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Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places 08:19 - May 8 with 4899 viewsitfcjoe

https://theathletic.co.uk/1800891/2020/05/08/leagueone-league-two-efl-ppg-covent

The English Football League will next week tell clubs in Leagues One and Two there is no chance of playing any more games this season and ask them to vote on a method to decide promotion and relegation.
......

The Athletic understands the EFL board has already received several proposals from clubs, with the current favourite being a points-per-game (PPG) model weighted to reflect how many games the teams have played home and away.

......

The weighted PPG method does not change the top three in League One at all, meaning Coventry City would be crowned champions, with Rotherham United and Oxford United joining them in the Championship next season. The current bottom three – Tranmere Rovers, Southend United and Bolton Wanderers – would still be the bottom three, although Bolton would climb one spot, leaving Southend in last place.

In League Two, Swindon Town would leapfrog Crewe Alexandra into first place, with Plymouth Argyle staying in third but Cheltenham Town climbing over Exeter City to claim the final promotion spot. Stevenage Borough would remain in last place, despite the seven-point deduction Macclesfield Town received on Thursday for failing to fulfill a fixture or pay their players on time.


Other ideas being floated:
These include using the current tables to settle the finishing positions, a non-weighted PPG model and an idea to only count the first half of the season, which would be the first 22 games in League One and 23 games in League Two.

The bit in bold would be an absolutely mental way for us to get promoted.

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Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 08:44 - May 8 with 3345 viewspointofblue

I think clubs will use the argument of us to ensure the half-season model isn’t used. Points per game seems the fairest way to do it though has issues if teams have an, on paper, easier run in.

Still think the season should be suspended until it can be played again properly. 2020/2021 can be truncated from the off if needed as at least everyone will be in the same boat.

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Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 08:45 - May 8 with 3342 viewsC_HealyIsAPleasure

That’s been mooted a few times in the last week - I think the proposal is actually to count the first fixture between each team rather than the first 22 games but yes it’s absolutely mental

If it was strictly the first 22 games we would sneak into third - amusingly at 23 games we would drop to 5th and Bristol Rovers would have been able to leapfrog us in their 22nd game had they been able to win rather than draw away at Fleetwood. It would be the most ridiculously sketchy of promotions

No idea what the table looks like on the first game vs each opposition basis, but assume it’s similar

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To add, having read the article I think the weighted PPG model is quite a good one. I think the only problem with it is that it does err slightly into predicting the future territory and you could argue that if you’re going to weight for home/away then why not take the opposition into account. But accepting no option will be perfect this does seem to be the best route available

I expect Exeter may disagree though!

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Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 09:04 - May 8 with 3245 viewsMullet

Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 08:50 - May 8 by C_HealyIsAPleasure

To add, having read the article I think the weighted PPG model is quite a good one. I think the only problem with it is that it does err slightly into predicting the future territory and you could argue that if you’re going to weight for home/away then why not take the opposition into account. But accepting no option will be perfect this does seem to be the best route available

I expect Exeter may disagree though!


I’ve been pushing PPG from the start as my preference and think it should apply to the Prem too. Any club that doesn’t like it can merely be expelled and fight their way back in or whatever as far as I’m concerned.

As for the models mentioned above, not only would it be the weirdest and most horrible way for us to sneak up somehow, it’d be some sort of weird justice. All the way back to ITV Digital we’ve been a hard luck story, buried by more and more teams getting parachute money we could only dream of etc.

To have that 20 years of terrible management and terrible wrong place, wrong time habit broken a little bit by this would be hilarious.

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Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 09:14 - May 8 with 3200 viewspointofblue

Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 09:04 - May 8 by Mullet

I’ve been pushing PPG from the start as my preference and think it should apply to the Prem too. Any club that doesn’t like it can merely be expelled and fight their way back in or whatever as far as I’m concerned.

As for the models mentioned above, not only would it be the weirdest and most horrible way for us to sneak up somehow, it’d be some sort of weird justice. All the way back to ITV Digital we’ve been a hard luck story, buried by more and more teams getting parachute money we could only dream of etc.

To have that 20 years of terrible management and terrible wrong place, wrong time habit broken a little bit by this would be hilarious.


It would be but, let’s face it, next season would be an even greater embarrassment than 18/19 in terms of results on the pitch.
[Post edited 8 May 2020 9:14]

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Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 09:14 - May 8 with 3202 viewsitfcjoe

Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 08:50 - May 8 by C_HealyIsAPleasure

To add, having read the article I think the weighted PPG model is quite a good one. I think the only problem with it is that it does err slightly into predicting the future territory and you could argue that if you’re going to weight for home/away then why not take the opposition into account. But accepting no option will be perfect this does seem to be the best route available

I expect Exeter may disagree though!


