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UK Debt 2 Trillion 08:55 - Aug 21 with 1332 viewsOldsmoker

The UK's debt exceeded 2Trillion pounds for the first time ever.
227 billion more than this time last year.

Poll: What mode is best?

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UK Debt 2 Trillion on 08:59 - Aug 21 with 993 viewsfooters

Well thank the lord we have the Party of Fiscal Responsibility in charge and won't be spaffing huge sums of money on invisible ferries, useless PPE, HS2 and Trident.

footers QC - Prosecution Barrister, Hasketon Law Chambers
Poll: Question of the century: What do you call it?

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UK Debt 2 Trillion on 09:03 - Aug 21 with 968 viewsKeno

UK Debt 2 Trillion on 08:59 - Aug 21 by footers

Well thank the lord we have the Party of Fiscal Responsibility in charge and won't be spaffing huge sums of money on invisible ferries, useless PPE, HS2 and Trident.


Maybe Apple could buy us out?

Poll: What sort of fight should Downes have to get back into the team?
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UK Debt 2 Trillion on 09:05 - Aug 21 with 956 viewsfooters

UK Debt 2 Trillion on 09:03 - Aug 21 by Keno

Maybe Apple could buy us out?


More likely Amstrad knowing this shower.

footers QC - Prosecution Barrister, Hasketon Law Chambers
Poll: Question of the century: What do you call it?

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UK Debt 2 Trillion on 09:12 - Aug 21 with 921 viewsKeno

UK Debt 2 Trillion on 09:05 - Aug 21 by footers

More likely Amstrad knowing this shower.


too up market

maybe these two tho


Poll: What sort of fight should Downes have to get back into the team?
Blog: [Blog] My World Cup Reflections

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UK Debt 2 Trillion on 09:17 - Aug 21 with 902 viewsOldsmoker

And there's more.
The Office for Budget Responsibilty says that borrowing in the current financial year (April 2020 to March 2021) could be 322billion.

Growth in Borrowing, growth in spending, growth in debt, growth in nonsense, growth in Covid-19 deaths.
This government is all about growth - the Brexit dividend.

Poll: What mode is best?

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UK Debt 2 Trillion on 09:27 - Aug 21 with 882 viewshampstead_blue

Jim O'Neil nailed it.

Treat it like 'War Debt' and let it run until inflation erodes it.
The coupon is nominal. No need to repay it. In fact, any decent finance model will tell you NOT to repay it.

Assumption is to make an ass out of you and me. Those who assume they know you, when they don't are just guessing. Those who assume and insist they know are daft and in denial. Those who assume, insist, and deny the truth are plain stupid. Those who assume, insist, deny the truth and tell YOU they know you (when they don't) have an IQ in the range of 35-49.
Poll: Best Blackpool goal

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UK Debt 2 Trillion on 09:31 - Aug 21 with 870 viewsStokieBlue

UK Debt 2 Trillion on 09:27 - Aug 21 by hampstead_blue

Jim O'Neil nailed it.

Treat it like 'War Debt' and let it run until inflation erodes it.
The coupon is nominal. No need to repay it. In fact, any decent finance model will tell you NOT to repay it.


What?

It really doesn't work that way, the debt is issued with a determined expiry date on which the notional must be repaid or the UK is in default. You can't just say "I've changed my mind and I'll repay over 50 years in a worthlessly devalued currency".

The debt can of course be rolled but that is entirely dependent on someone wanting to buy it and there is absolutely no guarantee the coupon will remain small in perpetuity.

You can keep extending given willing borrowers but your model is entirely dependent on that.

SB

“You may not feel outstandingly robust, but if you are an average-sized adult you will contain within your modest frame no less than 7 X 10^18 joules of potential energy—enough to explode with the force of thirty very large hydrogen bombs, assuming you knew how to liberate it and really wished to make a point."

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UK Debt 2 Trillion on 09:31 - Aug 21 with 863 viewsEwan_Oozami

UK Debt 2 Trillion on 09:27 - Aug 21 by hampstead_blue

Jim O'Neil nailed it.

Treat it like 'War Debt' and let it run until inflation erodes it.
The coupon is nominal. No need to repay it. In fact, any decent finance model will tell you NOT to repay it.


There's unlikely to be any inflation at all for at least a generation....

Am viewing TWTD in Table Mode on this browser so apologies if replying to a completely different post to the one I intended.
Poll: Does the Forum think little snoozes during the day are acceptable, or not?

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UK Debt 2 Trillion on 09:36 - Aug 21 with 857 viewshampstead_blue

UK Debt 2 Trillion on 09:31 - Aug 21 by StokieBlue

What?

