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If you had a gun to your head and had to predict which way it'll swing, what outcome do you predict ? I think Trump's in serious trouble and is making the same errors as Corbyn did in 2019. Sounds odd to make that comparison, but here's my working
Trump is such a volatile character. He may destroy Biden in the debates. Or he could destroy himself by saying something that pushes away some of his voters. My bet is that it will be the evangelicals that will see Biden as a good christian and vote against Trump.
Don't believe a word I say. I'm only kidding. Or am I?
Trump is such a volatile character. He may destroy Biden in the debates. Or he could destroy himself by saying something that pushes away some of his voters. My bet is that it will be the evangelicals that will see Biden as a good christian and vote against Trump.
The same evangelicals who've been ignoring Trump's distinctly un-christian qualities and supporting him to the nth degree?
Trump is definitely in trouble, even with some of his Republican base, but I have serious concerns about Biden’s mental state. If he picks a strong running mate that should be enough to seal the win.
I'm not sure the comparisons between Trump and Corbyn really track other than in very broad terms of them being seen as outside no-hopers who surprised people, and the situations both found/find themselves in aren't particularly comparable.
I think I said on here a few weeks back that Trump would get a narrow victory and, even just for the sake of it being easier to accept, I'll stick to it. If the election was tomorrow, Biden would walk it, but 4 months is a long time for people to get back to work and Trump's biggest card will be that, if that happens, he 'saved the economy', regardless of how true that ends up being.
He has played his hand terribly, even for him, on the Covid-19 response which will probably be the final straw for more 'moderate' Republicans who will bail on him, and they will view Biden as an acceptable compromise. There's been quite a movement, online at least, from Bush era Republicans appealing to the very liberal anti-Trump base which I think people should be highly suspicious of as it could have a damaging effect on the medium-to-long term ability to get more progressive candidates in the Senate.
Put simply, both of them would lose heavily in a normal world to someone who can talk for more than 5 minutes before smoke starts coming out of their ears as their brain begins to fry. Trump has his base locked in and it'll come down to how many less extreme GOP voters he can keep. Biden, or moreover the establishment Democrats, have essentially told the left of the party to go fck itself, so will try and scoop up the wavering former Trump voters as it's essentially a +2 swing for him each time.
Just because I don't care doesn't mean I don't understand.
I'm not sure the comparisons between Trump and Corbyn really track other than in very broad terms of them being seen as outside no-hopers who surprised people, and the situations both found/find themselves in aren't particularly comparable.
I think I said on here a few weeks back that Trump would get a narrow victory and, even just for the sake of it being easier to accept, I'll stick to it. If the election was tomorrow, Biden would walk it, but 4 months is a long time for people to get back to work and Trump's biggest card will be that, if that happens, he 'saved the economy', regardless of how true that ends up being.
He has played his hand terribly, even for him, on the Covid-19 response which will probably be the final straw for more 'moderate' Republicans who will bail on him, and they will view Biden as an acceptable compromise. There's been quite a movement, online at least, from Bush era Republicans appealing to the very liberal anti-Trump base which I think people should be highly suspicious of as it could have a damaging effect on the medium-to-long term ability to get more progressive candidates in the Senate.
Put simply, both of them would lose heavily in a normal world to someone who can talk for more than 5 minutes before smoke starts coming out of their ears as their brain begins to fry. Trump has his base locked in and it'll come down to how many less extreme GOP voters he can keep. Biden, or moreover the establishment Democrats, have essentially told the left of the party to go fck itself, so will try and scoop up the wavering former Trump voters as it's essentially a +2 swing for him each time.
Well quite, they're completely and totally different. One is an incompetent, elderly racist surrounded by sycophants, extremists and yes-men who is best suited to preaching conspiracy theories to his acolytes who'll see no wrong in him despite his many failings that rose to prominence on the back of disillusionment with competent centrists and a rising tide of nationalism whilst the other one is president of the USA.
[Post edited 4 Jul 2020 11:28]
I'm one of the people who was blamed for getting Paul Cook sacked. PM for the full post.
I'm not sure the comparisons between Trump and Corbyn really track other than in very broad terms of them being seen as outside no-hopers who surprised people, and the situations both found/find themselves in aren't particularly comparable.
I think I said on here a few weeks back that Trump would get a narrow victory and, even just for the sake of it being easier to accept, I'll stick to it. If the election was tomorrow, Biden would walk it, but 4 months is a long time for people to get back to work and Trump's biggest card will be that, if that happens, he 'saved the economy', regardless of how true that ends up being.