I think the problem with looking at strength of opposition it is then subjective whereas a pure home vs away comparison shows the historic neutral data.

I wonder wheter with it being so tight between Exeter and Cheltenham if there is any merit for a play off for that game if that is the one thing that changes between pure PPG and H/A PPG?

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Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 09:16 - May 8 with 3188 viewsC_HealyIsAPleasure

Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 09:04 - May 8 by Mullet

I’ve been pushing PPG from the start as my preference and think it should apply to the Prem too. Any club that doesn’t like it can merely be expelled and fight their way back in or whatever as far as I’m concerned.

As for the models mentioned above, not only would it be the weirdest and most horrible way for us to sneak up somehow, it’d be some sort of weird justice. All the way back to ITV Digital we’ve been a hard luck story, buried by more and more teams getting parachute money we could only dream of etc.

To have that 20 years of terrible management and terrible wrong place, wrong time habit broken a little bit by this would be hilarious.


To be clear the PPG proposal which The Athletic believe will be used will be weighted home and away. So taking each teams average home ppg and away ppg, extrapolating then for the season and projecting a final table

I think that differs slightly from a straight ppg as whilst the latter is arguably also extrapolating that a teams current ppg will continue, it can also be argued that it is a calculation which just decides the league solely on teams records to date. I’m not sure the same is true of the weighted version as it does start to stray into looking at the fixtures ahead, but I don’t think it’s a bad proposal

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Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 09:26 - May 8 with 3136 viewsC_HealyIsAPleasure

Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 09:14 - May 8 by itfcjoe

I think the problem with looking at strength of opposition it is then subjective whereas a pure home vs away comparison shows the historic neutral data.

I wonder wheter with it being so tight between Exeter and Cheltenham if there is any merit for a play off for that game if that is the one thing that changes between pure PPG and H/A PPG?


But an away game vs Southend is easier than a home one vs Rotherham...

I do think this proposal probably strikes the right balance though

I did think that but where do you draw the line? A team that is a point behind in the final standings would then feel aggrieved and so on, I don’t think you can arbitrarily just decide to play a game here and there

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Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 09:32 - May 8 with 3104 viewsChrisd

Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 09:04 - May 8 by Mullet

I’ve been pushing PPG from the start as my preference and think it should apply to the Prem too. Any club that doesn’t like it can merely be expelled and fight their way back in or whatever as far as I’m concerned.

As for the models mentioned above, not only would it be the weirdest and most horrible way for us to sneak up somehow, it’d be some sort of weird justice. All the way back to ITV Digital we’ve been a hard luck story, buried by more and more teams getting parachute money we could only dream of etc.

To have that 20 years of terrible management and terrible wrong place, wrong time habit broken a little bit by this would be hilarious.


To be fair Mullet, I doubt the half the season model will be seriously considered, besides we aren't that lucky.

[Post edited 8 May 2020 9:33]

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Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 09:39 - May 8 with 3058 viewsitfcjoe

Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 09:26 - May 8 by C_HealyIsAPleasure

But an away game vs Southend is easier than a home one vs Rotherham...

I do think this proposal probably strikes the right balance though

I did think that but where do you draw the line? A team that is a point behind in the final standings would then feel aggrieved and so on, I don’t think you can arbitrarily just decide to play a game here and there


Yeah, there will be winners and losers and it's trying to find the least unfair way rather than the fairest in reality

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Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 09:40 - May 8 with 3066 viewsITFC_Forever

If we go up based on the first 22 games (as it’s a 44 game season) it will be the most undeserving promotion in the history of the game.

And would it be done on first 22 games, or first match against each opposition? As we had already played Gillingham twice and not played Oxford at all in the first 22 matches.

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Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 09:40 - May 8 with 3050 viewsChrisd

Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 09:14 - May 8 by pointofblue

It would be but, let’s face it, next season would be an even greater embarrassment than 18/19 in terms of results on the pitch.
[Post edited 8 May 2020 9:14]


Without a doubt. As a side which supposedly has aspirations of the Championship we look a long way short of it. We need to start building a team and one that can genuinely compete at a higher level. This means blooding a few of our younger players, giving them time to blossom and adjust to first team football, while making some shrewd signings in key areas with proven quality. My main concern is PL, I'm not sure I can trust him as being the right man to take us forward. There's not much substance to back up his managerial credentials over the last 18 months.
[Post edited 8 May 2020 12:08]

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Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 09:42 - May 8 with 3037 viewspointofblue

Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 09:40 - May 8 by ITFC_Forever

If we go up based on the first 22 games (as it’s a 44 game season) it will be the most undeserving promotion in the history of the game.