It really doesn't work that way, the debt is issued with a determined expiry date on which the notional must be repaid or the UK is in default. You can't just say "I've changed my mind and I'll repay over 50 years in a worthlessly devalued currency".

The debt can of course be rolled but that is entirely dependent on someone wanting to buy it and there is absolutely no guarantee the coupon will remain small in perpetuity.

You can keep extending given willing borrowers but your model is entirely dependent on that.

SB


This is Jim O'Neil's argument and not mine.
I'm simply relaying it.

However, I do like the idea of long running cheap debt.

I know how bullet bonds work. He was clearly looking at a different term, much longer, to make it work.

Assumption is to make an ass out of you and me. Those who assume they know you, when they don't are just guessing. Those who assume and insist they know are daft and in denial. Those who assume, insist, and deny the truth are plain stupid. Those who assume, insist, deny the truth and tell YOU they know you (when they don't) have an IQ in the range of 35-49.
Poll: Best Blackpool goal

0
UK Debt 2 Trillion on 09:39 - Aug 21 with 848 viewsOldsmoker

UK Debt 2 Trillion on 09:27 - Aug 21 by hampstead_blue

Jim O'Neil nailed it.

Treat it like 'War Debt' and let it run until inflation erodes it.
The coupon is nominal. No need to repay it. In fact, any decent finance model will tell you NOT to repay it.


This is not a policy that the UK should announce even if it was what they intended to do.
No-one is going to lend us money if we tell them we have no intention of paying it back.

Poll: What mode is best?

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UK Debt 2 Trillion on 09:40 - Aug 21 with 846 viewsfooters

UK Debt 2 Trillion on 09:36 - Aug 21 by hampstead_blue

This is Jim O'Neil's argument and not mine.
I'm simply relaying it.

However, I do like the idea of long running cheap debt.

I know how bullet bonds work. He was clearly looking at a different term, much longer, to make it work.


You didn't like the idea of debt when Labour were proposing large-scale borrowing for public works. Back then it would have bankrupted the country. But now you want to borrow billions and hide it under the mattress until someone forgets it exists.

footers QC - Prosecution Barrister, Hasketon Law Chambers
Poll: Question of the century: What do you call it?

2
UK Debt 2 Trillion on 09:42 - Aug 21 with 837 viewsStokieBlue

UK Debt 2 Trillion on 09:36 - Aug 21 by hampstead_blue

This is Jim O'Neil's argument and not mine.
I'm simply relaying it.

However, I do like the idea of long running cheap debt.

I know how bullet bonds work. He was clearly looking at a different term, much longer, to make it work.


But that involves exchanging existing debt at maturity for long running debt with a low coupon.

I think you might struggle to find investors willing to part with billions of pounds over a 50 year term at nominal interest. Coupon is literally a function of risk and over such a long period the risks are unquantifiable.

You said you liked the argument, you should be able to defend/support it not just say it's not your argument.

SB
[Post edited 21 Aug 9:44]

“You may not feel outstandingly robust, but if you are an average-sized adult you will contain within your modest frame no less than 7 X 10^18 joules of potential energy—enough to explode with the force of thirty very large hydrogen bombs, assuming you knew how to liberate it and really wished to make a point."

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UK Debt 2 Trillion on 09:44 - Aug 21 with 832 viewshampstead_blue

UK Debt 2 Trillion on 09:40 - Aug 21 by footers

You didn't like the idea of debt when Labour were proposing large-scale borrowing for public works. Back then it would have bankrupted the country. But now you want to borrow billions and hide it under the mattress until someone forgets it exists.


That's a very simplistic point.

Labour were going to give it away in some kind of fiscal ejuculation.
They were forced to make-up ideas on the hoof.....Women's pensions? JM called it a grave injustice.....funny that he'd never mentioned it before......

Sunak has used it to support the economy in a pandemic.

Fiscal ejuculation v pandemic.

Oh, if JC had got into power the debt would now be 3 or 4 times the size. He would be bailing out everyone who asked. Venezuela, Russia, Hezbollah. He would be pouring cash into them.

Assumption is to make an ass out of you and me. Those who assume they know you, when they don't are just guessing. Those who assume and insist they know are daft and in denial. Those who assume, insist, and deny the truth are plain stupid. Those who assume, insist, deny the truth and tell YOU they know you (when they don't) have an IQ in the range of 35-49.
Poll: Best Blackpool goal

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UK Debt 2 Trillion on 09:45 - Aug 21 with 829 viewsOldsmoker

UK Debt 2 Trillion on 09:40 - Aug 21 by footers

You didn't like the idea of debt when Labour were proposing large-scale borrowing for public works. Back then it would have bankrupted the country. But now you want to borrow billions and hide it under the mattress until someone forgets it exists.


