Please log in or register. Registered visitors get fewer ads.
Forum index | Previous Thread | Next thread
There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today 08:12 - May 28 with 6670 viewsSteve_M

The bleak numbers should not hide the number of individual tragedies within, years of productive life lost, people unable to say goodbye to relatives or mourn them properly.

With an important caveat for those countries who are lying about deaths the UK has the worst per capita death toll, and the second highest in globally.

https://www.ft.com/content/6b4c784e-c259-4ca4-9a82-648ffde71bf0

Should be free to read.

Poll: When are the squad numbers out?
Blog: Cycle of Hurt

4
There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 08:21 - May 28 with 2416 viewsDubtractor

This graph is one of the most compelling I've seen so far. Timing of lockdown seems so critical in determining the outcome.

Though it is another graph with an abomination of a scale on it!

https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/https%3A%2F%2Fd6c748xw2
[Post edited 28 May 2020 8:22]

I was born underwater, I dried out in the sun. I started humping volcanoes baby, when I was too young.
Poll: How confident are you of promotion now? Predicted final position...

0
There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 08:24 - May 28 with 2388 viewsDarth_Koont

Interesting as well that London isn't that far ahead of say the North West and West Midlands.

Unlike even the US where the New York City-New Jersey concentration has seen massive losses, ours look much more evenly spread. So not sure we can use the excuse that London as a global metropolis has particularly skewed our figures.

This looks to be much more a picture of our national preparedness and response than anything else.

Pronouns: He/Him

1
There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 08:31 - May 28 with 2367 viewsbluelagos

Cheers. The XY graph of country excess deaths vs estimated lockdown day infections is compelling evidence that the delayed lockdown led to increased deaths. At a time when the virus was doubling every 3 days, simply put, so was the number of deaths.

Not sure how anyone can still support these clowns when their inability to lockdown promptly has led to such a huge numbers of dead people. And the govt quotes in there are little more than attempts to deflect responsibility imho.

Poll: This new lockdown poll - what you reckon?

2
There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 08:36 - May 28 with 2353 viewsPlums

There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 08:31 - May 28 by bluelagos

Cheers. The XY graph of country excess deaths vs estimated lockdown day infections is compelling evidence that the delayed lockdown led to increased deaths. At a time when the virus was doubling every 3 days, simply put, so was the number of deaths.

Not sure how anyone can still support these clowns when their inability to lockdown promptly has led to such a huge numbers of dead people. And the govt quotes in there are little more than attempts to deflect responsibility imho.


Horrific numbers. The Tories like their war comparisons: we’re now past the total killed in the Blitz and closing in on the total number of UK civilian war dead between 40 and 45. Absolutely shameful and as other countries are showing, unnecessary.

It's 106 miles to Portman Road, we've got a full tank of gas, half a round of Port Salut, it's dark... and we're wearing blue tinted sunglasses.
Poll: Which recent triallist should we have signed?

0
There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 08:41 - May 28 with 2334 viewsbluelagos

There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 08:21 - May 28 by Dubtractor

This graph is one of the most compelling I've seen so far. Timing of lockdown seems so critical in determining the outcome.

Though it is another graph with an abomination of a scale on it!

https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/https%3A%2F%2Fd6c748xw2
[Post edited 28 May 2020 8:22]


Cotty might be able to confirm, but going back to my studies...

One way you correlate something that is exponential is you put it on a logarithmic scale and then do some sort of estimation from the gradient. Really racking my memory here cos I studied all this (inc modelling diseases) 30 years ago but the scale is logarithmic rather than just rubbish :-)

Poll: This new lockdown poll - what you reckon?

1
There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 08:42 - May 28 with 2327 viewsSteve_M

There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 08:24 - May 28 by Darth_Koont

Interesting as well that London isn't that far ahead of say the North West and West Midlands.

Unlike even the US where the New York City-New Jersey concentration has seen massive losses, ours look much more evenly spread. So not sure we can use the excuse that London as a global metropolis has particularly skewed our figures.

This looks to be much more a picture of our national preparedness and response than anything else.


