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A month after the beaches opened 09:40 - Jul 16 with 4425 viewsGlasgowBlue

And nearly two weeks after the pubs did the same, we’ve not seen any signs of a second spike. Infections and deaths are down each day.

There is so much about this virus we don’t understand but I’m surprised that there hasn’t been even a small increase in infections and deaths.

Saars ran from Nov 2002 and was pretty much gone by June 2003 with a small number of cases after and Completely disappeared in 2004. No second wave. COVID is 70% same structure. Could we see the same?

Or am I being too optimistic?

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A month after the beaches opened on 11:46 - Jul 16 with 952 viewsKeno

A month after the beaches opened on 11:37 - Jul 16 by solemio

Indeed. If I met someone from Holt, Wroxham or Dereham who supported Ipswich I wouldn't trust them as far as I could throw them. Unless they originally came from Suffolk of course.


although if they come from Halesworth you'd know they were a wrong 'un anyway
[Post edited 16 Jul 2020 12:05]

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A month after the beaches opened on 11:54 - Jul 16 with 945 viewsMarshalls_Mullet

One thing that has surprised me is how the supermarkets are now operating. My local Tesco Extra had a one way system, a system for allocating a till to go to, and all the trolleys were cleaned between uses. Also, at the start of lockdown most people wore gloves.

This has all now gone out of the window. Surprised me a little, as it seemed to work and wasnt an inconvenience.

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A month after the beaches opened on 11:59 - Jul 16 with 933 viewsMullet

There is also the large scale deaths already. Has it killed off most people likely to die from it or not? That seems to be a question we can't possibly answer for sure.

There isn't going to be much measurable success or optimism unless we disregard the tens of thousands it's already claimed.

Also when we go back in September in schools I fear we may see big localised lockdowns.

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As the numbers of infections..... on 12:42 - Jul 16 with 860 viewsBloots

A month after the beaches opened on 09:58 - Jul 16 by Steve_M

There was an uptick in deaths, and hospital admissions, around 25 June (I'll see if I can dig out the data in a bit - see second tweet). I'm not sure the impact of the pubs would necessarily filter through until next week.

Swansea is correct that people have definitely stayed cautious, the fact that there was only one road in Soho held up as an example of people being irresponsible suggests that other examples weren't enormously prevalent. Offices still remain shut and public transport is very quiet.

It's far too early to be comfortable that this is over. The examples in the US aren't encouraging, although in many of those states it is a delayed first wave rather than a second one.




This thread is optimistic but worth reading, it is obviously a trend based on current behaviour though.



[Post edited 16 Jul 2020 10:02]


....and deaths decrease we are going to see "spikes" quite often.

We are also going to see small contained outbreaks influence the reporting far more than you would do when the number of infections were higher.

The "Spike" you refer to was (I believe) entirely down to an isolated outbreak in a couple of meat processing plants (Anglesey?).

A good example of this was when Sky News (god bless 'em) reported that the IOW was in danger of being locked down again because the number of infections had "doubled".

.....it had increased from 1 to 2.

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A month after the beaches opened on 12:49 - Jul 16 with 852 viewsgordon

A month after the beaches opened on 10:17 - Jul 16 by bluelagos

Am not expert - but I think the key is to think of the virus like the flu.

(Don't anyone shoot me - I mean in terms on transmission - not in terms of impact)

Namely it spreads through germs on people, some in the air (sneezing etc.) So the key is closeness to infected people, number of interactions and avoiding things likely crowds on say tubes etc.

So why on earth anyone thought crowds on beaches would be a risk I have no idea. People go to the beach, sit in their groups with very little mixing interactions with strangers. Same with people sitting sun bathing in parks and/or making use of the outside.

Pubs are of course totally different but from what I have seen, 95% of pub goers are thankfully behaving sensibly.

Having said all that - the reason flu increases in winter is because so many of our interactions move indoors from outdoors. So there is a real risk of a spike come the winter if people go back to behaving as they did preCV.

So I think CV is here to stay, it far easier to spread than SARS was and is far more widespread.

*Just my opinions - am no doctor.


Agree with all that - I think it's inevitable that there will be more risk of transmission events from October onwards once pubs/restuarants/cafes aren't able to use outside space. The key in terms of whether we keep a lid on it will be how quickly we can respond to outbreaks to suppress them.

The signs don't look particularly good at the moment - our test/trace/isolate system looks overly centralised and unwieldy, with data not getting to the right people in time.
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A month after the beaches opened on 13:14 - Jul 16 with 828 viewsFixed_It

A month after the beaches opened on 11:54 - Jul 16 by Marshalls_Mullet

One thing that has surprised me is how the supermarkets are now operating. My local Tesco Extra had a one way system, a system for allocating a till to go to, and all the trolleys were cleaned between uses. Also, at the start of lockdown most people wore gloves.