And would it be done on first 22 games, or first match against each opposition? As we had already played Gillingham twice and not played Oxford at all in the first 22 matches.


Not much of a difference for us though - our second game against Gillingham was a draw, our first match against Oxford was a draw. Could make a difference for other sides, admittedly.

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Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 09:43 - May 8 with 3036 viewsJakeITFC

Points per game is such an intrinsically unfair way of settling things, but it’s obviously the easiest way to explain to people what’s happening with the minimum of upheaval to positions.

I can’t see us ever being in a world where they use a proper mathematical model to predict the outcome of the remaining games unfortunately.

As an aside, I hadn’t realise quite how bad our home performance was - only 3 points above Bolton!
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Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 09:43 - May 8 with 3030 viewsitfcjoe

Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 09:40 - May 8 by Chrisd

Without a doubt. As a side which supposedly has aspirations of the Championship we look a long way short of it. We need to start building a team and one that can genuinely compete at a higher level. This means blooding a few of our younger players, giving them time to blossom and adjust to first team football, while making some shrewd signings in key areas with proven quality. My main concern is PL, I'm not sure I can trust him as being the right man to take us forward. There's not much substance to back up his managerial credentials over the last 18 months.
[Post edited 8 May 2020 12:08]


Yep, even if we were to go up this year had the season finished we didn't look in great shape. I couldn't even tell you where we need to strengthen as a priority as we have no identity as a team and just a mish mash of players.

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Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 09:43 - May 8 by itfcjoe

Yep, even if we were to go up this year had the season finished we didn't look in great shape. I couldn't even tell you where we need to strengthen as a priority as we have no identity as a team and just a mish mash of players.


Defensively we were ok, except for the shambles against Peterborough and at Lincoln. We had nothing going forward whatsoever and that was always a risk going into the season with two strikers not proven above League Two and a further two with injury issues and hardly prolific. Our midfield should have been able to step up to the plate considering the supposed quality in the centre of the park but the lack of design and identity has hurt us.

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Defensively we were ok, except for the shambles against Peterborough and at Lincoln. We had nothing going forward whatsoever and that was always a risk going into the season with two strikers not proven above League Two and a further two with injury issues and hardly prolific. Our midfield should have been able to step up to the plate considering the supposed quality in the centre of the park but the lack of design and identity has hurt us.


Yep, agree with that entirely, but even at the back we've flipped between a 3 at the back and 4 at the back when we only have 3 CBs in the squad - if we were to commit to that as a style then need recruitment there, if we aren't then what we have is fine.......

Just a lack of idnetity going forwards and inability to actually create chances, we only seem to have more shots if Norwood is on the pitch as has a greedier attitude, but Jackson and Norwood have fed off scraps in reality, the game hasn't been played through the thirds in any way, we've just sat on possession at the back with no idea what to do with it as change shape and personnel so often.

When you look at first half at Coventry away, and you think why not try to play this way more often, but Lambert has tried to be too clever for his own good, and relied on having better players rather than outr own style

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If we go up based on the first 22 games (as it’s a 44 game season) it will be the most undeserving promotion in the history of the game.

And would it be done on first 22 games, or first match against each opposition? As we had already played Gillingham twice and not played Oxford at all in the first 22 matches.


Second most undeserved. Arsenal finished below Spurs when they were invited to join the top flight.

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Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 10:18 - May 8 with 2888 viewsChrisd

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Yep, agree with that entirely, but even at the back we've flipped between a 3 at the back and 4 at the back when we only have 3 CBs in the squad - if we were to commit to that as a style then need recruitment there, if we aren't then what we have is fine.......

Just a lack of idnetity going forwards and inability to actually create chances, we only seem to have more shots if Norwood is on the pitch as has a greedier attitude, but Jackson and Norwood have fed off scraps in reality, the game hasn't been played through the thirds in any way, we've just sat on possession at the back with no idea what to do with it as change shape and personnel so often.

When you look at first half at Coventry away, and you think why not try to play this way more often, but Lambert has tried to be too clever for his own good, and relied on having better players rather than outr own style


Couldn't agree more with your concluding paragraph, that's exactly how I see it too. PL was trying to be too clever.

