| Covid Briefing: Patrick Vallance very good 11:10 - Sep 21 with 5986 views | Steve_M |
Current state of cases, likely impact if rate of increase isn't slowed is not good -> November would be like April.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-54231625
Sam Coates has the slides:
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| Covid Briefing: Patrick Vallance very good on 11:54 - Sep 21 with 3053 views | homer_123 |
| Covid Briefing: Patrick Vallance very good on 11:47 - Sep 21 by The_Romford_Blue |
And then in March it’ll be another 6 months.
And then another.
And then another.
And then another.
Until eventually the world decides it’s never going away and we simply learn to live with it and hope one day a vaccine turns up. |
Did you listen to the briefing.
Not the first time that they'v said it's here to stay. |  |
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| Covid Briefing: Patrick Vallance very good on 11:59 - Sep 21 with 3039 views | homer_123 |
| Covid Briefing: Patrick Vallance very good on 11:37 - Sep 21 by Herbivore |
All rather sobering. It needs to be followed up with some further measures to help get the virus back under control and slow the spread.
Interestingly they seemed quite bullish about the prospects of a vaccine in the not too distant future, which is good news. If they can produce an effective vaccine that will be a game changer. |
He did caveat the vaccine with stating that currently 'none were proven to work' but I agree - he did seem very positive, which is indeed good news.
The current rule of 6 is clearly not going to be enough and we'll, rightly, see further restrictions (be it rolling or local) between now and Jan. | |
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| Covid Briefing: Patrick Vallance very good on 12:21 - Sep 21 with 3007 views | Ace_High1 |
Both very professional and clearly knowledgeable. Was a good briefing.
Anyone jumping up and down in surprise as to where we are now is clearly someone not been following it closely. It was always going to be this way this winter considering how we have managed the pandemic since the start. [Post edited 21 Sep 2020 12:21]
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| I know it's twitter but SackVallance sackWhitty are both trending on 12:47 - Sep 21 with 2980 views | davblue |
i only had a brief look but if that's what people are seriously thinking then we are in trouble.
We are a country full of morons it seems. |  | | |
| Covid Briefing: Patrick Vallance very good on 13:01 - Sep 21 with 2942 views | factual_blue |
| Covid Briefing: Patrick Vallance very good on 11:47 - Sep 21 by The_Romford_Blue |
And then in March it’ll be another 6 months.
And then another.
And then another.
And then another.
Until eventually the world decides it’s never going away and we simply learn to live with it and hope one day a vaccine turns up. |
..and, if your generation survives to be forty, you'll be living in ruined building and cellars whilst slowly dying in the unending nuclear winter.
#itcouldbeworse |  |
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| I know it's twitter but SackVallance sackWhitty are both trending on 14:11 - Sep 21 with 2893 views | homer_123 |
| I know it's twitter but SackVallance sackWhitty are both trending on 12:47 - Sep 21 by davblue |
i only had a brief look but if that's what people are seriously thinking then we are in trouble.
We are a country full of morons it seems. |
I have to admit I have seriously overestimated the general intelligence and common sense levels of this Country. | |
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| Covid Briefing: Patrick Vallance very good on 15:18 - Sep 21 with 2849 views | monytowbray |
| Covid Briefing: Patrick Vallance very good on 13:01 - Sep 21 by factual_blue |
..and, if your generation survives to be forty, you'll be living in ruined building and cellars whilst slowly dying in the unending nuclear winter.
#itcouldbeworse |
Go vegan now and enjoy LOADS of food or don’t go vegan and live on rats/bugs by 2060.
Good odds... |  |
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| I know it's twitter but SackVallance sackWhitty are both trending on 15:57 - Sep 21 with 2823 views | HARRY10 |
| I know it's twitter but SackVallance sackWhitty are both trending on 14:11 - Sep 21 by homer_123 |
I have to admit I have seriously overestimated the general intelligence and common sense levels of this Country. |
brexit didn't give you are hint ? |  | | |
| Covid Briefing: Patrick Vallance very good on 16:14 - Sep 21 with 2816 views | ElephantintheRoom |
Only it wasnt very good was it? A couple of monologues of what might happen with worst case scenarios from two blokes who utterly discredited themselves by not standing up to Johnson and Cummings, when Cummings destroyed the lockdown and with it all government creditbility..
You could cook the stats in those selected maps in many ways - plenty of areas are coming down... and why is the north suddenly ahead of London, that oh so vital global hub?
