| 0.37% infection fatality rate according to this study 18:54 - May 4 with 2723 views | Darth_Koont |
https://www.uni-bonn.de/news/111-2020
Now that means it's a lot more fatal than flu as that is 0.04% to 0.1% depending on whether you test everyone or just count symptomatic cases. But still, it really seems to suggest that with the measures available e.g. more vigilance and better treatment of cases, tracking and tracing, keeping up habits of working from home and social distancing, isolation of those most at risk etc. that we can manage this until a vaccine is available. And without the need for lockdowns when all that is in place.
The bad news? With all the measures and discipline needed to keep it manageable, there's no way we're going to see football with crowds, concerts, packed pubs, cinemas etc. this year. But I think that's a small price to pay if it means we can still reclaim most other areas of our lives. |  |
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| 0.37% infection fatality rate according to this study on 18:56 - May 4 with 2187 views | J2BLUE |
Agree with that. I don't think the vast majority are expecting social distancing to be eased that much. |  |
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| 0.37% infection fatality rate according to this study on 19:00 - May 4 with 2166 views | StokieBlue |
This is coupled with another Germany study from a few weeks back which found that even in a place considered a hotspot for C19 infections due to a carnival held there the penetration into the population was only between 10-15%. They had expected it to be much higher. I believe subsequent studies have found it to possibly be well below 10% in many places.
If you assume 10% infections across the UK and a likely 30000 to 40000 deaths within that cohort of people then scaling that up for more infections across the country speaks for itself.
As you say, there can't be large gatherings of people when those two factors are combined.
SB |  |
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| 0.37% infection fatality rate according to this study on 19:10 - May 4 with 2120 views | Darth_Koont |
| 0.37% infection fatality rate according to this study on 19:00 - May 4 by StokieBlue |
This is coupled with another Germany study from a few weeks back which found that even in a place considered a hotspot for C19 infections due to a carnival held there the penetration into the population was only between 10-15%. They had expected it to be much higher. I believe subsequent studies have found it to possibly be well below 10% in many places.
If you assume 10% infections across the UK and a likely 30000 to 40000 deaths within that cohort of people then scaling that up for more infections across the country speaks for itself.
As you say, there can't be large gatherings of people when those two factors are combined.
SB |
I think the low penetration is also due to how few people are symptomatic compared to normal flu. That's mostly spread by kids at school but not in this case.
So the real issue is preventing healthcare professionals getting it or it getting into care homes etc. That's where it seems to do by far the biggest damage. Not sure how easy that is though, certainly over a year or more until a vaccine is available. We're just not set up for that. | |
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| 0.37% infection fatality rate according to this study on 19:12 - May 4 with 2112 views | J2BLUE |
| 0.37% infection fatality rate according to this study on 19:10 - May 4 by Darth_Koont |
I think the low penetration is also due to how few people are symptomatic compared to normal flu. That's mostly spread by kids at school but not in this case.
So the real issue is preventing healthcare professionals getting it or it getting into care homes etc. That's where it seems to do by far the biggest damage. Not sure how easy that is though, certainly over a year or more until a vaccine is available. We're just not set up for that. |
Why do people keep saying a year until a vaccine when Oxford Uni say they could have one by September? Genuine question. | |
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| 0.37% infection fatality rate according to this study on 19:18 - May 4 with 2091 views | StokieBlue |
| 0.37% infection fatality rate according to this study on 19:10 - May 4 by Darth_Koont |
I think the low penetration is also due to how few people are symptomatic compared to normal flu. That's mostly spread by kids at school but not in this case.
So the real issue is preventing healthcare professionals getting it or it getting into care homes etc. That's where it seems to do by far the biggest damage. Not sure how easy that is though, certainly over a year or more until a vaccine is available. We're just not set up for that. |
I don't think being symptomatic would skew that study as it was based on anti-body testing (although the accuracy of those can be debated).
It is spreadable without symptoms as we know.
