| Expert suggests UK has ‘more immunity than estimated’ as study says 19m ‘l on 08:42 - May 18 with 1075 views | DanTheMan |
Isn't Sikora the guy who has been absurdly optimistic since this began? |  |
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| Expert suggests UK has ‘more immunity than estimated’ as study says 19m ‘l on 08:43 - May 18 with 1074 views | GlasgowBlue |
Karol Sikora is a always a very positive read amongst so many negative stories.
He may well be over optimistic but I always cheered by reading him each day. |  |
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| Expert suggests UK has ‘more immunity than estimated’ as study says 19m ‘l on 08:44 - May 18 with 1071 views | SomethingBlue |
Not sure I'd be leading a piece with Sikora although I *do* think Covid absolutely ripped through London in the second half of Feb/first half of March and many people here have had it. |  |
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| Expert suggests UK has ‘more immunity than estimated’ as study says 19m ‘l on 08:44 - May 18 with 1054 views | Herbivore |
I find that highly improbable. |  |
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| Expert suggests UK has ‘more immunity than estimated’ as study says 19m ‘l on 08:47 - May 18 with 1033 views | giant_stow |
| Expert suggests UK has ‘more immunity than estimated’ as study says 19m ‘l on 08:44 - May 18 by SomethingBlue |
Not sure I'd be leading a piece with Sikora although I *do* think Covid absolutely ripped through London in the second half of Feb/first half of March and many people here have had it. |
Why not out of interest?
Would be nice if the virus has nowherr left to go in london. |  |
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| Expert suggests UK has ‘more immunity than estimated’ as study says 19m ‘l on 08:50 - May 18 with 1023 views | StokieBlue |
That's pretty much the opposite of what most of the other studies are saying.
Would be great if true but doesn't seem to stack up.
SB |  |
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| Expert suggests UK has ‘more immunity than estimated’ as study says 19m ‘l on 09:00 - May 18 with 964 views | homer_123 |
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| Expert suggests UK has ‘more immunity than estimated’ as study says 19m ‘l on 09:05 - May 18 with 947 views | bluelagos |
| Expert suggests UK has ‘more immunity than estimated’ as study says 19m ‘l on 08:50 - May 18 by StokieBlue |
That's pretty much the opposite of what most of the other studies are saying.
Would be great if true but doesn't seem to stack up.
SB |
Agree on both points. It is consistent with London having an r rate lower than the regions though. I.e. Transmissions are dropping because we have had so many caes in London.
Asked before, any thoughts on why London rate of transmission is lower? We all locked down at the same time and if anything, London is more densely populated making social distancing harder. |  |
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| Expert suggests UK has ‘more immunity than estimated’ as study says 19m ‘l on 09:15 - May 18 with 905 views | gordon |
The study he's referring to has ripped to shreds by other epidemiologists and scientists. Loads of basic errors.
As an aside, Sikora is the guy who was paid by the Libyan Government to say that one of the Lockerbie bombers only had months to live. He went on to live for ten years.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1291939/Fury-Lockerbie-bomber-doctor-Ka [Post edited 18 May 2020 9:23]
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| Expert suggests UK has ‘more immunity than estimated’ as study says 19m ‘l on 09:19 - May 18 with 893 views | ElderGrizzly |
He is completely out of line with the rest of the world view on this then.
Spain and France was estimated less than 5% had immunity.
"No more than five per cent of the population of France and Spain, two of the countries hardest hit by coronavirus, have contracted the disease, two new studies have found in a major blow to hopes of "herd immunity".
A mere 4.4 per cent of the French population — 2.8 million people — have been infected, according to findings by the Pasteur Institue, published in the journal Science and based on models applied to hospital and death data.
Even in the worst hit parts of France, the eastern area and the Paris region, the infection rate only reaches between nine and 10 per cent on average, the research found" |  | | |
| Expert suggests UK has ‘more immunity than estimated’ as study says 19m ‘l on 09:21 - May 18 with 887 views | gordon |
| Expert suggests UK has ‘more immunity than estimated’ as study says 19m ‘l on 09:15 - May 18 by gordon |
The study he's referring to has ripped to shreds by other epidemiologists and scientists. Loads of basic errors.