Labour are Honest Joes.
Tories are snake-oil salesman.
People want to know what's the catch with Honest Joe - no-one is that honest.
The snake-oil salesman is selling us a miracle cure-all so that's the one to buy as all our problems will be solved.

Poll: What mode is best?

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UK Debt 2 Trillion on 09:45 - Aug 21 with 828 viewsStokieBlue

UK Debt 2 Trillion on 09:44 - Aug 21 by hampstead_blue

That's a very simplistic point.

Labour were going to give it away in some kind of fiscal ejuculation.
They were forced to make-up ideas on the hoof.....Women's pensions? JM called it a grave injustice.....funny that he'd never mentioned it before......

Sunak has used it to support the economy in a pandemic.

Fiscal ejuculation v pandemic.

Oh, if JC had got into power the debt would now be 3 or 4 times the size. He would be bailing out everyone who asked. Venezuela, Russia, Hezbollah. He would be pouring cash into them.


Your last sentence is just stupid.

All you are doing with nonsense like that is proving that you don't want to engage with the points being made.

SB

“You may not feel outstandingly robust, but if you are an average-sized adult you will contain within your modest frame no less than 7 X 10^18 joules of potential energy—enough to explode with the force of thirty very large hydrogen bombs, assuming you knew how to liberate it and really wished to make a point."

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UK Debt 2 Trillion on 09:48 - Aug 21 with 805 viewshampstead_blue

UK Debt 2 Trillion on 09:42 - Aug 21 by StokieBlue

But that involves exchanging existing debt at maturity for long running debt with a low coupon.

I think you might struggle to find investors willing to part with billions of pounds over a 50 year term at nominal interest. Coupon is literally a function of risk and over such a long period the risks are unquantifiable.

You said you liked the argument, you should be able to defend/support it not just say it's not your argument.

SB
[Post edited 21 Aug 9:44]


I hear you but also think that 'liking' an idea without knowing all the granular detail is fine.

I'm assuming JO would have gone deep, as such when he floated it he would be able to answer your questions.

I too agree that selling a miniscule coupon would be hard but do trust that JO had a credible solution.

Assumption is to make an ass out of you and me. Those who assume they know you, when they don't are just guessing. Those who assume and insist they know are daft and in denial. Those who assume, insist, and deny the truth are plain stupid. Those who assume, insist, deny the truth and tell YOU they know you (when they don't) have an IQ in the range of 35-49.
Poll: Best Blackpool goal

0
UK Debt 2 Trillion on 09:48 - Aug 21 with 800 viewsStokieBlue

UK Debt 2 Trillion on 09:48 - Aug 21 by hampstead_blue

I hear you but also think that 'liking' an idea without knowing all the granular detail is fine.

I'm assuming JO would have gone deep, as such when he floated it he would be able to answer your questions.

I too agree that selling a miniscule coupon would be hard but do trust that JO had a credible solution.


Got the link?

SB

“You may not feel outstandingly robust, but if you are an average-sized adult you will contain within your modest frame no less than 7 X 10^18 joules of potential energy—enough to explode with the force of thirty very large hydrogen bombs, assuming you knew how to liberate it and really wished to make a point."

1
UK Debt 2 Trillion on 09:49 - Aug 21 with 797 viewsOldsmoker

UK Debt 2 Trillion on 09:44 - Aug 21 by hampstead_blue

That's a very simplistic point.

Labour were going to give it away in some kind of fiscal ejuculation.
They were forced to make-up ideas on the hoof.....Women's pensions? JM called it a grave injustice.....funny that he'd never mentioned it before......

Sunak has used it to support the economy in a pandemic.

Fiscal ejuculation v pandemic.

Oh, if JC had got into power the debt would now be 3 or 4 times the size. He would be bailing out everyone who asked. Venezuela, Russia, Hezbollah. He would be pouring cash into them.


The debt is 2 Trillion. 3 time that size is 6Trillion.
You appear to be saying that in the 8 months since the election, JC would have spent some 4Trillion pounds???????????????????
You don't think things through do you.

Poll: What mode is best?

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UK Debt 2 Trillion on 09:52 - Aug 21 with 790 viewseireblue

UK Debt 2 Trillion on 09:48 - Aug 21 by hampstead_blue

I hear you but also think that 'liking' an idea without knowing all the granular detail is fine.

I'm assuming JO would have gone deep, as such when he floated it he would be able to answer your questions.

I too agree that selling a miniscule coupon would be hard but do trust that JO had a credible solution.


