| Over 100 new cases in Seoul linked to Clubs and Bars 07:57 - May 12 with 1528 views | homer_123 |
Their highest number of cases in weeks.
Pleased that we haven't really changed or relaxed, gives us time to assess how others are doing and what we can learn from them. |  |
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| Over 100 new cases in Seoul linked to Clubs and Bars on 08:09 - May 12 with 1483 views | gordon |
The key thing about this story is that in South Korea they have the infrastructure to follow up and quickly detect all those 100 new cases, which means they can have a more open society. We're still months away from having a similar set-up.
And given that our best estimate is that around 130,000 are currently infected in the UK, it's going to be a long, long time before we're able to focus on singular infection events like this. [Post edited 12 May 2020 8:09]
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| Over 100 new cases in Seoul linked to Clubs and Bars on 08:17 - May 12 with 1461 views | StokieBlue |
| Over 100 new cases in Seoul linked to Clubs and Bars on 08:09 - May 12 by gordon |
The key thing about this story is that in South Korea they have the infrastructure to follow up and quickly detect all those 100 new cases, which means they can have a more open society. We're still months away from having a similar set-up.
And given that our best estimate is that around 130,000 are currently infected in the UK, it's going to be a long, long time before we're able to focus on singular infection events like this. [Post edited 12 May 2020 8:09]
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They can also use their tracking app to let others know they may be infected and test them. I saw an article the other day which said only 50% of Brits were willing to install any C19 tracking app.
SB |  |
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| Over 100 new cases in Seoul linked to Clubs and Bars on 08:22 - May 12 with 1449 views | gordon |
| Over 100 new cases in Seoul linked to Clubs and Bars on 08:17 - May 12 by StokieBlue |
They can also use their tracking app to let others know they may be infected and test them. I saw an article the other day which said only 50% of Brits were willing to install any C19 tracking app.
SB |
Yes, it's not so much about the App, it's about having the public health workers on the ground who can follow up quickly to find the people, get them tested and get those results quickly and get in touch with another tranche of potential infectees.
The app that we're going to use (as it stands) won't have much effect in the absence of a functioning public health infrastructure.
Additionally, in the UK we've just contracted out large-scale testing to the private sector because that was the best way to hit the arbitrary target, but getting results back quickly to trace infections as quickly as possible requires it to be embedded in public health infrastructure. We haven't got that, so now we put together an effective tracing system now is anyone's guess.
Our failure for months to effectively trace infections will be the next crisis/disaster. [Post edited 12 May 2020 8:27]
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| Over 100 new cases in Seoul linked to Clubs and Bars on 08:26 - May 12 with 1432 views | StokieBlue |
| Over 100 new cases in Seoul linked to Clubs and Bars on 08:22 - May 12 by gordon |
Yes, it's not so much about the App, it's about having the public health workers on the ground who can follow up quickly to find the people, get them tested and get those results quickly and get in touch with another tranche of potential infectees.
The app that we're going to use (as it stands) won't have much effect in the absence of a functioning public health infrastructure.
Additionally, in the UK we've just contracted out large-scale testing to the private sector because that was the best way to hit the arbitrary target, but getting results back quickly to trace infections as quickly as possible requires it to be embedded in public health infrastructure. We haven't got that, so now we put together an effective tracing system now is anyone's guess.
Our failure for months to effectively trace infections will be the next crisis/disaster. [Post edited 12 May 2020 8:27]
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How do you know the tranche of potential infectees without the app? Nobody knows who they have come in contact with all day unless you have something like that.
Agree that you need all cogs in place to be fully effective though.
SB | |
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| Over 100 new cases in Seoul linked to Clubs and Bars on 08:30 - May 12 with 1421 views | gordon |
| Over 100 new cases in Seoul linked to Clubs and Bars on 08:26 - May 12 by StokieBlue |
How do you know the tranche of potential infectees without the app? Nobody knows who they have come in contact with all day unless you have something like that.
Agree that you need all cogs in place to be fully effective though.
SB |
Everyone who went to the club had to sign in at reception.
The app is obviously important, but in the UK it's not going to make much difference because our testing is so slow, and it's not going to be based on actual infections, just on people reporting symptoms. | | | |
| Over 100 new cases in Seoul linked to Clubs and Bars on 08:31 - May 12 with 1422 views | Plums |
| Over 100 new cases in Seoul linked to Clubs and Bars on 08:17 - May 12 by StokieBlue |
They can also use their tracking app to let others know they may be infected and test them. I saw an article the other day which said only 50% of Brits were willing to install any C19 tracking app.
SB |
You have Vote Leave, Dominic Cummings and Cambridge Analytica to thank for that. This cabinet is not a group of people who have any shred of credibility when it comes to requesting the public do anything with technology - regardless of how it works. |  |
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| Over 100 new cases in Seoul linked to Clubs and Bars on 08:33 - May 12 with 1417 views | hampstead_blue |
Scary.
It proves that some industries may have to fail just to make sure we've the infrastructure in place WHEN and not if we get a rebound. |  |
| Assumption is to make an ass out of you and me.
