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SAGE being ignored.....again? 15:27 - May 29 with 2380 viewshomer_123

Prof John Edmunds, from the London School of Tropical Hygiene and Medicine, said that 8,000 new infections a day in England, as calculated by the Office for National Statistics, was “a very high incidence” level.

"Many of us would prefer to see incidence down to lower levels before we relax measures," he said.

He said that with an "untested" test and trace system "we are taking some risk here" and "even if we keep it flat, that’s still quite a level".

“Lifting the lockdown is a political decision. Lifting it now, means we’re keeping incidence at this level," he added.

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SAGE being ignored.....again? on 18:25 - May 29 with 2202 viewsbluelagos

"Lifting the lockdown is a political decision"

That does somewhat drive a horse and cart through the claims they are "following the science".

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SAGE being ignored.....again? on 18:35 - May 29 with 2184 viewsTrequartista

Is that John "herd immunity is the only way to deal with COVID19." Edmunds ?

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SAGE being ignored.....again? on 18:36 - May 29 with 2178 viewsGlasgowBlue

SAGE being ignored.....again? on 18:25 - May 29 by bluelagos

"Lifting the lockdown is a political decision"

That does somewhat drive a horse and cart through the claims they are "following the science".


The ending of lockdown has been completely political. I said that two weeks ago and this reinforces it.

Although I do understand that there could be greater long term ham to the country if the economy completely tanks.

It’s a delicate balance but I think we are two weeks too early.

With regards to following the science? It appears that this is exactly what the government did regarding the timing of when we went into lockdown according to the SAGE minutes from 13 March that were released today.



https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attac

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SAGE being ignored.....again? on 18:41 - May 29 with 2166 viewsSwansea_Blue

SAGE being ignored.....again? on 18:36 - May 29 by GlasgowBlue

The ending of lockdown has been completely political. I said that two weeks ago and this reinforces it.

Although I do understand that there could be greater long term ham to the country if the economy completely tanks.

It’s a delicate balance but I think we are two weeks too early.

With regards to following the science? It appears that this is exactly what the government did regarding the timing of when we went into lockdown according to the SAGE minutes from 13 March that were released today.



https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attac


It's an interesting quandary. No doubt the economy tanks in a long lockdown, but it tanks if people are too dead to contribute too. I wouldn't want to be in their shoes making these decisions (although I would put others' interests first, which is why I'll never be in their position).

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SAGE being ignored.....again? on 18:46 - May 29 with 2154 viewsbluelagos

SAGE being ignored.....again? on 18:36 - May 29 by GlasgowBlue

The ending of lockdown has been completely political. I said that two weeks ago and this reinforces it.

Although I do understand that there could be greater long term ham to the country if the economy completely tanks.

It’s a delicate balance but I think we are two weeks too early.

With regards to following the science? It appears that this is exactly what the government did regarding the timing of when we went into lockdown according to the SAGE minutes from 13 March that were released today.



https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attac


Point 30 might be of interest:

Difficulty maintaining behaviours should not be treated as a reason for not communicating with the public about the efficacy of the behaviours and should not be taken as a reason to delay implementation where that is indicated epidemiologically

---------------------

If I am reading that correctly - it does seem to contradict the arguments made a while back for the delay to bringing the lockdown. Or am I missing something / misinterpreting it?

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SAGE being ignored.....again? on 18:51 - May 29 with 2139 viewsSwansea_Blue

SAGE being ignored.....again? on 18:35 - May 29 by Trequartista

Is that John "herd immunity is the only way to deal with COVID19." Edmunds ?


You're getting confused with Simon Pegg!

Professor John Edmonds


Simon Pegg


(Yes, he does have some views that go against the more seemingly sensible approach of acting quickly and locking down hard). That whole 'the public will get bored' business was a killer (literally). They'll get more bored with a longer lockdown than would have been required because we responded so slowly.

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SAGE being ignored.....again? on 19:00 - May 29 with 2116 viewsmonytowbray

SAGE being ignored.....again? on 18:36 - May 29 by GlasgowBlue

The ending of lockdown has been completely political. I said that two weeks ago and this reinforces it.

Although I do understand that there could be greater long term ham to the country if the economy completely tanks.

It’s a delicate balance but I think we are two weeks too early.