This has all now gone out of the window. Surprised me a little, as it seemed to work and wasnt an inconvenience.


Agreed. It was almost as if the virus disappeared overnight - which clearly it hasn't. It gives a very powerful subconscious message to the general public though...

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As the numbers of infections..... on 13:18 - Jul 16 with 822 viewsSteve_M

As the numbers of infections..... on 12:42 - Jul 16 by Bloots

....and deaths decrease we are going to see "spikes" quite often.

We are also going to see small contained outbreaks influence the reporting far more than you would do when the number of infections were higher.

The "Spike" you refer to was (I believe) entirely down to an isolated outbreak in a couple of meat processing plants (Anglesey?).

A good example of this was when Sky News (god bless 'em) reported that the IOW was in danger of being locked down again because the number of infections had "doubled".

.....it had increased from 1 to 2.


I didn't think anyone died after the meat processing plant cases but that graph shows an increase in deaths.

I agree your general point, certain parts of the UK media reacted with glee to Germany's R rate increasing after their cases at meat processing plants, and that against a much smaller base. I missed that IoW from Sky, classic.

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A month after the beaches opened on 13:20 - Jul 16 with 820 viewsGlasgowBlue

A month after the beaches opened on 11:59 - Jul 16 by Mullet

There is also the large scale deaths already. Has it killed off most people likely to die from it or not? That seems to be a question we can't possibly answer for sure.

There isn't going to be much measurable success or optimism unless we disregard the tens of thousands it's already claimed.

Also when we go back in September in schools I fear we may see big localised lockdowns.


There is a school of thought it has hit most people who are likely to die of it. It was touched on in this article I linked a while ago.

Portion of people who are not even susceptible to Covid-19 may be as high as 80% by GlasgowBlue 4 Jun 2020 18:01
https://unherd.com/2020/06/karl-friston-up-to-80-not-even-susceptible-to-covid-19/





I wouldn't use a word such as "success" in regards to this disease or the handling of it.

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A month after the beaches opened on 13:32 - Jul 16 with 807 viewsclive_baker

I think there's definitely reasons to be optimistic that this thing potentially either mutating to the point where it becomes less dangerous, or that immunity sufficiently exists with the population that it doesn't have sufficient carriers to spread, and the rate of infection remains below 1, and ultimately dies out. Perhaps that's a happy consequence of the sh1t show that's been the dealing with the thing in the UK. I would've expected to see an uptick in the rate of spread in recent weeks otherwise.

The immunity point is interesting, perhaps not born out of having immunity specifically to Covid, but I think there might be something in having high levels of T cell immunity from other seasonal flus etc, that help make people less susceptible to Covid.

One thing is for sure, the severity of the disease shouldn't be underestimated, and the small incremental steps everyone can make can have a huge impact - social distancing, washing hands, face masks, staying in when poorly etc. My guess would be that there's no silver bullet, but through a combination of small steps we can keep making the gains. My nervousness is what's left behind as a consequence of the whole thing. Childhood obesity is up, unemployment is up, suicide is up, cancer referrals are way way down which begs the question how many people aren't getting the help they otherwise would have etc. The longer term effects are scary, but it's important to remain positive. Vigilant and positive.

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A month after the beaches opened on 13:35 - Jul 16 with 791 viewsRyorry

A month after the beaches opened on 13:20 - Jul 16 by GlasgowBlue

There is a school of thought it has hit most people who are likely to die of it. It was touched on in this article I linked a while ago.

Portion of people who are not even susceptible to Covid-19 may be as high as 80% by GlasgowBlue 4 Jun 2020 18:01
https://unherd.com/2020/06/karl-friston-up-to-80-not-even-susceptible-to-covid-19/





I wouldn't use a word such as "success" in regards to this disease or the handling of it.


"There is a school of thought it has hit most people who are likely to die of it."

I very much doubt that, considering the large numbers of over 70s and/or those with underlying health conditions who've been self-isolating for the past 4 months. Many of them are, like me, continuing to do so as far as possible. Not to mention those still at home who the government instructed must shield themselves there.

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You are of course correct..... on 13:36 - Jul 16 with 788 viewsBloots

As the numbers of infections..... on 13:18 - Jul 16 by Steve_M

I didn't think anyone died after the meat processing plant cases but that graph shows an increase in deaths.

I agree your general point, certain parts of the UK media reacted with glee to Germany's R rate increasing after their cases at meat processing plants, and that against a much smaller base. I missed that IoW from Sky, classic.


....I was rambling on about infections rather than deaths.

Personally I think the infection rate is more important than the death rate (sounds ridiculous, but you know what I mean).