I think London's size and global connectedness are definitely important factors, no doubt the levels of relative poverty too. The small size of the UK also is too though.

I suspect there is more internal travel within the UK than the US relative to population size, i.e. people in London have relatives nationally and thus the slowness to restrict travel had a large impact on the spread of the disease.

Poll: When are the squad numbers out?
Blog: Cycle of Hurt

0
There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 08:47 - May 28 with 2308 viewsDubtractor

There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 08:41 - May 28 by bluelagos

Cotty might be able to confirm, but going back to my studies...

One way you correlate something that is exponential is you put it on a logarithmic scale and then do some sort of estimation from the gradient. Really racking my memory here cos I studied all this (inc modelling diseases) 30 years ago but the scale is logarithmic rather than just rubbish :-)


I use a lot of data and modelling etc in my job, but in fairness never with ranges this wide, so never rarely need to use jiggerypokery to present it.

Just bothers me a little that the way things are presented, remarkably, makes us look better than we actually are to the untrained eye. With a non adjusted scale we would be miles out in the top right.

I'll google logarithmic scales though.
[Post edited 28 May 2020 8:49]

I was born underwater, I dried out in the sun. I started humping volcanoes baby, when I was too young.
Poll: How confident are you of promotion now? Predicted final position...

0
There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 08:54 - May 28 with 2299 viewsartsbossbeard

Been following Chris Giles on twitter for a while now and its absolutely staggering that what he's been predicting is sadly coming to fruition.

One tweet I saw from him said something on the lines of "I'm looking at a current death toll of around 60k but let's be conservative (no pun intended) on the numbers and say 55k presently.

Sobering.

Please note: prior to hitting the post button, I've double checked for anything that could be construed as "Anti Semitic" and to the best of my knowledge it isn't. Anything deemed to be of a Xenophobic nature is therefore purely accidental or down to your own misconstruing.
Poll: Raining in IP8 - shall I get the washing in?

0
Login to get fewer ads

There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 08:56 - May 28 with 2290 viewsDarth_Koont

There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 08:42 - May 28 by Steve_M

I think London's size and global connectedness are definitely important factors, no doubt the levels of relative poverty too. The small size of the UK also is too though.

I suspect there is more internal travel within the UK than the US relative to population size, i.e. people in London have relatives nationally and thus the slowness to restrict travel had a large impact on the spread of the disease.


Agree that there's certainly more of a risk of a spread but proximity hasn't been the same factor in many other similarly dense countries and regions.

The extreme comparison is with say countries like Singapore where despite being one of the most densely populated countries in the world as well as a global hub closer to the outbreak, the death rate has been kept down to just 23 deaths.

They're also a country at the top of the rankings for healthcare provision. As we're seeing in the UK and elsewhere the availability of healthcare and the quality of protection in hospitals and care homes looks to be the biggest factor.

Pronouns: He/Him

0
There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 09:01 - May 28 with 2272 viewsSteve_M

There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 08:47 - May 28 by Dubtractor

I use a lot of data and modelling etc in my job, but in fairness never with ranges this wide, so never rarely need to use jiggerypokery to present it.

Just bothers me a little that the way things are presented, remarkably, makes us look better than we actually are to the untrained eye. With a non adjusted scale we would be miles out in the top right.

I'll google logarithmic scales though.
[Post edited 28 May 2020 8:49]


John Burn-Murdoch, the FT data journalist, has posted about why he used log scales in these graphs.

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch

This isn't the main one that was a few weeks back:


Poll: When are the squad numbers out?
Blog: Cycle of Hurt

1
There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 09:01 - May 28 with 2266 viewsFreddies_Ears

There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 08:47 - May 28 by Dubtractor

I use a lot of data and modelling etc in my job, but in fairness never with ranges this wide, so never rarely need to use jiggerypokery to present it.

Just bothers me a little that the way things are presented, remarkably, makes us look better than we actually are to the untrained eye. With a non adjusted scale we would be miles out in the top right.

I'll google logarithmic scales though.
[Post edited 28 May 2020 8:49]


The log scale is pretty much essential to be able to show this kind of data in a readable way - it you have a minute, try plotting what it would look like otherwise on a piece of paper!