SB | |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| 0.37% infection fatality rate according to this study on 19:18 - May 4 with 2087 views | ElderGrizzly |
| 0.37% infection fatality rate according to this study on 19:12 - May 4 by J2BLUE |
Why do people keep saying a year until a vaccine when Oxford Uni say they could have one by September? Genuine question. |
It’s having it in enough quantities that will take 12-18 months. They may very well have early positive clinical trials by September |  | | |
| 0.37% infection fatality rate according to this study on 19:19 - May 4 with 2078 views | J2BLUE |
| 0.37% infection fatality rate according to this study on 19:18 - May 4 by ElderGrizzly |
It’s having it in enough quantities that will take 12-18 months. They may very well have early positive clinical trials by September |
Makes sense. Thank you.
It's a bit worrying that 4/7 places producing the vaccine are abroad. Are they really going to hand it over to us if it works? | |
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| 0.37% infection fatality rate according to this study on 19:21 - May 4 with 2070 views | Mercian |
| 0.37% infection fatality rate according to this study on 19:12 - May 4 by J2BLUE |
Why do people keep saying a year until a vaccine when Oxford Uni say they could have one by September? Genuine question. |
Because a bad vaccine can de deadly. There was a trial back in mid 2000s here in The UK were a dozen or so people died, I am not sure if it was a vaccination but if not thoroughly tested they can do more harm than good. I have read of rare cases were the tested vaccine can actually accelerate the disease. They really do need to be very thorough in testing. Covid 19 is a very nasty but not overly deadly disease.If it had a death rate of Rabies then they might use an under tested vaccine. Thankfully it does not. They could well have a working vaccine by September and even if it had passed trials by then it would still need to mass produced. Mass means mass in this case, a couple of billion perhaps. [Post edited 4 May 2020 19:23]
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| 0.37% infection fatality rate according to this study on 19:22 - May 4 with 2065 views | Trequartista |
| 0.37% infection fatality rate according to this study on 19:18 - May 4 by ElderGrizzly |
It’s having it in enough quantities that will take 12-18 months. They may very well have early positive clinical trials by September |
They've said if it works, there will be a million doses already manufactured, and the UK will be at the front of the queue. |  |
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| 0.37% infection fatality rate according to this study on 19:25 - May 4 with 2048 views | ElderGrizzly |
| 0.37% infection fatality rate according to this study on 19:22 - May 4 by Trequartista |
They've said if it works, there will be a million doses already manufactured, and the UK will be at the front of the queue. |
We need around 45-50 million doses. Probably every year as it mutates too. | | | |
| 0.37% infection fatality rate according to this study on 19:25 - May 4 with 2047 views | Mercian |
| 0.37% infection fatality rate according to this study on 19:22 - May 4 by Trequartista |
They've said if it works, there will be a million doses already manufactured, and the UK will be at the front of the queue. |
I hope it does work and if it does I hope the formula is released into the public domain. | | | |
| 0.37% infection fatality rate according to this study on 19:30 - May 4 with 2026 views | SpruceMoose |
| 0.37% infection fatality rate according to this study on 19:19 - May 4 by J2BLUE |
Makes sense. Thank you.
It's a bit worrying that 4/7 places producing the vaccine are abroad. Are they really going to hand it over to us if it works? |
I'm sure the owner of 'SpruceMoose Medical and 5G Installations INC.' will look after his former countrymates.
Some of them, anyway. |  |
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"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| 0.37% infection fatality rate according to this study on 19:31 - May 4 with 2023 views | SpruceMoose |
| 0.37% infection fatality rate according to this study on 19:25 - May 4 by Mercian |
I hope it does work and if it does I hope the formula is released into the public domain. |
You'll still get plenty of nutters who refuse to take it because of 'muh freedoms' sadly. | |
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"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| 0.37% infection fatality rate according to this study on 19:37 - May 4 with 2001 views | Darth_Koont |
| 0.37% infection fatality rate according to this study on 19:18 - May 4 by StokieBlue |
I don't think being symptomatic would skew that study as it was based on anti-body testing (although the accuracy of those can be debated).
