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US election megathread 03:24 - Sep 23 with 78960 viewsSpruceMoose

Seeing as we are approaching the presidential debates, and with the actual election being only 42 days away, maybe we could keep this as a US election megathread for those on here who are interested? One location for all the discussion would prevent multiple threads clogging up the board for those who don't care to get involved?

Personally, the reality of having to experience this election in the near future is stressful AF so if anyone else wants to get stressed together... Jump on board.

Now, insert all the usual caveats about polling here but...it's looking positive that we will be rid of Trump come 2021, much to the disappointment of a couple of posters on here. 538 are well respected in the field of poll analysis so what they announce should be taken seriously.

Of course their analysis doesn't take account of any election fraud, Russian interference, voter suppression etc. But it's positive news none the less. Once Trump is gone, we can work on Johnson. Decent people of the world... Unite!

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
[Post edited 23 Sep 2020 3:32]

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US election megathread on 03:38 - Sep 23 with 6856 viewsSpruceMoose

Also, in other news, Mike Bloomberg paid the fines of 32,000 felons in Florida today, at a cost of $16,000,000, which enables them to vote. I know billionaires have their own seperate agenda, but this is still a definite win for democracy.

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US election megathread on 03:45 - Sep 23 with 6842 viewsNewcyBlue

It’s going to be an interesting end of the year. By interesting I mean terrifying.

I saw a report the other day where Trump suggested he might make it law, via an executive order, that Biden cannot be President.

The twists and turns are going to be incredible to watch, and deeply troubling for you guys over there.

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US election megathread on 03:47 - Sep 23 with 6843 viewsNewcyBlue

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tommybeer/2020/09/20/trump-threatens-to-issue-execu

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US election megathread on 03:52 - Sep 23 with 6838 viewsSpruceMoose

US election megathread on 03:45 - Sep 23 by NewcyBlue

It’s going to be an interesting end of the year. By interesting I mean terrifying.

I saw a report the other day where Trump suggested he might make it law, via an executive order, that Biden cannot be President.

The twists and turns are going to be incredible to watch, and deeply troubling for you guys over there.


Aye... I think in a straight up election vote with no funny business Trump has his arse handed to him. He barely scraped over the line in the last election and hasn't grown his support at all. He doesn't have the votes to win.

But...His path to victory is through either a low suppressed turn out where people don't come out to vote against him or are prevented from voting, or by muddying the waters so much that he can contest the election and take it to the courts. RBG passing this week is particularly tragic in terms of this last course of action.

The Democrats need to win this in a landslide to keep it out of the courts imo. Trump knows that if he loses he will spend the rest of his life in court/prison. Desperate people do desperate things.

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US election megathread on 03:53 - Sep 23 with 6835 viewsSpruceMoose

US election megathread on 03:47 - Sep 23 by NewcyBlue

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tommybeer/2020/09/20/trump-threatens-to-issue-execu


Can't say it's Facism yet though, not according to some on here. Not until he grows the mustache apparently.

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US election megathread on 05:49 - Sep 23 with 6789 viewsElderGrizzly

This is nice to see too. Expect a Trump whinge soon about John McCain

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US election megathread on 07:31 - Sep 23 with 6727 viewsKeno

US election megathread on 05:49 - Sep 23 by ElderGrizzly

This is nice to see too. Expect a Trump whinge soon about John McCain



With Biden getting support like that it could be chips for Trump

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US election megathread on 08:04 - Sep 23 with 6697 viewsGuthrum

US election megathread on 03:53 - Sep 23 by SpruceMoose

Can't say it's Facism yet though, not according to some on here. Not until he grows the mustache apparently.


That's partly because - unless you're Rik from The Young Ones - Fascism is a lot more than just "being nasty to people". It's a wide-ranging political and economic ideology, to much of which Trump does not subscribe.

He is a champion of unfettered capitalism and the primacy of the rich (that would be anathema to a Fascist, they advocated state-controlled semi-socialism).

He is trying to undermine the electoral system to his own advantage, but has not attempted to formally abolish or overthrow it (as a true Fascist would).

His is not a promoter or starter of foreign - particularly expansionist - wars (Fascists mostly were).

He has not tried to bring the country together, all pointing in the same direction (as a Fascist would), but is happy to let divisions continue and to support minority interests.

