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Meanwhile, you may have missed this 08:35 - May 27 with 3482 viewsbluelagos


Sunday Times insight team report into the back modelling that demonstrates how the virus spread whilst Boris Johnson dithered about implementing a lockdown.

By implication, 10s of thousands of people have died because of this..

It is copyrighted..so anyone who wants a read, will need to google it....
[Post edited 27 May 2020 8:43]

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Meanwhile, you may have missed this on 09:20 - May 27 with 1744 viewsSwansea_Blue

Yeah, this was the news of the day while everyone was jumping up and down about Cummings' day out (as important the larger implications of his undermining the lockdown laws are).

A Tory unnecessary death toll would be quite something. Add this to the excess homeless (>500 per year) and other service failings ~120,000 from health & social care cuts) and it's probably getting close to the Iraq War totals now, depending on whose figures you believe! Not that it's a competition, but 'yeah but Iraq' seems to be the standard response when you try to show concern or compassion about people dying unnecessarily. God, I'm sounding like Callis
[Post edited 27 May 2020 9:20]

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Meanwhile, you may have missed this on 09:28 - May 27 with 1732 viewsmonytowbray

tRuSt ThE sCiEnCe.

I’m amazed we’ve even managed to get this far and still have a large chunk of the population think this is going well.

Bots flying about on social media in full force. Culture war on the media. Promises being flogged through the back door. A senior advisor with some worrying views on immigration, integration and eugenics.

Who was it on here who said “sleepwalking into fascism” again?

TWTD never forgets…
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Meanwhile, you may have missed this on 09:38 - May 27 with 1724 viewsbluelagos

Meanwhile, you may have missed this on 09:28 - May 27 by monytowbray

tRuSt ThE sCiEnCe.

I’m amazed we’ve even managed to get this far and still have a large chunk of the population think this is going well.

Bots flying about on social media in full force. Culture war on the media. Promises being flogged through the back door. A senior advisor with some worrying views on immigration, integration and eugenics.

Who was it on here who said “sleepwalking into fascism” again?


There's a few positives here. The Tories are being held to account with the scientists challenging the "following the science" narrative when it is clear they were not.

The modelled scenarios of the lockdown (which bounced the govt into a change of strategy*) weren't even at the govt' s requests. The scientists did them as they thought the politiicans weren't following the evidence about the severe impact of the virus.

The scientists have now back modelled and demostrated how the govt lack of action allowed the virus to spread. Their failure to act promptly, even when they decided to act, cost 10s of thousands of lives. That is indisputable imho. And the Sunday Times is about as establishment as it gets.

The truth is getting out, slowly...

Poll: This new lockdown poll - what you reckon?

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Meanwhile, you may have missed this on 09:48 - May 27 with 1692 viewsBeckets

Meanwhile, you may have missed this on 09:38 - May 27 by bluelagos

There's a few positives here. The Tories are being held to account with the scientists challenging the "following the science" narrative when it is clear they were not.

The modelled scenarios of the lockdown (which bounced the govt into a change of strategy*) weren't even at the govt' s requests. The scientists did them as they thought the politiicans weren't following the evidence about the severe impact of the virus.

The scientists have now back modelled and demostrated how the govt lack of action allowed the virus to spread. Their failure to act promptly, even when they decided to act, cost 10s of thousands of lives. That is indisputable imho. And the Sunday Times is about as establishment as it gets.

The truth is getting out, slowly...


If they were a business they’d potentially be looking at a corporate manslaughter charge.
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Meanwhile, you may have missed this on 10:11 - May 27 with 1661 viewsMarshalls_Mullet

Meanwhile, you may have missed this on 09:28 - May 27 by monytowbray

tRuSt ThE sCiEnCe.

I’m amazed we’ve even managed to get this far and still have a large chunk of the population think this is going well.

Bots flying about on social media in full force. Culture war on the media. Promises being flogged through the back door. A senior advisor with some worrying views on immigration, integration and eugenics.

Who was it on here who said “sleepwalking into fascism” again?


BCWYWF.

The obsession of the left with Corbyns uneclectable manifesto gave the Tory party and open goal and a huge majority.

A government is only as strong as it's opposition, and this is now being played out.

Don't expect any change for 4.5 years.

