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Hard to see this as scaremongering given successive days of 900+ fatalities and a higher daily fatality rate on our worst day than on the worst days in China, Italy and Spain. Bear in mind that we looked on in horror at what was happening in those countries just a few weeks ago.
Considering it started to hit here later than in the rest of mainland Europe, in theory giving us time to prepare and mitigate, that's pretty scandalous. The inquest will come in some months' time but I struggle to see how anyone can think this has been handled competently.
UK could be worst hit in Europe on 16:10 - Apr 12 by Bluesquid
Every death is incredibly sad and tragic and my heart goes out to all of the families and friends of the deceased but not all of this figure is a death as a result of C-19.
It's correct to point out these are deaths with coronavirus but not necessarily from coronavirus, but also equally correct to point out that people dying outside hospital e.g. in care homes, are not included in nhs figures.
UK could be worst hit in Europe on 15:41 - Apr 12 by StokieBlue
To understand just how ridiculous the US seems to be at the moment look at this screenshot I just took (click to enlarge):
You can bet the vast majority of those are internal flights transporting C19 from "sea to shining sea".
SB
Mental. Just had a cruise around that website. Pretty cool but the US is ridiculous. I only saw the odd commercial plane from/to the UK in our air space.
UK could be worst hit in Europe on 16:02 - Apr 12 by Trequartista
The question i've pondered a lot is why is it ripping through Europe with high mortality rates, and not places like India, developing nations in Africa and places in Asia like Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand where there is a huge amount of people not far from China, and places you'd expect a disease to have more devastation.
I had hoped the warmer climate whilst Europe was still relatively cold was a factor.
Several possible reasons.
Europe has very high connectivity, including with China. The illness stands a better chance of flying from Wuhan to Heathrow than just wandering across the border (some parts of which are mountainous and very thinly populated).
For that matter, much of Africa is very sparsely populated, certainly by European standards.
Malaysia and Indonesia are a long way from China. The most populous regions of those countries being two to three thousand miles from Wuhan. It's actually on the rise in those countries.
India it's just getting going, same with much of Africa and South America. Testing levels and statistical analysis are not at such a high level as in Europe. The President of Brazil does not even acknowlege C-19 is a real problem. Infection levels and mortality are very likely higher than reported.
UK could be worst hit in Europe on 16:54 - Apr 12 by Guthrum
Several possible reasons.
Europe has very high connectivity, including with China. The illness stands a better chance of flying from Wuhan to Heathrow than just wandering across the border (some parts of which are mountainous and very thinly populated).
For that matter, much of Africa is very sparsely populated, certainly by European standards.
Malaysia and Indonesia are a long way from China. The most populous regions of those countries being two to three thousand miles from Wuhan. It's actually on the rise in those countries.
India it's just getting going, same with much of Africa and South America. Testing levels and statistical analysis are not at such a high level as in Europe. The President of Brazil does not even acknowlege C-19 is a real problem. Infection levels and mortality are very likely higher than reported.
I possibly overstated the case about the proximity of China to the countries I specified, just puzzled at why the outbreaks there are not as fierce. Of course there are huge areas with no population that European countries don't have, but once it has hit these countries in their major cities, it hasn't exploded like it has in European cities.
UK could be worst hit in Europe on 16:07 - Apr 12 by longtimefan
I must admit India puzzles me. If there was one country you would expect it to rip through it would be India.
How would we know if it was?
How much access do the urban poor have to medical facilities, much less testing? How much monitoring is there in remote rural areas? Who is doing the statistical compilation and publishing? Bear in mind they also have a highly nationalist government.
UK could be worst hit in Europe on 16:54 - Apr 12 by Guthrum
Several possible reasons.
Europe has very high connectivity, including with China. The illness stands a better chance of flying from Wuhan to Heathrow than just wandering across the border (some parts of which are mountainous and very thinly populated).
For that matter, much of Africa is very sparsely populated, certainly by European standards.
Malaysia and Indonesia are a long way from China. The most populous regions of those countries being two to three thousand miles from Wuhan. It's actually on the rise in those countries.
India it's just getting going, same with much of Africa and South America. Testing levels and statistical analysis are not at such a high level as in Europe. The President of Brazil does not even acknowlege C-19 is a real problem. Infection levels and mortality are very likely higher than reported.