Many of his supporters exhibit racism against other US citizens (Fascists were highly nationalistic, but not specifically racist, certainly not when it came to undermining the unity of the nation; the nazis were more the exception than the rule).

In reality, many of his traits are closer to nazism: Egomania, incompetent subordinates picked more for personal loyalty, paying lip-service to helping the masses while constantly sucking up to big business, tolerating (if not openly promoting) damaging conspiracy theories and racist ideologies. Only the expansionist militarism is really missing.

And, for those who like their perjorative terms, calling someone a "nazi" is probably worse than "Fascist".

Good Lord! Whatever is it?
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US election megathread on 08:12 - Sep 23 with 6665 viewsBanksterDebtSlave

Trump will win....lower taxes innit!

"They break our legs and tell us to be grateful when they offer us crutches."
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US election megathread on 08:22 - Sep 23 with 6663 viewsGuthrum

US election megathread on 03:45 - Sep 23 by NewcyBlue

It’s going to be an interesting end of the year. By interesting I mean terrifying.

I saw a report the other day where Trump suggested he might make it law, via an executive order, that Biden cannot be President.

The twists and turns are going to be incredible to watch, and deeply troubling for you guys over there.


That's not even possible. Executive orders cannot contravene the Constitution. There is no legal basis for such an order and it would be overturned by the courts*. The US President cannot simply do whatever he wants.

Amending the Constitution is an entirely Congressional matter, requiring a two-thirds majority (which the Republicans do not have, even were they willing to support such a thing). The President is not part of the process.


* Even a coservative-leaning one. Setting such a precedent would be extremely dangerous for the future.

Good Lord! Whatever is it?
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US election megathread on 09:06 - Sep 23 with 6625 viewsTangledupin_Blue

US election megathread on 08:04 - Sep 23 by Guthrum

That's partly because - unless you're Rik from The Young Ones - Fascism is a lot more than just "being nasty to people". It's a wide-ranging political and economic ideology, to much of which Trump does not subscribe.

He is a champion of unfettered capitalism and the primacy of the rich (that would be anathema to a Fascist, they advocated state-controlled semi-socialism).

He is trying to undermine the electoral system to his own advantage, but has not attempted to formally abolish or overthrow it (as a true Fascist would).

His is not a promoter or starter of foreign - particularly expansionist - wars (Fascists mostly were).

He has not tried to bring the country together, all pointing in the same direction (as a Fascist would), but is happy to let divisions continue and to support minority interests.

Many of his supporters exhibit racism against other US citizens (Fascists were highly nationalistic, but not specifically racist, certainly not when it came to undermining the unity of the nation; the nazis were more the exception than the rule).

In reality, many of his traits are closer to nazism: Egomania, incompetent subordinates picked more for personal loyalty, paying lip-service to helping the masses while constantly sucking up to big business, tolerating (if not openly promoting) damaging conspiracy theories and racist ideologies. Only the expansionist militarism is really missing.

And, for those who like their perjorative terms, calling someone a "nazi" is probably worse than "Fascist".


In much of your penultimate paragraph you could be describing Boris Johnson.

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US election megathread on 09:12 - Sep 23 with 6612 viewsElephantintheRoom

Our first past the post system ensures an elected government that does not represent the wishes of the majority of voters every single time.

The electoral college, which is a throwback to when travel and communication were a tad difficult sometimes ensures a president elected by the majority of voters.

Not last time though - and probably not this time. probably time for the democrats to mobilise the dead again

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US election megathread on 09:56 - Sep 23 with 6564 viewsStokieBlue

Nate Silver has long been seen as a good modeler and as you say, his website 538 is a really excellent read.

For those interested I recommend reading the papers on the modelling methodology and how various different scenarios are taken into account. It's a good read:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-fivethirtyeights-2020-presidential-fore

SB

“You may not feel outstandingly robust, but if you are an average-sized adult you will contain within your modest frame no less than 7 X 10^18 joules of potential energy—enough to explode with the force of thirty very large hydrogen bombs, assuming you knew how to liberate it and really wished to make a point."

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US election megathread on 10:05 - Sep 23 with 6543 viewsBlueBadger

US election megathread on 08:04 - Sep 23 by Guthrum

That's partly because - unless you're Rik from The Young Ones - Fascism is a lot more than just "being nasty to people". It's a wide-ranging political and economic ideology, to much of which Trump does not subscribe.

