| Is this the sound a spanner in the works makes? 08:45 - Aug 20 with 2889 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
https://www.itv.com/news/2020-08-20/children-may-carry-more-covid-19-in-systems-
"I was surprised by the high levels of virus we found in children of all ages, especially in the first two days of infection. I was not expecting the viral load to be so high.
You think of a hospital, and of all of the precautions taken to treat severely ill adults, but the viral loads of these hospitalised patients are significantly lower than a ‘healthy child’ who is walking around with a high Sars-CoV-2 viral load."
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| Is this the sound a spanner in the works makes? on 09:44 - Aug 20 with 380 views | StokieBlue |
| Is this the sound a spanner in the works makes? on 09:39 - Aug 20 by Keno |
there is some evidence in the FS industry to counter that in that by savings the cost of large city offices they are not so concerned about reducing the costs of the staff themselves |
I think perhaps we will wait 3 years on that one and see.
Hopefully you are right and that is the attitude companies will take.
SB |  | | |
| Is this the sound a spanner in the works makes? on 09:45 - Aug 20 with 386 views | homer_123 |
| Is this the sound a spanner in the works makes? on 09:32 - Aug 20 by StokieBlue |
"Working from home is the norm."
I am slightly worried that everyone working from home being quite successful will open up the idea for companies to offshore a lot more jobs. If people don't need to be in the office then in many cases the role perhaps doesn't need to be in the UK at all.
Obviously not applicable to everything but certainly some sectors could be seen to fall into that category.
SB |
WFH is proving to be not a practical solution in the long term as many thought it would.
For those house sharing, living in small flats or bedsits or have caring responsibilities we are seeing huge increases in mental health and wellbeing issues.
It's not sustainable. You are going to see more 'flexi' working but not a situation where offices completely disappear. [Post edited 20 Aug 2020 9:47]
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| Is this the sound a spanner in the works makes? on 09:49 - Aug 20 with 370 views | itfcjoe |
| Is this the sound a spanner in the works makes? on 09:25 - Aug 20 by GeoffSentence |
Arrrghhh. This always gets me. Kids have lost a lot of time from school, but it isn't six months. We went into lockdown on March 23rd. That's about 4 months from then to the start of the summer holidays. In that time there were Easter Holidays and Half Term holidays. They have lost closer to 3 months schooling than 6 months. |
I was listening to a study and they said that, in the early years, the 6 weeks summer holiday takes 3 months to catch up on - i.e. it's not until the January of the following year that they get back to where they were in July of the previous year.
So whilst they've 'only' lost 4 months, there must almost be an argument for trying to keep everyone at school one year longer who has been affected - not that that is going to be particularly easy at any end.
But life has stopped for a year, that needs to be taken account of |  |
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| Is this the sound a spanner in the works makes? on 09:49 - Aug 20 with 371 views | Keno |
| Is this the sound a spanner in the works makes? on 09:44 - Aug 20 by StokieBlue |
I think perhaps we will wait 3 years on that one and see.
Hopefully you are right and that is the attitude companies will take.
SB |
totally agreed there!!
Did you see Schroders announcement last week, which has really p'd off Sadiq Khan? |  |
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| Is this the sound a spanner in the works makes? on 09:50 - Aug 20 with 368 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| Is this the sound a spanner in the works makes? on 09:35 - Aug 20 by bluelagos |
One of the problems seems to be, that we seem unable to take a view on things unless there is scientificly tested evidence.
So we have a new disease, and becuase we dont have the evidence around children and transmissions, we say "there is no evidence children transmit CV any more/less than.."
Yet there is plenty of evidence that children, in school environments do spread other viruses. Ask any teacher and they know how winter bugs spread quickly through a school. This has been happening for years so surely we can conclude, that in the absence of evidence to the contrary, it is probable that schools will be likely to be centers of transmission for CV, where it is in circulation.
The "There is no evidence...' position fails where something is new and science hasnt had the opportunity to do its bit.
Not to say the conclusions here are right/wrong, but I think we should have a default position of kids are (as per flu) likely superspreaders.
