| US election megathread 03:24 - Sep 23 with 138251 views | SpruceMoose |
Seeing as we are approaching the presidential debates, and with the actual election being only 42 days away, maybe we could keep this as a US election megathread for those on here who are interested? One location for all the discussion would prevent multiple threads clogging up the board for those who don't care to get involved?
Personally, the reality of having to experience this election in the near future is stressful AF so if anyone else wants to get stressed together... Jump on board.
Now, insert all the usual caveats about polling here but...it's looking positive that we will be rid of Trump come 2021, much to the disappointment of a couple of posters on here. 538 are well respected in the field of poll analysis so what they announce should be taken seriously.
Of course their analysis doesn't take account of any election fraud, Russian interference, voter suppression etc. But it's positive news none the less. Once Trump is gone, we can work on Johnson. Decent people of the world... Unite!
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/ [Post edited 23 Sep 2020 3:32]
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| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| US election megathread on 13:10 - Sep 23 with 3779 views | SpruceMoose |
| US election megathread on 13:09 - Sep 23 by J2BLUE |
Meh I don't think he'll be replaced but it was worth a shot. |
Is there a market for whether Cuomo has pierced nipples or not?
https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/8843w4/we-asked-professional-piercers-if-cuom | |
| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| US election megathread on 13:46 - Sep 23 with 3736 views | ElderGrizzly |
| US election megathread on 12:48 - Sep 23 by J2BLUE |
I've read theories where Biden is going to get destroyed in the debates and then he will be replaced with someone else. I can't see it but i've had a few small bets.
£1 Clinton @ 359/1
£5 Cuomo @ 999/1
£1 Warren @ 999/1
£1 Sanders @ 999/1
£1 Bloomberg @ 999/1
I love an American presidential election. I hope we're all going to bundle in the chat room again like last time. |
I can't see Biden being destroyed by Trump in a debating 'match', especially one that is time controlled by a moderator.
Trump can talk more than Biden, but he won't answer a single question asked. |  | | |
| US election megathread on 13:51 - Sep 23 with 3732 views | ElderGrizzly |
| US election megathread on 05:49 - Sep 23 by ElderGrizzly |
This is nice to see too. Expect a Trump whinge soon about John McCain
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Too predictable
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| US election megathread on 13:58 - Sep 23 with 3743 views | SpruceMoose |
| US election megathread on 13:46 - Sep 23 by ElderGrizzly |
I can't see Biden being destroyed by Trump in a debating 'match', especially one that is time controlled by a moderator.
Trump can talk more than Biden, but he won't answer a single question asked. |
Exactly. No doubt he will impress the people who would already walk over sh!t covered glass to vote for him, but he needs to convince people away from the 'not going to vote' or 'voting for Biden' camps.
Biden has a great opportunity to remind people what it looks like to have a calm thoughtful leader. Trump will try to drag him down into the mud. He needs to resist. Biden has good debate pedigree. He pretty much single handed destroyed Paul Ryan's entire political philosophy in one debate back in 2012.
Personally, if anyone is going to be getting destroyed in a debate this time round it's going to be Pence. | |
| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| US election megathread on 14:05 - Sep 23 with 3732 views | monytowbray |
| US election megathread on 13:51 - Sep 23 by ElderGrizzly |
Too predictable
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The deep reality is the USA has had the choice of UKIP or Conservatives for the last few decades. No Democrat has really done anything "radically left" in a long time.
Not much different this time with the exception of the fact the UKIP party are now basically the closest thing the West has seen to the actual Nazis since WWII and Biden appears to be at least considering some actual left wing ideas.
Until we get oligarchs out of politics globally, actually stop oppressive regimes from being oppressive (hello CCP!) I can't see politics getting better in serving the everyday population, just another slightly less aggressive version of capitalism that still allows billionaires to run riot. |  |
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| US election megathread on 14:09 - Sep 23 with 3725 views | HARRY10 |
| US election megathread on 12:19 - Sep 23 by giant_stow |
If they don't want to spark a civil war, perhaps its best to charge him with nothing and let him shuffle off somewhere (Scotland?) in return for keeping his mouth shut. |
Allowing him to avoid any legal accountability will cause far more harm long term.