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Meanwhile, you may have missed this on 11:52 - May 27 with 1557 viewsDarth_Koont

Meanwhile, you may have missed this on 10:11 - May 27 by Marshalls_Mullet

BCWYWF.

The obsession of the left with Corbyns uneclectable manifesto gave the Tory party and open goal and a huge majority.

A government is only as strong as it's opposition, and this is now being played out.

Don't expect any change for 4.5 years.


A government is only as good as the truth will allow. The Cummings story made the truth unavoidable for the majority and in the media too.

Unfortunately, for so long we've been pretty rubbish at holding them to account for anything, so it wouldn't surprise me if Johnson and Cummings tough it out until normal service resumes.

Pronouns: He/Him

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Meanwhile, you may have missed this on 12:53 - May 27 with 1502 viewssparks

Meanwhile, you may have missed this on 09:48 - May 27 by Beckets

If they were a business they’d potentially be looking at a corporate manslaughter charge.


Not if they acted on reasonable expert advice.

Which they may have done- but the lack of transparency means we dont know.

I did note an interesting change in wording yesterday- someone from government (I think) used the phrase "in consulation with experts" rather than stating that experts advice had been followed.

The presence of those seeking the truth is infinitely to be preferred to the presence of those who think they've found it. (Sir Terry Pratchett)
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Meanwhile, you may have missed this on 13:00 - May 27 with 1477 viewsBeckets

Meanwhile, you may have missed this on 12:53 - May 27 by sparks

Not if they acted on reasonable expert advice.

Which they may have done- but the lack of transparency means we dont know.

I did note an interesting change in wording yesterday- someone from government (I think) used the phrase "in consulation with experts" rather than stating that experts advice had been followed.


Allegedly the strategy to open schools to Reception, Years 1 and 6 was not one of the permutations put forward by the scientists.
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Meanwhile, you may have missed this on 13:03 - May 27 with 1468 viewsbluelagos

Meanwhile, you may have missed this on 12:53 - May 27 by sparks

Not if they acted on reasonable expert advice.

Which they may have done- but the lack of transparency means we dont know.

I did note an interesting change in wording yesterday- someone from government (I think) used the phrase "in consulation with experts" rather than stating that experts advice had been followed.


The thrust of the ST piece is that didn't act on reasonable expert advice. That they didn't take the strong actions when they needed to. Even when they grasped the need to lockdown to save lives, they took 9 days to do it.

Poll: This new lockdown poll - what you reckon?

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Meanwhile, you may have missed this on 13:04 - May 27 with 1464 viewssparks

Meanwhile, you may have missed this on 13:03 - May 27 by bluelagos

The thrust of the ST piece is that didn't act on reasonable expert advice. That they didn't take the strong actions when they needed to. Even when they grasped the need to lockdown to save lives, they took 9 days to do it.


Unless or until we see the minutes of those SAGE meetings and know specifically what advice was given, we are speculating.

The presence of those seeking the truth is infinitely to be preferred to the presence of those who think they've found it. (Sir Terry Pratchett)
Poll: Is Fred drunk this morning?

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Meanwhile, you may have missed this on 13:08 - May 27 with 1440 viewsbluelagos

Meanwhile, you may have missed this on 13:04 - May 27 by sparks

Unless or until we see the minutes of those SAGE meetings and know specifically what advice was given, we are speculating.


Except the members of SAGE are speaking out. One example below. And the timeline is not in dispute. The lockdown was Mar 23rd. The report from the UCL guys was 9 days earlier.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52764645

Poll: This new lockdown poll - what you reckon?

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Meanwhile, you may have missed this on 13:11 - May 27 with 1420 viewslowhouseblue

Meanwhile, you may have missed this on 13:08 - May 27 by bluelagos

Except the members of SAGE are speaking out. One example below. And the timeline is not in dispute. The lockdown was Mar 23rd. The report from the UCL guys was 9 days earlier.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52764645


the guy you've linked only joined sage a month ago. how would he know what advice was given at the time?

And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show

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Meanwhile, you may have missed this on 13:13 - May 27 with 1419 viewssparks

Meanwhile, you may have missed this on 13:08 - May 27 by bluelagos

Except the members of SAGE are speaking out. One example below. And the timeline is not in dispute. The lockdown was Mar 23rd. The report from the UCL guys was 9 days earlier.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52764645


Thats hindsight to an extent.

