| Trump's approval ratings are pretty interesting 14:12 - Jun 6 with 4103 views | Darth_Koont |
Saw this and particularly interesting to scroll down and see Trump's approval rating compared to other presidents.
There's a lower base level of support for him than the others but the most interesting bit is that it barely changes. All the others show approval going up and down depending on real-life events but Trump's don't flicker. It seems to me that Trump's supporters aren't even looking at reality - this is much more faith-based or based on personality/identity stuff.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/
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| Trump's approval ratings are pretty interesting on 15:31 - Jun 6 with 3998 views | Illinoisblue |
Not so much faith-based as hate-based |  |
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| Trump's approval ratings are pretty interesting on 15:37 - Jun 6 with 3981 views | Darth_Koont |
| Trump's approval ratings are pretty interesting on 15:31 - Jun 6 by Illinoisblue |
Not so much faith-based as hate-based |
Indeed. Yes, I meant "faith-based" more as an irrational belief than particularly inspired by the teachings of Jesus.
More the teachings of Bannon. | |
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| Trump's approval ratings are pretty interesting on 15:41 - Jun 6 with 3968 views | LankHenners |
That tells you a bit about how he won last time (and how he can this time) - his base are pretty much locked in to vote for him whatever he says or does so he 'only' needs to push the needle the right way in the right places to get the win. |  |
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| Trump's approval ratings are pretty interesting on 15:48 - Jun 6 with 3928 views | BlueNomad |
| Trump's approval ratings are pretty interesting on 15:41 - Jun 6 by LankHenners |
That tells you a bit about how he won last time (and how he can this time) - his base are pretty much locked in to vote for him whatever he says or does so he 'only' needs to push the needle the right way in the right places to get the win. |
Support for a leader can often increase during time of crisis. I think he is in trouble. |  | | |
| Trump's approval ratings are pretty interesting on 15:50 - Jun 6 with 3920 views | Darth_Koont |
| Trump's approval ratings are pretty interesting on 15:48 - Jun 6 by BlueNomad |
Support for a leader can often increase during time of crisis. I think he is in trouble. |
Yep. Just see how the support for Dubya rose overnight with 9/11. [Post edited 6 Jun 2020 15:51]
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| Trump's approval ratings are pretty interesting on 16:04 - Jun 6 with 3865 views | Illinoisblue |
| Trump's approval ratings are pretty interesting on 15:37 - Jun 6 by Darth_Koont |
Indeed. Yes, I meant "faith-based" more as an irrational belief than particularly inspired by the teachings of Jesus.
More the teachings of Bannon. |
Said it before, if the Dems don’t win in November they may as well pack it in. | |
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| Trump's approval ratings are pretty interesting on 16:09 - Jun 6 with 3854 views | Swansea_Blue |
Interesting. So the least popular president in modern times then. That's what I would have expected. A core support from his brainwashed cultists and everyone else thinks he's a tosser., and always will. That restores a bit of my faith in some of humanity. |  |
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| Trump's approval ratings are pretty interesting on 16:23 - Jun 6 with 3824 views | Darth_Koont |
| Trump's approval ratings are pretty interesting on 16:04 - Jun 6 by Illinoisblue |
Said it before, if the Dems don’t win in November they may as well pack it in. |
Yes, there'll need to be a complete reappraisal if even an uninspiring, status quo Democrat can't shift him.
I thinkTrump is done though. The initial Coronavirus emergency gave him almost zero sympathy and support - and now as it starts to bite into the economy and with civil unrest I can't see him turning it round. Short of having a war with some poor country ... Wag the Dog was an exaggerated satire now it looks like a more realistic Trump strategy presentation. | |
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| Trump's approval ratings are pretty interesting on 16:32 - Jun 6 with 3789 views | SpruceMoose |
| Trump's approval ratings are pretty interesting on 16:04 - Jun 6 by Illinoisblue |
Said it before, if the Dems don’t win in November they may as well pack it in. |
Bookmark this so you can use it against me later...
I think, without any Republican election interference, this could be a Dem landslide.
My reasoning:
1) Trump won several purple states by an incredibly tight margin last time round, as in, in the tens of thousands. It was tight. He lost the popular vote. It was a perfect storm and he will require another one. He will need to repeat that again AND prevent the Dems from making inroads in places like PA (home of Biden...), Florida, North Carolina.
2) The usual disclaimer about polls but... They are looking bad for him and great for Biden right now Obviously that's only a snap shot in time but the trend is cause for optimism.
3) I think moderate, educated republicans and independents (yes they still exist) are tired of chaos. It's so exhausting. Maybe Illy or the other US based posters will have a different impression but the sense I get from talking to the hand full of northern, non evangelical republicans I know is that they are quietly tired of defending him, tired of hearing from him, tired of being a joke. Aside from tax cuts for billionaires Trump has actually implementated very little else that they might be pleased about. They aren't cheering family seperation and children in cages. I know for a fact several of these people either won't vote, or will vote for Biden. There's a 0% chance they will vote for Trump.