You know your sh1t far better than me. Am I wrong? |
I strongly suspect that only really really HUGE spanners will be allowed to stop the work(s) now. | |
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| Is this the sound a spanner in the works makes? on 09:51 - Aug 20 with 367 views | bluelagos |
| Is this the sound a spanner in the works makes? on 09:43 - Aug 20 by StokieBlue |
Well having that as the default position would certainly be conservative and the least risk, however it's also not right to say just because X spreads Y disease they must also spread Z disease.
I think it's almost certain that a percentage of kids will spread C19, there doesn't seem to be any reason why not and there isn't evidence to say they don't.
It depends on how much risk you are willing to take to achieve kids getting back to their educational and social development. Unfortunately that is an equation that is impossible to balance whilst pleasing everyone.
If you want 100% C19 risk-free schooling then kids aren't going to be going back for a year - that's a lot of a life to lose at that age being cooped up at home without contact with friends.
To be honest it's not a decision I'd like to have to make.
SB |
I think we need to get schools open and hopefully with sensible measures in place (staged break times, no assemblies, parents encouraged not to drop off kids)
The damage to them will start to magnify if schools dont open soon. Spoke to a Scottish teacher this week and they are fully open now thankfully.
But what we do if get new spikes I dont know. Local schools closures I guess may be on the cards. |  |
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| Is this the sound a spanner in the works makes? on 09:55 - Aug 20 with 355 views | footers |
| Is this the sound a spanner in the works makes? on 09:39 - Aug 20 by Keno |
there is some evidence in the FS industry to counter that in that by savings the cost of large city offices they are not so concerned about reducing the costs of the staff themselves |
We've already done exactly that. Although not covid related, many FS firms in the City have relocated staff to the EU because of Mifid II regulations post-Brexit. We opened new offices in Warsaw and Krakow to get around the changes and reduced our office size from ~400 seats to around half that. Many firms are in the same boat.
As for WFH, I've been a big fan of this idea for a long time. Mainly because I'm a lazy bastard, but it also greatly reduces pollution, wear and tear on the transport network and supposedly increases people's well being.
And if not WFH, then smarter schemes need to be put in place. For example, I worked on a project for the brilliant Singapore RMT whereby people are incentivised to use the network outside of peak hours. Say, you take the train in at 7:30 instead of 8:30 and get a free coffee for your troubles. Reduces the stress across the board. |  |
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| Is this the sound a spanner in the works makes? on 09:57 - Aug 20 with 348 views | Swansea_Blue |
| Is this the sound a spanner in the works makes? on 09:16 - Aug 20 by StokieBlue |
How long is a "bit" though? We have no idea how long it will take to "contain/eliminate" the virus. It might not even be possible to eliminate the virus without a fully effective vaccine.
Kids have already lost nearly 6 months schooling, it's storing up huge problems for the future if we don't get them back soon. Some won't even have a good foundation to build on at this rate if they miss the early years - learning to read and basic maths is pretty much the foundation of everything else they are going to do.
It's a difficult equation to balance.
SB |
It is difficult and obviously there's no clear idea on how long we'll need to put measures in place. I'm not entirely convinced time lost can't be made up. Our kids lost nearly a years schooling in the UK and bounced back pretty quickly. There are countries who start kids in school a lot later than us and yet have perfectly good overall attainment levels (better than us in some cases). Kids are remarkably resilient and the remote schooling networks are now largely in place.
It's obviously a problem for those kids who don't get the support they need at home or have special needs/issues. But again, schools have been open and taking may of those sorts of kids already. there's no reason why that can't carry on. Or continue with the part-time attendance at school on a rotation basis as we were doing (at least here in wales) before the summer holidays.
I guess the bigger problem is around more parents returning to work and therefore unable to supervise remote schooling. And I completely understand that kids/parents are going nuts too. It's not easy. |  |
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| Is this the sound a spanner in the works makes? on 10:01 - Aug 20 with 341 views | itfcjoe |
| Is this the sound a spanner in the works makes? on 09:51 - Aug 20 by bluelagos |
I think we need to get schools open and hopefully with sensible measures in place (staged break times, no assemblies, parents encouraged not to drop off kids)
The damage to them will start to magnify if schools dont open soon. Spoke to a Scottish teacher this week and they are fully open now thankfully.