Hospital deaths are so low now that it only takes a handful of Death Certs that say "with Covid" and they are totally skewed......or of course a care home that sees another outbreak.

And of course we must all remember we are still reporting deaths "with Covid" not "of Covid"

Lambert out.

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A month after the beaches opened on 13:39 - Jul 16 with 785 viewshype313

Interestingly, bout of the past 9 pandemics, only 3 had second waves
[Post edited 16 Jul 2020 13:40]

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A month after the beaches opened on 13:41 - Jul 16 with 785 viewshype313

A month after the beaches opened on 13:39 - Jul 16 by hype313

Interestingly, bout of the past 9 pandemics, only 3 had second waves
[Post edited 16 Jul 2020 13:40]



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A month after the beaches opened on 13:42 - Jul 16 with 767 viewsRyorry

A month after the beaches opened on 13:32 - Jul 16 by clive_baker

I think there's definitely reasons to be optimistic that this thing potentially either mutating to the point where it becomes less dangerous, or that immunity sufficiently exists with the population that it doesn't have sufficient carriers to spread, and the rate of infection remains below 1, and ultimately dies out. Perhaps that's a happy consequence of the sh1t show that's been the dealing with the thing in the UK. I would've expected to see an uptick in the rate of spread in recent weeks otherwise.

The immunity point is interesting, perhaps not born out of having immunity specifically to Covid, but I think there might be something in having high levels of T cell immunity from other seasonal flus etc, that help make people less susceptible to Covid.

One thing is for sure, the severity of the disease shouldn't be underestimated, and the small incremental steps everyone can make can have a huge impact - social distancing, washing hands, face masks, staying in when poorly etc. My guess would be that there's no silver bullet, but through a combination of small steps we can keep making the gains. My nervousness is what's left behind as a consequence of the whole thing. Childhood obesity is up, unemployment is up, suicide is up, cancer referrals are way way down which begs the question how many people aren't getting the help they otherwise would have etc. The longer term effects are scary, but it's important to remain positive. Vigilant and positive.


You left out of those positive self-help measures - eating a really good diet incorporating 5-a-day at least fresh veg/fruit, exercising to get/keep fit, getting a decent amount of sleep, fresh air & sunshine; and taking a vit D supplement (good idea to get tested, huge proportion of UK population are found to be deficient when they are).

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A month after the beaches opened on 13:43 - Jul 16 with 771 viewsTractor_Buck

A month after the beaches opened on 13:41 - Jul 16 by hype313



That man is a legend. Cool, calm and collected on Twitter as well as refreshingly optimistic in a sea of doom. Well worth a follow.
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A month after the beaches opened on 13:50 - Jul 16 with 750 viewsPlums

A month after the beaches opened on 11:59 - Jul 16 by Mullet

There is also the large scale deaths already. Has it killed off most people likely to die from it or not? That seems to be a question we can't possibly answer for sure.

There isn't going to be much measurable success or optimism unless we disregard the tens of thousands it's already claimed.

Also when we go back in September in schools I fear we may see big localised lockdowns.


Given the low numbers of people who have apparently had it - 7% was the last estimate I saw, I think this is unlikely.

It's 106 miles to Portman Road, we've got a full tank of gas, half a round of Port Salut, it's dark... and we're wearing blue tinted sunglasses.
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A month after the beaches opened on 13:51 - Jul 16 with 746 viewsMullet

A month after the beaches opened on 13:41 - Jul 16 by hype313



Problem is, he's a well known liar with an agenda and very thin skin.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2009/may/22/karol-sikora-honorary-professor-

He's also upset far right watch!

https://www.farrightwatch.net/2020/06/the-right-wings-favourite-crazy.html

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A month after the beaches opened on 13:53 - Jul 16 with 741 viewsMullet

A month after the beaches opened on 13:50 - Jul 16 by Plums

Given the low numbers of people who have apparently had it - 7% was the last estimate I saw, I think this is unlikely.


Yeah, as you and GB say it's not good is it?

I went out to eat last weekend and it felt OK, but there seemed to be a lot of people who had gone back to normal. As if the whole thing was over and others showing various levels of caution.

That in itself isn't very good is it?

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A month after the beaches opened on 13:57 - Jul 16 with 724 viewsRyorry

A month after the beaches opened on 13:51 - Jul 16 by Mullet

Problem is, he's a well known liar with an agenda and very thin skin.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2009/may/22/karol-sikora-honorary-professor-

He's also upset far right watch!

https://www.farrightwatch.net/2020/06/the-right-wings-favourite-crazy.html


Ah - thanks for the info.

