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If we get close to the 100k tests shortly 07:16 - May 1 with 1863 viewsbluelagos

https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/uk-51768274

We will have done a million tests nationally. Not bad eh, and nearly a third as many as South Africa* have managed.

Who wanted to go to the pub, on holiday, see their friends, watch the footie...

*According to a report on Newsnight last night, they have done 3m screenings. Will leave original text as that would ruin the flow.

**Screenings include temp tests (cheers Guthers)
[Post edited 1 May 2020 8:34]

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If we get close to the 100k tests shortly on 07:49 - May 1 with 1169 viewsFtnfwest

South Africa has done 207,000 according to online stats. Mind you Spain, Italy and Belgium have all tested 2-3 times (per head) more than us but have death rates still well in excess of ours, so i think there must be just as much a case for testing in the right way, which the Germans thus far seem to have done, as just volume alone.
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If we get close to the 100k tests shortly on 07:50 - May 1 with 1171 viewsgtsb1966

My daughter works for the NHS in Ipswich hospital and has been at work since all this started yet only got tested yesterday even though some staff and patients were diagnosed with the virus weeks before and she suffers from asthma. I've been worried for her safety for a while now. The whole testing saga has been a shambles.
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If we get close to the 100k tests shortly on 07:56 - May 1 with 1154 viewsStokieBlue

I'll have to watch that Newsnight again as I only had it on in the background but I can't find anything which agrees with the * statement.

Look at this for instance:

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/full-list-total-tests-for-covid-19?country=ZA

South Africa also had their lockdown policed at the end of an army rifle - every country it responding differently which is part of the problem I guess.

Whatever the precise numbers the UK still isn't testing anywhere near enough given it's GDP and infrastructure.

SB

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If we get close to the 100k tests shortly on 07:58 - May 1 with 1152 viewsGuthrum

A week ago SA had done 140k tests. Doubt they've managed to up that rate to 2.9m in seven days!

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If we get close to the 100k tests shortly on 08:02 - May 1 with 1142 viewsbluelagos

If we get close to the 100k tests shortly on 07:49 - May 1 by Ftnfwest

South Africa has done 207,000 according to online stats. Mind you Spain, Italy and Belgium have all tested 2-3 times (per head) more than us but have death rates still well in excess of ours, so i think there must be just as much a case for testing in the right way, which the Germans thus far seem to have done, as just volume alone.


The report on newsnight highlighted how they have some expertese from using community workers who previously worked on HIV projects. They are starting to come out of their lockdown today.

One of the charts showed how more effective their lockdown was. Don't pretend to understand why though the increased screening and community tracing was clearly one factor.

Just makes me laugh when people think we are doing well, when a third world country like South Africa appears to be doing an awful lot better. That said, lets hope they dont come out too early and see another outbreak.

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If we get close to the 100k tests shor on 08:04 - May 1 with 1133 viewsbluelagos

If we get close to the 100k tests shortly on 07:56 - May 1 by StokieBlue

I'll have to watch that Newsnight again as I only had it on in the background but I can't find anything which agrees with the * statement.

Look at this for instance:

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/full-list-total-tests-for-covid-19?country=ZA

South Africa also had their lockdown policed at the end of an army rifle - every country it responding differently which is part of the problem I guess.

Whatever the precise numbers the UK still isn't testing anywhere near enough given it's GDP and infrastructure.

SB


Defo quoted three million screenings in last nights report.

If a screening differs from a test, then is this something we could be adopting too?

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If we get close to the 100k tests shortly on 08:07 - May 1 with 1128 viewsGuthrum

If we get close to the 100k tests shortly on 07:49 - May 1 by Ftnfwest

South Africa has done 207,000 according to online stats. Mind you Spain, Italy and Belgium have all tested 2-3 times (per head) more than us but have death rates still well in excess of ours, so i think there must be just as much a case for testing in the right way, which the Germans thus far seem to have done, as just volume alone.


Testing on its own does nothing, merely tells you how many people currently have the illness. It's what you do with the data. If you can use it to isolate cases and as many of their contacts as possible, then that will limit the spread. But that becomes less and less practical the more cases you have, the larger your population and the more densely located.

Germany is an odd one. They haven't particularly limited the spread of Covid, they have just - so far - had an unusually low mortality rate. However, that has begun to rise significantly in the last few days. There is some suspicion that they may have previously had a less dangerous strain prevalant in the country, but now getting outbreaks of one more similar to Italy/Spain/the UK.

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If we get close to the 100k tests shortly on 08:08 - May 1 with 1124 viewsjimmyvet

If we get close to the 100k tests shortly on 07:58 - May 1 by Guthrum

A week ago SA had done 140k tests. Doubt they've managed to up that rate to 2.9m in seven days!