But what we do if get new spikes I dont know. Local schools closures I guess may be on the cards. |
Spoke to a teacher last week at a Norwich school - lessons taught in 3 2hour blocks with half hour between them, no kids from different year groups having breaks at same time, no canteen etc. That;s the plan anyway | |
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| Is this the sound a spanner in the works makes? on 10:01 - Aug 20 with 340 views | bluelagos |
| Is this the sound a spanner in the works makes? on 09:57 - Aug 20 by Swansea_Blue |
It is difficult and obviously there's no clear idea on how long we'll need to put measures in place. I'm not entirely convinced time lost can't be made up. Our kids lost nearly a years schooling in the UK and bounced back pretty quickly. There are countries who start kids in school a lot later than us and yet have perfectly good overall attainment levels (better than us in some cases). Kids are remarkably resilient and the remote schooling networks are now largely in place.
It's obviously a problem for those kids who don't get the support they need at home or have special needs/issues. But again, schools have been open and taking may of those sorts of kids already. there's no reason why that can't carry on. Or continue with the part-time attendance at school on a rotation basis as we were doing (at least here in wales) before the summer holidays.
I guess the bigger problem is around more parents returning to work and therefore unable to supervise remote schooling. And I completely understand that kids/parents are going nuts too. It's not easy. |
The other huge issue is the attainment gap between wealthy and disadvantaged pupils. The more that is expected of pupils outside the classroom, the wider the gap.
Appreciate this is not of the govt doing, but they do need to address it. Given all else going on, and their inept performance so far, I dont see it happening. | |
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| Is this the sound a spanner in the works makes? on 10:13 - Aug 20 with 327 views | StokieBlue |
| Is this the sound a spanner in the works makes? on 10:01 - Aug 20 by itfcjoe |
Spoke to a teacher last week at a Norwich school - lessons taught in 3 2hour blocks with half hour between them, no kids from different year groups having breaks at same time, no canteen etc. That;s the plan anyway |
It's all fine and well designed but the simple fact is that many of those kids won't mix in year groups at school but as soon as they get home they will mix with their siblings from other year groups who then go in the next day and mix with their own year group.
So I don't see how not mixing the kids at school really prevents cross-year spreading.
SB | | | |
| Is this the sound a spanner in the works makes? on 10:16 - Aug 20 with 324 views | StokieBlue |
| Is this the sound a spanner in the works makes? on 09:57 - Aug 20 by Swansea_Blue |
It is difficult and obviously there's no clear idea on how long we'll need to put measures in place. I'm not entirely convinced time lost can't be made up. Our kids lost nearly a years schooling in the UK and bounced back pretty quickly. There are countries who start kids in school a lot later than us and yet have perfectly good overall attainment levels (better than us in some cases). Kids are remarkably resilient and the remote schooling networks are now largely in place.
It's obviously a problem for those kids who don't get the support they need at home or have special needs/issues. But again, schools have been open and taking may of those sorts of kids already. there's no reason why that can't carry on. Or continue with the part-time attendance at school on a rotation basis as we were doing (at least here in wales) before the summer holidays.
I guess the bigger problem is around more parents returning to work and therefore unable to supervise remote schooling. And I completely understand that kids/parents are going nuts too. It's not easy. |
"remote schooling networks are now largely in place."
I am not convinced this is really true. My kids got a PDF at the start of the week which is supposed to last a week. It's completed by Monday afternoon and I have to set them stuff for the rest of the week. It seems to be tailored to the minimum they need to learn that week. The schools are doing the best they can but "remote schooling networks" are nothing like actually being at school.
"kids/parents are going nuts too"
This is an important point. My kids aren't used to spending 12 hours a day together. They see each other before and after school and then all the day they are totally apart. They are totally fed up with each other thus the bickering starts. The only kids they see are each other, they need their friends.
"more parents returning to work"
This isn't possible anyway with the school system they are putting in place. Different drop offs and collections with no clubs means adults can't go back to work anyway (this is primary of course).
It really is an impossible situation without a vaccine.
SB [Post edited 20 Aug 2020 10:17]
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| Is this the sound a spanner in the works makes? on 10:20 - Aug 20 with 318 views | Guthrum |
| Is this the sound a spanner in the works makes? on 09:32 - Aug 20 by StokieBlue |
"Working from home is the norm."
