| UK could be worst hit in Europe 13:12 - Apr 12 with 8962 views | Herbivore |
In terms of Covid-19 fatalities: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52261859
Hard to see this as scaremongering given successive days of 900+ fatalities and a higher daily fatality rate on our worst day than on the worst days in China, Italy and Spain. Bear in mind that we looked on in horror at what was happening in those countries just a few weeks ago.
Considering it started to hit here later than in the rest of mainland Europe, in theory giving us time to prepare and mitigate, that's pretty scandalous. The inquest will come in some months' time but I struggle to see how anyone can think this has been handled competently. |  |
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| UK could be worst hit in Europe on 14:23 - Apr 12 with 2995 views | SouthBucksBlue |
It hasn’t.
And in my opinion still isn’t being.
Germany and South Korea seem to have handled it particularly well with a test and isolate strategy.
Why aren’t we doing this?
I’ve seen no analysis of how it’s being spread in the UK.
There’s an app that got some mention on the BBC partly developed by Guy’s Hospital I think but only 2 million are using it.
Help slow the spread of #COVID19 and identify at risk cases sooner by self-reporting your symptoms daily, even if you feel well ðŸ™. Download the app https://covid.joinzoe.com/
I’m not sure whether this app has full movement tracking but the government should mandate the use of a tracking app. Yes libertarians will bleat but most of us have nothing to to hide and this would have a real impact on the containment effort. |  | | |
| UK could be worst hit in Europe on 14:30 - Apr 12 with 2981 views | pointofblue |
| UK could be worst hit in Europe on 14:23 - Apr 12 by SouthBucksBlue |
It hasn’t.
And in my opinion still isn’t being.
Germany and South Korea seem to have handled it particularly well with a test and isolate strategy.
Why aren’t we doing this?
I’ve seen no analysis of how it’s being spread in the UK.
There’s an app that got some mention on the BBC partly developed by Guy’s Hospital I think but only 2 million are using it.
Help slow the spread of #COVID19 and identify at risk cases sooner by self-reporting your symptoms daily, even if you feel well ðŸ™. Download the app https://covid.joinzoe.com/
I’m not sure whether this app has full movement tracking but the government should mandate the use of a tracking app. Yes libertarians will bleat but most of us have nothing to to hide and this would have a real impact on the containment effort. |
As said elsewhere, Japan have Covid-19 under control and have carried out far fewer tests than us. There doesn’t seem to be any rhyme or reason behind how things develop though I’m going to assume the Japanese are far more aware and respectful as a society than we are here. The app looks like a good way of tracking the disease.
As an aside, I think I would have implemented a couple of things differently had I been in charge of the response - close the borders much earlier and request that all those flying in are placed in quarantine for fourteen days and also close the pubs/theatres on the day the “don’t visit” request was issued rather than leaving them in limbo. Obviously there are issues with PPE but I have no idea what the government response to that and what could be done better there. | |
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| UK could be worst hit in Europe on 14:42 - Apr 12 with 2950 views | bluelagos |
The inquest will need to be both thorough and independent. Whether that is the case may be a different matter. [Post edited 12 Apr 2020 14:58]
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| UK could be worst hit in Europe on 14:50 - Apr 12 with 2925 views | Radlett_blue |
| UK could be worst hit in Europe on 14:23 - Apr 12 by SouthBucksBlue |
It hasn’t.
And in my opinion still isn’t being.
Germany and South Korea seem to have handled it particularly well with a test and isolate strategy.
Why aren’t we doing this?
I’ve seen no analysis of how it’s being spread in the UK.
There’s an app that got some mention on the BBC partly developed by Guy’s Hospital I think but only 2 million are using it.