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A month after the beaches opened on 14:01 - Jul 16 with 713 viewsclive_baker

A month after the beaches opened on 13:42 - Jul 16 by Ryorry

You left out of those positive self-help measures - eating a really good diet incorporating 5-a-day at least fresh veg/fruit, exercising to get/keep fit, getting a decent amount of sleep, fresh air & sunshine; and taking a vit D supplement (good idea to get tested, huge proportion of UK population are found to be deficient when they are).


Very valid points.

Keeping healthy is always a good idea, pandemic or otherwise.

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A month after the beaches opened on 14:28 - Jul 16 with 692 viewsgordon

A month after the beaches opened on 13:43 - Jul 16 by Tractor_Buck

That man is a legend. Cool, calm and collected on Twitter as well as refreshingly optimistic in a sea of doom. Well worth a follow.


He's definitely a legend amongst people who blow up planes and want early release from prison with a dodgy medical certificate.
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A month after the beaches opened on 14:34 - Jul 16 with 683 viewsLankHenners

A month after the beaches opened on 13:43 - Jul 16 by Tractor_Buck

That man is a legend. Cool, calm and collected on Twitter as well as refreshingly optimistic in a sea of doom. Well worth a follow.


He's a shameless grifter piggybacking on the population's more blase attitudes to present himself as a positive voice who knows more than the 'doom-mongers'. Daft git was saying we'd be over the pandemic by the end of June, then shifted it to September when it was evident he was massively wrong.

He's more of a fraud than Paul Lambert.

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A month after the beaches opened on 14:41 - Jul 16 with 663 viewsgordon

A month after the beaches opened on 13:32 - Jul 16 by clive_baker

I think there's definitely reasons to be optimistic that this thing potentially either mutating to the point where it becomes less dangerous, or that immunity sufficiently exists with the population that it doesn't have sufficient carriers to spread, and the rate of infection remains below 1, and ultimately dies out. Perhaps that's a happy consequence of the sh1t show that's been the dealing with the thing in the UK. I would've expected to see an uptick in the rate of spread in recent weeks otherwise.

The immunity point is interesting, perhaps not born out of having immunity specifically to Covid, but I think there might be something in having high levels of T cell immunity from other seasonal flus etc, that help make people less susceptible to Covid.

One thing is for sure, the severity of the disease shouldn't be underestimated, and the small incremental steps everyone can make can have a huge impact - social distancing, washing hands, face masks, staying in when poorly etc. My guess would be that there's no silver bullet, but through a combination of small steps we can keep making the gains. My nervousness is what's left behind as a consequence of the whole thing. Childhood obesity is up, unemployment is up, suicide is up, cancer referrals are way way down which begs the question how many people aren't getting the help they otherwise would have etc. The longer term effects are scary, but it's important to remain positive. Vigilant and positive.


Worth noting that eradication of Smallpox was a global effort over about 20 years with an effective vaccine. With global connectivity so much greater now, we're in this for the long haul.

Even with good uptake of a reasonably effective vaccine that gets to production as quickly as possible, the most likely outcome is that Covid becomes an endemic disease, and there are smaller-scale flare-ups here and there for years, but we get better at treatment and lots of the less extreme adjustments we've made over the last few months becomes part of life.
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A month after the beaches opened on 14:48 - Jul 16 with 643 viewsElderGrizzly

A month after the beaches opened on 10:17 - Jul 16 by bluelagos

Am not expert - but I think the key is to think of the virus like the flu.

(Don't anyone shoot me - I mean in terms on transmission - not in terms of impact)

Namely it spreads through germs on people, some in the air (sneezing etc.) So the key is closeness to infected people, number of interactions and avoiding things likely crowds on say tubes etc.

So why on earth anyone thought crowds on beaches would be a risk I have no idea. People go to the beach, sit in their groups with very little mixing interactions with strangers. Same with people sitting sun bathing in parks and/or making use of the outside.

Pubs are of course totally different but from what I have seen, 95% of pub goers are thankfully behaving sensibly.

Having said all that - the reason flu increases in winter is because so many of our interactions move indoors from outdoors. So there is a real risk of a spike come the winter if people go back to behaving as they did preCV.

So I think CV is here to stay, it far easier to spread than SARS was and is far more widespread.

*Just my opinions - am no doctor.


Obviously it is the behaviour that is key here.

Look across the USA where beaches, bars etc opened up and there have been huge spikes. But most of these opened up without masks and any semblance of social distancing.

Get those last two right and you can pretty much open up anything and avoid spikes.
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A month after the beaches opened on 15:41 - Jul 16 with 592 viewsFunge

A month after the beaches opened on 13:41 - Jul 16 by hype313



As others have said, hes a crank.

Check out Michael Levitt on the other hand if you want some proper optimism. Nobel Laureate, and hugely scathing of Neil Fergusons calculations with all of this.

I mean, we've all got opinions on this, but Levitt did strike a chord with me.
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