I used log scales a heck of a lot in a previous dayjob, that evaluated catastrophe risks for insurers and governments.

It would be helpful - since most people arent used to them - to put a few more data points, as it isn't obvious how to read the scale in-between 10,000 - 100,000 (etc).

Back on the main topic, this graph essentially proves the catastrophe of the late lockdown in the UK. Given that even the money-grabbing Premier League had shut itself down a week (6 days?) before the government lockdown took effect... If we had locked down at the same rate of infection (per head of population) as others, the graph shows we'd have saved around two-thirds to three-quarters of the lives lost. That single government (in)decision has resulted in the death of at least 40,000 people.
1
There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 09:08 - May 28 with 2250 viewsFreddies_Ears

"With an important caveat for those countries who are lying about deaths the UK has the worst per capita death toll, and the second highest in globally." (OP)

The excess deaths data is cleaner than any CV19 data, as it isn't dependent on varying definitions of what constitutes a CV19 death. (It doesn't mean that every single excess death is CV19-related, though that's not really relevant). We have only really realised the scale of CV19-era excess mortality in UK since the ONS stats started to be reported - the daily UK government stats are becoming less and less important as we can now consider the real numbers. And it is not a good look.
1
There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 09:13 - May 28 with 2226 viewsSteve_M

There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 09:08 - May 28 by Freddies_Ears

"With an important caveat for those countries who are lying about deaths the UK has the worst per capita death toll, and the second highest in globally." (OP)

The excess deaths data is cleaner than any CV19 data, as it isn't dependent on varying definitions of what constitutes a CV19 death. (It doesn't mean that every single excess death is CV19-related, though that's not really relevant). We have only really realised the scale of CV19-era excess mortality in UK since the ONS stats started to be reported - the daily UK government stats are becoming less and less important as we can now consider the real numbers. And it is not a good look.


I would agree with that.

Chris Giles of the FT said earlier this week (on Twitter) that he thought the gap between ONS and government figures was much reduced now, presumably because testing capacity has improved and that the number of very ill people has reduced (either by recovery or death).

Poll: When are the squad numbers out?
Blog: Cycle of Hurt

0
There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 09:18 - May 28 with 2201 viewsSwansea_Blue

There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 09:01 - May 28 by Freddies_Ears

The log scale is pretty much essential to be able to show this kind of data in a readable way - it you have a minute, try plotting what it would look like otherwise on a piece of paper!

I used log scales a heck of a lot in a previous dayjob, that evaluated catastrophe risks for insurers and governments.

It would be helpful - since most people arent used to them - to put a few more data points, as it isn't obvious how to read the scale in-between 10,000 - 100,000 (etc).

Back on the main topic, this graph essentially proves the catastrophe of the late lockdown in the UK. Given that even the money-grabbing Premier League had shut itself down a week (6 days?) before the government lockdown took effect... If we had locked down at the same rate of infection (per head of population) as others, the graph shows we'd have saved around two-thirds to three-quarters of the lives lost. That single government (in)decision has resulted in the death of at least 40,000 people.


Yeah, standard approach. It probably would have been useful to put a little explainer on to help people.

It's quite a shocking position to be. I've been following their updates for a while, so this isn't a surprise. But the anger and frustration is still there.

Poll: Do you think Pert is key to all of this?

0
There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 09:21 - May 28 with 2185 viewsDarth_Koont

There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 09:01 - May 28 by Freddies_Ears

The log scale is pretty much essential to be able to show this kind of data in a readable way - it you have a minute, try plotting what it would look like otherwise on a piece of paper!

I used log scales a heck of a lot in a previous dayjob, that evaluated catastrophe risks for insurers and governments.

It would be helpful - since most people arent used to them - to put a few more data points, as it isn't obvious how to read the scale in-between 10,000 - 100,000 (etc).

Back on the main topic, this graph essentially proves the catastrophe of the late lockdown in the UK. Given that even the money-grabbing Premier League had shut itself down a week (6 days?) before the government lockdown took effect... If we had locked down at the same rate of infection (per head of population) as others, the graph shows we'd have saved around two-thirds to three-quarters of the lives lost. That single government (in)decision has resulted in the death of at least 40,000 people.