4) Trump's handling of every crisis may appeal to his base, but that's hit a ceiling. Nobody else is impressed. Nobody else feels confident in his leadership. Biden needs to work to fill that vacuum.
5) Rightly or wrongly, Biden is held in affection by a huge amount of the American public. That's worth a lot. But as ever, people need to vote, and Biden can't assume he is entitled to the youth, progressive and black vote.
Final note, this isn't just about the presidency. Dems need to take the senate too of they want to avoid another hobbled Obama style presidency under Biden. If they can take the senate and the White House, my optimism levels for the US increase significantly.
I'm sure this'll come back to haunt me. [Post edited 6 Jun 2020 16:38]
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| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| Trump's approval ratings are pretty interesting on 16:45 - Jun 6 with 3724 views | Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
Trump is toast unless there is no second COVID spike and it just starts to disappear and not come back after the reopening across the states. Thus meaning a potential massive rebound on the economy and it gets back to where it was quicker than anticipated. If that happens it may give him a shot.
His base will always be his base, there are also many Americans who would never vote Democrat in any circumstance. The swing states and those that didn’t want Hilary last time can make the difference this time though. The polls speak for themselves. [Post edited 6 Jun 2020 16:48]
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| Trump's approval ratings are pretty interesting on 16:51 - Jun 6 with 3702 views | SpruceMoose |
| Trump's approval ratings are pretty interesting on 16:45 - Jun 6 by Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
Trump is toast unless there is no second COVID spike and it just starts to disappear and not come back after the reopening across the states. Thus meaning a potential massive rebound on the economy and it gets back to where it was quicker than anticipated. If that happens it may give him a shot.
His base will always be his base, there are also many Americans who would never vote Democrat in any circumstance. The swing states and those that didn’t want Hilary last time can make the difference this time though. The polls speak for themselves. [Post edited 6 Jun 2020 16:48]
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Agree with this. Covid and BLM couldn't have come at a worse time for Trump. He is unable to deal with crisis, and he's running out of time for people to forget by voting day. | |
| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| Trump's approval ratings are pretty interesting on 17:01 - Jun 6 with 3669 views | Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
| Trump's approval ratings are pretty interesting on 16:51 - Jun 6 by SpruceMoose |
Agree with this. Covid and BLM couldn't have come at a worse time for Trump. He is unable to deal with crisis, and he's running out of time for people to forget by voting day. |
Yesterday’s number although interesting are basically a few millions people who were furloughed/let go across Texas and the like and just took their old jobs back rather than staying on unemployment, especially those who rely on tips for income. When the big blue cities like New York, LA, Chicago, Philly etc become operational those numbers are going to look big later this summer and he will try and run on it, basically saw a preview of it yesterday. | | | |
| Trump's approval ratings are pretty interesting on 17:10 - Jun 6 with 3627 views | flimflam |
| Trump's approval ratings are pretty interesting on 16:32 - Jun 6 by SpruceMoose |
Bookmark this so you can use it against me later...
I think, without any Republican election interference, this could be a Dem landslide.
My reasoning:
1) Trump won several purple states by an incredibly tight margin last time round, as in, in the tens of thousands. It was tight. He lost the popular vote. It was a perfect storm and he will require another one. He will need to repeat that again AND prevent the Dems from making inroads in places like PA (home of Biden...), Florida, North Carolina.
2) The usual disclaimer about polls but... They are looking bad for him and great for Biden right now Obviously that's only a snap shot in time but the trend is cause for optimism.
3) I think moderate, educated republicans and independents (yes they still exist) are tired of chaos. It's so exhausting. Maybe Illy or the other US based posters will have a different impression but the sense I get from talking to the hand full of northern, non evangelical republicans I know is that they are quietly tired of defending him, tired of hearing from him, tired of being a joke. Aside from tax cuts for billionaires Trump has actually implementated very little else that they might be pleased about. They aren't cheering family seperation and children in cages. I know for a fact several of these people either won't vote, or will vote for Biden. There's a 0% chance they will vote for Trump.
4) Trump's handling of every crisis may appeal to his base, but that's hit a ceiling. Nobody else is impressed. Nobody else feels confident in his leadership. Biden needs to work to fill that vacuum.
5) Rightly or wrongly, Biden is held in affection by a huge amount of the American public. That's worth a lot. But as ever, people need to vote, and Biden can't assume he is entitled to the youth, progressive and black vote.
Final note, this isn't just about the presidency. Dems need to take the senate too of they want to avoid another hobbled Obama style presidency under Biden. If they can take the senate and the White House, my optimism levels for the US increase significantly.