He has played his hand terribly, even for him, on the Covid-19 response which will probably be the final straw for more 'moderate' Republicans who will bail on him, and they will view Biden as an acceptable compromise. There's been quite a movement, online at least, from Bush era Republicans appealing to the very liberal anti-Trump base which I think people should be highly suspicious of as it could have a damaging effect on the medium-to-long term ability to get more progressive candidates in the Senate.
Put simply, both of them would lose heavily in a normal world to someone who can talk for more than 5 minutes before smoke starts coming out of their ears as their brain begins to fry. Trump has his base locked in and it'll come down to how many less extreme GOP voters he can keep. Biden, or moreover the establishment Democrats, have essentially told the left of the party to go fck itself, so will try and scoop up the wavering former Trump voters as it's essentially a +2 swing for him each time.
I think a Biden endorsement from a senior Republican would be significiant - perhaps this could come from George W Bush, as he refused to back Trump last time.
In 2000 and 2016 Green Party votes cost the Democrats so it depends how many Bernie supporters are willing to hold their nose and choose Biden. Bernie has given a more enthusiastic endorsement to Biden than he did to Clinton, so hopefully his support will follow suit
I think a Biden endorsement from a senior Republican would be significiant - perhaps this could come from George W Bush, as he refused to back Trump last time.
In 2000 and 2016 Green Party votes cost the Democrats so it depends how many Bernie supporters are willing to hold their nose and choose Biden. Bernie has given a more enthusiastic endorsement to Biden than he did to Clinton, so hopefully his support will follow suit
There does seem to be a hardcore of Bernie supporters who, like with Labour in recent times, would apparently much rather see a hard/far right government in power than actually think about appealing to people who aren't their 'natural' base.
[Post edited 3 Jul 2020 18:58]
I'm one of the people who was blamed for getting Paul Cook sacked. PM for the full post.
Biden is polling at over 50%, Trump won last time at about 45%, it will narrow up but seems a very big lead
Trump campaign is spending big money on states like Ohio that they shouldn't even need to bother with, so how are they going to keep states like Arizona?
Trump is definitely in trouble, even with some of his Republican base, but I have serious concerns about Biden’s mental state. If he picks a strong running mate that should be enough to seal the win.
I think the attack line from Trump that Biden is old and senile is just not playing well when Biden generally seems much more Presidential, and physically looks and acts fine - it's like ITFC fans criticsing other clubs for living in the past, it just draws attentions to Trump's own failings.
I think why he was effective last time was that he genuinely hated Clinton, maybe because so misogynistic as well - is he going to be able to find that for Biden?
But in terms of predictions, I expect Biden will get in.
We'll avoid Trump's silliness and mood swings. And maybe there'll be a step back from this ridiculous race/culture war - maybe not. But nothing will basically change - it'll just be a happier, shinier polish to the Establishment.
I'm not sure the comparisons between Trump and Corbyn really track other than in very broad terms of them being seen as outside no-hopers who surprised people, and the situations both found/find themselves in aren't particularly comparable.
I think I said on here a few weeks back that Trump would get a narrow victory and, even just for the sake of it being easier to accept, I'll stick to it. If the election was tomorrow, Biden would walk it, but 4 months is a long time for people to get back to work and Trump's biggest card will be that, if that happens, he 'saved the economy', regardless of how true that ends up being.
He has played his hand terribly, even for him, on the Covid-19 response which will probably be the final straw for more 'moderate' Republicans who will bail on him, and they will view Biden as an acceptable compromise. There's been quite a movement, online at least, from Bush era Republicans appealing to the very liberal anti-Trump base which I think people should be highly suspicious of as it could have a damaging effect on the medium-to-long term ability to get more progressive candidates in the Senate.
Put simply, both of them would lose heavily in a normal world to someone who can talk for more than 5 minutes before smoke starts coming out of their ears as their brain begins to fry. Trump has his base locked in and it'll come down to how many less extreme GOP voters he can keep. Biden, or moreover the establishment Democrats, have essentially told the left of the party to go fck itself, so will try and scoop up the wavering former Trump voters as it's essentially a +2 swing for him each time.
Good post.
Biden is just uninspiring and unthreatening enough to cause a wobble among the more reasonable Republicans. But apart from not having to see the world and the political debate in Trump's distorted terms, there's little to get excited about.
Trump is definitely in trouble, even with some of his Republican base, but I have serious concerns about Biden’s mental state. If he picks a strong running mate that should be enough to seal the win.
Biden may well chose as his running mate the daughter of a man who recorded arguably the greatest ever Northern Soul album live at The Torch, a club in Stoke on Trent.
I think the attack line from Trump that Biden is old and senile is just not playing well when Biden generally seems much more Presidential, and physically looks and acts fine - it's like ITFC fans criticsing other clubs for living in the past, it just draws attentions to Trump's own failings.