Also that if they were following the herd immunity approach this would rely on levels of preparedness with PPE etc, underlying health in the population and the ability to protect the elderly that were far beyond us.

It seems that it was only when the reality hit them of what was happening on the ground (particularly in London hospitals) that they finally grasped that full picture. And suddenly a lockdown was the only way forward.

But that shows a pretty non-scientific and irrational assessment of the available information back in February and early March. They seem to have gone with what sounded easiest and best for a government who already wants fewer regulations on market forces and constraints on producer/consumer liberties.

Pronouns: He/Him

0
There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 10:15 - May 28 with 2083 viewsSteve_M

There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 08:56 - May 28 by Darth_Koont

Agree that there's certainly more of a risk of a spread but proximity hasn't been the same factor in many other similarly dense countries and regions.

The extreme comparison is with say countries like Singapore where despite being one of the most densely populated countries in the world as well as a global hub closer to the outbreak, the death rate has been kept down to just 23 deaths.

They're also a country at the top of the rankings for healthcare provision. As we're seeing in the UK and elsewhere the availability of healthcare and the quality of protection in hospitals and care homes looks to be the biggest factor.


Singapore dealt with the initial influx of cases well but with one major flaw - they ignored the large number of migrant workers on which the state depends. Their lockdown is currently far stricter than most globally as a result.

Certainly the experience of SARS lead to far better preparedness in many Asian countries than in Europe.

Poll: When are the squad numbers out?
Blog: Cycle of Hurt

0
There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 10:23 - May 28 with 2063 viewsGuthrum

There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 09:08 - May 28 by Freddies_Ears

"With an important caveat for those countries who are lying about deaths the UK has the worst per capita death toll, and the second highest in globally." (OP)

The excess deaths data is cleaner than any CV19 data, as it isn't dependent on varying definitions of what constitutes a CV19 death. (It doesn't mean that every single excess death is CV19-related, though that's not really relevant). We have only really realised the scale of CV19-era excess mortality in UK since the ONS stats started to be reported - the daily UK government stats are becoming less and less important as we can now consider the real numbers. And it is not a good look.


I'd disagree that the testing stats are becoming less important. They are the closest thing we have to real-time monitoring. Whereas the excess deaths figures are, of necessity, delayed by weeks and give, at best, a broad overview of the entire outbreak.

If you're looking at trends and changes in the figures, so as to make decisions about lockdown, for example, you need something fairly immediate. Even if the figures are not precise, they are an indication of the direction and speed of change. For early warning of an increase in infections, you need daily reporting.

Even if it were possible to produce daily excess death figures, they will necessarily lag around a fortnight behind what is happening on the ground in terms of new cases, simply due to how long the progress of the disease takes. Also, only a proportion of those who test positive die (currently running at 14%). Variations in that figure will not be picked up.

Moreover, there could be reasons why mortality figures, as opposed to infections, might not paint a clear picture of a country's performance in fighting the disease. There are multiple different strains of 'flu, some more lethal than others; there is no reason to believe that Covid-19 is any different (we know there are a number of strains in circulation, see some of the stuff about two-thirds of the way down this article: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/26/us-coronavirus-patient-zero-100000 ).

Good Lord! Whatever is it?
Poll: McCarthy: A More Nuanced Poll
Blog: [Blog] For Those Panicking About the Lack of Transfer Activity

0
There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 10:40 - May 28 with 2030 viewsDarth_Koont

There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 10:15 - May 28 by Steve_M

Singapore dealt with the initial influx of cases well but with one major flaw - they ignored the large number of migrant workers on which the state depends. Their lockdown is currently far stricter than most globally as a result.

Certainly the experience of SARS lead to far better preparedness in many Asian countries than in Europe.


You're probably right re: SARS.

Again, being prepared for stuff that we haven't experienced (but there's no reason why we couldn't) would have been the scientific, evidence-based approach. Our levels of healthcare provision and our risk assessment of exercises like Cygnus show that the current government's dodgy and confused response is more of a long-term problem made worse by the current clowns but mostly because they've been trained not to keep their eye on the ball.