As an aside, Sikora is the guy who was paid by the Libyan Government to say that one of the Lockerbie bombers only had months to live. He went on to live for ten years.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1291939/Fury-Lockerbie-bomber-doctor-Ka [Post edited 18 May 2020 9:23]
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Here's the best takedown of the paper:
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| Expert suggests UK has ‘more immunity than estimated’ as study says 19m ‘l on 09:22 - May 18 with 880 views | StokieBlue |
| Expert suggests UK has ‘more immunity than estimated’ as study says 19m ‘l on 09:05 - May 18 by bluelagos |
Agree on both points. It is consistent with London having an r rate lower than the regions though. I.e. Transmissions are dropping because we have had so many caes in London.
Asked before, any thoughts on why London rate of transmission is lower? We all locked down at the same time and if anything, London is more densely populated making social distancing harder. |
I don't specifically know why London would have an R that is so much lower than the rest of the country. I would caveat that it's a single study that has suggested this.
If true it could be due to London being hit hard much earlier and people taking it upon themselves not to mingle too much even before the lockdown was announced thus there was an earlier effect.
That is conjecture though.
SB | |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Expert suggests UK has ‘more immunity than estimated’ as study says 19m ‘l on 09:24 - May 18 with 870 views | giant_stow |
| Expert suggests UK has ‘more immunity than estimated’ as study says 19m ‘l on 09:21 - May 18 by gordon |
Here's the best takedown of the paper:
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lunchtime reading - ta!
Fair enough all | |
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| Expert suggests UK has ‘more immunity than estimated’ as study says 19m ‘l on 09:24 - May 18 with 874 views | hype313 |
| Expert suggests UK has ‘more immunity than estimated’ as study says 19m ‘l on 09:19 - May 18 by ElderGrizzly |
He is completely out of line with the rest of the world view on this then.
Spain and France was estimated less than 5% had immunity.
"No more than five per cent of the population of France and Spain, two of the countries hardest hit by coronavirus, have contracted the disease, two new studies have found in a major blow to hopes of "herd immunity".
A mere 4.4 per cent of the French population — 2.8 million people — have been infected, according to findings by the Pasteur Institue, published in the journal Science and based on models applied to hospital and death data.
Even in the worst hit parts of France, the eastern area and the Paris region, the infection rate only reaches between nine and 10 per cent on average, the research found" |
But what that does suggest is that Covid isn't as contagious as first thought, if we're running the same numbers as France and Spain ie 4% of the population, especially given that we were so slow to react and the fact that mass sporting events took place. |  |
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| Expert suggests UK has ‘more immunity than estimated’ as study says 19m ‘l on 09:24 - May 18 with 871 views | gordon |
| Expert suggests UK has ‘more immunity than estimated’ as study says 19m ‘l on 09:00 - May 18 by homer_123 |
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That's a snapshot, rather than an estimate of how many may have had it since the outbreak began. | | | |
| Expert suggests UK has ‘more immunity than estimated’ as study says 19m ‘l on 09:25 - May 18 with 865 views | gordon |
| Expert suggests UK has ‘more immunity than estimated’ as study says 19m ‘l on 09:24 - May 18 by hype313 |
But what that does suggest is that Covid isn't as contagious as first thought, if we're running the same numbers as France and Spain ie 4% of the population, especially given that we were so slow to react and the fact that mass sporting events took place. |
We don't know that our numbers are the same as France and Spain yet. | | | |
| Expert suggests UK has ‘more immunity than estimated’ as study says 19m ‘l on 09:25 - May 18 with 866 views | ElderGrizzly |
| Expert suggests UK has ‘more immunity than estimated’ as study says 19m ‘l on 09:15 - May 18 by gordon |
The study he's referring to has ripped to shreds by other epidemiologists and scientists. Loads of basic errors.
As an aside, Sikora is the guy who was paid by the Libyan Government to say that one of the Lockerbie bombers only had months to live. He went on to live for ten years.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1291939/Fury-Lockerbie-bomber-doctor-Ka [Post edited 18 May 2020 9:23]
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He is also the Chief of Medicine at a set of private hospitals who are currently crippled by the Coronavirus pandemic and need Government to open up quickly.
