| US election megathread 03:24 - Sep 23 with 137942 views | SpruceMoose |
Seeing as we are approaching the presidential debates, and with the actual election being only 42 days away, maybe we could keep this as a US election megathread for those on here who are interested? One location for all the discussion would prevent multiple threads clogging up the board for those who don't care to get involved?
Personally, the reality of having to experience this election in the near future is stressful AF so if anyone else wants to get stressed together... Jump on board.
Now, insert all the usual caveats about polling here but...it's looking positive that we will be rid of Trump come 2021, much to the disappointment of a couple of posters on here. 538 are well respected in the field of poll analysis so what they announce should be taken seriously.
Of course their analysis doesn't take account of any election fraud, Russian interference, voter suppression etc. But it's positive news none the less. Once Trump is gone, we can work on Johnson. Decent people of the world... Unite!
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/ [Post edited 23 Sep 2020 3:32]
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| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| US election megathread on 12:17 - Sep 24 with 4190 views | J2BLUE |
| US election megathread on 17:20 - Sep 23 by Tangledupin_Blue |
Months ago I booked time off work so as to tune in all night. |
Good man. |  |
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| US election megathread on 12:22 - Sep 24 with 4182 views | SpruceMoose |
This is the game plan. If he loses it won't be a case of him just refusing to leave the WH and Biden having to send the military in to remove him. He will use the courts, and friendly Republican state governors to muddy the waters, to delegitimise the result and run this all the way up to the Supreme Court. That's why RDG passing is such a gift for them.
Trump can't afford to lose. Not because he cares about being president, but because he and his family are in serious legal jeopardy without the protection of that office. | |
| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| US election megathread on 12:42 - Sep 24 with 4153 views | thecheek |
The betting for what it's worth suggest it will be very close with Biden currently at 4/5 and Trump 5/4
Betfair's market makes for interesting reading having already matched a staggering £91M
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/politics-betting-2378961
The fact that Trump's price is as short as it is probably reflects the fact that the bookies/pollsters got the last US Election/Brexit so wrong. It's actually shortened over the past few weeks which I'd struggle to explain? |  | | |
| US election megathread on 14:02 - Sep 24 with 4112 views | CaptainAhab |
| US election megathread on 12:42 - Sep 24 by thecheek |
The betting for what it's worth suggest it will be very close with Biden currently at 4/5 and Trump 5/4
Betfair's market makes for interesting reading having already matched a staggering £91M
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/politics-betting-2378961
The fact that Trump's price is as short as it is probably reflects the fact that the bookies/pollsters got the last US Election/Brexit so wrong. It's actually shortened over the past few weeks which I'd struggle to explain? |
Surely the odds have shortened because punters are lumping on Trump?
Doesn't necessarily have anything to do with his actual chances of winning increasing.
I must admit I thought of doing it last time in a, well if the worst happens at least I'll be a few hundred quid richer kinda way. The wife wouldn't let me...
If the odds were a bit better I'd probably be thinking of doing it again now. |  | | |
| US election megathread on 15:46 - Sep 24 with 4073 views | Mookamoo |
| US election megathread on 14:02 - Sep 24 by CaptainAhab |
Surely the odds have shortened because punters are lumping on Trump?
Doesn't necessarily have anything to do with his actual chances of winning increasing.
I must admit I thought of doing it last time in a, well if the worst happens at least I'll be a few hundred quid richer kinda way. The wife wouldn't let me...
If the odds were a bit better I'd probably be thinking of doing it again now. |
I know ours isn't much better but it shows how messed up their electoral system is when the Democrats are 1/5 to win the popular vote but Biden is only 4/5 to win the presidency.