Help slow the spread of #COVID19 and identify at risk cases sooner by self-reporting your symptoms daily, even if you feel well ðŸ™. Download the app https://covid.joinzoe.com/
I’m not sure whether this app has full movement tracking but the government should mandate the use of a tracking app. Yes libertarians will bleat but most of us have nothing to to hide and this would have a real impact on the containment effort. |
Let's wait & see how it develops. It's very early days and neither the government's finances nor the economy can handle a prolonged lockdown. The difficult decision is how& when to manage the release from the lockdown. |  |
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| UK could be worst hit in Europe on 15:16 - Apr 12 with 2858 views | Herbivore |
About the only country that's done worse than us is the US. Interesting a couple of people have down arrowed the OP, not sure why as it's hardly controversial. | |
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| UK could be worst hit in Europe on 15:20 - Apr 12 with 2839 views | WD19 |
| UK could be worst hit in Europe on 15:16 - Apr 12 by Herbivore |
About the only country that's done worse than us is the US. Interesting a couple of people have down arrowed the OP, not sure why as it's hardly controversial. |
I’ve down arrowed it because I disagree. I’ve been pleasantly surprised by how well the CMO and the various behavioural modellers etc have called and handled this so far. As others have said, it is impossible to know what was exactly the right/wrong approach, but on balance they have got far more right than wrong in my opinion. |  | | |
| UK could be worst hit in Europe on 15:21 - Apr 12 with 2834 views | StokieBlue |
| UK could be worst hit in Europe on 15:16 - Apr 12 by Herbivore |
About the only country that's done worse than us is the US. Interesting a couple of people have down arrowed the OP, not sure why as it's hardly controversial. |
Belgium are doing worse on most metrics but it's hardly a claim to fame. I believe Italy had a number of successive days over 900? The are obviously differences between each country as well.
There will be an enquiry, hopefully when all the information is available. It's still evolving like the news yesterday that ventilators might not actually be the way to treat it.
A full and independent review is a must though taking in the context at the time and then the information available afterwards. Some people seem to want to have a review on a daily basis disregarding the fact it's an incredibly fluid and evolving situation.
SB [Post edited 12 Apr 2020 15:23]
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| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| UK could be worst hit in Europe on 15:22 - Apr 12 with 2824 views | Herbivore |
| UK could be worst hit in Europe on 15:20 - Apr 12 by WD19 |
I’ve down arrowed it because I disagree. I’ve been pleasantly surprised by how well the CMO and the various behavioural modellers etc have called and handled this so far. As others have said, it is impossible to know what was exactly the right/wrong approach, but on balance they have got far more right than wrong in my opinion. |
I've down arrowed your post because I disagree. We've been far too reactive and on the back foot despite having comparatively more time to plan and prepare than some of our neighbours. Hence our fatality rate being so high. I'm curious as to what you think we've done well. [Post edited 12 Apr 2020 15:22]
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| UK could be worst hit in Europe on 15:24 - Apr 12 with 2810 views | Trequartista |
I think per capita is a better measurement which makes Spain worse, but in turn makes us worse than the US, and we have no real idea what the worst day in China was, but your point stands, we messed up by locking down two weeks too late. |  |
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| UK could be worst hit in Europe on 15:30 - Apr 12 with 2779 views | WD19 |
| UK could be worst hit in Europe on 15:22 - Apr 12 by Herbivore |
I've down arrowed your post because I disagree. We've been far too reactive and on the back foot despite having comparatively more time to plan and prepare than some of our neighbours. Hence our fatality rate being so high. I'm curious as to what you think we've done well. [Post edited 12 Apr 2020 15:22]
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It’s all personal opinions, but I think we probably got the timing of the lockdown more or less right (in terms of what the maximum peak our ITU could cope with might be). Social distancing is already breaking down around here.
The response in ramping up ITU capacity has been exceptional and it currently looks like it will be sufficient to meet the need.
The economic support has been first rate.....although I question how long it will last given that it is costing oodles more than was anticipated. | | | |
| UK could be worst hit in Europe on 15:31 - Apr 12 with 2780 views | Guthrum |
The problem with this idea that we could have set up to mitigate any better than we did is that we don't actually know that - certainly not yet.
Thwere is so much we still do not understand about C-19 and the ways it spreads. There are numerous factors affecting the way it spread in different countries (e.g. South Korea had an extremely concentrated outbreak among one community in a single city, which made it a lot easier to isolate).
For all we know at this stage, the UK may have done/be doing an excellent job in avoiding what could have been a much worse disaster. Our hospital facilities have not been overwhelmed, spare capacity has come online pretty quick.
When looking at daily death rates, it is worth noting that is when they are announced, not necessarily when they occurred, which can be (according to official press releases) up to five days previously. |  |
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| UK could be worst hit in Europe on 15:33 - Apr 12 with 2760 views | Mercian |
| UK could be worst hit in Europe on 15:24 - Apr 12 by Trequartista |
I think per capita is a better measurement which makes Spain worse, but in turn makes us worse than the US, and we have no real idea what the worst day in China was, but your point stands, we messed up by locking down two weeks too late. |
The US is going to get worse, hard to imagine when you see bodies being buried in mass graves in New York not dissimilar to the awful images of concentration camp inmates being buried after the camps were liberated. Although New York continues to suffer terribly they are getting a grip there. Smaller but still big 1,000,000 cities like Detroit and Philadelphia are just starting to see the increase. Parts of the country have still not shut down. It could literally be 100's of 1000s dead. What worries me about the UK is the death rate, currently around 12 percent. | | | |
| UK could be worst hit in Europe on 15:36 - Apr 12 with 2747 views | Herbivore |
| UK could be worst hit in Europe on 15:30 - Apr 12 by WD19 |
It’s all personal opinions, but I think we probably got the timing of the lockdown more or less right (in terms of what the maximum peak our ITU could cope with might be). Social distancing is already breaking down around here.
