| US election megathread 03:24 - Sep 23 with 137970 views | SpruceMoose |
Seeing as we are approaching the presidential debates, and with the actual election being only 42 days away, maybe we could keep this as a US election megathread for those on here who are interested? One location for all the discussion would prevent multiple threads clogging up the board for those who don't care to get involved?
Personally, the reality of having to experience this election in the near future is stressful AF so if anyone else wants to get stressed together... Jump on board.
Now, insert all the usual caveats about polling here but...it's looking positive that we will be rid of Trump come 2021, much to the disappointment of a couple of posters on here. 538 are well respected in the field of poll analysis so what they announce should be taken seriously.
Of course their analysis doesn't take account of any election fraud, Russian interference, voter suppression etc. But it's positive news none the less. Once Trump is gone, we can work on Johnson. Decent people of the world... Unite!
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/ [Post edited 23 Sep 2020 3:32]
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| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| US election megathread (n/t) on 18:00 - Oct 8 with 3931 views | m14_blue |
| US election megathread (n/t) on 17:21 - Oct 8 by flimflam |
I will bookmark this post for about a month from now.
The Polls for 2016, Brexit, 2019 all called it massively wrong and have done again.
Why people take any notice of them whatsoever I have no idea. |
You’ve really gone all in on this haven’t you?
You’re going to look pretty silly if you’re wrong and all the polling and other expert analysts are right. |  | | |
| US election megathread (n/t) on 18:11 - Oct 8 with 3918 views | SpruceMoose |
| US election megathread (n/t) on 18:00 - Oct 8 by m14_blue |
You’ve really gone all in on this haven’t you?
You’re going to look pretty silly if you’re wrong and all the polling and other expert analysts are right. |
Doubt we will ever see him again if it goes the way the polls have been suggesting.
I've said all along that polls are just a snapshot in time, anything can happen between now and election day and that Trump isn't out of it yet. So should he win the election I'll be back here without feeling sheepish.
Flimflam though, the lad has gone all in on the Trump train. I'd love to wish him luck, but I can't. | |
| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| US election megathread (n/t) on 18:29 - Oct 8 with 3895 views | HARRY10 |
| US election megathread (n/t) on 18:11 - Oct 8 by SpruceMoose |
Doubt we will ever see him again if it goes the way the polls have been suggesting.
I've said all along that polls are just a snapshot in time, anything can happen between now and election day and that Trump isn't out of it yet. So should he win the election I'll be back here without feeling sheepish.
Flimflam though, the lad has gone all in on the Trump train. I'd love to wish him luck, but I can't. |
Sure they are a snapshot, but when those snapshots consistently show one candidate not only maintaining a consistent lead but, as with the past couple of weeks, actually increasing that lead - most importantly in the 'swing' states, then you have to recognise what the probable result is going to be.
Reading comments from those who have switched their vote shows that it is the very things Trump is continuing to do that has turned them away. His making this vote about him, not the country is a huge negative to voters and one he seems incapable of grasping.
Further evidence here
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/07/us/politics/ohio-nevada-poll-trump-biden.html
Trump is losing ground in states that were expected to be seen as a given. If he cannot even hold those states then what chance of taking solid Biden states ? | | | |
| US election megathread (n/t) on 18:31 - Oct 8 with 3891 views | SpruceMoose |
| US election megathread (n/t) on 18:29 - Oct 8 by HARRY10 |
Sure they are a snapshot, but when those snapshots consistently show one candidate not only maintaining a consistent lead but, as with the past couple of weeks, actually increasing that lead - most importantly in the 'swing' states, then you have to recognise what the probable result is going to be.
Reading comments from those who have switched their vote shows that it is the very things Trump is continuing to do that has turned them away. His making this vote about him, not the country is a huge negative to voters and one he seems incapable of grasping.
Further evidence here
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/07/us/politics/ohio-nevada-poll-trump-biden.html
Trump is losing ground in states that were expected to be seen as a given. If he cannot even hold those states then what chance of taking solid Biden states ? |
Oh I know, I'm fully onboard and expecting Biden to win.
I mainly say a poll disclaimer to not have to fend off a string of replies telling me 'polls have been wrong before!' and having to put the same thoughtful points you included in your reply over and over again! | |
| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| US election megathread (n/t) on 18:48 - Oct 8 with 3884 views | HARRY10 |
| US election megathread (n/t) on 18:31 - Oct 8 by SpruceMoose |
Oh I know, I'm fully onboard and expecting Biden to win.