He is a champion of unfettered capitalism and the primacy of the rich (that would be anathema to a Fascist, they advocated state-controlled semi-socialism).

He is trying to undermine the electoral system to his own advantage, but has not attempted to formally abolish or overthrow it (as a true Fascist would).

His is not a promoter or starter of foreign - particularly expansionist - wars (Fascists mostly were).

He has not tried to bring the country together, all pointing in the same direction (as a Fascist would), but is happy to let divisions continue and to support minority interests.

Many of his supporters exhibit racism against other US citizens (Fascists were highly nationalistic, but not specifically racist, certainly not when it came to undermining the unity of the nation; the nazis were more the exception than the rule).

In reality, many of his traits are closer to nazism: Egomania, incompetent subordinates picked more for personal loyalty, paying lip-service to helping the masses while constantly sucking up to big business, tolerating (if not openly promoting) damaging conspiracy theories and racist ideologies. Only the expansionist militarism is really missing.

And, for those who like their perjorative terms, calling someone a "nazi" is probably worse than "Fascist".


Plus as well, there's the Actual Paid Up nazis, like Bannon that he's spent a lot of hi time cosying up to and/or actually employing.

Ham>Lam
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US election megathread on 10:45 - Sep 23 with 6508 viewsBent_double

US election megathread on 08:12 - Sep 23 by BanksterDebtSlave

Trump will win....lower taxes innit!


I'm worried that he will pull something out of the bag in the last few weeks or even days leading upto the election, that persuades enough people to give him another 4 years.

He seemed to have reigned things in a bit the last few weeks - if the news over here is anything to go by - no doubt his team will be desperate to show how presidential he is/can be and avoid any absolute clangers that hand Biden the win.

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US election megathread on 10:59 - Sep 23 with 6497 viewsmonytowbray

America needs Trump not only gone from the WH but all his criminality on trial from the family head downwards and all associates (both in and out of government globally for the last 4 decades).

My worry is Cult45, who will instantly scream DEEP STATE HOAX whilst Trump tweets them towards violence and civil war.

The truth is not the midpoint between a fact and a lie.
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US election megathread on 11:32 - Sep 23 with 6462 viewsOldsmoker

US election megathread on 10:59 - Sep 23 by monytowbray

America needs Trump not only gone from the WH but all his criminality on trial from the family head downwards and all associates (both in and out of government globally for the last 4 decades).

My worry is Cult45, who will instantly scream DEEP STATE HOAX whilst Trump tweets them towards violence and civil war.


I think you are quite right to worry about Trumps cult of supporters and Americans should be too.
Americans have already started voting. In the UK, we do it all on one day for those voting in person, where some states you have 2 months.
I saw a news report where Trump supporters turned up at a voting station and tried to intimidate the queuing voters by shouting and waving banners. The polling supervisors allowed voters to enter the hall to queue so that the Trump thugs couldn't get at them. Some of those queuing may have been voting for Trump.
Is the right to protest greater than the right to vote? The report made no mention of police attending the polling station to keep order.
This is just the start and I'm sure it's going to get ramped up as we move closer to Nov 3rd.

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US election megathread on 12:14 - Sep 23 with 6436 viewsmonytowbray

US election megathread on 11:32 - Sep 23 by Oldsmoker

I think you are quite right to worry about Trumps cult of supporters and Americans should be too.
Americans have already started voting. In the UK, we do it all on one day for those voting in person, where some states you have 2 months.
I saw a news report where Trump supporters turned up at a voting station and tried to intimidate the queuing voters by shouting and waving banners. The polling supervisors allowed voters to enter the hall to queue so that the Trump thugs couldn't get at them. Some of those queuing may have been voting for Trump.
Is the right to protest greater than the right to vote? The report made no mention of police attending the polling station to keep order.
This is just the start and I'm sure it's going to get ramped up as we move closer to Nov 3rd.


Let’s also not forget he is recruiting them too, hired goons is a playbook straight out of fascism.



Trump’s WH is a criminal organisation making a last stand. Question is, if he is voted out what do they charge him with first?!