The response in ramping up ITU capacity has been exceptional and it currently looks like it will be sufficient to meet the need.
The economic support has been first rate.....although I question how long it will last given that it is costing oodles more than was anticipated. |
Have to agree to disagree on this one. | |
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| UK could be worst hit in Europe on 15:38 - Apr 12 with 2740 views | Guthrum |
| UK could be worst hit in Europe on 15:33 - Apr 12 by Mercian |
The US is going to get worse, hard to imagine when you see bodies being buried in mass graves in New York not dissimilar to the awful images of concentration camp inmates being buried after the camps were liberated. Although New York continues to suffer terribly they are getting a grip there. Smaller but still big 1,000,000 cities like Detroit and Philadelphia are just starting to see the increase. Parts of the country have still not shut down. It could literally be 100's of 1000s dead. What worries me about the UK is the death rate, currently around 12 percent. |
Bear in mind that's 12.5% of cases severe enough to have been admitted to hospital, thus qualifying for a test. Yoy have to add to them all the people with suspicious symptoms who have not become sick enough for hospitalisation, but who may or may not have had C-19, which will likely reduce the mortality rate considerably. | |
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| UK could be worst hit in Europe on 15:41 - Apr 12 with 2732 views | StokieBlue |
| UK could be worst hit in Europe on 15:33 - Apr 12 by Mercian |
The US is going to get worse, hard to imagine when you see bodies being buried in mass graves in New York not dissimilar to the awful images of concentration camp inmates being buried after the camps were liberated. Although New York continues to suffer terribly they are getting a grip there. Smaller but still big 1,000,000 cities like Detroit and Philadelphia are just starting to see the increase. Parts of the country have still not shut down. It could literally be 100's of 1000s dead. What worries me about the UK is the death rate, currently around 12 percent. |
To understand just how ridiculous the US seems to be at the moment look at this screenshot I just took (click to enlarge):
You can bet the vast majority of those are internal flights transporting C19 from "sea to shining sea".
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| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| UK could be worst hit in Europe on 15:41 - Apr 12 with 2729 views | longtimefan |
| UK could be worst hit in Europe on 15:16 - Apr 12 by Herbivore |
About the only country that's done worse than us is the US. Interesting a couple of people have down arrowed the OP, not sure why as it's hardly controversial. |
By what metric? USA is only the worst country based on total number of deaths, which although tragic isn’t a really meaningful metric given its population size compared to most of Europe. Also by that metric, Italy would be much worse than the UK. Confused! | | | |
| UK could be worst hit in Europe on 15:48 - Apr 12 with 2693 views | TractorWood |
| UK could be worst hit in Europe on 15:33 - Apr 12 by Mercian |
The US is going to get worse, hard to imagine when you see bodies being buried in mass graves in New York not dissimilar to the awful images of concentration camp inmates being buried after the camps were liberated. Although New York continues to suffer terribly they are getting a grip there. Smaller but still big 1,000,000 cities like Detroit and Philadelphia are just starting to see the increase. Parts of the country have still not shut down. It could literally be 100's of 1000s dead. What worries me about the UK is the death rate, currently around 12 percent. |
Our mortality rate is meaningless. We are only testing people who are seriously ill and there is no real sign that testing is ramping up.
We've only gone over 12,000 tests a day a few times. Germany have tested over a million more people than us. As a few have said above there is no consistent international approach to testing or potentially classification of death by Covid-19. We don't really even know if it's seasonal or climatically affected yet.