I mainly say a poll disclaimer to not have to fend off a string of replies telling me 'polls have been wrong before!' and having to put the same thoughtful points you included in your reply over and over again! |
The odd thing is that when you actually check those polls, they were not wrong
It;s just that some have little other argument
The sort of 'stab in the back' myth that was populat in post | | | |
| US election megathread (n/t) on 18:51 - Oct 8 with 3882 views | HARRY10 |
| US election megathread (n/t) on 18:31 - Oct 8 by SpruceMoose |
Oh I know, I'm fully onboard and expecting Biden to win.
I mainly say a poll disclaimer to not have to fend off a string of replies telling me 'polls have been wrong before!' and having to put the same thoughtful points you included in your reply over and over again! |
Whereas the polls were not wrong, it is just some now have little else to use
Much the same sort were using the 'stab in the back' myth in post WW1 Germany | | | |
| US election megathread (n/t) on 18:51 - Oct 8 with 3882 views | SpruceMoose |
| US election megathread (n/t) on 18:48 - Oct 8 by HARRY10 |
The odd thing is that when you actually check those polls, they were not wrong
It;s just that some have little other argument
The sort of 'stab in the back' myth that was populat in post |
In other news, Trump attempts to woo back the elderly voters who have been leaving him in droves:
“You’re not vulnerable, but they like to say the vulnerable, but you’re the least vulnerable, but for this one thing you are vulnerable and so am I.”
November can't come quick enough. | |
| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| US election megathread (n/t) on 19:05 - Oct 8 with 3868 views | HARRY10 |
| US election megathread (n/t) on 18:51 - Oct 8 by SpruceMoose |
In other news, Trump attempts to woo back the elderly voters who have been leaving him in droves:
“You’re not vulnerable, but they like to say the vulnerable, but you’re the least vulnerable, but for this one thing you are vulnerable and so am I.”
November can't come quick enough. |
"November can't come quick enough. "
and miss all the upcoming fun ?
Trumps next 'mass' rally where the crowd has all the numbers, and enthusiasm of Grimsby at home on a cold Tuesday night in January.
More Mussolini type deranged pronouncements from a balcony.
To paraphrase ....
Whom the gods wish to destroy they continue to make even more madder by the day | | | |
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| US election megathread (n/t) on 19:09 - Oct 8 with 3865 views | tractordownsouth |
| US election megathread (n/t) on 17:21 - Oct 8 by flimflam |
I will bookmark this post for about a month from now.
The Polls for 2016, Brexit, 2019 all called it massively wrong and have done again.
Why people take any notice of them whatsoever I have no idea. |
I'm in the middle of writing an article about why 2016 and 2020 are completelt different (and I say that as someone who predicted Trump to win last time), but here are the bullet points...
1) Hillary Clinton was historically unpopular — Joe Biden isn’t.
2) Trump now has to defend new swing states such as Arizona, Texas and Georgia. He’s likely to win the last 2 but he’ll still have to spend there to make sure. That’s on top of defending <1% majorities in the rustbelt.
3) The Trump campaign has no message — his slogan is Keep America Great but he’s still randomly tweeting MAGA every so often.
4) The ‘Joe Biden and the hard left will burn down the suburbs rhetoric’ isn’t going to wash as he was VP for 8 years and that wasn't even remotely close to happening
5) Covid has shown that hard right populists are utterly useless when they’re in government. Anything that can’t be solved with a slogan is too tough for them and they haven’t delivered on 2016 promises with regards to jobs in the rustbelt.
6) Trump is polarising many moderate Republicans. Presidents win second terms by bringing people together, but Trump has alienated people and not added to his electoral coalition to make up for it
7) Crucially, there’s a smaller pool of undecided voters — most people know where they stand on Trump and Biden. Last time, Trump won because most of this group plumped for him as the lesser of 2 evils on election day. For him to repeat his win, almost every single undecided voter will have to pick him, and even then that may not be enough. Look at the polling - Biden is regularly getting over 50%, whereas Clinton only did a couple of times. |  |
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| US election megathread (n/t) on 19:16 - Oct 8 with 3854 views | SpruceMoose |
| US election megathread (n/t) on 19:05 - Oct 8 by HARRY10 |
"November can't come quick enough. "
and miss all the upcoming fun ?
Trumps next 'mass' rally where the crowd has all the numbers, and enthusiasm of Grimsby at home on a cold Tuesday night in January.
More Mussolini type deranged pronouncements from a balcony.
To paraphrase ....