I think why he was effective last time was that he genuinely hated Clinton, maybe because so misogynistic as well - is he going to be able to find that for Biden?
That’s a good point re Trump attacks on mental stability; there are numerous clips of Trump getting names wrong and making up words and slurring... should be an easy counter attack for the Biden campaign.
And yes, in 2016, it was easy to dislike Clinton and their campaign’s arrogance. Trump has nothing now. He’ll obviously blame it on China but the economy is tanking and Covid deaths are highest in the world. Again that should be an easy win for Biden’s team
That’s a good point re Trump attacks on mental stability; there are numerous clips of Trump getting names wrong and making up words and slurring... should be an easy counter attack for the Biden campaign.
And yes, in 2016, it was easy to dislike Clinton and their campaign’s arrogance. Trump has nothing now. He’ll obviously blame it on China but the economy is tanking and Covid deaths are highest in the world. Again that should be an easy win for Biden’s team
In 2016, it was basically 'Mick vs Lambert/Hurst'. In 2020 it's still 'Mick Vs Lambert/Hurst' but YOU NOW KNOW what you'll get if Hurst/Lambert get the job.
I'm one of the people who was blamed for getting Paul Cook sacked. PM for the full post.
Biden is polling at over 50%, Trump won last time at about 45%, it will narrow up but seems a very big lead
Trump campaign is spending big money on states like Ohio that they shouldn't even need to bother with, so how are they going to keep states like Arizona?
Family in Kansas are getting several calls a day from the Trump team. In Kansas. Kansas shouldn't even be a concern for them.
I think team Trump are starting to panic. But like Lank said above, election is still a long way off. Let's be honest though, Trump hasn't surrounded himself with astute political geniuses, he's working with the dregs. I'm not sure they have the talent required to turn this around. He seens to think his only play is to ramp up the racism. That will appeal to his cult, but who else is he winning over with that argument?
[Post edited 3 Jul 2020 18:28]
Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country."
But in terms of predictions, I expect Biden will get in.
We'll avoid Trump's silliness and mood swings. And maybe there'll be a step back from this ridiculous race/culture war - maybe not. But nothing will basically change - it'll just be a happier, shinier polish to the Establishment.
Living in a largely immigrant neighbourhood I disagree slightly. Sure, nothing will change fundamentally for me - an affluent white guy. America is great if you're one of those.
But removing Trump from office will seriously lift the boot from many an immigrant throat. It would free many an immigrant child from cages at the border. It'll hopefully improve the non stop assault on female and LGBTQ rights.
America is still going to be American and do all that American stuff the rest of us wishes they didn't do, but within that there's room to make life an awful lot better for many people than it currently is.
[Post edited 3 Jul 2020 18:45]
Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country."
Trump will win again. Apologies, but Americans down south don't seem that bright generally, and they will push him over the line. Closer than last time, but 4 more years of that idiot I expect.
Trump will win again. Apologies, but Americans down south don't seem that bright generally, and they will push him over the line. Closer than last time, but 4 more years of that idiot I expect.
That's an opinion not based in anything that's currently happening though. Specifically which southern states are you referring to? The only two that matter are Florida and North Carolina, both of which will be a coin flip.
Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country."
Trump will win again. Apologies, but Americans down south don't seem that bright generally, and they will push him over the line. Closer than last time, but 4 more years of that idiot I expect.
I was previously of the view that he’d win again (and I predicted him to win last time) but having looked at the numbers, it’s unlikely
The southern states may vote for him in larger numbers but that won’t matter because they’re mostly already safe Republican. And if you think it’ll be closer than last time, that’ll likely result in a Biden win as Trump has very little room for error outside the south - he only won Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania by less than 1%.
But in terms of predictions, I expect Biden will get in.
We'll avoid Trump's silliness and mood swings. And maybe there'll be a step back from this ridiculous race/culture war - maybe not. But nothing will basically change - it'll just be a happier, shinier polish to the Establishment.
It wasn’t intended as having a pop at JC - despite my negative views on him, he’s clearly a better man than Trump.
It was more to highlight the similarities In the political landscape and the course of the campaigns.... outsider candidate benefits from a surge in ‘anti-elite‘ sentiment and does well against the odds, winning in unexpected areas but losing ground in traditional strongholds. Candidate then becomes more ideological and divides opinion without appealing to moderate voters and then loses.
That's an opinion not based in anything that's currently happening though. Specifically which southern states are you referring to? The only two that matter are Florida and North Carolina, both of which will be a coin flip.
Both of which he won last time and probably will win again. I hope not, but unfortunately for the American public, he probably will.
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