Why can’t we just say well to our health service for getting tests near 100k a days... yes we all want more, yes it would have been great getting 100k a day 4 weeks ago but for goodness sake if they were doing a million a day the normal suspects would be moaning. Getting anywhere near 100k tests a day from where we stood 4 weeks ago is quite remarkable and fantastic work by those working tirelessly in many Government departments, health services, armed forces and private sectors to make this happen. Be interesting to know all those on here who constantly snipe, moan, are experts in everything would have done differently with there undoubted talents being wasted posting on this forum.
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If we get close to the 100k tests shortly on 08:13 - May 1 with 1105 viewsbluelagos

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000hr18/newsnight-30042020

Report from 31 mins.

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If we get close to the 100k tests shortly on 08:14 - May 1 with 1104 viewsGeoffSentence

If we get close to the 100k tests shortly on 08:08 - May 1 by jimmyvet

Why can’t we just say well to our health service for getting tests near 100k a days... yes we all want more, yes it would have been great getting 100k a day 4 weeks ago but for goodness sake if they were doing a million a day the normal suspects would be moaning. Getting anywhere near 100k tests a day from where we stood 4 weeks ago is quite remarkable and fantastic work by those working tirelessly in many Government departments, health services, armed forces and private sectors to make this happen. Be interesting to know all those on here who constantly snipe, moan, are experts in everything would have done differently with there undoubted talents being wasted posting on this forum.


I agree, though there may be plenty about the UK's response to criticise, not least starting the testing program late, I do think that when we do get our act together it should be welcomed.

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If we get close to the 100k tests shortly on 08:16 - May 1 with 1095 viewsGuthrum

If we get close to the 100k tests shortly on 08:08 - May 1 by jimmyvet

Why can’t we just say well to our health service for getting tests near 100k a days... yes we all want more, yes it would have been great getting 100k a day 4 weeks ago but for goodness sake if they were doing a million a day the normal suspects would be moaning. Getting anywhere near 100k tests a day from where we stood 4 weeks ago is quite remarkable and fantastic work by those working tirelessly in many Government departments, health services, armed forces and private sectors to make this happen. Be interesting to know all those on here who constantly snipe, moan, are experts in everything would have done differently with there undoubted talents being wasted posting on this forum.


I doubt we will get that close to 100k per day on a regular basis (it was 83k for the 24 hours up to 9am yesterday, but 40-40k for the 3 days before that). They have effectively saved up for one big push to meet the target.

But that was always an ambition contingent upon having other, faster and easier, forms of testing - particularly the post-infection/antigen one - approved and coming onstream in numbers. That has not happened, as those trialled turned out to be unreliable. So we're still struggling on with the original test - difficult to carry out correctly and not guaranteed to collect samples of the virus even if present.

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If we get close to the 100k tests shor on 08:19 - May 1 with 1081 viewsGuthrum

If we get close to the 100k tests shor on 08:04 - May 1 by bluelagos

Defo quoted three million screenings in last nights report.

If a screening differs from a test, then is this something we could be adopting too?


A "screening" might be as little as taking someone's temperature. But that can be an indication of lots of illnesses, plus is not guaranteed to catch C-19 cases.

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If we get close to the 100k tests shortly on 08:19 - May 1 with 1083 viewsStokieBlue

If we get close to the 100k tests shortly on 08:02 - May 1 by bluelagos

The report on newsnight highlighted how they have some expertese from using community workers who previously worked on HIV projects. They are starting to come out of their lockdown today.

One of the charts showed how more effective their lockdown was. Don't pretend to understand why though the increased screening and community tracing was clearly one factor.

Just makes me laugh when people think we are doing well, when a third world country like South Africa appears to be doing an awful lot better. That said, lets hope they dont come out too early and see another outbreak.


"One of the charts showed how more effective their lockdown was. Don't pretend to understand why though the increased screening and community tracing was clearly one factor."

Maybe because it was policed by the military and nobody was allowed out for any reason except limited shopping - certainly no exercise.

I don't think you'd have supported that as you've said previously we've got it right with people's outdoor access.

Another factor they clearly highlighted on the report was the virus was limited to the rich people who travelled and lived in compounds. It had many less vectors to spread into the general population than in the UK (this is all in the BBC report) so it's not a fair direct comparison.

SB
[Post edited 1 May 2020 8:20]

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If we get close to the 100k tests shortly on 08:19 - May 1 with 1081 viewsitfcjoe

If we get close to the 100k tests shortly on 07:50 - May 1 by gtsb1966

My daughter works for the NHS in Ipswich hospital and has been at work since all this started yet only got tested yesterday even though some staff and patients were diagnosed with the virus weeks before and she suffers from asthma. I've been worried for her safety for a while now. The whole testing saga has been a shambles.


