard, and contingency is required in medical staff.

In those 7 weeks we’ll see a transformation in testing but also technologies to map people’s contact and movement, as per some of the Asian countries now freeing up.

The reality, and my point, is that we cannot economically handle 9-10 weeks of no production, trade, service beyond a few sectors. Furloughing is ramping up hugely. And people simply do not have savings for 2 months + without full income, even with government support (that in parallel will cripple the government finances). Pretty much all capital spend in UK plc has stopped, which is incredible.

Big difference between 2 weeks and 10 weeks. 3million furlough estimate from government, more like 6 to 10m.

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