Re your first point, no, that is usually referred to as a state of ignorance.
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UK Debt 2 Trillion on 10:12 - Aug 21 with 744 viewsfactual_blue

UK Debt 2 Trillion on 08:59 - Aug 21 by footers

Well thank the lord we have the Party of Fiscal Responsibility in charge and won't be spaffing huge sums of money on invisible ferries, useless PPE, HS2 and Trident.


We Are All In This Together.*





*Terms and Conditions Apply. See in particular paragraph 45: Exemptions For Old Etonians.

Ta neige, Acadie, fait des larmes au soleil
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UK Debt 2 Trillion on 11:04 - Aug 21 with 684 viewshampstead_blue

UK Debt 2 Trillion on 09:48 - Aug 21 by StokieBlue

Got the link?

SB


I've had a quick look but can't see anything popping out of the screen.
If I get time later I will try again.

I am sure it was a R4 program or a link from

Am off to the gym with TMS.

Assumption is to make an ass out of you and me. Those who assume they know you, when they don't are just guessing. Those who assume and insist they know are daft and in denial. Those who assume, insist, and deny the truth are plain stupid. Those who assume, insist, deny the truth and tell YOU they know you (when they don't) have an IQ in the range of 35-49.
Poll: Best Blackpool goal

0
UK Debt 2 Trillion on 11:12 - Aug 21 with 670 viewsLibero

UK Debt 2 Trillion on 09:36 - Aug 21 by hampstead_blue

This is Jim O'Neil's argument and not mine.
I'm simply relaying it.

However, I do like the idea of long running cheap debt.

I know how bullet bonds work. He was clearly looking at a different term, much longer, to make it work.


You really do have to stop this IT'S NOT MY ARGUMENT bullsh*t.

If you're putting it forwards you are adopting it's values, you cannot distance yourself from the statement unless you are referencing it to directly condemn it.
[Post edited 21 Aug 11:45]
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UK Debt 2 Trillion on 11:58 - Aug 21 with 595 viewsAndrew4445

40% + of the UK national debt is held by the bank of England. The Government controls 100% of the BoE so, on payment of the coupon or maturation of that debt, the proceeds will cycle back round to HMT.

The excess borrowing this year is almost entirely funded by via BoE borrowing - it is increasing the 40%.

The remainder of the debt is held by a mix of institutional investors and pension schemes. The largest block of gilt holders are UK pension schemes - in other words, the second largest holders of UK debt are the UK residents and pension plan holders.

I wouldn't sweat the headline too much, always try and see who is on the other side, for every liability there is an asset.
[Post edited 21 Aug 12:01]
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UK Debt 2 Trillion on 12:00 - Aug 21 with 582 viewsKeno

UK Debt 2 Trillion on 11:58 - Aug 21 by Andrew4445

40% + of the UK national debt is held by the bank of England. The Government controls 100% of the BoE so, on payment of the coupon or maturation of that debt, the proceeds will cycle back round to HMT.

The excess borrowing this year is almost entirely funded by via BoE borrowing - it is increasing the 40%.

The remainder of the debt is held by a mix of institutional investors and pension schemes. The largest block of gilt holders are UK pension schemes - in other words, the second largest holders of UK debt are the UK residents and pension plan holders.

I wouldn't sweat the headline too much, always try and see who is on the other side, for every liability there is an asset.
[Post edited 21 Aug 12:01]


just out of interest when you say "40% + of the UK national debt s held by the bank of England"

where does the BofE get its money from?

Poll: What sort of fight should Downes have to get back into the team?
Blog: [Blog] My World Cup Reflections

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UK Debt 2 Trillion on 12:06 - Aug 21 with 564 viewsAndrew4445

UK Debt 2 Trillion on 12:00 - Aug 21 by Keno

just out of interest when you say "40% + of the UK national debt s held by the bank of England"

where does the BofE get its money from?


The BoE can create money, this is what QE does and the BoE ending up as the holder of UK debt is a result of QE. UK Govt issues Gilts and offers them to the market in the normal way (through GEMMS). BoE 'creates' cash to buy the gilts from the GEMMS. this creates more money in the GEMMS and aids liquidity.

The original intention had been to sell the debt back into the market when 'normal times' returned but there are no signs of that yet. As such, the debt held is just maturing and being replaced via the same mechanism. There is an argument for cancelling the BoE held debt but the economic argument against this is a risk of inflation - you would be effectively taking Sterling out of circulation.There is no sign of this actually happening though.

Also, it serves a political purpose to be able to point at a large number and use it as an excuse to hack away at the state.

Have a look at Japan's debt to GPD, this is probably where most Western countries will end up due to demographics. It hasn't been a problem for Japan and the have managed the stagnation relatively well.
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