Only through a thorough root and branch investigation, and trial where necessary, will a stake be put through the rotten heart of Trump and those around him.
Otherwise it will be a 'stab in the back' cry from those who want a rallying point to continue a white separatist agenda. |  | | |
| US election megathread on 14:20 - Sep 23 with 3715 views | StokieBlue |
If you read the methodology page I posted it shows how they have changed the model since 2016 to take into account a lot of new factors including C19.
Doesn't mean they are right of course but it does mean you can't say they are wrong as they were wrong in 2016.
SB |  |
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| US election megathread on 14:26 - Sep 23 with 3704 views | SpruceMoose |
Good one Trekkie.
Nobody is getting excited. It's just people with an interest and some insight into US politics discussing the current modelling and their possible future permutations.
Maybe I should have set up a Basic Level US Politics MAGAthread for all the people who inevitably want to just steam in with their juvenile 'hurdee hur hur but Hillary' 'insights. | |
| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| US election megathread on 14:40 - Sep 23 with 3677 views | J2BLUE |
| US election megathread on 13:58 - Sep 23 by SpruceMoose |
Exactly. No doubt he will impress the people who would already walk over sh!t covered glass to vote for him, but he needs to convince people away from the 'not going to vote' or 'voting for Biden' camps.
Biden has a great opportunity to remind people what it looks like to have a calm thoughtful leader. Trump will try to drag him down into the mud. He needs to resist. Biden has good debate pedigree. He pretty much single handed destroyed Paul Ryan's entire political philosophy in one debate back in 2012.
Personally, if anyone is going to be getting destroyed in a debate this time round it's going to be Pence. |
I don't think anyone was question Biden's ability but there was a bit of speculation about his health/age.
Obviously I hope he's fine. I think he would be a decent option. |  |
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| US election megathread on 14:50 - Sep 23 with 3664 views | SpruceMoose |
| US election megathread on 14:40 - Sep 23 by J2BLUE |
I don't think anyone was question Biden's ability but there was a bit of speculation about his health/age.
Obviously I hope he's fine. I think he would be a decent option. |
I agree that it's a problem that we have elderly white/orange men running for election yet again. Biden, to me at least, represents a return to the sane predictable, non-malicious way of government. Which isn't at all exciting as someone who would like to see the US pursue a much more progressive agenda. But, 200,000 dead and a country feeling like its falling apart right now makes me think we have to settle for that now, steady the ship before planning a new direction.
Is Biden as sharp as when he was younger? Of course not. That's why who he surrounds himself with, and who he listens to will be important and that's an area where Progressives will have to push to get their agenda looked at.
But having watched Biden in his recent town halls, he is nowhere near Trump's level of utterly bizarre word salad every time he talks. He talks in complete sentences, that have a beginning, middle and an end, and contain a fully formed concept at the heart of each one.
This whole 'oooh has Biden got dementia?!' business was started by Trump, and as we know he's king of projection so...
Biden also has a stutter that he's had to overcome. I think it still impacts him too. [Post edited 23 Sep 2020 14:54]
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| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| US election megathread on 14:51 - Sep 23 with 3660 views | jaseitfc2015 |
| US election megathread on 12:48 - Sep 23 by J2BLUE |
I've read theories where Biden is going to get destroyed in the debates and then he will be replaced with someone else. I can't see it but i've had a few small bets.
£1 Clinton @ 359/1
£5 Cuomo @ 999/1
£1 Warren @ 999/1
£1 Sanders @ 999/1
£1 Bloomberg @ 999/1
I love an American presidential election. I hope we're all going to bundle in the chat room again like last time. |
Surely if anyone is going to replace him it'd be Harris ? | | | |
| US election megathread on 14:56 - Sep 23 with 3652 views | SpruceMoose |
| US election megathread on 14:51 - Sep 23 by jaseitfc2015 |
Surely if anyone is going to replace him it'd be Harris ? |
Hopefully in 2024! We can then have AOC in for 2032 and 2036, and then the world will end because climate change. But at least we will go out on a high!