Whom the gods wish to destroy they continue to make even more madder by the day |
Yeah having lived with it every day for the last four years I'm ready for it to be over. | |
| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| US election megathread (n/t) on 19:16 - Oct 8 with 3853 views | SpruceMoose |
| US election megathread (n/t) on 19:09 - Oct 8 by tractordownsouth |
I'm in the middle of writing an article about why 2016 and 2020 are completelt different (and I say that as someone who predicted Trump to win last time), but here are the bullet points...
1) Hillary Clinton was historically unpopular — Joe Biden isn’t.
2) Trump now has to defend new swing states such as Arizona, Texas and Georgia. He’s likely to win the last 2 but he’ll still have to spend there to make sure. That’s on top of defending <1% majorities in the rustbelt.
3) The Trump campaign has no message — his slogan is Keep America Great but he’s still randomly tweeting MAGA every so often.
4) The ‘Joe Biden and the hard left will burn down the suburbs rhetoric’ isn’t going to wash as he was VP for 8 years and that wasn't even remotely close to happening
5) Covid has shown that hard right populists are utterly useless when they’re in government. Anything that can’t be solved with a slogan is too tough for them and they haven’t delivered on 2016 promises with regards to jobs in the rustbelt.
6) Trump is polarising many moderate Republicans. Presidents win second terms by bringing people together, but Trump has alienated people and not added to his electoral coalition to make up for it
7) Crucially, there’s a smaller pool of undecided voters — most people know where they stand on Trump and Biden. Last time, Trump won because most of this group plumped for him as the lesser of 2 evils on election day. For him to repeat his win, almost every single undecided voter will have to pick him, and even then that may not be enough. Look at the polling - Biden is regularly getting over 50%, whereas Clinton only did a couple of times. |
But her emails! | |
| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| US election megathread (n/t) on 19:50 - Oct 8 with 3828 views | Swansea_Blue |
| US election megathread (n/t) on 19:09 - Oct 8 by tractordownsouth |
I'm in the middle of writing an article about why 2016 and 2020 are completelt different (and I say that as someone who predicted Trump to win last time), but here are the bullet points...
1) Hillary Clinton was historically unpopular — Joe Biden isn’t.
2) Trump now has to defend new swing states such as Arizona, Texas and Georgia. He’s likely to win the last 2 but he’ll still have to spend there to make sure. That’s on top of defending <1% majorities in the rustbelt.
3) The Trump campaign has no message — his slogan is Keep America Great but he’s still randomly tweeting MAGA every so often.
4) The ‘Joe Biden and the hard left will burn down the suburbs rhetoric’ isn’t going to wash as he was VP for 8 years and that wasn't even remotely close to happening
5) Covid has shown that hard right populists are utterly useless when they’re in government. Anything that can’t be solved with a slogan is too tough for them and they haven’t delivered on 2016 promises with regards to jobs in the rustbelt.
6) Trump is polarising many moderate Republicans. Presidents win second terms by bringing people together, but Trump has alienated people and not added to his electoral coalition to make up for it
7) Crucially, there’s a smaller pool of undecided voters — most people know where they stand on Trump and Biden. Last time, Trump won because most of this group plumped for him as the lesser of 2 evils on election day. For him to repeat his win, almost every single undecided voter will have to pick him, and even then that may not be enough. Look at the polling - Biden is regularly getting over 50%, whereas Clinton only did a couple of times. |
Out of interest, why was Hillary unpopular? She's got links to the Uni down here, been over a few times and seems really pleasant, driven, passionate, value-led. She's also obviously intelligent, has got on in her field and is professional, business-like, etc. All the things that you'd think would be good characteristics in a leader.
I agree with a lot of the other points around Trump. Populism always seems to have a limited life span as it only grows through protest. Any period in power soon exposes the weaknesses and people turn away when the scales drop from their eyes. Well see it here, hopefully sooner rather than later (weaknesses are being exposed, but we can't do anything about it right now). |  |
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| US election megathread (n/t) on 20:19 - Oct 8 with 3815 views | SpruceMoose |
| US election megathread (n/t) on 19:50 - Oct 8 by Swansea_Blue |
Out of interest, why was Hillary unpopular? She's got links to the Uni down here, been over a few times and seems really pleasant, driven, passionate, value-led. She's also obviously intelligent, has got on in her field and is professional, business-like, etc. All the things that you'd think would be good characteristics in a leader.
I agree with a lot of the other points around Trump. Populism always seems to have a limited life span as it only grows through protest. Any period in power soon exposes the weaknesses and people turn away when the scales drop from their eyes. Well see it here, hopefully sooner rather than later (weaknesses are being exposed, but we can't do anything about it right now). |
1) She's a woman.