I am all for optimism, but it can be dangerous if people take what he says at face value. [Post edited 18 May 2020 9:26]
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| Expert suggests UK has ‘more immunity than estimated’ as study says 19m ‘l on 09:27 - May 18 with 853 views | StokieBlue |
| Expert suggests UK has ‘more immunity than estimated’ as study says 19m ‘l on 09:24 - May 18 by hype313 |
But what that does suggest is that Covid isn't as contagious as first thought, if we're running the same numbers as France and Spain ie 4% of the population, especially given that we were so slow to react and the fact that mass sporting events took place. |
I think the contagiousness of C19 is pretty well established now.
There are too many variables to draw a linear conclusion like that. We don't know when the virus entered each country and took hold, we don't know the base levels of each country before lockdown and Spain was still holding sporting events at the time you've cited.
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| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Expert suggests UK has ‘more immunity than estimated’ as study says 19m ‘l on 09:28 - May 18 with 842 views | Swansea_Blue |
| Expert suggests UK has ‘more immunity than estimated’ as study says 19m ‘l on 08:42 - May 18 by DanTheMan |
Isn't Sikora the guy who has been absurdly optimistic since this began? |
Got great hips though. Waka waka  |  |
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| Expert suggests UK has ‘more immunity than estimated’ as study says 19m ‘l on 09:30 - May 18 with 828 views | DanTheMan |
| Expert suggests UK has ‘more immunity than estimated’ as study says 19m ‘l on 09:21 - May 18 by gordon |
Here's the best takedown of the paper:
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https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1261058066495074304.html
Bit easier to read through here. Was very interesting. | |
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| Expert suggests UK has ‘more immunity than estimated’ as study says 19m ‘l on 09:31 - May 18 with 825 views | gordon |
| Expert suggests UK has ‘more immunity than estimated’ as study says 19m ‘l on 09:25 - May 18 by ElderGrizzly |
He is also the Chief of Medicine at a set of private hospitals who are currently crippled by the Coronavirus pandemic and need Government to open up quickly.
I am all for optimism, but it can be dangerous if people take what he says at face value. [Post edited 18 May 2020 9:26]
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That's right, he's been quite cynical in using his apparent expertise to represent the interests of his private healthcare company throughout the pandemic, in a way which is pretty awful, in my opinion. | | | |
| Expert suggests UK has ‘more immunity than estimated’ as study says 19m ‘l on 09:33 - May 18 with 816 views | ElderGrizzly |
| Expert suggests UK has ‘more immunity than estimated’ as study says 19m ‘l on 09:22 - May 18 by StokieBlue |
I don't specifically know why London would have an R that is so much lower than the rest of the country. I would caveat that it's a single study that has suggested this.
If true it could be due to London being hit hard much earlier and people taking it upon themselves not to mingle too much even before the lockdown was announced thus there was an earlier effect.
That is conjecture though.
SB |
Newspaper report here on the low R number in London and the continued stubbornness of it in the North, where it is more than double.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-london-lockdown-restrictio | | | |
| Expert suggests UK has ‘more immunity than estimated’ as study says 19m ‘l on 09:35 - May 18 with 792 views | StokieBlue |
Doesn't say why though and is referring back to the same single study. Would like to see other studies confirming the lower R before they consider opening up more stuff.
Also might affect people moving about, if some areas are more open than others you might get people travelling from closed to open areas within the country (technically allowed) to do things but with that comes the higher chance they are infected.
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| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Expert suggests UK has ‘more immunity than estimated’ as study says 19m ‘l on 09:38 - May 18 with 773 views | gordon |
I'm not convinced by this stuff about a low R value in London - what's happening is that the effect of the lockdown had greater effect in London (because everything is normally so crowded there), so infections are coming down from a much higher peak.
This might give a much lower R number, but doesn't necessarily mean that it makes sense to re-open things - it's really the absolute level of infection that is more important in determining this. | | | |
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