The Trump/Biden prices are good indication of what people will actually do when in the polling stations. Theres lots of talk of Republicans deserting, but when it actually comes down to it they will vote for him. |  | | |
| US election megathread on 16:10 - Sep 24 with 4058 views | The_Romford_Blue |
| US election megathread on 12:42 - Sep 24 by thecheek |
The betting for what it's worth suggest it will be very close with Biden currently at 4/5 and Trump 5/4
Betfair's market makes for interesting reading having already matched a staggering £91M
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/politics-betting-2378961
The fact that Trump's price is as short as it is probably reflects the fact that the bookies/pollsters got the last US Election/Brexit so wrong. It's actually shortened over the past few weeks which I'd struggle to explain? |
A pal of mine is into political betting and convinced a few of us to back trump a few months ago when he was 7/4. He made plenty of great arguments and whether I agreed or not that trump will win, it was impossible to argue that 7/4 wasn’t cracking value. Only have £50 on mind so I’d still prefer to see Biden in ahead of the racist. |  |
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| US election megathread on 16:20 - Sep 24 with 4051 views | SpruceMoose |
| US election megathread on 16:10 - Sep 24 by The_Romford_Blue |
A pal of mine is into political betting and convinced a few of us to back trump a few months ago when he was 7/4. He made plenty of great arguments and whether I agreed or not that trump will win, it was impossible to argue that 7/4 wasn’t cracking value. Only have £50 on mind so I’d still prefer to see Biden in ahead of the racist. |
Ouch.
Am I the only one to find it rather distasteful to have an entertaining bet on the reelection of a man responsible for 200,000 deaths, election fraud, God knows how many sexual assaults, the demonisation of immigrants leading to the deaths of them and their children, and... I could go on but I won't as everybody knows he's a monster.
Maybe I'm overly sensitive as I actually live here and will be directly impacted by the election result but it seems rather distasteful to bet on this outcome. | |
| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| US election megathread on 17:00 - Sep 24 with 4032 views | flimflam |
I'll come pay this thread a visit on the 4th November. |  |
| All men and women are created, by the, you know the, you know the thing. |
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| US election megathread on 17:07 - Sep 24 with 4029 views | SpruceMoose |
| US election megathread on 17:00 - Sep 24 by flimflam |
I'll come pay this thread a visit on the 4th November. |
What is it about the sex offending, thin skinned, racist, homophobic, Islamophobic, fraudulent shîtebag that you identify with so much Flimflam? Shared life experiences? | |
| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| US election megathread on 17:15 - Sep 24 with 4022 views | TRUE_BLUE123 |
If I was American I would vote for Biden. That being said, they are both crap options. The Democrat Nominee should have been Andrew Yang, he’s pragmatic, Smart and liked on all sides. He would’ve walked it.
Biden and Harris crap
Pence and Trump crap. |  |
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| US election megathread on 17:21 - Sep 24 with 4018 views | SpruceMoose |
| US election megathread on 17:15 - Sep 24 by TRUE_BLUE123 |
If I was American I would vote for Biden. That being said, they are both crap options. The Democrat Nominee should have been Andrew Yang, he’s pragmatic, Smart and liked on all sides. He would’ve walked it.
Biden and Harris crap
Pence and Trump crap. |
That's not the impression I have of Yang. Rightly or wrongly America isn't going to elect someone with his UBI policies. He brought up some valid points for discussion but he ran out of steam pretty early on. If Democrats wouldn't vote for him, what hope of 'moderate' Republicans and undecideds doing so?
Biden/Harris may be crap but Trump/Pence are criminal, corrupt, callous and dangerous. There's no comparison between the two.
I do think he talks a lot of sense when he warns about the job collapse that will follow greater levels of automation and needing to restructure how people spend their time and provide for their own needs. I wouldn't mind seeing him with a role in a future Biden administration.
There was talk about him potentially running for mayor if NYC at one point too. That would be interesting. [Post edited 24 Sep 2020 17:23]
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| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| US election megathread on 17:32 - Sep 24 with 4002 views | TRUE_BLUE123 |
| US election megathread on 17:21 - Sep 24 by SpruceMoose |
That's not the impression I have of Yang. Rightly or wrongly America isn't going to elect someone with his UBI policies. He brought up some valid points for discussion but he ran out of steam pretty early on. If Democrats wouldn't vote for him, what hope of 'moderate' Republicans and undecideds doing so?
Biden/Harris may be crap but Trump/Pence are criminal, corrupt, callous and dangerous. There's no comparison between the two.
I do think he talks a lot of sense when he warns about the job collapse that will follow greater levels of automation and needing to restructure how people spend their time and provide for their own needs. I wouldn't mind seeing him with a role in a future Biden administration.
There was talk about him potentially running for mayor if NYC at one point too. That would be interesting. [Post edited 24 Sep 2020 17:23]
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You may well be right, my knowledge is well short if yours I imagine, from what I've seen and read. Yang has seemed to be fairly popular from both sides.