2) The media and GOP ran a really effective hit job on her, turning her into some kind of boogyman. The media would regularly label her shrill/nagging etc. (something which male politicians never get labelled)
3) She's been involved in a few scandals involving money and business, and is seen to be cosy with Wall Street, but honestly, show me an American politician who hasn't been.
All in all, she was held to standards a male candidate never would be. [Post edited 8 Oct 2020 20:21]
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| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| US election megathread on 21:09 - Oct 8 with 3780 views | SpruceMoose |
| US election megathread on 13:38 - Oct 8 by ElderGrizzly |
Trump has now said he won't debate Biden next week
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| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| US election megathread (n/t) on 21:29 - Oct 8 with 3766 views | flimflam |
| US election megathread (n/t) on 18:00 - Oct 8 by m14_blue |
You’ve really gone all in on this haven’t you?
You’re going to look pretty silly if you’re wrong and all the polling and other expert analysts are right. |
Story of my life so sure I'll get over it.
Sprucey is living it so obviously quite passionate about it all so I will refrain from pushing buttons next few weeks as not a good look.
Does not really affect me although plans are afoot to move out with my family in Florida at some point in the future. Getting a green card is not a problem. |  |
| All men and women are created, by the, you know the, you know the thing. |
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| US election megathread on 21:35 - Oct 8 with 3758 views | Oldsmoker |
Trump is not going to do a virtual debate.
Zoom is available on android phones apparently but it would look rubbish.
He'd have to operate a laptop.
<Press any key to continue>
Where's the "any" key? says Donald.
Big nod to Homer Simpson. |  |
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| US election megathread (n/t) on 21:43 - Oct 8 with 3745 views | m14_blue |
| US election megathread (n/t) on 21:29 - Oct 8 by flimflam |
Story of my life so sure I'll get over it.
Sprucey is living it so obviously quite passionate about it all so I will refrain from pushing buttons next few weeks as not a good look.
Does not really affect me although plans are afoot to move out with my family in Florida at some point in the future. Getting a green card is not a problem. |
Fair enough.
Sounds like an exciting move and I hope for your sake you won’t be living under Trump. | | | |
| US election megathread (n/t) on 21:57 - Oct 8 with 3736 views | SpruceMoose |
| US election megathread (n/t) on 21:29 - Oct 8 by flimflam |
Story of my life so sure I'll get over it.
Sprucey is living it so obviously quite passionate about it all so I will refrain from pushing buttons next few weeks as not a good look.
Does not really affect me although plans are afoot to move out with my family in Florida at some point in the future. Getting a green card is not a problem. |
Curious about your green card route. What's your eligibility? USCIS are so far behind where they should be with processing cases. You can add a good year and a half on top of their suggested processing times depending on your route. | |
| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| US election megathread (n/t) on 22:09 - Oct 8 with 3725 views | Swansea_Blue |
| US election megathread (n/t) on 20:19 - Oct 8 by SpruceMoose |
1) She's a woman.
2) The media and GOP ran a really effective hit job on her, turning her into some kind of boogyman. The media would regularly label her shrill/nagging etc. (something which male politicians never get labelled)
3) She's been involved in a few scandals involving money and business, and is seen to be cosy with Wall Street, but honestly, show me an American politician who hasn't been.
All in all, she was held to standards a male candidate never would be. [Post edited 8 Oct 2020 20:21]
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I guess they're not quite ready for a female President then. It all seems like a load of alpha male, chest thumping sh*te from what I've seen. I didn't follow the politics when I was over there as the Governor of Maine was an absolute a-hole. Seemed like all the worse bits of Republicanism rolled into one. Le Page I think his name was, or something like that. He put me off finding out more about how the states worked. I could never understand why a fairly liberal state voted him in in the first place. | |
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| US election megathread (n/t) on 22:39 - Oct 8 with 3700 views | Kropotkin123 |
| US election megathread (n/t) on 19:09 - Oct 8 by tractordownsouth |
I'm in the middle of writing an article about why 2016 and 2020 are completelt different (and I say that as someone who predicted Trump to win last time), but here are the bullet points...
1) Hillary Clinton was historically unpopular — Joe Biden isn’t.
2) Trump now has to defend new swing states such as Arizona, Texas and Georgia. He’s likely to win the last 2 but he’ll still have to spend there to make sure. That’s on top of defending <1% majorities in the rustbelt.
3) The Trump campaign has no message — his slogan is Keep America Great but he’s still randomly tweeting MAGA every so often.