Suspect the majority of cases in UK could be traced back via Lombardy rather than direct from Wuhan.
UK could be worst hit in Europe on 15:31 - Apr 12 by Guthrum
The problem with this idea that we could have set up to mitigate any better than we did is that we don't actually know that - certainly not yet.
Thwere is so much we still do not understand about C-19 and the ways it spreads. There are numerous factors affecting the way it spread in different countries (e.g. South Korea had an extremely concentrated outbreak among one community in a single city, which made it a lot easier to isolate).
For all we know at this stage, the UK may have done/be doing an excellent job in avoiding what could have been a much worse disaster. Our hospital facilities have not been overwhelmed, spare capacity has come online pretty quick.
When looking at daily death rates, it is worth noting that is when they are announced, not necessarily when they occurred, which can be (according to official press releases) up to five days previously.
“Thwere is so much we still do not understand about C-19 and the ways it spreads.“
Why no tracking app then?
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UK could be worst hit in Europe on 17:04 - Apr 12 with 938 views
UK could be worst hit in Europe on 16:58 - Apr 12 by Trequartista
I possibly overstated the case about the proximity of China to the countries I specified, just puzzled at why the outbreaks there are not as fierce. Of course there are huge areas with no population that European countries don't have, but once it has hit these countries in their major cities, it hasn't exploded like it has in European cities.
Yet. In Indonesia, it has only just got to the stage where they are having to introduce lockdown measures. In Thailand, infection numbers are on the rise.
It's partly an issue that C-19 got to Europe (almost certainly by air) earlier and in larger quantities than to those countries. The price we pay for a globalised economy where stuff is made in China, plus for enjoying the floods of Far Eastern tourists and students in our universities.
UK could be worst hit in Europe on 16:45 - Apr 12 by Trequartista
It's correct to point out these are deaths with coronavirus but not necessarily from coronavirus, but also equally correct to point out that people dying outside hospital e.g. in care homes, are not included in nhs figures.
Yes you are correct to point that out but one must seriously wonder over the figures that we are being constantly bombarded with.
How many of the C-19 deaths are based on assumptions?
Because the recently implemented Coronavirus Act 2020 means a death can be signed off on the assumption that it is C-19 even without a doctor ever seeing the deceased.
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UK could be worst hit in Europe on 17:06 - Apr 12 with 930 views
UK could be worst hit in Europe on 16:10 - Apr 12 by Bluesquid
Every death is incredibly sad and tragic and my heart goes out to all of the families and friends of the deceased but not all of this figure is a death as a result of C-19.
Except for the bit where these deaths are explicitly linked to testing positive for C-19, you're entirely correct here.
Have a day off squidgy, you're just going to make yourself look a bit mad and very stupid.
Again.
I'm one of the people who was blamed for getting Paul Cook sacked. PM for the full post.
UK could be worst hit in Europe on 17:00 - Apr 12 by Guthrum
How would we know if it was?
How much access do the urban poor have to medical facilities, much less testing? How much monitoring is there in remote rural areas? Who is doing the statistical compilation and publishing? Bear in mind they also have a highly nationalist government.
All very true. Though they have supposedly conducted 190K tests of which only 8.5K have proved positive Obviously a minuscule proportion of their population though.
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UK could be worst hit in Europe on 17:12 - Apr 12 with 917 views
UK could be worst hit in Europe on 17:04 - Apr 12 by Guthrum
Yet. In Indonesia, it has only just got to the stage where they are having to introduce lockdown measures. In Thailand, infection numbers are on the rise.
It's partly an issue that C-19 got to Europe (almost certainly by air) earlier and in larger quantities than to those countries. The price we pay for a globalised economy where stuff is made in China, plus for enjoying the floods of Far Eastern tourists and students in our universities.
[Post edited 12 Apr 2020 17:05]
Indonesia haven't been totally truthful from the start by the looks of reports coming out of there now. I remember seeing a study 2 months ago that said they should have had 4000 cases then based just on the huge number of flights that had come from China during the contagious phases.
A lot of countries either can't be accurate (lack of testing) or aren't being accurate (political reasons).