I am slightly worried that everyone working from home being quite successful will open up the idea for companies to offshore a lot more jobs. If people don't need to be in the office then in many cases the role perhaps doesn't need to be in the UK at all.
Obviously not applicable to everything but certainly some sectors could be seen to fall into that category.
SB |
Tho that brings its own set of problems - linguistic, logistical and managerial. Not to mention time differences, depending on how far abroad you go. Plus the connectivity is only as good as the technology used. |  |
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| Is this the sound a spanner in the works makes? on 10:22 - Aug 20 with 316 views | StokieBlue |
| Is this the sound a spanner in the works makes? on 10:20 - Aug 20 by Guthrum |
Tho that brings its own set of problems - linguistic, logistical and managerial. Not to mention time differences, depending on how far abroad you go. Plus the connectivity is only as good as the technology used. |
I don't think any of those are real problems.
Lots of companies have offices in Poland, Ukraine, Spain, Russia etc which are much cheaper and work fine in the most part. It would just be an expansion of what already exists.
It's not as effective as being in the office but if nobody is in the office then I am sure it becomes much more enticing to senior management.
SB | | | |
| Is this the sound a spanner in the works makes? on 10:23 - Aug 20 with 310 views | StokieBlue |
| Is this the sound a spanner in the works makes? on 09:49 - Aug 20 by Keno |
totally agreed there!!
Did you see Schroders announcement last week, which has really p'd off Sadiq Khan? |
I saw they said that remote working would be the norm for them from now on - lets see how that looks in 3 years.
Why was Khan annoyed?
SB | | | |
| Is this the sound a spanner in the works makes? on 10:26 - Aug 20 with 305 views | Freddies_Ears |
But UK govt said recently there was little evidence that kids can spread Covid! They surely weren't lying? |  | | |
| Is this the sound a spanner in the works makes? on 10:28 - Aug 20 with 300 views | Freddies_Ears |
| Is this the sound a spanner in the works makes? on 09:16 - Aug 20 by StokieBlue |
How long is a "bit" though? We have no idea how long it will take to "contain/eliminate" the virus. It might not even be possible to eliminate the virus without a fully effective vaccine.
Kids have already lost nearly 6 months schooling, it's storing up huge problems for the future if we don't get them back soon. Some won't even have a good foundation to build on at this rate if they miss the early years - learning to read and basic maths is pretty much the foundation of everything else they are going to do.
It's a difficult equation to balance.
SB |
A competent govt might have worked with schools authorities and unions to come up with a semi-remote teaching plan for the next academic year. It wouldn't be perfect, but it would be a heck of a lot better than doing nothing. | | | |
| Is this the sound a spanner in the works makes? on 10:28 - Aug 20 with 297 views | homer_123 |
| Is this the sound a spanner in the works makes? on 10:13 - Aug 20 by StokieBlue |
It's all fine and well designed but the simple fact is that many of those kids won't mix in year groups at school but as soon as they get home they will mix with their siblings from other year groups who then go in the next day and mix with their own year group.
So I don't see how not mixing the kids at school really prevents cross-year spreading.
SB |
Given that clubs and activities outside school are taking place.
Football, Golf, Tennis etc etc
Where mixing is taking place - it's moot. | |
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| Is this the sound a spanner in the works makes? on 10:32 - Aug 20 with 294 views | StokieBlue |
| Is this the sound a spanner in the works makes? on 10:28 - Aug 20 by homer_123 |
Given that clubs and activities outside school are taking place.
Football, Golf, Tennis etc etc
Where mixing is taking place - it's moot. |
Then why preventing mixing at school? Might as well let them all mingle in the same way as normal given that will take place as soon as they leave the school grounds.
The issue here is that nothing is consistent. I don't blame the schools for that, the government haven't done well in their communication.
SB | | | |
| Is this the sound a spanner in the works makes? on 10:37 - Aug 20 with 291 views | itfcjoe |
| Is this the sound a spanner in the works makes? on 10:13 - Aug 20 by StokieBlue |
It's all fine and well designed but the simple fact is that many of those kids won't mix in year groups at school but as soon as they get home they will mix with their siblings from other year groups who then go in the next day and mix with their own year group.
