| Just seen the breakdown of hospital deaths in England 16:31 - Apr 8 with 1367 views | longtimefan |
Tying them up with the hospital admissions figures for England (not all directly equivalent) it looks like you only have a 40-60% chance of getting out alive 
Stay at home people! |  | | |  |
| Just seen the breakdown of hospital deaths in England on 16:48 - Apr 8 with 1291 views | ElephantintheRoom |
erm - not quite right. It's too early to say as most people are still in hospital and have yet to die or recover.
More worrying perhaps is that the government is only releasing 'recorded deaths' which allows them to flatten the curve and ignores deaths in the community completely - which is where the virus actually is and where those hosptial admissions come from.
If you want to really start worrying, have a look at the latest forecasts based on the UK's pitiful number of hospital beds, low number of health care professionals - and obliterated care in the community..... doubled down on by the government's delayed responce. This suggests the UK in en route for by far the highest number of deaths in Europe. | |
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| Just seen the breakdown of hospital deaths in England on 16:54 - Apr 8 with 1265 views | Mullet |
| Just seen the breakdown of hospital deaths in England on 16:48 - Apr 8 by ElephantintheRoom |
erm - not quite right. It's too early to say as most people are still in hospital and have yet to die or recover.
More worrying perhaps is that the government is only releasing 'recorded deaths' which allows them to flatten the curve and ignores deaths in the community completely - which is where the virus actually is and where those hosptial admissions come from.
If you want to really start worrying, have a look at the latest forecasts based on the UK's pitiful number of hospital beds, low number of health care professionals - and obliterated care in the community..... doubled down on by the government's delayed responce. This suggests the UK in en route for by far the highest number of deaths in Europe. |
I don't disbelieve you, but can you substantiate that with some stats at all please? |  |
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| Just seen the breakdown of hospital deaths in England on 16:56 - Apr 8 with 1259 views | StokieBlue |
| Just seen the breakdown of hospital deaths in England on 16:48 - Apr 8 by ElephantintheRoom |
erm - not quite right. It's too early to say as most people are still in hospital and have yet to die or recover.
More worrying perhaps is that the government is only releasing 'recorded deaths' which allows them to flatten the curve and ignores deaths in the community completely - which is where the virus actually is and where those hosptial admissions come from.
If you want to really start worrying, have a look at the latest forecasts based on the UK's pitiful number of hospital beds, low number of health care professionals - and obliterated care in the community..... doubled down on by the government's delayed responce. This suggests the UK in en route for by far the highest number of deaths in Europe. |
They are very clear the death figures are hospital deaths so not sure what you are implying.
"ignores deaths in the community completely - which is where the virus actually is"
What do you mean by this? Are you implying there are more deaths outside hospital than it it?
I believe you are citing the Seattle Report - there are some huge questions about that report.
SB |  |
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| Just seen the breakdown of hospital deaths in England on 17:04 - Apr 8 with 1226 views | sparks |
| Just seen the breakdown of hospital deaths in England on 16:48 - Apr 8 by ElephantintheRoom |
erm - not quite right. It's too early to say as most people are still in hospital and have yet to die or recover.
More worrying perhaps is that the government is only releasing 'recorded deaths' which allows them to flatten the curve and ignores deaths in the community completely - which is where the virus actually is and where those hosptial admissions come from.
If you want to really start worrying, have a look at the latest forecasts based on the UK's pitiful number of hospital beds, low number of health care professionals - and obliterated care in the community..... doubled down on by the government's delayed responce. This suggests the UK in en route for by far the highest number of deaths in Europe. |
The usual misleading nonsense form the budgie troll.
Do you really think there are a significant number of corona virus deaths happening outside of hospital?
People with high fevers, trouble breathing, dry coughs- who simply thought "probably fine, shant bother getting an ambulance"? And who then cark it? |  |
| The presence of those seeking the truth is infinitely to be preferred to the presence of those who think they've found it.
(Sir Terry Pratchett) | | Poll: | Is Fred drunk this morning? |
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| Just seen the breakdown of hospital deaths in England on 17:12 - Apr 8 with 1202 views | bluelagos |
| Just seen the breakdown of hospital deaths in England on 17:04 - Apr 8 by sparks |
The usual misleading nonsense form the budgie troll.
Do you really think there are a significant number of corona virus deaths happening outside of hospital?
People with high fevers, trouble breathing, dry coughs- who simply thought "probably fine, shant bother getting an ambulance"? And who then cark it? |
For the record Channel 4 news last night reported that the likely deaths are around 40% higher than those reported by the governement.
They quoted ONS statistics from the earlier stages of the virus. They were clear this was no conspiracy nonsense - but yeah, lots of deaths outside of the reported daily figures. |  |
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| Just seen the breakdown of hospital deaths in England on 17:19 - Apr 8 with 1177 views | ThisIsMyUsername |
Changing the topic slightly...
I haven't been paying a great deal of attention to the briefings, but as far as I can work out it's the daily number of cases, rather than the number of deaths, which is the key figure regarding when lockdown measures will be eased. And as far as I can tell, these are heading in the right direction over the last couple of days, but it won't be for a few more days until a positive trend could be confirmed. Correct? [Post edited 8 Apr 2020 17:21]
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| Just seen the breakdown of hospital deaths in England on 17:28 - Apr 8 with 1132 views | bluelagos |
| Just seen the breakdown of hospital deaths in England on 17:19 - Apr 8 by ThisIsMyUsername |
Changing the topic slightly...