With regards to following the science? It appears that this is exactly what the government did regarding the timing of when we went into lockdown according to the SAGE minutes from 13 March that were released today.



https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attac


So “Trust the Science” was wrong. Glad we cleared that one up. 👍

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SAGE being ignored.....again? on 19:37 - May 29 with 2079 viewsGlasgowBlue

SAGE being ignored.....again? on 19:00 - May 29 by monytowbray

So “Trust the Science” was wrong. Glad we cleared that one up. 👍


And as I said at the time, had Johnson announced we were going into lockdown against the expert scientific advice from SAGE with all shops, pubs and restaurants to close immediately, then he’d have quite rightly been crucified.

Damned if he listens to the experts and damned if he doesn’t.

Not that you were interested in the science at the time. You were too busy calling into question the professional integrity of the CMO and the CSA whilst accusing “the Tories” of using this pandemic as an excuse to cull the poorest and most vulnerable in society.

And with that I’ll leave you to enjoy your weekend.

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SAGE being ignored.....again? on 19:58 - May 29 with 2028 viewsmonytowbray

SAGE being ignored.....again? on 19:37 - May 29 by GlasgowBlue

And as I said at the time, had Johnson announced we were going into lockdown against the expert scientific advice from SAGE with all shops, pubs and restaurants to close immediately, then he’d have quite rightly been crucified.

Damned if he listens to the experts and damned if he doesn’t.

Not that you were interested in the science at the time. You were too busy calling into question the professional integrity of the CMO and the CSA whilst accusing “the Tories” of using this pandemic as an excuse to cull the poorest and most vulnerable in society.

And with that I’ll leave you to enjoy your weekend.


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SAGE being ignored.....again? on 21:24 - May 29 with 1949 viewsitfc_bucks

SAGE being ignored.....again? on 18:35 - May 29 by Trequartista

Is that John "herd immunity is the only way to deal with COVID19." Edmunds ?


Well, absent a vaccine/cure, he's sort of spot on in that statement.
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SAGE being ignored.....again? on 21:26 - May 29 with 1941 viewsbournemouthblue

He's not the only SAGE member I have heard who isn't convinced

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SAGE being ignored.....again? on 22:08 - May 29 with 1871 viewsPinewoodblue

Trust the science, if of course you can get the scientists to agree. At every stage you can be sure there wi;; be someone who disagrees

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SAGE being ignored.....again? on 07:15 - May 30 with 1774 viewsgordon

SAGE being ignored.....again? on 18:36 - May 29 by GlasgowBlue

The ending of lockdown has been completely political. I said that two weeks ago and this reinforces it.

Although I do understand that there could be greater long term ham to the country if the economy completely tanks.

It’s a delicate balance but I think we are two weeks too early.

With regards to following the science? It appears that this is exactly what the government did regarding the timing of when we went into lockdown according to the SAGE minutes from 13 March that were released today.



https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attac


The Government does appear to have followed advice from a pretty narrow group of disease modellers / statisticians, bu the SAGE minutes don't show that anyone followed 'the science.' A lot of the key judgements were pretty baseless, and related to public health, which the group didn't have expertise in.

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SAGE being ignored.....again? on 07:43 - May 30 with 1723 viewsGlasgowBlue

SAGE being ignored.....again? on 07:15 - May 30 by gordon

The Government does appear to have followed advice from a pretty narrow group of disease modellers / statisticians, bu the SAGE minutes don't show that anyone followed 'the science.' A lot of the key judgements were pretty baseless, and related to public health, which the group didn't have expertise in.



I’m sorry but SAGE clearly advised against lockdown on 13 March for fear of a second wave. It clearly states this in the minutes.

Your own link from Devi Sridhar is a series of criticisms of SAGE and the conclusion they came to. Their conclusions were publicly spelled out by Whitty and Valance during the Briefings in March.

People may now conclude the advice was wrong, as your link clearly does. But you suggest the government didn’t follow this advice is completely disingenuous.
[Post edited 30 May 2020 8:15]

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SAGE being ignored.....again? on 09:06 - May 30 with 1661 viewsgordon

SAGE being ignored.....again? on 07:43 - May 30 by GlasgowBlue

I’m sorry but SAGE clearly advised against lockdown on 13 March for fear of a second wave. It clearly states this in the minutes.

Your own link from Devi Sridhar is a series of criticisms of SAGE and the conclusion they came to. Their conclusions were publicly spelled out by Whitty and Valance during the Briefings in March.

People may now conclude the advice was wrong, as your link clearly does. But you suggest the government didn’t follow this advice is completely disingenuous.
[Post edited 30 May 2020 8:15]


I don't follow your final sentence - I was making the point that 'following the science' is a trite and meaningless phrase coined by the Govt. to try and shield themselves from criticism. The SAGE inputs are almost all just advice given by scientists, it isn't 'science.'

