| Ending this Pandemic 17:22 - Apr 9 with 4912 views | Lord_Lucan |
Can someone with more grey matter than I advise how this pandemic is going to be extinguished?
By all accounts it isn't like SARS and is quite easy to transmit. Considering it jumped from a Pangolin or Bat to one person (lets just say in November) and has since covered the globe with lightening speed how can it be eradicated seeing that it is impossible to get back to zero infection.
TWTD assorted loons and crackpots need not reply. [Post edited 9 Apr 2020 17:53]
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| Ending this Pandemic on 17:27 - Apr 9 with 2779 views | MattinLondon |
If you want someone to reply then you shouldn’t have written the last sentence. |  | | |
| Ending this Pandemic on 17:28 - Apr 9 with 2783 views | BlueBadger |
A comprehensive vaccination programme, better health promotion strategies for the public and a response that doesn't look suspiciously like someone is making it up on the hoof? |  |
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| Ending this Pandemic on 17:47 - Apr 9 with 2708 views | Lord_Lucan |
| Ending this Pandemic on 17:28 - Apr 9 by BlueBadger |
A comprehensive vaccination programme, better health promotion strategies for the public and a response that doesn't look suspiciously like someone is making it up on the hoof? |
Yes but we haven't got a vaccine, let's just say we are looking at a year which I would say is rather optimistic - especially when you have to roll it out across the planet.
Better health promotion is obviously a thing but it's not everything. So are we going to self distance for another year and still have a daily death count on the news?
Stephen Powis said that more ill people could be dying by avoiding hospital because of the pandemic than those who are actually dying from the virus.
Historically over the past five years 11,000 people die in England every week under normal circumstances, so what becomes of this number if people are avoiding hospitals because of the virus?
You're involved with medical things, what makes everyone so certain they can get a vaccine when there isn't one for the common cold?
Just asking opinions. [Post edited 9 Apr 2020 17:48]
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| Ending this Pandemic on 18:06 - Apr 9 with 2635 views | ThisIsMyUsername |
| Ending this Pandemic on 17:47 - Apr 9 by Lord_Lucan |
Yes but we haven't got a vaccine, let's just say we are looking at a year which I would say is rather optimistic - especially when you have to roll it out across the planet.
Better health promotion is obviously a thing but it's not everything. So are we going to self distance for another year and still have a daily death count on the news?
Stephen Powis said that more ill people could be dying by avoiding hospital because of the pandemic than those who are actually dying from the virus.
Historically over the past five years 11,000 people die in England every week under normal circumstances, so what becomes of this number if people are avoiding hospitals because of the virus?
You're involved with medical things, what makes everyone so certain they can get a vaccine when there isn't one for the common cold?
Just asking opinions. [Post edited 9 Apr 2020 17:48]
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Surely we are not going to have social distancing for a year.
Surely.
Right? |  |
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| Ending this Pandemic on 18:08 - Apr 9 with 2629 views | Dubtractor |
| Ending this Pandemic on 18:06 - Apr 9 by ThisIsMyUsername |
Surely we are not going to have social distancing for a year.
Surely.
Right? |
Oi, get the regulation 2 metres away from me sunshine. |  |
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| Ending this Pandemic on 18:11 - Apr 9 with 2634 views | Trequartista |
I read yesterday that the way it attaches itself to your cells is 'hit-and-run' meaning it doesn't disguise itself as well as other viruses and moves onto the next person quicker. This means a vaccine should be comparatively more effective when it comes along.
That's my layman's terms interpretation anyway. |  |
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| Ending this Pandemic on 18:12 - Apr 9 with 2624 views | Lord_Lucan |
| Ending this Pandemic on 18:06 - Apr 9 by ThisIsMyUsername |
Surely we are not going to have social distancing for a year.
Surely.
Right? |
I'm just addressing the potential problem of eradicating the virus completely as no one at all seems to be addressing this.
Noticeably replies are in short supply here as well whereas if it were a post about what governments are doing wrong then it would be on page 4 for sure already with hoards of disaffected experts. | |
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| Ending this Pandemic on 18:13 - Apr 9 with 2617 views | Dubtractor |
| Ending this Pandemic on 18:12 - Apr 9 by Lord_Lucan |
I'm just addressing the potential problem of eradicating the virus completely as no one at all seems to be addressing this.