He says that the government "would have received" advice from Whitty et al. We dont know what that advice was. Nor does he say that he gave or was directly aware of explicit advice being given to lockdown at that stage.

The presence of those seeking the truth is infinitely to be preferred to the presence of those who think they've found it. (Sir Terry Pratchett)
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Meanwhile, you may have missed this on 13:15 - May 27 with 1405 viewsbluelagos

Meanwhile, you may have missed this on 13:11 - May 27 by lowhouseblue

the guy you've linked only joined sage a month ago. how would he know what advice was given at the time?


Feel free to read the ST article. I would link but that would open me to 101 comments about copyright.

They are clear in what they say. And I have no insight myself. (Don't shoot the messenger :-) )

Poll: This new lockdown poll - what you reckon?

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Meanwhile, you may have missed this on 13:15 - May 27 with 1396 viewssparks

Meanwhile, you may have missed this on 13:15 - May 27 by bluelagos

Feel free to read the ST article. I would link but that would open me to 101 comments about copyright.

They are clear in what they say. And I have no insight myself. (Don't shoot the messenger :-) )


You are quite entitled to link- its still hosted on the ST site, so no obvious copyright issue.

The presence of those seeking the truth is infinitely to be preferred to the presence of those who think they've found it. (Sir Terry Pratchett)
Poll: Is Fred drunk this morning?

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Meanwhile, you may have missed this on 13:17 - May 27 with 1383 viewsbluelagos

Meanwhile, you may have missed this on 13:13 - May 27 by sparks

Thats hindsight to an extent.

He says that the government "would have received" advice from Whitty et al. We dont know what that advice was. Nor does he say that he gave or was directly aware of explicit advice being given to lockdown at that stage.


Have you read the ST article? It is online is you do a thorough google. They are clear that the advice was given that there would be 500k deaths without action and then again (The UCL report) that even with the proposed actions, still 200k deaths.

The dates of the report is not in dispute and it is online somewhere. That was 9 days before the lockdown. Not sure what more you need tbh?

Poll: This new lockdown poll - what you reckon?

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Meanwhile, you may have missed this on 13:18 - May 27 with 1378 viewsbluelagos

Meanwhile, you may have missed this on 13:15 - May 27 by sparks

You are quite entitled to link- its still hosted on the ST site, so no obvious copyright issue.


It's behind the paywall.

Poll: This new lockdown poll - what you reckon?

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Meanwhile, you may have missed this on 13:20 - May 27 with 1357 viewslowhouseblue

Meanwhile, you may have missed this on 13:17 - May 27 by bluelagos

Have you read the ST article? It is online is you do a thorough google. They are clear that the advice was given that there would be 500k deaths without action and then again (The UCL report) that even with the proposed actions, still 200k deaths.

The dates of the report is not in dispute and it is online somewhere. That was 9 days before the lockdown. Not sure what more you need tbh?


9 days before the 23rd, but 2 days before the 16th. they clearly had a staged approach to introducing the lockdown, the first step was on the 16th - the behavioural psychology advice they received is therefore also significant. the 16th was clearly an attempt to get people to buy in to what was coming.

And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show

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Meanwhile, you may have missed this on 13:21 - May 27 with 1365 viewsBeckets

Meanwhile, you may have missed this on 13:18 - May 27 by bluelagos

It's behind the paywall.


I’ve read it. It’s damning. Starmer will be all over this. Johnson has some very uncomfortable PMQs ahead.
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Meanwhile, you may have missed this on 13:24 - May 27 with 1345 viewssparks

Meanwhile, you may have missed this on 13:17 - May 27 by bluelagos

Have you read the ST article? It is online is you do a thorough google. They are clear that the advice was given that there would be 500k deaths without action and then again (The UCL report) that even with the proposed actions, still 200k deaths.

The dates of the report is not in dispute and it is online somewhere. That was 9 days before the lockdown. Not sure what more you need tbh?


I havent read it - no.

Does it explicitly say that the government were told that lockdown must happen at X- date, and that the government ignored it?

The presence of those seeking the truth is infinitely to be preferred to the presence of those who think they've found it. (Sir Terry Pratchett)
Poll: Is Fred drunk this morning?