The truth is not the midpoint between a fact and a lie.
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US election megathread on 12:19 - Sep 23 with 6426 viewsgiant_ullaa

US election megathread on 12:14 - Sep 23 by monytowbray

Let’s also not forget he is recruiting them too, hired goons is a playbook straight out of fascism.



Trump’s WH is a criminal organisation making a last stand. Question is, if he is voted out what do they charge him with first?!


If they don't want to spark a civil war, perhaps its best to charge him with nothing and let him shuffle off somewhere (Scotland?) in return for keeping his mouth shut.

Has anyone ever looked at their own postings for last day or so? Oh my... so sorry.
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US election megathread on 12:21 - Sep 23 with 6421 viewsjaseitfc2015

US election megathread on 03:52 - Sep 23 by SpruceMoose

Aye... I think in a straight up election vote with no funny business Trump has his arse handed to him. He barely scraped over the line in the last election and hasn't grown his support at all. He doesn't have the votes to win.

But...His path to victory is through either a low suppressed turn out where people don't come out to vote against him or are prevented from voting, or by muddying the waters so much that he can contest the election and take it to the courts. RBG passing this week is particularly tragic in terms of this last course of action.

The Democrats need to win this in a landslide to keep it out of the courts imo. Trump knows that if he loses he will spend the rest of his life in court/prison. Desperate people do desperate things.


His path to victory is the unlikely cocktail of

- % of mail in votes not being counted - there is genuine scope for this particularly in Pennsylvania
- Democrats making similar campaign errors to 2016; already this may be happening, in Michigan Bidens campaign is not as visible as it could be
- rallying his base to secure his supreme court nominee
- low turnout of ethnic minority voters , particularly in urban areas ; can Biden do better with them than Clinton & get the turnout back towards Obama like levels. Biden also has to do better with Latinos if he wants Florida.

Trumps only shot at winning is the electoral college & that is a very narrow path as I see Florida & Pennsylvania as the tipping point , meaning he doesn't carry both of them its curtains.

The mail in vote issue will dominate everything though as we could end of with smoke screen trump landslide among "on the day" votes , while mail ins are being counted the days after - either way its going to get messy
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US election megathread on 12:48 - Sep 23 with 6396 viewsJ2BLUE

I've read theories where Biden is going to get destroyed in the debates and then he will be replaced with someone else. I can't see it but i've had a few small bets.

£1 Clinton @ 359/1
£5 Cuomo @ 999/1
£1 Warren @ 999/1
£1 Sanders @ 999/1
£1 Bloomberg @ 999/1

I love an American presidential election. I hope we're all going to bundle in the chat room again like last time.

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US election megathread on 12:58 - Sep 23 with 6391 viewsDanTheMan

US election megathread on 12:14 - Sep 23 by monytowbray

Let’s also not forget he is recruiting them too, hired goons is a playbook straight out of fascism.



Trump’s WH is a criminal organisation making a last stand. Question is, if he is voted out what do they charge him with first?!


America is lost.

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US election megathread on 12:59 - Sep 23 with 6392 viewsLankHenners

Every day up to election eve favours Biden and if it were held on any of those days he'd see a comfortable victory but I still hold my breath that he'll get it over the line. Any Trump win will be by the tiniest of margins and will largely depend on the un-democratic stuff like voter suppression and any nefarious attempts at voter fraud which you'd be naive to not think will happen.

The Trump/Biden debates will be artifacts of culture - two old guys whose brains are respectively gone and going rambling incoherently at each other.

Just because I don't care doesn't mean I don't understand.
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US election megathread on 13:07 - Sep 23 with 6378 viewsSpruceMoose

US election megathread on 12:48 - Sep 23 by J2BLUE

I've read theories where Biden is going to get destroyed in the debates and then he will be replaced with someone else. I can't see it but i've had a few small bets.

£1 Clinton @ 359/1
£5 Cuomo @ 999/1
£1 Warren @ 999/1
£1 Sanders @ 999/1
£1 Bloomberg @ 999/1

I love an American presidential election. I hope we're all going to bundle in the chat room again like last time.


Thems some funny bets J2!

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US election megathread on 13:09 - Sep 23 with 6369 viewsJ2BLUE

US election megathread on 13:07 - Sep 23 by SpruceMoose

Thems some funny bets J2!


Meh I don't think he'll be replaced but it was worth a shot.

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