Government policy is going to be largely based on input from advisors, and modellers from SAGE were giving media interviews in early March where they said that the best approach was to allow the spread of the virus through the population while shielding vulnerable people and slowing the spread if the NHS was close to capacity.
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SAGE being ignored.....again? on 09:16 - May 30 with 1643 viewsElephantintheRoom

It's not 8,000 new infections a day.... its a 'model' of that based on duff info and best guessing.

The deaths are highly misleading too as daily deaths announced extend across deaths occurring over a 6 week period. Do you really want to wait 6 weeks to hear that half a dozen people died of covid today... (or whatever the real number is)


The problem is we went into a partial lockdown two to three weeks too late which always made easing a pretend and partial lockdown highly problematic - the real solution was to go into a proper lockdown and try to control the virus.... we opted to 'flatten the curve'.

In effect nothing will change... anyone who thinks they have the virus will maybe self isolate and maybe engage with an untested track and trace programme in a partial lockdown.

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SAGE being ignored.....again? on 09:27 - May 30 with 1618 viewsShawsey

SAGE being ignored.....again? on 09:16 - May 30 by ElephantintheRoom

It's not 8,000 new infections a day.... its a 'model' of that based on duff info and best guessing.

The deaths are highly misleading too as daily deaths announced extend across deaths occurring over a 6 week period. Do you really want to wait 6 weeks to hear that half a dozen people died of covid today... (or whatever the real number is)


The problem is we went into a partial lockdown two to three weeks too late which always made easing a pretend and partial lockdown highly problematic - the real solution was to go into a proper lockdown and try to control the virus.... we opted to 'flatten the curve'.

In effect nothing will change... anyone who thinks they have the virus will maybe self isolate and maybe engage with an untested track and trace programme in a partial lockdown.


We never, so we just have to do the best we can now. Going on about what should have happened isn't going to change what is going to happen in the future. The numbers given are still far higher than you are suggesting. Ove 300 a day, isn't "half a dozen". Do you try to get a rise out of people? These kind of posts are helpful to absolutely no one, yourself included. Should a, would a, could a, isn't going to change the fact that hundreds are still dying. Please don't try and make light of it.
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SAGE being ignored.....again? on 10:43 - May 30 with 1551 viewsElephantintheRoom

SAGE being ignored.....again? on 09:27 - May 30 by Shawsey

We never, so we just have to do the best we can now. Going on about what should have happened isn't going to change what is going to happen in the future. The numbers given are still far higher than you are suggesting. Ove 300 a day, isn't "half a dozen". Do you try to get a rise out of people? These kind of posts are helpful to absolutely no one, yourself included. Should a, would a, could a, isn't going to change the fact that hundreds are still dying. Please don't try and make light of it.


I'm not sure what your point is.

The government has to make the best job out of a pig's ear and has made some very slight relaxations in a very relaxed lock down. This may or may not cause a problem. And the fact that 4 different countries in the Disunited Kingdom are now acting differently IS a tad confusing

No two scientists will agree on one thing, by and large - and in a committee there are bound to be different opinions - and someone makes a decision of least resistance. And the government does what it was going to do anyway.

All the indications from everywhere in the world so far indicate it shouldn't be a problem IF people act responsibly. We allegedly have the testing capacity to do some sort of track and trace to back up self isolation.... so you could argue this relaxation might actually help stop the unknown spreaders spreading the virus which is still quite prevalent in the community.

The 300 a day death rate is a hangover from the government's cynical decision to misrepresent the death toll as 'registered deaths' rather than actual deaths. This has conveniently 'flattened the curve ' but rather inconveniently grossly exagerated current daily deaths.... you wont know how many people actually died today for around 6 weeks... those in the know clearly think its 'not many' and time for a bit of token relaxation of a token lock down that Cummings may have made a busted flush anyway.

Blog: The Swinging Sixty

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SAGE being ignored.....again? on 10:51 - May 30 with 1537 viewseireblue

SAGE being ignored.....again? on 07:43 - May 30 by GlasgowBlue

I’m sorry but SAGE clearly advised against lockdown on 13 March for fear of a second wave. It clearly states this in the minutes.

Your own link from Devi Sridhar is a series of criticisms of SAGE and the conclusion they came to. Their conclusions were publicly spelled out by Whitty and Valance during the Briefings in March.