Those who assume they know you, when they don't are just guessing.
Those who assume and insist they know are daft and in denial.
Those who assume, insist, and deny the truth are plain stupid.
Those who assume, insist, deny the truth and tell YOU they know you (when they don't) have an IQ in the range of 35-49.
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| Over 100 new cases in Seoul linked to Clubs and Bars on 08:45 - May 12 with 1382 views | gordon |
| Over 100 new cases in Seoul linked to Clubs and Bars on 08:33 - May 12 by hampstead_blue |
Scary.
It proves that some industries may have to fail just to make sure we've the infrastructure in place WHEN and not if we get a rebound. |
From the approach so far, and the COVID alert level gimmick, it looks like were choosing a strategy of intermittent lockdowns, which could decimate business because of the uncertainty.
Why we aren't even trying to manage the infection using public health infrastructure is really difficult to understand. | | | |
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| Over 100 new cases in Seoul linked to Clubs and Bars on 08:52 - May 12 with 1362 views | StokieBlue |
| Over 100 new cases in Seoul linked to Clubs and Bars on 08:30 - May 12 by gordon |
Everyone who went to the club had to sign in at reception.
The app is obviously important, but in the UK it's not going to make much difference because our testing is so slow, and it's not going to be based on actual infections, just on people reporting symptoms. |
But the people at the club are a small subset of people that individual would have come in contact with during their infectious period. Sure, you can just look at the people in the club but that's not really covering much.
None of this was really my point though - the point was that in this country 50% are unwilling to even install the app even if it was brilliant and we infinite testing with results in 5 minutes.
It's just a totally different mindset for some people whereby their own perceived privacy is more important than the goals of the country as a whole.
SB [Post edited 12 May 2020 8:53]
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| Over 100 new cases in Seoul linked to Clubs and Bars on 09:02 - May 12 with 1342 views | gordon |
| Over 100 new cases in Seoul linked to Clubs and Bars on 08:52 - May 12 by StokieBlue |
But the people at the club are a small subset of people that individual would have come in contact with during their infectious period. Sure, you can just look at the people in the club but that's not really covering much.
None of this was really my point though - the point was that in this country 50% are unwilling to even install the app even if it was brilliant and we infinite testing with results in 5 minutes.
It's just a totally different mindset for some people whereby their own perceived privacy is more important than the goals of the country as a whole.
SB [Post edited 12 May 2020 8:53]
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There's certainly an element of that, but I think the messaging from the Government right from the start just hasn't been clear enough to bring people together behind a common position.
We've never really known whether we were just managing the spread, or whether we're trying to actually eradicate the virus - if we had made clear that we were throwing everything at eradicating the virus right from the start and treating every single life as valuable, then I think we'd really be able to rally people behind a national effort.
I'd use the app if it were part of a genuine attempt to suppress and eradicate the virus, but it isn't, it's just PR, really. (another edit!) What I mean is that an app only works effectively in conjunction with rapid testing and effective contact tracers, otherwise it's pretty pointless. [Post edited 12 May 2020 9:05]
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| Over 100 new cases in Seoul linked to Clubs and Bars on 12:49 - May 12 with 1230 views | hampstead_blue |
| Over 100 new cases in Seoul linked to Clubs and Bars on 08:45 - May 12 by gordon |
From the approach so far, and the COVID alert level gimmick, it looks like were choosing a strategy of intermittent lockdowns, which could decimate business because of the uncertainty.
Why we aren't even trying to manage the infection using public health infrastructure is really difficult to understand. |
I don't think the Threat level is a gimmick.
It's ubiquitous in the military and works.
The medical infrastructure, well I'm no expert there but can say that the sheer number of Armed Forces working on testing ought to put us in a better position by the day.
I'm sure there are the right people working on how to adapt the current infrastructure to best deal with what is required over the coming periods.
With regard to uncertainty, well I do think that a lot of businesses will fail. That is inevitable and sad. The Sunday Times has had a good amount of articles written by entrepreneurs with the view that the upturn will be led by those with the brains and guts to get stuck in.
I'm looking at the upside, normally do, and think that some of the firms which fail are probably not that well run and the sectors which get hit really hard will have to adapt.
That is a grim fact of life which is not pleasant or easy to accpet but it's true. | |
| Assumption is to make an ass out of you and me.
Those who assume they know you, when they don't are just guessing.
Those who assume and insist they know are daft and in denial.
Those who assume, insist, and deny the truth are plain stupid.
Those who assume, insist, deny the truth and tell YOU they know you (when they don't) have an IQ in the range of 35-49.
| | Poll: | Best Blackpool goal |
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| Over 100 new cases in Seoul linked to Clubs and Bars on 13:39 - May 12 with 1178 views | Swansea_Blue |
| Over 100 new cases in Seoul linked to Clubs and Bars on 08:22 - May 12 by gordon |
Yes, it's not so much about the App, it's about having the public health workers on the ground who can follow up quickly to find the people, get them tested and get those results quickly and get in touch with another tranche of potential infectees.