So I don't see how not mixing the kids at school really prevents cross-year spreading.
SB |
I guess it limits spreading to an extent - best just for siblings and friends to mix than whole year groups. Ultimately siblings are almost guaranteed to pass it on to each other as it is | |
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| Is this the sound a spanner in the works makes? on 10:38 - Aug 20 with 291 views | homer_123 |
| Is this the sound a spanner in the works makes? on 10:32 - Aug 20 by StokieBlue |
Then why preventing mixing at school? Might as well let them all mingle in the same way as normal given that will take place as soon as they leave the school grounds.
The issue here is that nothing is consistent. I don't blame the schools for that, the government haven't done well in their communication.
SB |
I agree - there is no joined up thinking in any way.
Kids can mingle in groups outside school so why, indeed, keep them separate at school?
I can go and play table tennis and when playing, I don't have to wear a mask, but when sitting waiting to play - I have to wear a mask.
I must wear a mark in the shops (no issues there) but the staff don't have to. But I don't have to wear one to go to the pub or a place to eat. I have to wear one at a garden centre whilst walking round but not in the cafe. [Post edited 20 Aug 2020 10:39]
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| Is this the sound a spanner in the works makes? on 10:41 - Aug 20 with 285 views | StokieBlue |
| Is this the sound a spanner in the works makes? on 10:37 - Aug 20 by itfcjoe |
I guess it limits spreading to an extent - best just for siblings and friends to mix than whole year groups. Ultimately siblings are almost guaranteed to pass it on to each other as it is |
Exactly.
So if that transmission is going to happen between siblings across years then transmission through the school will happen across years given the entire year group can mix as a single bubble.
So whilst you might slow any transmission across years it's only going to be a minor slowing.
It's a really hard problem to solve, I accept that. It's just stating that there will be bubbles for years and no mingling etc gives a bit of a false sense of security in my opinion.
SB | | | |
| Is this the sound a spanner in the works makes? on 11:37 - Aug 20 with 268 views | Guthrum |
| Is this the sound a spanner in the works makes? on 10:22 - Aug 20 by StokieBlue |
I don't think any of those are real problems.
Lots of companies have offices in Poland, Ukraine, Spain, Russia etc which are much cheaper and work fine in the most part. It would just be an expansion of what already exists.
It's not as effective as being in the office but if nobody is in the office then I am sure it becomes much more enticing to senior management.
SB |
But I have come across companies pulling back from that due to perceived issues with cost, efficiency and/or complexity. | |
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| Is this the sound a spanner in the works makes? on 11:40 - Aug 20 with 266 views | davblue |
| Is this the sound a spanner in the works makes? on 09:45 - Aug 20 by homer_123 |
WFH is proving to be not a practical solution in the long term as many thought it would.
For those house sharing, living in small flats or bedsits or have caring responsibilities we are seeing huge increases in mental health and wellbeing issues.
It's not sustainable. You are going to see more 'flexi' working but not a situation where offices completely disappear. [Post edited 20 Aug 2020 9:47]
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Office costs certainly in London will be very high, You have insurance, staff to manage the property, Monitors, chairs, desks, maintenance, tea's, coffee etc that probably adds up. We have 5 offices all within a stones throw of each other in Central London. The costs of those offices and staff will be significant i would have thought.
I think there will be closures of offices and wfh encouraged. |  | | |
| Is this the sound a spanner in the works makes? on 11:42 - Aug 20 with 262 views | homer_123 |
| Is this the sound a spanner in the works makes? on 11:40 - Aug 20 by davblue |
Office costs certainly in London will be very high, You have insurance, staff to manage the property, Monitors, chairs, desks, maintenance, tea's, coffee etc that probably adds up. We have 5 offices all within a stones throw of each other in Central London. The costs of those offices and staff will be significant i would have thought.
I think there will be closures of offices and wfh encouraged. |
Oh no doubt there will be closures but not to the original extent thought or planned.
Which is no bad thing - already, just think about the potential impact on pension fund investments with large swathes of office laying empty..... | |
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