Oh and somewhere in their they'll whack Michelle and Barack Obama on the Supreme Court too, just to drive the GOP insane!
We can dream... | |
| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| US election megathread on 14:59 - Sep 23 with 3643 views | monytowbray |
| US election megathread on 14:40 - Sep 23 by J2BLUE |
I don't think anyone was question Biden's ability but there was a bit of speculation about his health/age.
Obviously I hope he's fine. I think he would be a decent option. |
It amazes me anyone who says Biden ain't got the mentality because of age isn't looking at Trump, who is suspected to have had a stroke in his time as president and has an ongoing lifetime habit of uppers/downers going into his nose holes. | |
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| US election megathread on 15:04 - Sep 23 with 3632 views | SpruceMoose |
| US election megathread on 14:59 - Sep 23 by monytowbray |
It amazes me anyone who says Biden ain't got the mentality because of age isn't looking at Trump, who is suspected to have had a stroke in his time as president and has an ongoing lifetime habit of uppers/downers going into his nose holes. |
It's pure projection coming out of the Right isn't it?
The enemy is both weak and strong. Biden is both a bumbling comatose zombie and a far left firebrand seeking to destroy the country.
It's pretty clear that whatever they say about Biden exposes Trump's own fears about how he is viewed. [Post edited 23 Sep 2020 15:09]
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| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| US election megathread on 15:17 - Sep 23 with 3606 views | monytowbray |
| US election megathread on 15:04 - Sep 23 by SpruceMoose |
It's pure projection coming out of the Right isn't it?
The enemy is both weak and strong. Biden is both a bumbling comatose zombie and a far left firebrand seeking to destroy the country.
It's pretty clear that whatever they say about Biden exposes Trump's own fears about how he is viewed. [Post edited 23 Sep 2020 15:09]
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I think anything that comes out of Trump's mouth accusation wise is deflection at this point. In fact the reason he even invented such accusations is because it's exactly what he's up to.
I saw someone else who has been close to Trump in his presidency say he is unable to comprehend anything other than transactional interactions. If he does anything "what's in it for me" is always at the front of his mind, be it because he's getting something or he's planning on screwing someone over to get it.
That and evidently he thinks the odd titbit of good things he does (few and far between) should be celebrated so much by the MSM it should mean they ignore the steaming pile of sh1ts he's done throughout his lifetime. | |
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| US election megathread on 15:22 - Sep 23 with 3600 views | itfcjoe |
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| US election megathread on 15:41 - Sep 23 with 3566 views | Mookamoo |
| US election megathread on 14:56 - Sep 23 by SpruceMoose |
Hopefully in 2024! We can then have AOC in for 2032 and 2036, and then the world will end because climate change. But at least we will go out on a high!
Oh and somewhere in their they'll whack Michelle and Barack Obama on the Supreme Court too, just to drive the GOP insane!
We can dream... |
President Tucker Carlson will have different ideas in 2032. We'll be looking back fondly of the halcyon days of Trump. |  | | |
| US election megathread on 15:45 - Sep 23 with 3557 views | SpruceMoose |
| US election megathread on 15:22 - Sep 23 by itfcjoe |
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That Fox strap line... Jesus. How on earth are the radical left (who have absolutely no political power in the US) responsible for the state of the country? Who has been in charge for the last four years? Who has been golfing while 200,000 avoidable deaths have occurred? To that strap line I would ask, what security? Because I feel in peril every damn day now.
Trump's reelection pitch is basically the Shaggy defense. 'Look, you've caught me red handed... but it wasn't me'.
He had the crowd booing Somali-born US citizens in Wisconsin the other night too. Even if they weren't citizens, to whip up such hatred is sincerely awful.