I'm sure this'll come back to haunt me. [Post edited 6 Jun 2020 16:38]
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Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are the states that lost Clinton the election last time.
No idea what the polling currently is in those states but would guess they are key targets to flip. |  |
| All men and women are created, by the, you know the, you know the thing. |
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| Trump's approval ratings are pretty interesting on 17:15 - Jun 6 with 3599 views | SpruceMoose |
| Trump's approval ratings are pretty interesting on 17:01 - Jun 6 by Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
Yesterday’s number although interesting are basically a few millions people who were furloughed/let go across Texas and the like and just took their old jobs back rather than staying on unemployment, especially those who rely on tips for income. When the big blue cities like New York, LA, Chicago, Philly etc become operational those numbers are going to look big later this summer and he will try and run on it, basically saw a preview of it yesterday. |
I did read a report yesterday saying that they've since admitted the unemployment numbers were fudged.
He can try and run on the numbers in the big blue cities, but it won't really be the big blue cities who are going to vote for him.
I'm genuinely starting to think he might be toast (any potential corruption aside). | |
| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| Trump's approval ratings are pretty interesting on 17:16 - Jun 6 with 3584 views | Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
| Trump's approval ratings are pretty interesting on 17:10 - Jun 6 by flimflam |
Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are the states that lost Clinton the election last time.
No idea what the polling currently is in those states but would guess they are key targets to flip. |
The problem is with places like PA where I am two cities make up half of the population and are always blue and then in the middle is red and it gets close. Under a democratic governor those rural people in the middle have been locked down (in their minds too long) and they’ll be voting Republican again I can guarantee it. There’s a reason why Trump has been tweeting against his own administrations advice during this entire thing. As stupid as he looks, he (or his team) are actually quite clever at talking to stupid people. That’s the best way I’d describe him.
LIBERATE PENNSYLVANIA! [Post edited 6 Jun 2020 17:20]
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| Trump's approval ratings are pretty interesting on 17:20 - Jun 6 with 3564 views | SpruceMoose |
| Trump's approval ratings are pretty interesting on 17:10 - Jun 6 by flimflam |
Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are the states that lost Clinton the election last time.
No idea what the polling currently is in those states but would guess they are key targets to flip. |
Florida is one to watch too. If Biden can somehow take Florida it'll be a landslide and there's no way he won't also take Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania under that scenario.
Polling for Trump is so bad now that states like Iowa are suddenly coming into play too. Interestingly, I believe (I could be wrong) Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin all went to Obama and Biden in 2008 and 2012. | |
| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| Trump's approval ratings are pretty interesting on 17:24 - Jun 6 with 3547 views | Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
| Trump's approval ratings are pretty interesting on 17:20 - Jun 6 by SpruceMoose |
Florida is one to watch too. If Biden can somehow take Florida it'll be a landslide and there's no way he won't also take Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania under that scenario.
Polling for Trump is so bad now that states like Iowa are suddenly coming into play too. Interestingly, I believe (I could be wrong) Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin all went to Obama and Biden in 2008 and 2012. |
Any stats on how black people in Florida voted in 2016 percentage wise? There’s a large population there. Surely he’s lost those votes if nothing else (if he had any). I know this very topic was controversial in terms of fraud for the Bush/Gore election in 2000. [Post edited 6 Jun 2020 17:26]
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| Trump's approval ratings are pretty interesting on 17:33 - Jun 6 with 3510 views | SpruceMoose |
| Trump's approval ratings are pretty interesting on 17:24 - Jun 6 by Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
Any stats on how black people in Florida voted in 2016 percentage wise? There’s a large population there. Surely he’s lost those votes if nothing else (if he had any). I know this very topic was controversial in terms of fraud for the Bush/Gore election in 2000. [Post edited 6 Jun 2020 17:26]
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I'd have to look it up I'm afraid. I know that weirdly there's a large Hispanic vote for Trump down there made up largely of Cubans. On the other hand I think a large number of Puerto Ricans had to relocate there after Trump bungled the hurricane situation, so I can't believe they'll be voting Trump.
Florida man, it's a weird place.
Edit: looked it up.
Florida 2016
White - 64% Trump 32% Clinton
Black - 8% Trump 84% Clinton
Hispanic - 35% Trump 62% Clinton.
Clinton was really loathed by white people in a way that Biden just isn't. [Post edited 6 Jun 2020 17:34]
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| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| Trump's approval ratings are pretty interesting on 18:16 - Jun 6 with 3439 views | Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
| Trump's approval ratings are pretty interesting on 17:33 - Jun 6 by SpruceMoose |
I'd have to look it up I'm afraid. I know that weirdly there's a large Hispanic vote for Trump down there made up largely of Cubans. On the other hand I think a large number of Puerto Ricans had to relocate there after Trump bungled the hurricane situation, so I can't believe they'll be voting Trump.