It is spreadable without symptoms as we know.
SB |
Sure. But there seem to be very few confirmed cases of transmission between children and adults.
Take kids almost out of the equation and the spread gets much slower than flu in the general population. | |
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| 0.37% infection fatality rate according to this study on 19:53 - May 4 with 1940 views | Trequartista |
| 0.37% infection fatality rate according to this study on 19:25 - May 4 by ElderGrizzly |
We need around 45-50 million doses. Probably every year as it mutates too. |
Sure but they're already partnered with a manufacturing company, that will ramp up fairly quick if it works. Don't be so negative about everything. | |
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| 0.37% infection fatality rate according to this study on 20:00 - May 4 with 1910 views | ElderGrizzly |
| 0.37% infection fatality rate according to this study on 19:53 - May 4 by Trequartista |
Sure but they're already partnered with a manufacturing company, that will ramp up fairly quick if it works. Don't be so negative about everything. |
Negative and realism are slightly different. Sadly, when you deal with it almost every day it becomes a tad difficult to be a little ray of sunshine
They will of course ramp up quickly, As will all the labs, but the whole world will need it and that will take a long time. | | | |
| 0.37% infection fatality rate according to this study on 20:13 - May 4 with 1876 views | Chutney |
| 0.37% infection fatality rate according to this study on 19:19 - May 4 by J2BLUE |
Makes sense. Thank you.
It's a bit worrying that 4/7 places producing the vaccine are abroad. Are they really going to hand it over to us if it works? |
Alternatively, of all the 195 countries in the world, 3/7 or 43% of the manufacturers of this potential vaccine, as well as the capabilities and expertise to develop the 'recipe' are based in ours. We should be immensely proud if it proves to be the case that the vaccine to combat this unprecedented threat to public health was discovered in our little island, at the labs of one of the worlds most prestigious seats of higher learning.
We should also remember the contribution that our diverse population will have made towards that, and other feats we benefit from on a daily basis, such as the NHS. | | | |
| 0.37% infection fatality rate according to this study on 20:17 - May 4 with 1854 views | blueconscience |
| 0.37% infection fatality rate according to this study on 19:19 - May 4 by J2BLUE |
Makes sense. Thank you.
It's a bit worrying that 4/7 places producing the vaccine are abroad. Are they really going to hand it over to us if it works? |
They will hand it to whoever pays for it. |  |
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| 0.37% infection fatality rate according to this study on 20:28 - May 4 with 1818 views | xrayspecs |
| 0.37% infection fatality rate according to this study on 19:12 - May 4 by J2BLUE |
Why do people keep saying a year until a vaccine when Oxford Uni say they could have one by September? Genuine question. |
Worth knowing we have never made a vaccine for a Coronavirus. What we are attempting has never been done before, albeit the scale of investment is much higher.
No guarantees and even if one is found it will take a very long time to scale production. | | | |
| 0.37% infection fatality rate according to this study on 20:36 - May 4 with 1794 views | Darth_Koont |
| 0.37% infection fatality rate according to this study on 20:28 - May 4 by xrayspecs |
Worth knowing we have never made a vaccine for a Coronavirus. What we are attempting has never been done before, albeit the scale of investment is much higher.
No guarantees and even if one is found it will take a very long time to scale production. |
Indeed. I'm going for a year as it's not the optimistic 6 months but it's not the pessimistic 18+ months.
I also don't think "months" really helps us do what needs to be done. There's a tendency to wait and see but we need to take political, social and economic decisions early and for the long term rather than being so reactive and fixated on the short term.
There's almost a feeling that the government doesn't want to reveal its hand ... which is insane. I expect, as their only real expertise is in media management, that they feel most comfortable responding to events rather than actively leading the way. | |
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| 0.37% infection fatality rate according to this study on 20:47 - May 4 with 1778 views | xrayspecs |
| 0.37% infection fatality rate according to this study on 20:36 - May 4 by Darth_Koont |
Indeed. I'm going for a year as it's not the optimistic 6 months but it's not the pessimistic 18+ months.