No mention of false positives either
Presenting a divided UK, and worst case scenarios without any discussion is potentially very dangerous. Meanwhile in Sweden and New Zealand..... | |
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| Covid Briefing: Patrick Vallance very good on 16:43 - Sep 21 with 2789 views | Sarge |
| Covid Briefing: Patrick Vallance very good on 11:37 - Sep 21 by giant_stow |
I'm no legal but you sure you want to name one of your frauds and know-nothings? |
Particularly as I’m sure Professor Sikora knows considerably more than some bloke on a message board. | | | |
| Covid Briefing: Patrick Vallance very good on 17:09 - Sep 21 with 2762 views | LankHenners |
| Covid Briefing: Patrick Vallance very good on 16:43 - Sep 21 by Sarge |
Particularly as I’m sure Professor Sikora knows considerably more than some bloke on a message board. |
I'm sure the professor knows more than me about oncology and other medical things he actually has some background knowledge and insight on, but when it comes to pandemics, he's just some bloke on the internet as well I'm afraid.
For example, he was sure the pandemic would be gone by the end of June, I looked at the situation and thought it would probably be a lot longer than that until there's some light at the end of the tunnel. Me 1-0 Sikora. Although to be fair to suggest the old man was simply being dim rather undersells it. |  |
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| Covid Briefing: Patrick Vallance very good on 17:49 - Sep 21 with 2730 views | BlueBadger |
| Covid Briefing: Patrick Vallance very good on 16:14 - Sep 21 by ElephantintheRoom |
Only it wasnt very good was it? A couple of monologues of what might happen with worst case scenarios from two blokes who utterly discredited themselves by not standing up to Johnson and Cummings, when Cummings destroyed the lockdown and with it all government creditbility..
You could cook the stats in those selected maps in many ways - plenty of areas are coming down... and why is the north suddenly ahead of London, that oh so vital global hub?
No mention of false positives either
Presenting a divided UK, and worst case scenarios without any discussion is potentially very dangerous. Meanwhile in Sweden and New Zealand..... |
...well, in Sweden, they've had considerably worse health outcomes than everyone in Europe bar....well...us AND taken a broadly similar economic hit. |  |
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| Covid Briefing: Patrick Vallance very good on 17:54 - Sep 21 with 2717 views | Trequartista |
The second graph current cases are nowhere near doubling every 7 days. Cases *may* start to double every 7 days in the future but not on the evidence presented.
Were the experts questioned about this or did they skim over that bit? |  |
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| Covid Briefing: Patrick Vallance very good on 17:57 - Sep 21 with 2705 views | longtimefan |
| Covid Briefing: Patrick Vallance very good on 17:49 - Sep 21 by BlueBadger |
...well, in Sweden, they've had considerably worse health outcomes than everyone in Europe bar....well...us AND taken a broadly similar economic hit. |
Well bar us and Spain, Italy, Belgium and San Marino to be completely correct. | | | |
| Covid Briefing: Patrick Vallance very good on 18:05 - Sep 21 with 2697 views | Steve_M |
| Covid Briefing: Patrick Vallance very good on 17:54 - Sep 21 by Trequartista |
The second graph current cases are nowhere near doubling every 7 days. Cases *may* start to double every 7 days in the future but not on the evidence presented.
Were the experts questioned about this or did they skim over that bit? |
You mean the one that says "Example Scenario" and starts "If...."? | |
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| Covid Briefing: Patrick Vallance very good on 18:14 - Sep 21 with 2683 views | TractorWood |
| Covid Briefing: Patrick Vallance very good on 11:37 - Sep 21 by portmanking |
I thought it was diabolical....
Warning us that cases are doubling every 7 days when the graphs clearly showed that there was actually a FLATLINING of new cases:
It's all very well and good telling us the absolute worst case scenario, but why talk about it like it's GOING to happen?
Furthermore, the 8% immunity figure - Vallance spent 2 seconds alluding to potential other "immune responses" that could be protecting others and requiring no need for antibodies e.g. T-Cells.
All of a load of hot air IMO. Talk to us like the educated and informed adults that we are. |
I see where you coming from but I suspect his opinion that they are doubling every 7 days is based on sophisticated modelling that includes other measures like hospitalisations, requests for tests, tests awaiting process and myriad of other measures I'm a millions miles away from.
Unfortunately the painfully obvious failure of testing is undermining our ability to understand the data. Same with antibody testing. Have they approached London commuters and people who went to Asia, Italy etc in December to March to understand any trend?
I've long been of the view that a great number of people were infected in Feb and March and the virus was here before Christmas. |  |
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| Covid Briefing: Patrick Vallance very good on 18:14 - Sep 21 with 2684 views | Mullet |
| Covid Briefing: Patrick Vallance very good on 17:09 - Sep 21 by LankHenners |
I'm sure the professor knows more than me about oncology and other medical things he actually has some background knowledge and insight on, but when it comes to pandemics, he's just some bloke on the internet as well I'm afraid.