4) The ‘Joe Biden and the hard left will burn down the suburbs rhetoric’ isn’t going to wash as he was VP for 8 years and that wasn't even remotely close to happening
5) Covid has shown that hard right populists are utterly useless when they’re in government. Anything that can’t be solved with a slogan is too tough for them and they haven’t delivered on 2016 promises with regards to jobs in the rustbelt.
6) Trump is polarising many moderate Republicans. Presidents win second terms by bringing people together, but Trump has alienated people and not added to his electoral coalition to make up for it
7) Crucially, there’s a smaller pool of undecided voters — most people know where they stand on Trump and Biden. Last time, Trump won because most of this group plumped for him as the lesser of 2 evils on election day. For him to repeat his win, almost every single undecided voter will have to pick him, and even then that may not be enough. Look at the polling - Biden is regularly getting over 50%, whereas Clinton only did a couple of times. |
8) Complaining from the outside is much easier than from the inside. You can make up stuff like building a wall will make America great again. But once you've served a term, it becomes harder to pull off the same outsider nonsense. This is particularly difficult when you got elected with over 2million less votes than your previous, unpopular rival, as you have a very small margin. |  |
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| US election megathread (n/t) on 22:51 - Oct 8 with 3684 views | Swansea_Blue |
| US election megathread (n/t) on 22:39 - Oct 8 by Kropotkin123 |
8) Complaining from the outside is much easier than from the inside. You can make up stuff like building a wall will make America great again. But once you've served a term, it becomes harder to pull off the same outsider nonsense. This is particularly difficult when you got elected with over 2million less votes than your previous, unpopular rival, as you have a very small margin. |
Populism is built on having an enemy. When time reveals that the enemy isn't actually an enemy there's not a lot else left to fall back on. It's the same here with the main enemies (1) the EU and (2) forriners. Serving a term having to lead is really highlighting the weaknesses of the Trump and Johnson administrations. | |
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| US election megathread on 23:32 - Oct 8 with 3664 views | monytowbray |
Oh Trumpy Trump, never go on Twitter when you’re drugged off your face... by monytowbray 8 Oct 2020 23:32Well, more drugged than normal anyway.
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/jasonleopold/buzzfeed-news-court-russia-investigation
Ha.
Also, remember Buzzfeed when it was articles made of GIFs? Now they do better investigative anti-establishment journalism than the BBC.
2020, hook it to my veins maaaan. It’s terrifyingly entertaining.
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| US election megathread on 23:45 - Oct 8 with 3656 views | flimflam |
| US election megathread on 14:13 - Oct 8 by SpruceMoose |
Not sure if you saw my post earlier, I asked you why and how you thought Pence won the debate? It was the fly, wasn't it? |
When Harris tries to rewrite history with blatant lies to fit her agenda then she has lost.
Claiming that Vice President Mike Pence and the Republicans are violating a precedent set by President Abraham Lincoln by confirming a Supreme Court Justice just before an election when the opposite is actually true.
The Senate was out of session and was filled the day it opened again.
She was either telling porkies or her researcher needs firing. | |
| All men and women are created, by the, you know the, you know the thing. |
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| US election megathread (n/t) on 23:45 - Oct 8 with 3655 views | Bent_double |
| US election megathread (n/t) on 22:09 - Oct 8 by Swansea_Blue |
I guess they're not quite ready for a female President then. It all seems like a load of alpha male, chest thumping sh*te from what I've seen. I didn't follow the politics when I was over there as the Governor of Maine was an absolute a-hole. Seemed like all the worse bits of Republicanism rolled into one. Le Page I think his name was, or something like that. He put me off finding out more about how the states worked. I could never understand why a fairly liberal state voted him in in the first place. |
This is the one thing that still worries me: will undecided voters look at an ageing Biden and wonder how long it will be before Harris takes over as President?
I don't know much about Pence, and by all accounts he's no better than Trump, but at least he looks the part - which might be enough for certain types of people. |  |
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| US election megathread on 01:21 - Oct 9 with 3625 views | SpruceMoose |
| US election megathread on 23:45 - Oct 8 by flimflam |
When Harris tries to rewrite history with blatant lies to fit her agenda then she has lost.
Claiming that Vice President Mike Pence and the Republicans are violating a precedent set by President Abraham Lincoln by confirming a Supreme Court Justice just before an election when the opposite is actually true.
The Senate was out of session and was filled the day it opened again.
She was either telling porkies or her researcher needs firing. |
Of all the lies flying around, not only on the stage last night but the lies that have been spewing out of government mouths for the last four years, THAT was the one that upset you?!
Jeez. [Post edited 9 Oct 2020 1:32]
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| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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