I also don't think "months" really helps us do what needs to be done. There's a tendency to wait and see but we need to take political, social and economic decisions early and for the long term rather than being so reactive and fixated on the short term.
There's almost a feeling that the government doesn't want to reveal its hand ... which is insane. I expect, as their only real expertise is in media management, that they feel most comfortable responding to events rather than actively leading the way. |
There is a real possibility that we will fail to develop a vaccine. Even if we do, next years version of Covid is likely to be different to this year as viruses mutate albeit they appear to get less aggressive over time.
The government know a lot more than they are letting on, they normally do btw. They need to slowly introduce ideas so that the population are prepared to go along with what is required rather than hit the nuke button and do a big reveal as this would freak out the public and be counter-productive.
The Sunday morning TV sofa chats and newspaper columns are one way to pre-condition the population for what is coming next. The government start to float ideas ahead of these being confirmed as policies. What was interesting yesterday was the absence of any suggestion that we could be announcing anything this week. What we learned was that Boris will set out a plan next Sunday for what will come next. The reality is that until infection rates and hospitalisations and deaths drop considerably from where we are now, nothing much will change. | | | |
| 0.37% infection fatality rate according to this study on 21:29 - May 4 with 1722 views | StokieBlue |
| 0.37% infection fatality rate according to this study on 19:37 - May 4 by Darth_Koont |
Sure. But there seem to be very few confirmed cases of transmission between children and adults.
Take kids almost out of the equation and the spread gets much slower than flu in the general population. |
Agreed there are few confirmed cases of transmission through this vector but I was listening to a report the other day which stated they might be wrong about this.
At the moment though that is not confirmed.
My point was more than people seem to think a lot of people have had it when the opposite seems to be true. Given this the scope for future deaths is still very large and thus there will be no large gatherings.
SB | |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| 0.37% infection fatality rate according to this study on 21:38 - May 4 with 1700 views | xrayspecs |
| 0.37% infection fatality rate according to this study on 21:29 - May 4 by StokieBlue |
Agreed there are few confirmed cases of transmission through this vector but I was listening to a report the other day which stated they might be wrong about this.
At the moment though that is not confirmed.
My point was more than people seem to think a lot of people have had it when the opposite seems to be true. Given this the scope for future deaths is still very large and thus there will be no large gatherings.
SB |
I would agree with this.
I know lots of folk who think they have had it (and to be fair that may be true) but their symptoms were more common cold/annual lurgy.
I also know a few folk who have almost certainly had it, whose symptoms are so much more than a few days feeling crap. Stellar temperature, delirium, unable to physically function for a few weeks, breathlessness that last weeks and only slowly goes away.
I suspect that a lot fewer people have had Covid than they believe. | | | |
| 0.37% infection fatality rate according to this study on 21:59 - May 4 with 1671 views | J2BLUE |
| 0.37% infection fatality rate according to this study on 20:13 - May 4 by Chutney |
Alternatively, of all the 195 countries in the world, 3/7 or 43% of the manufacturers of this potential vaccine, as well as the capabilities and expertise to develop the 'recipe' are based in ours. We should be immensely proud if it proves to be the case that the vaccine to combat this unprecedented threat to public health was discovered in our little island, at the labs of one of the worlds most prestigious seats of higher learning.
We should also remember the contribution that our diverse population will have made towards that, and other feats we benefit from on a daily basis, such as the NHS. |
You seem to have taken my post as a shot at the UK for some odd reason. | |
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| 0.37% infection fatality rate according to this study on 22:18 - May 4 with 1638 views | Swansea_Blue |
There was a ST piece yesterday talking about how there were an increasing number of studies showing high infection rates and making a case to ease lockdowns. New York was one quoted at 25%. The guy who wrote it is apparently a big star in the epidemiology world. He does look like Ron Jeremy though.
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