Noticeably replies are in short supply here as well whereas if it were a post about what governments are doing wrong then it would be on page 4 for sure already with hoards of disaffected experts. |
I would have thought that eradicating completely is almost impossible isn't it? | |
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| Ending this Pandemic on 18:19 - Apr 9 with 2603 views | Guthrum |
Now it exists, there's no chance of it being exterminated (a la smallpox) in any kind of reasonable timeframe.
The most likely result will be a large degree of public immunity, aided by vaccination, with only the mildest strains still circulating (causing least harm, they stand the best chance of being passed on). Perhaps the occasional flare-up. A situation much like that for Flu, maybe even akin to Bubonic Plague, which is very rare nowadays. [Post edited 9 Apr 2020 18:20]
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| Ending this Pandemic on 18:23 - Apr 9 with 2565 views | Guthrum |
| Ending this Pandemic on 18:06 - Apr 9 by ThisIsMyUsername |
Surely we are not going to have social distancing for a year.
Surely.
Right? |
Maybe not constantly. But there might be phases of greater and lesser restrictions stretching out that long.
A bit like the ABS pulsing the brakes on a sliding car, keeping it just under control. | |
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| Ending this Pandemic on 18:25 - Apr 9 with 2557 views | Guthrum |
| Ending this Pandemic on 18:13 - Apr 9 by Dubtractor |
I would have thought that eradicating completely is almost impossible isn't it? |
They've done it with a couple, most famously smallpox. But it requires a concerted, long term, worldwide campaign of vaccination and isolation of known cases. | |
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| Ending this Pandemic on 18:26 - Apr 9 with 2559 views | jas0999 |
It won’t end. It will be controlled so the NHS can cope with those that get this virus and need hospital treatment. Some folk may have already had it and barely known. This is all about limiting the amount of folk that get it at any one time. |  | | |
| Ending this Pandemic on 18:30 - Apr 9 with 2532 views | factual_blue |
| Ending this Pandemic on 18:12 - Apr 9 by Lord_Lucan |
I'm just addressing the potential problem of eradicating the virus completely as no one at all seems to be addressing this.
Noticeably replies are in short supply here as well whereas if it were a post about what governments are doing wrong then it would be on page 4 for sure already with hoards of disaffected experts. |
We might just end up living with the virus as being endemic, like seasonal 'flu.
https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/489265-6-ways-t
There are seven ways the pandemic could end. The seventh being that we all die. |  |
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| Ending this Pandemic on 18:44 - Apr 9 with 2471 views | Lord_Lucan |
| Ending this Pandemic on 18:23 - Apr 9 by Guthrum |
Maybe not constantly. But there might be phases of greater and lesser restrictions stretching out that long.
A bit like the ABS pulsing the brakes on a sliding car, keeping it just under control. |
The thing is that we are not used to this kind of thing in the west, In China it's a thing.
At least if and when we get through this we will be socially more prepared to deal with a second wave or another strain.
I am adhering to all the guidelines but personally I am not overly worried about it as in the scale of things deaths are tiny and deaths amongst young healthy people are even more remote. If though it started affecting youngsters in a big way I would be panicking. | |
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| Ending this Pandemic on 18:47 - Apr 9 with 2449 views | Pecker |
I don't know and truth be told, nobody knows for sure. Scientists are working on a vaccine, but it will be a while before it is available for all. Always be critical of science in the past, so this is their chance to shut me up. Fingers crossed. |  | | |
| Ending this Pandemic on 18:48 - Apr 9 with 2440 views | ThisIsMyUsername |
| Ending this Pandemic on 18:23 - Apr 9 by Guthrum |
Maybe not constantly. But there might be phases of greater and lesser restrictions stretching out that long.
A bit like the ABS pulsing the brakes on a sliding car, keeping it just under control. |
OK, so how long is it going to be until one is allowed to go within 2 metres, and/or have physical contact, with someone who is not from the same household as oneself?
Weeks? Months?
(I know that no one on here could possibly know the answers to these questions, obviously). | |
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| Ending this Pandemic on 18:57 - Apr 9 with 2428 views | Darth_Koont |
The data re: spread and infection mortality rate is coming through now. Also re: tactics for controlling or managing it. That was always difficult with the Chinese data which just couldn't be trusted on its own.
No idea what the consensus view will be on how to handle Covid-19 itself among virus experts. But before too long there should be enough to weigh against the long-term health and economic damage of shutting down the UK and world economy.