2021 and his lunatic cult members are a genuine cause for concern. | |
| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| US election megathread on 16:18 - Sep 23 with 3526 views | yorkshire |
Next few weeks are going to be a nightmare out here - the Trump administration knows that they are behind in the polls and that only something drastic is going to change that - they will ramp up the whole law and order thing to try and scare mid class white people to give them their vote - at the same time they are pitching the same thing to the Latino's in certain states that they too are in danger
I live in Florida and although I still think it will vote Trump in the end, I did appreciate what Bloomberg did just as a matter of decency. I am still confident that other swing states including PA and WI will vote for Biden - and I think AZ will do as well
With a massive rise in postal/absentee voting then the election night results may look more favorably towards Trump than the end results - if this is the case then you can bet he will be peddling all sorts of stories about voter fraud and rigged elections. The Senate led by Mitch McConnell knows he is their 'useless idiot' but don't have any other option but to back him - and whatever he manages to do with the Supreme Court, they too will find in his favour
For me, the one good thing I have seen is that the military doesn't seem to be on his side - his attacks on McCain, Matthis and Kelly do alienate him - especially from the top brass who will call the shots. | | | |
| US election megathread on 16:44 - Sep 23 with 3495 views | MonkeyAlan |
It's all eggs, bacon, beans and a fried slice. |  | | |
| US election megathread on 16:53 - Sep 23 with 3490 views | ElderGrizzly |
| US election megathread on 16:18 - Sep 23 by yorkshire |
Next few weeks are going to be a nightmare out here - the Trump administration knows that they are behind in the polls and that only something drastic is going to change that - they will ramp up the whole law and order thing to try and scare mid class white people to give them their vote - at the same time they are pitching the same thing to the Latino's in certain states that they too are in danger
I live in Florida and although I still think it will vote Trump in the end, I did appreciate what Bloomberg did just as a matter of decency. I am still confident that other swing states including PA and WI will vote for Biden - and I think AZ will do as well
With a massive rise in postal/absentee voting then the election night results may look more favorably towards Trump than the end results - if this is the case then you can bet he will be peddling all sorts of stories about voter fraud and rigged elections. The Senate led by Mitch McConnell knows he is their 'useless idiot' but don't have any other option but to back him - and whatever he manages to do with the Supreme Court, they too will find in his favour
For me, the one good thing I have seen is that the military doesn't seem to be on his side - his attacks on McCain, Matthis and Kelly do alienate him - especially from the top brass who will call the shots. |
The hope is early counting of the majority of the postal votes will mean it is difficult for Trump to claim 'victory' on the night.
You can damn well bet he is going to try though and whip his base up to protest the stealing of the election in his eyes | | | |
| US election megathread on 17:01 - Sep 23 with 3492 views | tractordownsouth |
Way more undecided voters in 2016 than there are this year. 538 pointed out in their podcast that generally their candidates with a 30% chance do win 30% of the time. Trump is going to need all of the undecideds to swing for him again, and there aren't as many of them.
It's far from over, but he's got a really really limited path to victory and hasn't built on his electoral coalition at all |  |
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| US election megathread on 17:20 - Sep 23 with 3472 views | Tangledupin_Blue |
| US election megathread on 12:48 - Sep 23 by J2BLUE |
I've read theories where Biden is going to get destroyed in the debates and then he will be replaced with someone else. I can't see it but i've had a few small bets.
£1 Clinton @ 359/1
£5 Cuomo @ 999/1
£1 Warren @ 999/1
£1 Sanders @ 999/1
£1 Bloomberg @ 999/1
I love an American presidential election. I hope we're all going to bundle in the chat room again like last time. |
Months ago I booked time off work so as to tune in all night. |  |
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| US election megathread on 17:33 - Sep 23 with 3462 views | HARRY10 |
| US election megathread on 17:20 - Sep 23 by Tangledupin_Blue |
Months ago I booked time off work so as to tune in all night. |
In 2016 many voted against Clinton, rather than for Trump.
The polls have not changed much over the past six months - except in a number of swing states that Trump has to hold to stand a chance.... they are slowly moving away from him
The site below is a good reference to see how it is going and to have a jig around with the numbers
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/electoral-college-interactive-maps
At this stage Biden has won, even if you only count his 'certs' and 'most likely'states
Trump has a far lower number of those two categories - and needs to hold those, win all the marginals.... then begin to eat into Biden states | | | |
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