Thanks to your daughter for her bravery gtsb, hopefully she can now be tested and stay safe.

Must have been hard for you all in this shambolic period for frontline staff

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If we get close to the 100k tests shortly on 08:21 - May 1 with 1076 viewsitfcjoe

Looks like setting the target at 100k has worked as has focussed the mind on that and basically achieved it.

Hopefully that number will keep going up until it hits a level that can keep everyone as safe as can be

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If we get close to the 100k tests shortly on 08:26 - May 1 with 1061 viewsSteve_M

If we get close to the 100k tests shortly on 08:16 - May 1 by Guthrum

I doubt we will get that close to 100k per day on a regular basis (it was 83k for the 24 hours up to 9am yesterday, but 40-40k for the 3 days before that). They have effectively saved up for one big push to meet the target.

But that was always an ambition contingent upon having other, faster and easier, forms of testing - particularly the post-infection/antigen one - approved and coming onstream in numbers. That has not happened, as those trialled turned out to be unreliable. So we're still struggling on with the original test - difficult to carry out correctly and not guaranteed to collect samples of the virus even if present.


Yes, sustaining 70-80k tests on a daily basis is a lot more useful than hitting an arbitrary target once for political reasons. It remains to be seen which the UK is closest to acheiving.

And, yes, your other post is correct: testing on its own is a starting point but insufficient to control this virus.

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If we get close to theb 100k tests shortly on 08:26 - May 1 with 1060 viewsbluelagos

If we get close to the 100k tests shortly on 08:21 - May 1 by itfcjoe

Looks like setting the target at 100k has worked as has focussed the mind on that and basically achieved it.

Hopefully that number will keep going up until it hits a level that can keep everyone as safe as can be


Yep, definitely a step forward. But I think comparisons with other countries will be the ultimate assessment of how good/bad we have done.

And on the face of it, a third world country, with far more densely populated communities, appears to have done an amazing job in stemming the spread. We haven't.

I wonder what we could learn and (dare I say it) whether a firmer lockdown is the answer? Or is it all about testing? I genuinely dont know, but I do think we should be looking at where they have had successes and ask what we can do better.

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If we get close to the 100k tests shor on 08:32 - May 1 with 1041 viewsbluelagos

If we get close to the 100k tests shor on 08:19 - May 1 by Guthrum

A "screening" might be as little as taking someone's temperature. But that can be an indication of lots of illnesses, plus is not guaranteed to catch C-19 cases.


Ah, so I jumped the gun. Let me edit original post.

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If we get close to the 100k tests shor on 08:33 - May 1 with 1037 viewsGuthrum

If we get close to the 100k tests shor on 08:32 - May 1 by bluelagos

Ah, so I jumped the gun. Let me edit original post.


That wasn't def info of what the Saffers have actually done, only a suggestion on my part.
[Post edited 1 May 2020 8:35]

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If we get close to theb 100k tests shortly on 08:34 - May 1 with 1035 viewsStokieBlue

If we get close to theb 100k tests shortly on 08:26 - May 1 by bluelagos

Yep, definitely a step forward. But I think comparisons with other countries will be the ultimate assessment of how good/bad we have done.

And on the face of it, a third world country, with far more densely populated communities, appears to have done an amazing job in stemming the spread. We haven't.

I wonder what we could learn and (dare I say it) whether a firmer lockdown is the answer? Or is it all about testing? I genuinely dont know, but I do think we should be looking at where they have had successes and ask what we can do better.


The Newsnight report clearly shows that the demographics of the country (rich/poor) mean that the virus didn't have vectors to spread throughout the population as those people don't ever mix (which is horrible in itself).

So the comparisons are never going to be that fair. They also aren't testing more than us so hard to see how testing is the answer in this case.

Interesting hearing you say that a firmer lockdown might have been the answer given your posts on here for the last 6 weeks. I think we won't actually know that until the harsher lockdowns in similar countries (like Spain and France) are compared to ours.

SB

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If we get close to the 100k tests shortly on 08:35 - May 1 with 1027 viewsgtsb1966

If we get close to the 100k tests shortly on 08:19 - May 1 by itfcjoe

Thanks to your daughter for her bravery gtsb, hopefully she can now be tested and stay safe.

Must have been hard for you all in this shambolic period for frontline staff


Thanks. It seems Ipswich hospital has coped very well with this crisis and unlike elsewhere hasnt run out of PPE. Also I have a mate who used to post on here whose daughter is a frontline nurse at the West Suffolk hospital and she says they have also coped very well and haven't had PPE shortages too. The biggest gripe has been the lack of testing.
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If we get close to theb 100k tests shortly on 08:43 - May 1 with 980 viewsbluelagos

If we get close to theb 100k tests shortly on 08:34 - May 1 by StokieBlue

The Newsnight report clearly shows that the demographics of the country (rich/poor) mean that the virus didn't have vectors to spread throughout the population as those people don't ever mix (which is horrible in itself).