SB
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UK could be worst hit in Europe on 17:25 - Apr 12 with 894 views
UK could be worst hit in Europe on 17:09 - Apr 12 by BlueBadger
Except for the bit where these deaths are explicitly linked to testing positive for C-19, you're entirely correct here.
Have a day off squidgy, you're just going to make yourself look a bit mad and very stupid.
Again.
As a medical professional you know full well that positive for C-19 doesn't mean it was the cause of death.
And then you've got the problems with testing and accuracy which you yourself have even highlighted.
Also the Office for National Statistics (ONS) publishes weekly counts of deaths in which COVID-19 was mentioned on the death certificate. Included in this count are some (how many?) cases where COVID-19 is suspected but no test has taken place.
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UK could be worst hit in Europe on 17:26 - Apr 12 with 894 views
UK could be worst hit in Europe on 17:04 - Apr 12 by SouthBucksBlue
“Thwere is so much we still do not understand about C-19 and the ways it spreads.“
Why no tracking app then?
You can't track a pathogen.
A person may have had thousands of contacts between being infected and beginning to show symptoms. Unless you track everybody all of the time - which generates a vast amount of data and takes huge processing power to analyse it, even before you start looking at legal and privacy issues - it's too late once you know someone has it.
I was also referring to the ongoing debate about the actual methods of transmission form one person to another. They had pretty much settled on the "heavy droplets" approach, with the 2m limit. But new studies are pointing more towards the "cloud of light droplets" method, which spreads much further and persists in the air for longer. Neither is conclusively proven. They don't even know for certain how long it lasts on surfaces.
UK could be worst hit in Europe on 17:25 - Apr 12 by Bluesquid
As a medical professional you know full well that positive for C-19 doesn't mean it was the cause of death.
And then you've got the problems with testing and accuracy which you yourself have even highlighted.
Also the Office for National Statistics (ONS) publishes weekly counts of deaths in which COVID-19 was mentioned on the death certificate. Included in this count are some (how many?) cases where COVID-19 is suspected but no test has taken place.
Why are you so determine to push the theory that a lot of the deaths being recorded aren't C19?
We also know a lot of deaths that are likely C19 aren't included as well (care homes, deaths at home) but you don't mention these.
SB
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UK could be worst hit in Europe on 17:35 - Apr 12 with 879 views
UK could be worst hit in Europe on 16:07 - Apr 12 by longtimefan
I must admit India puzzles me. If there was one country you would expect it to rip through it would be India.
But it could be anything ie maybe the weather in India is stopping it progressing. The world is gradually learning more and more about the virus and it's reacting differently in some Countries. Why does it seem to impact males more than females? Why does it seem to impact ethnic minorities more? Lots of questions which hopefully scientists will find the answers to.
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UK could be worst hit in Europe on 17:39 - Apr 12 with 869 views
UK could be worst hit in Europe on 15:20 - Apr 12 by WD19
I’ve down arrowed it because I disagree. I’ve been pleasantly surprised by how well the CMO and the various behavioural modellers etc have called and handled this so far. As others have said, it is impossible to know what was exactly the right/wrong approach, but on balance they have got far more right than wrong in my opinion.
Certain areas could and should have been prioritised back in January, when it was becoming evident what was happening in China and, developing in Europe, which, would ultimately also impact the UK.
There appears to have been very little if any thought given to the requirements of the correct PPE for use within the NHS and social care sector, which is still woefully inadequate and, how resupplies of this equipment could be delivered with minimal delay to where it was needed most. The need to provide adequate testing capacity for all health care and front line staff. The private sector could and, should have been brought into the discussion at this point.
The availability of the required equipment when entering the Critical Care Unit and, the appropriately trained staff to operate said equipment. Up-skilling of staff should have been put into effect immediately.
We have situations now, which have been highlighted almost endlessly by the various news outlets, of staff self isolating, when a test could have cleared them to return to work within a shorter period of time. This could also have assisted with attempting to maintain clean and dirty wards within the hospital environment. The situation now exists, where staff are moved between different areas of the hospital between both clean and dirty wards to ensure sufficient numbers, with the said staff member not being tested. This quite obviously raises the risk of the virus spreading throughout the hospital.