Hence why drawing any type of conclusion at the moment is difficult. Some countries might have a harsher challenge just from their climate, age demographics, social structures, rural/urban split etc etc. |  |
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| UK could be worst hit in Europe on 15:53 - Apr 12 with 2673 views | Mercian |
| UK could be worst hit in Europe on 15:41 - Apr 12 by longtimefan |
By what metric? USA is only the worst country based on total number of deaths, which although tragic isn’t a really meaningful metric given its population size compared to most of Europe. Also by that metric, Italy would be much worse than the UK. Confused! |
Italy is not worse than the UK, they are just "ahead", The USA however are "behind". NYC gets all the news but in other parts of the country cases are accelerating. The UK Government got it wrong, realised and admitted it and changed stance. The USA Government, particularity Trump and his sycophant loyalists have done none of those things, still insisting they are doing a great job, gushing that the daily news briefings are getting high TV ratings, stockpiling, refusing aid to blue states so they can help red states when they get hit etc. While a few State Governors have been doing the sensible thing many others have not. Even now in The US politicians, Democrats as well as Republicans are seeking political gain from the crisis are are less bi-partizan now than they have ever been. That is why America will be the most hard hit, [Post edited 12 Apr 2020 15:56]
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| UK could be worst hit in Europe on 15:57 - Apr 12 with 2642 views | StokieBlue |
| UK could be worst hit in Europe on 15:48 - Apr 12 by TractorWood |
Our mortality rate is meaningless. We are only testing people who are seriously ill and there is no real sign that testing is ramping up.
We've only gone over 12,000 tests a day a few times. Germany have tested over a million more people than us. As a few have said above there is no consistent international approach to testing or potentially classification of death by Covid-19. We don't really even know if it's seasonal or climatically affected yet.
Hence why drawing any type of conclusion at the moment is difficult. Some countries might have a harsher challenge just from their climate, age demographics, social structures, rural/urban split etc etc. |
Clearly you are right that our lack of testing totally skews our mortality metrics.
There could be a case for arguing that deaths per million of population a better metric for direct country comparison as then testing and infection rates are not required to calculate it.
Another study I heard this morning said that C19 is showing no signs of seasonality although it's early days for that research so far from conclusive.
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| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| UK could be worst hit in Europe on 15:59 - Apr 12 with 2624 views | Pinewoodblue |
It really is too early to jump to conclusions. The conclusion each individual reaches is based on opinion formed by seeking out evidence that supports their view.
It is easy to find evidence that rubbishes almost any conclusion reached . To give just one example. If testing testing and more testing is the key why have Italy’s result so contrasting to those of Germany when Italy, per capita, have carried out more tests than Germany.
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| UK could be worst hit in Europe on 16:02 - Apr 12 with 2617 views | Trequartista |
| UK could be worst hit in Europe on 15:57 - Apr 12 by StokieBlue |
Clearly you are right that our lack of testing totally skews our mortality metrics.
There could be a case for arguing that deaths per million of population a better metric for direct country comparison as then testing and infection rates are not required to calculate it.
Another study I heard this morning said that C19 is showing no signs of seasonality although it's early days for that research so far from conclusive.
SB |
The question i've pondered a lot is why is it ripping through Europe with high mortality rates, and not places like India, developing nations in Africa and places in Asia like Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand where there is a huge amount of people not far from China, and places you'd expect a disease to have more devastation.
I had hoped the warmer climate whilst Europe was still relatively cold was a factor. | |
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| UK could be worst hit in Europe on 16:07 - Apr 12 with 2594 views | LancsBlue |
| UK could be worst hit in Europe on 15:22 - Apr 12 by Herbivore |
I've down arrowed your post because I disagree. We've been far too reactive and on the back foot despite having comparatively more time to plan and prepare than some of our neighbours. Hence our fatality rate being so high. I'm curious as to what you think we've done well. [Post edited 12 Apr 2020 15:22]
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You can add that we did NOTHING until there were already 50 deaths, Boris spent nine days on holiday during those crucial early days and was more concerned in January about whether Big Ben should chime for Brexit day. |  |
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| UK could be worst hit in Europe on 16:07 - Apr 12 with 2594 views | longtimefan |
| UK could be worst hit in Europe on 16:02 - Apr 12 by Trequartista |
The question i've pondered a lot is why is it ripping through Europe with high mortality rates, and not places like India, developing nations in Africa and places in Asia like Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand where there is a huge amount of people not far from China, and places you'd expect a disease to have more devastation.
I had hoped the warmer climate whilst Europe was still relatively cold was a factor. |
I must admit India puzzles me. If there was one country you would expect it to rip through it would be India. | | | |
| UK could be worst hit in Europe on 16:10 - Apr 12 with 2571 views | Bluesquid |
Every death is incredibly sad and tragic and my heart goes out to all of the families and friends of the deceased but not all of this figure is a death as a result of C-19. | | | |
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