The app that we're going to use (as it stands) won't have much effect in the absence of a functioning public health infrastructure.
Additionally, in the UK we've just contracted out large-scale testing to the private sector because that was the best way to hit the arbitrary target, but getting results back quickly to trace infections as quickly as possible requires it to be embedded in public health infrastructure. We haven't got that, so now we put together an effective tracing system now is anyone's guess.
Our failure for months to effectively trace infections will be the next crisis/disaster. [Post edited 12 May 2020 8:27]
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We had someone at work who was off for several weeks with suspected infection after showing all the symptoms. They're back now, but they still haven't had test results back in nearly 2 weeks and last they heard their sample had been sent to America for analysis. No idea when the results are likely to be back.
I think that illustrates your point quite nicely. A 2-3 weeks wait for results makes a effective test and trace impossible under the current isolation guidelines. |  |
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| Over 100 new cases in Seoul linked to Clubs and Bars on 13:54 - May 12 with 1166 views | StokieBlue |
| Over 100 new cases in Seoul linked to Clubs and Bars on 13:39 - May 12 by Swansea_Blue |
We had someone at work who was off for several weeks with suspected infection after showing all the symptoms. They're back now, but they still haven't had test results back in nearly 2 weeks and last they heard their sample had been sent to America for analysis. No idea when the results are likely to be back.
I think that illustrates your point quite nicely. A 2-3 weeks wait for results makes a effective test and trace impossible under the current isolation guidelines. |
Totally agree that test and trace is impossible at the moment.
That wasn't the point I was making. The point was that even if quick testing was available and it was practical the survey showed 50% still wouldn't install the app.
SB | |
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| Over 100 new cases in Seoul linked to Clubs and Bars on 14:03 - May 12 with 1152 views | gordon |
| Over 100 new cases in Seoul linked to Clubs and Bars on 13:39 - May 12 by Swansea_Blue |
We had someone at work who was off for several weeks with suspected infection after showing all the symptoms. They're back now, but they still haven't had test results back in nearly 2 weeks and last they heard their sample had been sent to America for analysis. No idea when the results are likely to be back.
I think that illustrates your point quite nicely. A 2-3 weeks wait for results makes a effective test and trace impossible under the current isolation guidelines. |
Yes, because we've rushed to get to the 100,000 target we've built a centralised system designed to achieve impressive looking numbers, but which isn't going to be anywhere near quick enough to be fit for purpose.
The countries that have been successful have done so with really good, well-funded, integrated, public health systems. | | | |
| Over 100 new cases in Seoul linked to Clubs and Bars on 14:04 - May 12 with 1148 views | gordon |
| Over 100 new cases in Seoul linked to Clubs and Bars on 13:54 - May 12 by StokieBlue |
Totally agree that test and trace is impossible at the moment.
That wasn't the point I was making. The point was that even if quick testing was available and it was practical the survey showed 50% still wouldn't install the app.
SB |
If people thought it was going to be effective and not basically a PR stunt that number would be higher. | | | |
| Over 100 new cases in Seoul linked to Clubs and Bars on 14:19 - May 12 with 1135 views | StokieBlue |
| Over 100 new cases in Seoul linked to Clubs and Bars on 14:04 - May 12 by gordon |
If people thought it was going to be effective and not basically a PR stunt that number would be higher. |
That wasn't the basis of the report, it had nothing to do with the effectiveness, people were citing privacy concerns and distrust of the government.
I would hope that in reality you are right though and most people would. After a bit more reading the uptake would need to be higher than 60% to be effective. Apparently Singapores app only has 17% uptake which I find incredibly low.
SB [Post edited 12 May 2020 14:23]
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| Over 100 new cases in Seoul linked to Clubs and Bars on 14:26 - May 12 with 1119 views | flimflam |
| Over 100 new cases in Seoul linked to Clubs and Bars on 08:09 - May 12 by gordon |
The key thing about this story is that in South Korea they have the infrastructure to follow up and quickly detect all those 100 new cases, which means they can have a more open society. We're still months away from having a similar set-up.
And given that our best estimate is that around 130,000 are currently infected in the UK, it's going to be a long, long time before we're able to focus on singular infection events like this. [Post edited 12 May 2020 8:09]
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Doctor on one of the breakfast shows said that they believe anywhere between 3 and 6 million have had it at some point in the UK. |  |
| All men and women are created, by the, you know the, you know the thing. |
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| Over 100 new cases in Seoul linked to Clubs and Bars on 14:44 - May 12 with 1106 views | StokieBlue |
| Over 100 new cases in Seoul linked to Clubs and Bars on 14:26 - May 12 by flimflam |
Doctor on one of the breakfast shows said that they believe anywhere between 3 and 6 million have had it at some point in the UK. |
That's only between 5% and 10% of the population though which does tally with some early research out of Germany.
It also means that in his opinion between 62m and 65m people in the UK haven't had it.
Let that sink in for a bit.
SB | |
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