The guidelines about what type of PPE to be worn on the wards, changes dependent upon what is available. Staff are also requested to arrive in uniform and, on completion of their 12-hour shift, change into there own clothes to travel home. Most of the available showers on the wards are now filled with stock, to prevent movement between wards to a minimum, therefore, preventing staff from showering following their shift before they travel home.
Staff numbers and moral are now at such a level, where people are refusing to be transferred to another area of the hospital, specifically Covid-19 wards and CCU. This has resulted in no further requests being made, names are now being pulled out of a hat!
So, yes, the Governments initial planning and prior warnings of the functioning position of the NHS from previous disaster planning exercises and austerity measures, has been nothing but a national disgrace.
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UK could be worst hit in Europe on 17:41 - Apr 12 with 872 views
UK could be worst hit in Europe on 17:25 - Apr 12 by Bluesquid
As a medical professional you know full well that positive for C-19 doesn't mean it was the cause of death.
And then you've got the problems with testing and accuracy which you yourself have even highlighted.
Also the Office for National Statistics (ONS) publishes weekly counts of deaths in which COVID-19 was mentioned on the death certificate. Included in this count are some (how many?) cases where COVID-19 is suspected but no test has taken place.
No, but given the current climate, the overwhelming majority of it IS.
It'll certainly be a factor in the deaths of many others who've already got other, life limiting conditions. Plus, deaths in the home(care or otherwise) where testing hasn't happened aren't recorded. If anything, we're underestimating our covid-19 deaths.
In addition to this, testing is fairly unreliable - a lot of people are being treated on the basis of a strong clinical picture suggestive of C19 - I know of at least one individual who is deploying literally every sign bar a positive test, so we're treating accordingly.
[Post edited 12 Apr 2020 17:43]
I'm one of the people who was blamed for getting Paul Cook sacked. PM for the full post.
UK could be worst hit in Europe on 17:41 - Apr 12 by BlueBadger
No, but given the current climate, the overwhelming majority of it IS.
It'll certainly be a factor in the deaths of many others who've already got other, life limiting conditions. Plus, deaths in the home(care or otherwise) where testing hasn't happened aren't recorded. If anything, we're underestimating our covid-19 deaths.
In addition to this, testing is fairly unreliable - a lot of people are being treated on the basis of a strong clinical picture suggestive of C19 - I know of at least one individual who is deploying literally every sign bar a positive test, so we're treating accordingly.
[Post edited 12 Apr 2020 17:43]
When this is all over, they will measure the total deaths and compare it to an average (expected) year to estimate the final CV impact. No other way as far as I can tell.
UK could be worst hit in Europe on 17:41 - Apr 12 by BlueBadger
No, but given the current climate, the overwhelming majority of it IS.
It'll certainly be a factor in the deaths of many others who've already got other, life limiting conditions. Plus, deaths in the home(care or otherwise) where testing hasn't happened aren't recorded. If anything, we're underestimating our covid-19 deaths.
In addition to this, testing is fairly unreliable - a lot of people are being treated on the basis of a strong clinical picture suggestive of C19 - I know of at least one individual who is deploying literally every sign bar a positive test, so we're treating accordingly.
[Post edited 12 Apr 2020 17:43]
Afternoon badger.
Not sure if you saw this (or are interested) but it's quite interesting metrics around how the deaths at home in NYC are miles above baseline. A few on here were pushing that we were just seeing baseline deaths with no excess mortality.
Excess mortality study by StokieBlue12 Apr 2020 12:20 A number of people have made posts around the true scale of C19 and whether it is really causing excess mortality above the normal baseline rate.
I was listening to a podcast earlier and a report came up dealing with this issue.
Caveats:
- It's NYC only
- It's not peered reviewed
- The cause of death at home isn't confirmed as C19 as they aren't tested
Essentially the daily "at home" mortality rate in NYC in normal times is about 20 people but it's currently running at over 200 people per day. No C19 tests are performed on these deaths so it's unknown if they are direct C19 cases or cases where C19 has been a mitigating factor (being inside, no access to healthcare etc).
Only preliminary findings so one can't draw firm conclusions but it's interesting and would seem to show that it's possible when the data is analysed in the future the deaths could be significantly above the baseline.
SB
Obviously a lot more data is required to draw any firm conclusions.
SB
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UK could be worst hit in Europe on 17:50 - Apr 12 with 847 views
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