For example, he was sure the pandemic would be gone by the end of June, I looked at the situation and thought it would probably be a lot longer than that until there's some light at the end of the tunnel. Me 1-0 Sikora. Although to be fair to suggest the old man was simply being dim rather undersells it. |
Whilst pushing the outrage about cancer treatments on the NHS, guess what he owns.... private cancer hospitals.
Scummy piece of sh1t who has been warned publicly to stop using qualifications he hasn't got by the University he is claiming they're from.
People just lapped him up because he told them what they wanted to hear. We're seeing far too much of that still. |  |
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| Covid Briefing: Patrick Vallance very good on 18:33 - Sep 21 with 2662 views | LankHenners |
| Covid Briefing: Patrick Vallance very good on 18:14 - Sep 21 by Mullet |
Whilst pushing the outrage about cancer treatments on the NHS, guess what he owns.... private cancer hospitals.
Scummy piece of sh1t who has been warned publicly to stop using qualifications he hasn't got by the University he is claiming they're from.
People just lapped him up because he told them what they wanted to hear. We're seeing far too much of that still. |
Quite, that he only joined Twitter in March and immediately started pandering to the 'Keep Britain Free' mob was a bit of a red flag he was up to something sinister. | |
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| Covid Briefing: Patrick Vallance very good on 18:35 - Sep 21 with 2654 views | portmanking |
| Covid Briefing: Patrick Vallance very good on 18:14 - Sep 21 by TractorWood |
I see where you coming from but I suspect his opinion that they are doubling every 7 days is based on sophisticated modelling that includes other measures like hospitalisations, requests for tests, tests awaiting process and myriad of other measures I'm a millions miles away from.
Unfortunately the painfully obvious failure of testing is undermining our ability to understand the data. Same with antibody testing. Have they approached London commuters and people who went to Asia, Italy etc in December to March to understand any trend?
I've long been of the view that a great number of people were infected in Feb and March and the virus was here before Christmas. |
On your last paragraph, I too share that view. I had a fever the day after Boxing Day and experienced hallucinations, hot and cold sweats - the works. Luckily that's all it was, but it didn't feel like a normal 'flu' to me at the time... | | | |
| Covid Briefing: Patrick Vallance very good on 18:59 - Sep 21 with 2633 views | Steve_M |
| Covid Briefing: Patrick Vallance very good on 18:35 - Sep 21 by portmanking |
On your last paragraph, I too share that view. I had a fever the day after Boxing Day and experienced hallucinations, hot and cold sweats - the works. Luckily that's all it was, but it didn't feel like a normal 'flu' to me at the time... |
Yeah, whatever went around in late Dec and early Jan was pretty unpleasant. I had it plus a load of people in the immediate team at work.
Not sure there's any way of proving conclusively what it was though. | |
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| I know it's twitter but SackVallance sackWhitty are both trending on 19:09 - Sep 21 with 2620 views | Swansea_Blue |
| I know it's twitter but SackVallance sackWhitty are both trending on 14:11 - Sep 21 by homer_123 |
I have to admit I have seriously overestimated the general intelligence and common sense levels of this Country. |
Have you not been paying attention the last 4 years?  |  |
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| Covid Briefing: Patrick Vallance very good on 19:12 - Sep 21 with 2614 views | 26_Paz |
| Covid Briefing: Patrick Vallance very good on 11:53 - Sep 21 by monytowbray |
The problem is for us to learn to live with it we need a drastic overhaul of our entire geopolitical, economical, environmental and social norms on a global scale.
The fact capitalism just managed to fall over and plunge many every day folk into financial ruin due to a virus shows the system is deeply flawed.
Pandemics. Wild fires. Lower crop yields. Extreme weather. These are all symptoms of climate change which were predicted by scientists decades ago.
If humanity can't figure this out, we don't deserve to survive. |
Are you saying the pandemic is caused by climate change? Can you explain? |  |
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| I know it's twitter but SackVallance sackWhitty are both trending on 19:48 - Sep 21 with 2585 views | pointofblue |
| I know it's twitter but SackVallance sackWhitty are both trending on 14:11 - Sep 21 by homer_123 |
I have to admit I have seriously overestimated the general intelligence and common sense levels of this Country. |
Our Prime Minister is Boris Johnson - how much more evidence did you need? | |
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| Covid Briefing: Patrick Vallance very good on 20:51 - Sep 21 with 2551 views | Trequartista |
| Covid Briefing: Patrick Vallance very good on 18:05 - Sep 21 by Steve_M |
You mean the one that says "Example Scenario" and starts "If...."? |
Yes, if the 'if' bears no relation to the current trend, what is the point of 'if'? You might as well draw a rollercoaster bar chart and put 'if'. | |
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