And of course when I say both are crap, Trump/Pence are far far more crap and I despise them.
Seeing as you seem to know your stuff, why on earth do Americans think Bernie is a socialist, isn't he politically closer to Blair, if he was in this country. Also found that baffling. | |
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| US election megathread on 17:33 - Sep 24 with 3999 views | J2BLUE |
| US election megathread on 16:20 - Sep 24 by SpruceMoose |
Ouch.
Am I the only one to find it rather distasteful to have an entertaining bet on the reelection of a man responsible for 200,000 deaths, election fraud, God knows how many sexual assaults, the demonisation of immigrants leading to the deaths of them and their children, and... I could go on but I won't as everybody knows he's a monster.
Maybe I'm overly sensitive as I actually live here and will be directly impacted by the election result but it seems rather distasteful to bet on this outcome. |
I understand your point but I don't really agree. Rommers isn't hoping Trump wins. If he's going to win, he's going to win regardless of people making a bit of money off it. As for my bets they'll be irrelevant by the time election day gets here.
Personally I find that if I win a bet I consider unethical I try and find a way to make it right. For example if a horse wins in a race where another falls I feel the money is tainted. I often use a little bit of what I win to do something good. | |
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| US election megathread on 17:36 - Sep 24 with 3993 views | SpruceMoose |
| US election megathread on 17:33 - Sep 24 by J2BLUE |
I understand your point but I don't really agree. Rommers isn't hoping Trump wins. If he's going to win, he's going to win regardless of people making a bit of money off it. As for my bets they'll be irrelevant by the time election day gets here.
Personally I find that if I win a bet I consider unethical I try and find a way to make it right. For example if a horse wins in a race where another falls I feel the money is tainted. I often use a little bit of what I win to do something good. |
Is there a line for you on things you wouldn't bet on though? I think that's what I'm getting at, perhaps I didn't explain properly.
Would you have bet on whether Johnson survived Covid? Would you bet on a refugee raft making it ashore or not? I'm just saying that for many people, betting on Trump bring reelected would feel very similar to those scenarios. It really will be life or death for some. | |
| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| US election megathread on 17:40 - Sep 24 with 3980 views | SpruceMoose |
| US election megathread on 17:32 - Sep 24 by TRUE_BLUE123 |
You may well be right, my knowledge is well short if yours I imagine, from what I've seen and read. Yang has seemed to be fairly popular from both sides.
And of course when I say both are crap, Trump/Pence are far far more crap and I despise them.
Seeing as you seem to know your stuff, why on earth do Americans think Bernie is a socialist, isn't he politically closer to Blair, if he was in this country. Also found that baffling. |
I think Americans still have that Red Under The Bed paranoia. It's still a part of their psychology. They only hear the socialist part of Democratic Socialist and of course the Right have done all they can to encourage this perception among the working classes and to vote against their best interests.
If you're interested in US politics from a leftist angle then the Pod Save America podcasts are a good a place as any to keep up with developments. Yang was on their podcast during the Democratic nomination period. I found him down to earth, likeable and interesting. | |
| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| US election megathread on 17:43 - Sep 24 with 3973 views | J2BLUE |
| US election megathread on 17:36 - Sep 24 by SpruceMoose |
Is there a line for you on things you wouldn't bet on though? I think that's what I'm getting at, perhaps I didn't explain properly.
Would you have bet on whether Johnson survived Covid? Would you bet on a refugee raft making it ashore or not? I'm just saying that for many people, betting on Trump bring reelected would feel very similar to those scenarios. It really will be life or death for some. |
There is definitely a line. I wouldn't bet on either of those things. Perhaps it's just because it's under the politics umbrella and I haven't considered it as deeply as you have. | |
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| US election megathread on 18:05 - Sep 24 with 3962 views | TRUE_BLUE123 |
| US election megathread on 17:40 - Sep 24 by SpruceMoose |
I think Americans still have that Red Under The Bed paranoia. It's still a part of their psychology. They only hear the socialist part of Democratic Socialist and of course the Right have done all they can to encourage this perception among the working classes and to vote against their best interests.