I know I've bored you with this before about my thoughts defensively so I'm not going to go over old ground in depth, but there are still question marks over us at the back and it could be that we keep switching from one formation to another which doesn't help matters. You've got to ask is Holy good enough? LB position is still up for grabs and personally I would really like a dominant CB to deal with high balls. The back up options aren't good enough.

Although we created the 4th highest shots on target in L1, which I'm really surprised about, we're so laboured in our passing and move the ball too slowly, it's easy for teams to get back in position to defend against us. We lack pace and the gap between our strikers and midfield is frightening at times. Norwood or Jackson get drawn wide chasing a ball down the flanks, we might have 1 or no one in the box against 3 or 4 defenders. If we can see these things as mere supporters, what's PL doing to earning his money?
[Post edited 8 May 2020 10:20]

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Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 10:26 - May 8 with 2854 viewsMullet

Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 09:16 - May 8 by C_HealyIsAPleasure

To be clear the PPG proposal which The Athletic believe will be used will be weighted home and away. So taking each teams average home ppg and away ppg, extrapolating then for the season and projecting a final table

I think that differs slightly from a straight ppg as whilst the latter is arguably also extrapolating that a teams current ppg will continue, it can also be argued that it is a calculation which just decides the league solely on teams records to date. I’m not sure the same is true of the weighted version as it does start to stray into looking at the fixtures ahead, but I don’t think it’s a bad proposal


I'd happily take either method as I think ultimately we deserve to finish midtable given how bad we've done.

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Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 10:30 - May 8 with 2840 viewsChrisd

Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 10:26 - May 8 by Mullet

I'd happily take either method as I think ultimately we deserve to finish midtable given how bad we've done.


Exactly, certainly leading up to when lockdown commenced, for a side with 4 wins from the last 20 odd games you don't deserve to be anywhere near promotion consideration.

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Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 10:45 - May 8 with 2787 viewsitfcjoe

Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 09:26 - May 8 by C_HealyIsAPleasure

But an away game vs Southend is easier than a home one vs Rotherham...

I do think this proposal probably strikes the right balance though

I did think that but where do you draw the line? A team that is a point behind in the final standings would then feel aggrieved and so on, I don’t think you can arbitrarily just decide to play a game here and there


On a second look, when you think about that method is does seem to doubly punish teams.

We've got a PPG at home of 1.3ish, that means for the remaining home games we get given 6.5 points - despite playing Bolton, Southend and MK who have the worst away records in the league, plus Rochdale.

I'm sure there are other sides in similar position where it matters.

Think there needs to be some form of stregth of schedule comparison, i.e. a formula which looks at average home form vs your opponents average away form as otherwise may as well just go strict ppg

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Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 10:45 - May 8 by itfcjoe

On a second look, when you think about that method is does seem to doubly punish teams.

We've got a PPG at home of 1.3ish, that means for the remaining home games we get given 6.5 points - despite playing Bolton, Southend and MK who have the worst away records in the league, plus Rochdale.

I'm sure there are other sides in similar position where it matters.

Think there needs to be some form of stregth of schedule comparison, i.e. a formula which looks at average home form vs your opponents average away form as otherwise may as well just go strict ppg


Be fair, I’d be pleasantly surprised if we got seven points from Southend, Bolton, MK Dons and Rochdale - for starters it’d mean we’d only lose to one of them.

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Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 10:49 - May 8 with 2772 viewsGuthrum

Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 09:43 - May 8 by JakeITFC

Points per game is such an intrinsically unfair way of settling things, but it’s obviously the easiest way to explain to people what’s happening with the minimum of upheaval to positions.

I can’t see us ever being in a world where they use a proper mathematical model to predict the outcome of the remaining games unfortunately.

As an aside, I hadn’t realise quite how bad our home performance was - only 3 points above Bolton!


Unfortunately, there's no such thing as a mathematical model which can predict the outcome of football matches anywhere near accurately. Too much is down to chance: Team/player morale on the day, the bounce of a ball, if someone's foot slips, if a defender is distracted, or a striker is at the vital moment, managerial brainstorms (bad or good), which way the wind is blowing, the weather generally, what someone ate for breakfast ... so many unquantifiable factors.

If such a thing did exist, betting companies would be very much poorer.
[Post edited 8 May 2020 11:10]

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Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 10:49 - May 8 with 2766 viewsPecker

I would take it though, promotion that is. Beggers can't be choosers.
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