So the comparisons are never going to be that fair. They also aren't testing more than us so hard to see how testing is the answer in this case.

Interesting hearing you say that a firmer lockdown might have been the answer given your posts on here for the last 6 weeks. I think we won't actually know that until the harsher lockdowns in similar countries (like Spain and France) are compared to ours.

SB


Ref a firmer lockdown. I am a firm beleiver in liberty. And I firmly believe there are huge issues with the lockdown on top of the financial aspects.

But this lockdown seems to be dragging on and we have seen a peak, and are we going to be like this for months?

So had we said 6 weeks total lockdown and then we all get out, that might be preferable to 6 months of ongoing...(all hypotheticals)

Anyhow, the answer is 'fiik'.

Although I remain firmly of the belief we should be getting outside for exercise. I suspect shopping is a far bigger issue ref social distancing and I wonder if we could do more to get the food to people's homes rather than them having to go to the shops? Food parcels packed and delivered? Milkman or volunteers go house to house weekly?

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If we get close to theb 100k tests shortly on 08:47 - May 1 with 970 viewsStokieBlue

If we get close to theb 100k tests shortly on 08:43 - May 1 by bluelagos

Ref a firmer lockdown. I am a firm beleiver in liberty. And I firmly believe there are huge issues with the lockdown on top of the financial aspects.

But this lockdown seems to be dragging on and we have seen a peak, and are we going to be like this for months?

So had we said 6 weeks total lockdown and then we all get out, that might be preferable to 6 months of ongoing...(all hypotheticals)

Anyhow, the answer is 'fiik'.

Although I remain firmly of the belief we should be getting outside for exercise. I suspect shopping is a far bigger issue ref social distancing and I wonder if we could do more to get the food to people's homes rather than them having to go to the shops? Food parcels packed and delivered? Milkman or volunteers go house to house weekly?


All fair points.

The only caveat I would add is that quite a few people stretch "exercising" to mean a walk to the park to chat to people allegedly 2m away.

There are going to be many dissertations and studies around all the questions you pose over the next 5 years when the data is clearer and available.

SB

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If we get close to theb 100k tests shortly on 08:50 - May 1 with 953 viewsGuthrum

If we get close to theb 100k tests shortly on 08:43 - May 1 by bluelagos

Ref a firmer lockdown. I am a firm beleiver in liberty. And I firmly believe there are huge issues with the lockdown on top of the financial aspects.

But this lockdown seems to be dragging on and we have seen a peak, and are we going to be like this for months?

So had we said 6 weeks total lockdown and then we all get out, that might be preferable to 6 months of ongoing...(all hypotheticals)

Anyhow, the answer is 'fiik'.

Although I remain firmly of the belief we should be getting outside for exercise. I suspect shopping is a far bigger issue ref social distancing and I wonder if we could do more to get the food to people's homes rather than them having to go to the shops? Food parcels packed and delivered? Milkman or volunteers go house to house weekly?


The biggest problem with compulsory home deliveries or food parcels is the infrastructure (think how hard it is to get a delivery slot at the moment). Not only are there vastly too few delivery personnel (and probably vehicles, too), you also need the people to pick the deliveries and pack them.

Also, that means yet more people handling food items and going door-to-door.

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If we get close to the 100k tests shortly on 08:53 - May 1 with 945 viewsbluelagos

If we get close to the 100k tests shortly on 08:19 - May 1 by StokieBlue

"One of the charts showed how more effective their lockdown was. Don't pretend to understand why though the increased screening and community tracing was clearly one factor."

Maybe because it was policed by the military and nobody was allowed out for any reason except limited shopping - certainly no exercise.

I don't think you'd have supported that as you've said previously we've got it right with people's outdoor access.

Another factor they clearly highlighted on the report was the virus was limited to the rich people who travelled and lived in compounds. It had many less vectors to spread into the general population than in the UK (this is all in the BBC report) so it's not a fair direct comparison.

SB
[Post edited 1 May 2020 8:20]


Agree I wouldnt be supporting gun toting army enforcing lockdowns. I think the context of SA matters here though. They are much more used to guns and enforecement than we are.

And from NF interview posted on here, our levels of compliance have been far higher than was expected. The modeled reduction of interactions was 75%? And has been bigger too.

Anyhow, as ever, we arent going to solve it on Twtd. A socially isolated walk is on the agenda for me, only way I can keep sane :-)

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