I haven't been paying a great deal of attention to the briefings, but as far as I can work out it's the daily number of cases, rather than the number of deaths, which is the key figure regarding when lockdown measures will be eased. And as far as I can tell, these are heading in the right direction over the last couple of days, but it won't be for a few more days until a positive trend could be confirmed. Correct? [Post edited 8 Apr 2020 17:21]
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They report the number of tests, number of positive tests and number of deaths.
All three stats are of limited use. The number of tests and positive tests are only those being tested in hospital. All those self isolating are only tested if they end up in hospital - so that stat is significantly understated.
The number of deaths is basically a bit behind. Some hospitals might say report numbers a few days later, others upto date. And those who die at home or in care homes are not counted.
Later on, they are included in the ONS stats. Last night C4 news compared the ONS stats to the conference figures at a point early in the virus and established the govt figures were 40% understated at that point.
So what does that mean? In essence you need to look at a rolling average to get a better feel for any trends. So wait a few days and see I guess.
(Sorry if that's a bit complicated) | |
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| Just seen the breakdown of hospital deaths in England on 17:49 - Apr 8 with 1082 views | Pinewoodblue |
| Just seen the breakdown of hospital deaths in England on 17:28 - Apr 8 by bluelagos |
They report the number of tests, number of positive tests and number of deaths.
All three stats are of limited use. The number of tests and positive tests are only those being tested in hospital. All those self isolating are only tested if they end up in hospital - so that stat is significantly understated.
The number of deaths is basically a bit behind. Some hospitals might say report numbers a few days later, others upto date. And those who die at home or in care homes are not counted.
Later on, they are included in the ONS stats. Last night C4 news compared the ONS stats to the conference figures at a point early in the virus and established the govt figures were 40% understated at that point.
So what does that mean? In essence you need to look at a rolling average to get a better feel for any trends. So wait a few days and see I guess.
(Sorry if that's a bit complicated) |
Suspect the figures are being reported the way they are as we are to be trusted to interpret them correctly. |  |
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| Just seen the breakdown of hospital deaths in England on 17:59 - Apr 8 with 1061 views | bluelagos |
| Just seen the breakdown of hospital deaths in England on 17:49 - Apr 8 by Pinewoodblue |
Suspect the figures are being reported the way they are as we are to be trusted to interpret them correctly. |
I genuinely don't think there's anything dodgy going on. The ONS will report the final figures but it takes them a couple of weeks to collate all the data.
But the govt (atm) need info quicker - and there is a strong public interest in getting the info quicker - so the govt reports daily confirmed deaths without implying they are the final total. | |
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| Just seen the breakdown of hospital deaths in England on 18:04 - Apr 8 with 1046 views | ThisIsMyUsername |
| Just seen the breakdown of hospital deaths in England on 17:28 - Apr 8 by bluelagos |
They report the number of tests, number of positive tests and number of deaths.
All three stats are of limited use. The number of tests and positive tests are only those being tested in hospital. All those self isolating are only tested if they end up in hospital - so that stat is significantly understated.
The number of deaths is basically a bit behind. Some hospitals might say report numbers a few days later, others upto date. And those who die at home or in care homes are not counted.
Later on, they are included in the ONS stats. Last night C4 news compared the ONS stats to the conference figures at a point early in the virus and established the govt figures were 40% understated at that point.
So what does that mean? In essence you need to look at a rolling average to get a better feel for any trends. So wait a few days and see I guess.
(Sorry if that's a bit complicated) |
Thanks, that's very clear.
So why don't the Gov use the ONS statistics? Surely that would help strengthen their case for people to follow the lockdown guidelines, as the number of deaths would be higher.
Perhaps because they're under pressure to provide up to date data to the public on a daily basis, and would rather keep it as simple as possible to understand, therefore providing whatever data they have to hand for the previous 24 hours, rather than data that's always a few days in retrospect?
Edit - Just seen your post above. Pretty much what I said on this post. [Post edited 8 Apr 2020 18:05]
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| Just seen the breakdown of hospital deaths in England on 18:46 - Apr 8 with 990 views | Trequartista |
| Just seen the breakdown of hospital deaths in England on 16:48 - Apr 8 by ElephantintheRoom |
erm - not quite right. It's too early to say as most people are still in hospital and have yet to die or recover.
More worrying perhaps is that the government is only releasing 'recorded deaths' which allows them to flatten the curve and ignores deaths in the community completely - which is where the virus actually is and where those hosptial admissions come from.
If you want to really start worrying, have a look at the latest forecasts based on the UK's pitiful number of hospital beds, low number of health care professionals - and obliterated care in the community..... doubled down on by the government's delayed responce. This suggests the UK in en route for by far the highest number of deaths in Europe. |
For balance though, they record deaths of people who had coronavirus, but didn't necessarily die from it. |  |
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| Just seen the breakdown of hospital deaths in England on 19:34 - Apr 8 with 916 views | Bluesquid |
| Just seen the breakdown of hospital deaths in England on 17:12 - Apr 8 by bluelagos |
For the record Channel 4 news last night reported that the likely deaths are around 40% higher than those reported by the governement.
They quoted ONS statistics from the earlier stages of the virus. They were clear this was no conspiracy nonsense - but yeah, lots of deaths outside of the reported daily figures. |
Worryingly the number of deaths could be higher but worth keeping in mind is that the ONS includes some(how many?) cases where C-19 is suspected but no test has taken place and also worth mentioning is the Coronavirus Act 2020 whereby a death can be signed off on the assumption that it is C-19 even without a doctor ever seeing the deceased.
[Post edited 8 Apr 2020 20:02]
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