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Meanwhile, you may have missed this on 13:33 - May 27 with 1313 viewsbluelagos

Meanwhile, you may have missed this on 13:24 - May 27 by sparks

I havent read it - no.

Does it explicitly say that the government were told that lockdown must happen at X- date, and that the government ignored it?


It states many things. One of which is that they were told that there would be 500k deaths. They then took some actions (Wash yer hands etc.) and they were then told that all these actions would still mean 200K+ deaths. (The report that is online)

It states that at that point they grasped/accepted the need for a lockdown but that they dithered (ST Headline - not my word) and took 9 days to implement it.

It states much more too - such as how they have edited a video where BJ tells people to carry on as normal in early March.

Anyhow - rather than go through it line by line (Is 3 pages long) it is findable with a google and/or subscription.

Poll: This new lockdown poll - what you reckon?

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Meanwhile, you may have missed this on 13:36 - May 27 with 1302 viewssparks

Meanwhile, you may have missed this on 13:33 - May 27 by bluelagos

It states many things. One of which is that they were told that there would be 500k deaths. They then took some actions (Wash yer hands etc.) and they were then told that all these actions would still mean 200K+ deaths. (The report that is online)

It states that at that point they grasped/accepted the need for a lockdown but that they dithered (ST Headline - not my word) and took 9 days to implement it.

It states much more too - such as how they have edited a video where BJ tells people to carry on as normal in early March.

Anyhow - rather than go through it line by line (Is 3 pages long) it is findable with a google and/or subscription.


It sounds like it does not say what I asked.

I have other things to do- but the point I make is that they said at the time they were following the advice. If they were not- then that is a massive issue. I am not entirely clear whether this article contains evidence that they received and ignored clear advice.

The presence of those seeking the truth is infinitely to be preferred to the presence of those who think they've found it. (Sir Terry Pratchett)
Poll: Is Fred drunk this morning?

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Meanwhile, you may have missed this on 13:40 - May 27 with 1288 viewslowhouseblue

Meanwhile, you may have missed this on 13:33 - May 27 by bluelagos

It states many things. One of which is that they were told that there would be 500k deaths. They then took some actions (Wash yer hands etc.) and they were then told that all these actions would still mean 200K+ deaths. (The report that is online)

It states that at that point they grasped/accepted the need for a lockdown but that they dithered (ST Headline - not my word) and took 9 days to implement it.

It states much more too - such as how they have edited a video where BJ tells people to carry on as normal in early March.

Anyhow - rather than go through it line by line (Is 3 pages long) it is findable with a google and/or subscription.


your 9 days point - this is the newspaper coverage of the announcement of 16th March. that's 2 days later not 9.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/17/life-put-on-hold-what-the-papers-s

And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show

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Meanwhile, you may have missed this on 13:41 - May 27 with 1283 viewsbluelagos

Meanwhile, you may have missed this on 13:36 - May 27 by sparks

It sounds like it does not say what I asked.

I have other things to do- but the point I make is that they said at the time they were following the advice. If they were not- then that is a massive issue. I am not entirely clear whether this article contains evidence that they received and ignored clear advice.


I'll be as clear as I can. (I am off shortly so can't do much more)

They were told if they didn't lockdown and carried on with their current policies, 200k deaths would happen.

The article states that they accepted that advice and then took 9 days to lockdown.

I don't think the model (which is available online) went into dates of when they should act. It modeled scenarios of policy. The policy they adopted was (according to the article) delayed to the point that the virus spread far more than it would have done if they had locked down when they got the report.

Poll: This new lockdown poll - what you reckon?

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Meanwhile, you may have missed this on 13:44 - May 27 with 1273 viewsbluelagos

Meanwhile, you may have missed this on 13:40 - May 27 by lowhouseblue

your 9 days point - this is the newspaper coverage of the announcement of 16th March. that's 2 days later not 9.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/17/life-put-on-hold-what-the-papers-s


It's not my point - it's the ST.

And the lockdown was not until Mar 23rd. The modelling shows that the govt actions of that week were not sufficient to delay the spread.

(Don't blame me - I didn't write the news report!)

I am off - genuinely.

Poll: This new lockdown poll - what you reckon?

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