People may now conclude the advice was wrong, as your link clearly does. But you suggest the government didn’t follow this advice is completely disingenuous.
[Post edited 30 May 2020 8:15]


It doesn’t state that in the minutes.

There is no Government advise in those minutes.

There are actions placed n other bodies, mostly to gather more information.

Including things like how much capacity there is in the NHS. Point 36, should be considered.

Point 31 was ignored. Which as far as I can tell, was the only action placed on Government in those minutes.
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SAGE being ignored.....again? on 10:51 - May 30 with 1541 viewssparks

SAGE being ignored.....again? on 10:43 - May 30 by ElephantintheRoom

I'm not sure what your point is.

The government has to make the best job out of a pig's ear and has made some very slight relaxations in a very relaxed lock down. This may or may not cause a problem. And the fact that 4 different countries in the Disunited Kingdom are now acting differently IS a tad confusing

No two scientists will agree on one thing, by and large - and in a committee there are bound to be different opinions - and someone makes a decision of least resistance. And the government does what it was going to do anyway.

All the indications from everywhere in the world so far indicate it shouldn't be a problem IF people act responsibly. We allegedly have the testing capacity to do some sort of track and trace to back up self isolation.... so you could argue this relaxation might actually help stop the unknown spreaders spreading the virus which is still quite prevalent in the community.

The 300 a day death rate is a hangover from the government's cynical decision to misrepresent the death toll as 'registered deaths' rather than actual deaths. This has conveniently 'flattened the curve ' but rather inconveniently grossly exagerated current daily deaths.... you wont know how many people actually died today for around 6 weeks... those in the know clearly think its 'not many' and time for a bit of token relaxation of a token lock down that Cummings may have made a busted flush anyway.


This post is actively dishonest. Interspersed with obvious truths, in order to smuggle in the nonsense.

There are no "indications from wverywhere in the world" that it shouldnt be a problem. Our figrues are not the same as other examples. We do not have an up and running testing andd tracing capability- nor even an app, as other nations have. The detah figrues may require to be slightly adjusted as the informations ettles down- but the suggestion it is significantly out, is entirely made up to suit your nogoing agenda.

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SAGE being ignored.....again? on 13:41 - May 30 with 1475 viewsElephantintheRoom

SAGE being ignored.....again? on 10:51 - May 30 by sparks

This post is actively dishonest. Interspersed with obvious truths, in order to smuggle in the nonsense.

There are no "indications from wverywhere in the world" that it shouldnt be a problem. Our figrues are not the same as other examples. We do not have an up and running testing andd tracing capability- nor even an app, as other nations have. The detah figrues may require to be slightly adjusted as the informations ettles down- but the suggestion it is significantly out, is entirely made up to suit your nogoing agenda.


The government of this country has made some slight relaxations to a relaxed lockdown. Four different countries in the same union take slightly different interpretations - all following the same 'science' for want of a better word.

I am not sure you are living in anything liker the real world - but perhaps you have not noticed there is a virus circulating in the country, despite a partial lockdown? If that is being 'actively dishonest' then I'm sorry - but honestly there is a health crisis in this country made worse by an incompetent government - and ultimately by an NHS long since unfit for purpose because of decades of political interference.

Something has to change - and the Government, for better of for worse have put their faith in a track and trace system - which is effectively a voluntary self-isolation with the added bonus that IF there are tests and IF the results are processed speedily, those with the infection in the community can actually be identified - effectively for the first time.

This is the ONLY way to stop the virus spreading - it should have up and running in February - so just the four months late. An App is entirely irrelevant - what is needed is effective testing - ideally of all the people in contact with the virus at least once a week - that probably still isn't happening - but track and trace, assuming some tests are available will begin to address the problem.... slightly aided by a relaxed pseudo lock down with people testing their hay fever, stomach bugs if they are Mr & Mrs Cummings, and hey presto - a few covid sufferers and more importantly their contacts..... in theory it might even reach out to the elusive asymptomatic carriers.

The government have made a decision which is potentially dangerous - but given our somewhat unique situation of never having tried to control the virus - its a reasonable call that I'm guessing Professor Pinocchio wont be disagreeing with at the daily panto.

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SAGE being ignored.....again? on 14:03 - May 30 with 1454 viewsNthQldITFC

SAGE being ignored.....again? on 21:24 - May 29 by itfc_bucks

Well, absent a vaccine/cure, he's sort of spot on in that statement.


It's a real problem when a phrase or concept e.g. 'herd immunity' becomes tainted because of an initial failed attempt. You then have to battle a hostile visceral reaction to the idea of the very thing that you need!

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