Florida man, it's a weird place.
Edit: looked it up.
Florida 2016
White - 64% Trump 32% Clinton
Black - 8% Trump 84% Clinton
Hispanic - 35% Trump 62% Clinton.
Clinton was really loathed by white people in a way that Biden just isn't. [Post edited 6 Jun 2020 17:34]
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Thanks for the stats I expect a further swing to the Democrats this time.
Yes a weird state. | | | |
| Trump's approval ratings are pretty interesting on 20:07 - Jun 6 with 3325 views | SirBasilBrush |
#SilentMajority |  | | |
| Trump's approval ratings are pretty interesting on 03:50 - Jun 7 with 3152 views | Illinoisblue |
| Trump's approval ratings are pretty interesting on 17:10 - Jun 6 by flimflam |
Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are the states that lost Clinton the election last time.
No idea what the polling currently is in those states but would guess they are key targets to flip. |
Re Wisconsin... so, my buddy is a lobbyist. Political geek and knows a few state governors. 2016 Election and the Democratic Party leadership are pleading with the Clinton campaign to visit Wisconsin to firm up Dems votes. (Flashback to 2012 and Obama made two state visits even though polling had him way ahead.)
Anyway, Clinton does not visit. Clinton loses Wisconsin. Clinton loses Election.
Just one small example of what was considered Clinton arrogance. Dems surely won’t be as complacent this time around | |
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| Trump's approval ratings are pretty interesting on 03:56 - Jun 7 with 3139 views | Illinoisblue |
| Trump's approval ratings are pretty interesting on 16:32 - Jun 6 by SpruceMoose |
Bookmark this so you can use it against me later...
I think, without any Republican election interference, this could be a Dem landslide.
My reasoning:
1) Trump won several purple states by an incredibly tight margin last time round, as in, in the tens of thousands. It was tight. He lost the popular vote. It was a perfect storm and he will require another one. He will need to repeat that again AND prevent the Dems from making inroads in places like PA (home of Biden...), Florida, North Carolina.
2) The usual disclaimer about polls but... They are looking bad for him and great for Biden right now Obviously that's only a snap shot in time but the trend is cause for optimism.
3) I think moderate, educated republicans and independents (yes they still exist) are tired of chaos. It's so exhausting. Maybe Illy or the other US based posters will have a different impression but the sense I get from talking to the hand full of northern, non evangelical republicans I know is that they are quietly tired of defending him, tired of hearing from him, tired of being a joke. Aside from tax cuts for billionaires Trump has actually implementated very little else that they might be pleased about. They aren't cheering family seperation and children in cages. I know for a fact several of these people either won't vote, or will vote for Biden. There's a 0% chance they will vote for Trump.
4) Trump's handling of every crisis may appeal to his base, but that's hit a ceiling. Nobody else is impressed. Nobody else feels confident in his leadership. Biden needs to work to fill that vacuum.
5) Rightly or wrongly, Biden is held in affection by a huge amount of the American public. That's worth a lot. But as ever, people need to vote, and Biden can't assume he is entitled to the youth, progressive and black vote.
Final note, this isn't just about the presidency. Dems need to take the senate too of they want to avoid another hobbled Obama style presidency under Biden. If they can take the senate and the White House, my optimism levels for the US increase significantly.
I'm sure this'll come back to haunt me. [Post edited 6 Jun 2020 16:38]
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Bookmarked! Actually, point 3 is I think the big one there. There *should* be enough pissed off moderates and independents appalled at what this country has become to make a difference.
And hopefully at least a few of his mouth breathing folllwers will wake up and realise the swamp isn’t drained, the wall isn’t built, and that their hero is a narcissistic fraudster whose only concern is himself.
We live in hope... | |
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| Trump's approval ratings are pretty interesting on 07:11 - Jun 7 with 3071 views | m14_blue |
| Trump's approval ratings are pretty interesting on 20:07 - Jun 6 by SirBasilBrush |
#SilentMajority |
Trump lost the popular vote last time. |  | | |
| Trump's approval ratings are pretty interesting on 07:58 - Jun 7 with 3026 views | ElephantintheRoom |
The Tories still have 40% support in this country - more or less what got them elected.
Politics are tribal the world over | |
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| Trump's approval ratings are pretty interesting on 10:01 - Jun 7 with 2948 views | Darth_Koont |
| Trump's approval ratings are pretty interesting on 07:58 - Jun 7 by ElephantintheRoom |
The Tories still have 40% support in this country - more or less what got them elected.
Politics are tribal the world over |
Sure. But that still looks a recent thing when you compare against other presidents, even Obama.
Politics are red vs blue in the US and UK. But most other countries don't have such an antiquated system that produces that two-party dominance. | |
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