There are a couple of problems though. A) the US is still a major factor in the world economy and them ballsing up their response will affect everyone else and B) politicians who want to reduce the numbers of Covid-19 deaths to defend their own record rather than perhaps taking the long-term view of what is best for the country and its health. They've never been long-term thinkers in the past or committed to the greater good so we can't expect them to do anything else but take the decisions that work out best for them as politicians. |  |
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| Ending this Pandemic on 19:25 - Apr 9 with 2356 views | Guthrum |
| Ending this Pandemic on 18:48 - Apr 9 by ThisIsMyUsername |
OK, so how long is it going to be until one is allowed to go within 2 metres, and/or have physical contact, with someone who is not from the same household as oneself?
Weeks? Months?
(I know that no one on here could possibly know the answers to these questions, obviously). |
That depends on to what extent they think they can release the brakes and what happens when they do. Any test period is going to have to last at least two to three weeks, that being roughly the length of time it takes between catching C-19 and most people who are going to die immediately doing so.
If they manage to get a system of widespread, instant-results testing going (which does not exist as yet), then they can afford to be rather more expansive, allowing more "holdays" from the lockdown.
I believe this phase is going to carry on for several more weeks, until the end of April at the absolute earliest. After that, there may be some (at least temporary) easing. | |
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| Ending this Pandemic on 19:37 - Apr 9 with 2315 views | ThisIsMyUsername |
| Ending this Pandemic on 19:25 - Apr 9 by Guthrum |
That depends on to what extent they think they can release the brakes and what happens when they do. Any test period is going to have to last at least two to three weeks, that being roughly the length of time it takes between catching C-19 and most people who are going to die immediately doing so.
If they manage to get a system of widespread, instant-results testing going (which does not exist as yet), then they can afford to be rather more expansive, allowing more "holdays" from the lockdown.
I believe this phase is going to carry on for several more weeks, until the end of April at the absolute earliest. After that, there may be some (at least temporary) easing. |
Thanks Guthers. Always enjoy reading your views. | |
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| Ending this Pandemic on 19:42 - Apr 9 with 2309 views | bluelagos |
| Ending this Pandemic on 18:19 - Apr 9 by Guthrum |
Now it exists, there's no chance of it being exterminated (a la smallpox) in any kind of reasonable timeframe.
The most likely result will be a large degree of public immunity, aided by vaccination, with only the mildest strains still circulating (causing least harm, they stand the best chance of being passed on). Perhaps the occasional flare-up. A situation much like that for Flu, maybe even akin to Bubonic Plague, which is very rare nowadays. [Post edited 9 Apr 2020 18:20]
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'Til recently I hadn't realised the bubonic plague still carries on. Apparently Madagascar gets quite regular outbreaks. |  |
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| Ending this Pandemic on 19:47 - Apr 9 with 2274 views | Plums |
| Ending this Pandemic on 18:47 - Apr 9 by Pecker |
I don't know and truth be told, nobody knows for sure. Scientists are working on a vaccine, but it will be a while before it is available for all. Always be critical of science in the past, so this is their chance to shut me up. Fingers crossed. |
Always be critical of science?
Was that a typo? |  |
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| Ending this Pandemic on 19:50 - Apr 9 with 2257 views | Pecker |
| Ending this Pandemic on 19:47 - Apr 9 by Plums |
Always be critical of science?
Was that a typo? |
No. | | | |
| Ending this Pandemic on 19:51 - Apr 9 with 2249 views | Darth_Koont |
| Ending this Pandemic on 19:47 - Apr 9 by Plums |
Always be critical of science?
Was that a typo? |
Agreed. Why be critical of something where criticism and doubt is hard-wired into its own process?
Science takes human nature and what we want to believe out of the equation. At least, better than any other approach we have. | |
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| Ending this Pandemic on 19:56 - Apr 9 with 2227 views | BrixtonBlue |
| Ending this Pandemic on 18:48 - Apr 9 by ThisIsMyUsername |
OK, so how long is it going to be until one is allowed to go within 2 metres, and/or have physical contact, with someone who is not from the same household as oneself?
Weeks? Months?
(I know that no one on here could possibly know the answers to these questions, obviously). |
Who have you got your eye on? |  |
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| Ending this Pandemic on 20:22 - Apr 9 with 2173 views | factual_blue |
| Ending this Pandemic on 18:48 - Apr 9 by ThisIsMyUsername |
OK, so how long is it going to be until one is allowed to go within 2 metres, and/or have physical contact, with someone who is not from the same household as oneself?
Weeks? Months?
(I know that no one on here could possibly know the answers to these questions, obviously). |
In your case the answer is 'not before the restraining order is lifted'. | |
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