Successive governments have been taking less and less responsibility over the years for all manner of important economic, social, health and education issues. But unlike the rest, a pandemic is one they can't dodge or massage as infections and deaths are so brutally undeniable.

Pronouns: He/Him

0
There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 11:12 - May 28 with 1999 viewslowhouseblue

when the inquiry into all of this takes place, along with questions about PPE and care homes, the critical question will be whether the government followed the expert advice about the timing of the lockdown. if they didn't then they are greatly at fault.

i don't recall people saying that the first government announcement on 16th march was too weak - it was reported as being a dramatic and life changing move. but all that really matters is what the expert advice was at that time. we don't yet know that.

And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show

0
There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 11:15 - May 28 with 1992 viewsHerbivore

There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 11:12 - May 28 by lowhouseblue

when the inquiry into all of this takes place, along with questions about PPE and care homes, the critical question will be whether the government followed the expert advice about the timing of the lockdown. if they didn't then they are greatly at fault.

i don't recall people saying that the first government announcement on 16th march was too weak - it was reported as being a dramatic and life changing move. but all that really matters is what the expert advice was at that time. we don't yet know that.


The statement on the 16th where they advised people not to go to the pub but didn't tell the pubs they had to close? I think you'll find there was quite a bit of bemusement at those halfway house measures at the time.

Poll: Should someone on benefits earn more than David Cameron?
Blog: Where Did It All Go Wrong for Paul Hurst?

3
There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 11:32 - May 28 with 1946 viewslowhouseblue

There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 11:15 - May 28 by Herbivore

The statement on the 16th where they advised people not to go to the pub but didn't tell the pubs they had to close? I think you'll find there was quite a bit of bemusement at those halfway house measures at the time.


the coverage the next day pretty much reflects how i remember it.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/17/life-put-on-hold-what-the-papers-s

And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show

0
There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 11:40 - May 28 with 1921 viewsBrixtonBlue

There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 11:12 - May 28 by lowhouseblue

when the inquiry into all of this takes place, along with questions about PPE and care homes, the critical question will be whether the government followed the expert advice about the timing of the lockdown. if they didn't then they are greatly at fault.

i don't recall people saying that the first government announcement on 16th march was too weak - it was reported as being a dramatic and life changing move. but all that really matters is what the expert advice was at that time. we don't yet know that.


You think our scientists are more likely to be wrong than Boris and his cronies?

I bet Bloots will downarrow this.
Poll: If you work in an office, when are you off over Christmas (not booked holiday)?

0
There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 11:42 - May 28 with 1913 viewsLibero

Thanks for sharing that Steve, very interesting read that I'm now passing round a few friends.
0
There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 11:43 - May 28 with 1912 viewsHerbivore

There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 11:32 - May 28 by lowhouseblue

the coverage the next day pretty much reflects how i remember it.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/17/life-put-on-hold-what-the-papers-s


Yeah, I recall a lot of uncertainty still particularly from those working in the hospitality sector. BBC Breakfast the following day certainly had a lot of confused people on there querying whether or not things were actually shutting down. The pubs and restaurants stayed open for a further 4 days before closing their doors on the Friday and plenty of people were still frequenting them. The messaging has only been clear and unequivocal fairly sporadically, which may be a contributing factor in us having the highest mortality rate in the world now.

Poll: Should someone on benefits earn more than David Cameron?
Blog: Where Did It All Go Wrong for Paul Hurst?

4
There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 11:46 - May 28 with 1902 viewsSwansea_Blue

There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 08:21 - May 28 by Dubtractor

This graph is one of the most compelling I've seen so far. Timing of lockdown seems so critical in determining the outcome.

Though it is another graph with an abomination of a scale on it!

https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/https%3A%2F%2Fd6c748xw2
[Post edited 28 May 2020 8:22]


Looks like that's kicked off a bit of a discussion and FT are going to change it:


Poll: Do you think Pert is key to all of this?

0
About Us Contact Us Terms & Conditions Privacy Cookies Advertising
© TWTD 1995-2024