If you're interested in US politics from a leftist angle then the Pod Save America podcasts are a good a place as any to keep up with developments. Yang was on their podcast during the Democratic nomination period. I found him down to earth, likeable and interesting. |
Will certainly give that a listen, cheers | |
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| US election megathread on 18:09 - Sep 24 with 3959 views | SpruceMoose |
| US election megathread on 17:43 - Sep 24 by J2BLUE |
There is definitely a line. I wouldn't bet on either of those things. Perhaps it's just because it's under the politics umbrella and I haven't considered it as deeply as you have. |
That's fair enough. Like I said, I might be being more sensitive than most | |
| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| US election megathread on 19:22 - Sep 24 with 3929 views | thecheek |
| US election megathread on 14:02 - Sep 24 by CaptainAhab |
Surely the odds have shortened because punters are lumping on Trump?
Doesn't necessarily have anything to do with his actual chances of winning increasing.
I must admit I thought of doing it last time in a, well if the worst happens at least I'll be a few hundred quid richer kinda way. The wife wouldn't let me...
If the odds were a bit better I'd probably be thinking of doing it again now. |
Yep weight of money would have brought the price down but the question is what would have triggered that? | | | |
| US election megathread on 19:40 - Sep 24 with 3912 views | itfcjoe |
| US election megathread on 17:32 - Sep 24 by TRUE_BLUE123 |
You may well be right, my knowledge is well short if yours I imagine, from what I've seen and read. Yang has seemed to be fairly popular from both sides.
And of course when I say both are crap, Trump/Pence are far far more crap and I despise them.
Seeing as you seem to know your stuff, why on earth do Americans think Bernie is a socialist, isn't he politically closer to Blair, if he was in this country. Also found that baffling. |
Because lots of American's think if you identify with any single Democrat policy then you are a socialist.
If you think using of fossil fuels is not what God would have wanted and leads to climate change then you are a socialist.
If you think that people shouldn't be able to walk round with assault rifles then you are a socialist
If you think that a rape victim should be able to have an abortion legally then you are a socialist |  |
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| US election megathread on 19:40 - Sep 24 with 3912 views | flimflam |
| US election megathread on 17:07 - Sep 24 by SpruceMoose |
What is it about the sex offending, thin skinned, racist, homophobic, Islamophobic, fraudulent shîtebag that you identify with so much Flimflam? Shared life experiences? |
Now thats not a very nice thing to say now is it.
But I do have hairy legs so can I join the club? | |
| All men and women are created, by the, you know the, you know the thing. |
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| US election megathread on 20:12 - Sep 24 with 3885 views | SpruceMoose |
| US election megathread on 19:40 - Sep 24 by flimflam |
Now thats not a very nice thing to say now is it.
But I do have hairy legs so can I join the club? |
It was a serious question. You've seemed very excited about Trump winning or some time now. | |
| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| US election megathread on 20:15 - Sep 24 with 3880 views | The_Romford_Blue |
| US election megathread on 17:36 - Sep 24 by SpruceMoose |
Is there a line for you on things you wouldn't bet on though? I think that's what I'm getting at, perhaps I didn't explain properly.
Would you have bet on whether Johnson survived Covid? Would you bet on a refugee raft making it ashore or not? I'm just saying that for many people, betting on Trump bring reelected would feel very similar to those scenarios. It really will be life or death for some. |
I know your question was for J2 but I’d also say that I wouldn’t bet on those two things.
The bloke who convinced me that it was value is actually a pro gambler on NFL and (to a lesser extent politics) so I do value his opinion. I’ve ignored him for years on political bets because I don’t know the difference. However he did make a fair argument that it was a good idea at 7/4. He had it 11/10 at that point and now has him as the most likely winner (think he said 4/5 fav the other day).
Whether he wins or not isn’t going to change from my bet. And I can’t even vote in it. I’ll hope Biden wins. And if he doesn’t, well at least I’ll have £137.50 back. Actually I won’t because it’s doubled with a horse at Cheltenham next year but you see my point.
I’ll be here on election night hoping Biden gets in and the world returns to normality a little bit more... J2 May remember the last election four years ago.. the ChatRoom7  | |
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| US election megathread on 20:36 - Sep 24 with 3855 views | flimflam |
| US election megathread on 20:12 - Sep 24 by SpruceMoose |
It was a serious question. You've seemed very excited about Trump winning or some time now. |
Not excited just interested seeing as it will affect my mum, 3 sisters and a brother who are all American and live in the USA. I opted to stay in Blighty. | |
| All men and women are created, by the, you know the, you know the thing. |
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