| US election megathread 03:24 - Sep 23 with 162934 views | SpruceMoose |
Seeing as we are approaching the presidential debates, and with the actual election being only 42 days away, maybe we could keep this as a US election megathread for those on here who are interested? One location for all the discussion would prevent multiple threads clogging up the board for those who don't care to get involved?
Personally, the reality of having to experience this election in the near future is stressful AF so if anyone else wants to get stressed together... Jump on board.
Now, insert all the usual caveats about polling here but...it's looking positive that we will be rid of Trump come 2021, much to the disappointment of a couple of posters on here. 538 are well respected in the field of poll analysis so what they announce should be taken seriously.
Of course their analysis doesn't take account of any election fraud, Russian interference, voter suppression etc. But it's positive news none the less. Once Trump is gone, we can work on Johnson. Decent people of the world... Unite!
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/ [Post edited 23 Sep 2020 3:32]
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| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| US election megathread on 19:13 - Oct 28 with 1693 views | bluelagos |
| US election megathread on 19:07 - Oct 28 by SpruceMoose |
Well, to be fair, other than knuckleheaded conspiracy theories there aren't any negative Biden stories to report. Whereas there are more Trump negative stories than you can shake a stick at! |
I meant more as in the polling. They pick up and report the polls that indicate Biden is doing well.
E.g. i stumbled on a tweet earlier showing a reducing gap (Trump closing the gap) for the votes already made in a state (Florida or Georgia, cant recall) which sounded like it meant a Trump state win was looking probable.
No sign of that poll in the Guardian feeds though.
So my point is that as I have a left wing source of polling (and news) am I getting a fair representation of what is happening? Cos they got it wrong 4 years ago... |  |
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| US election megathread on 19:19 - Oct 28 with 1682 views | eireblue |
| US election megathread on 19:10 - Oct 28 by SpruceMoose |
I will consider your appeal. I do have a question though.
Are the Maltesers in a pack of Revels the exact same Maltesers that go into a back of Maltesers, or are they knock offs/damaged Maltesers?
Basically, what grade Maltesers ends up in a pack of Revels? |
That is a darn fine question.
I am guessing a person that has been a vegan for over twenty years, will just have to try an get away with this on sheer bravado.
They are made in the same factory, but the slightly knobbly and malformed ones get dumped down the Revel chute. So taste is okay but you can get variable chocolate to honeycomb ratios. |  | | |
| US election megathread on 19:21 - Oct 28 with 1673 views | SpruceMoose |
| US election megathread on 19:13 - Oct 28 by bluelagos |
I meant more as in the polling. They pick up and report the polls that indicate Biden is doing well.
E.g. i stumbled on a tweet earlier showing a reducing gap (Trump closing the gap) for the votes already made in a state (Florida or Georgia, cant recall) which sounded like it meant a Trump state win was looking probable.
No sign of that poll in the Guardian feeds though.
So my point is that as I have a left wing source of polling (and news) am I getting a fair representation of what is happening? Cos they got it wrong 4 years ago... |
Ah I get you. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/ aggregate all polls, even the right leaning ones like Rasmussen and the duff ones like SurveyMonkey, so that's where I've been going for my polling aggregates.
They have the Stokie seal of approval and that's good enough for me!
They also did a really good explanation of polling in 2016, and how it wasn't really that incorrect, but that lessons have been learned. If you look at 2018 polling, there's even an argument that the pollsters have overcorrected.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-are-all-right/
But like I said, I'm taking nothing for granted! A 12% chance is still a chance. [Post edited 28 Oct 2020 19:24]
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| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| US election megathread on 19:22 - Oct 28 with 1670 views | SpruceMoose |
| US election megathread on 19:19 - Oct 28 by eireblue |
That is a darn fine question.
I am guessing a person that has been a vegan for over twenty years, will just have to try an get away with this on sheer bravado.
They are made in the same factory, but the slightly knobbly and malformed ones get dumped down the Revel chute. So taste is okay but you can get variable chocolate to honeycomb ratios. |
See, for me, that alone is enough to knock them off top spot. | |
| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| US election megathread on 19:24 - Oct 28 with 1665 views | HARRY10 |
| US election megathread on 18:48 - Oct 28 by Swansea_Blue |
Don't start me on that. I'm expecting him to get in until he doesn't. No nasty surprises that way, and yes I know all the signs look good. Too good to be true is what I'm worried about. |
"Electoral votes if state polls are as wrong as they were in 2016"
Biden 335
Trump 205
"Electoral votes if polling leads translate perfectly to results "
Biden 357
Trump 181
I've been watching these polls, and they have been slowly edging toward a bigger Biden win for the past 6 weeks or so.
It should be remembered that in 2016 it was pretty nip and tuck with Clinton never more than around a couple of points ahead in the final few weeks.
The concern now is the Democrats taking control of the Senate as well
There then needs to be a root and branch investigation of Trumps corrupt business practices, as well as his involvement with Russian interference in elections.... as a starting point. [Post edited 28 Oct 2020 20:15]
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| US election megathread on 19:29 - Oct 28 with 1655 views | bluelagos |
| US election megathread on 19:21 - Oct 28 by SpruceMoose |
Ah I get you. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/ aggregate all polls, even the right leaning ones like Rasmussen and the duff ones like SurveyMonkey, so that's where I've been going for my polling aggregates.
They have the Stokie seal of approval and that's good enough for me!
They also did a really good explanation of polling in 2016, and how it wasn't really that incorrect, but that lessons have been learned. If you look at 2018 polling, there's even an argument that the pollsters have overcorrected.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-are-all-right/
But like I said, I'm taking nothing for granted! A 12% chance is still a chance. [Post edited 28 Oct 2020 19:24]
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Yep 12% is 12% too high!
We often get accused of being a lefty cabal on here, and there is some truth to it. Will try and find that tweet and will post it if I can find it. | |
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| US election megathread on 20:06 - Oct 28 with 1620 views | bluelagos |
| US election megathread on 19:29 - Oct 28 by bluelagos |
Yep 12% is 12% too high!
We often get accused of being a lefty cabal on here, and there is some truth to it. Will try and find that tweet and will post it if I can find it. |
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| US election megathread on 20:15 - Oct 28 with 1615 views | jeera |
| US election megathread on 18:43 - Oct 28 by SpruceMoose |
Is there a hierarchy of Revels sweets?
Personally I'd go for (from best to worst):
Minstrels
Maltesers
Toffee
Coffee
Orange
You'd have to be mad to disagree. |
I've been called a Malteser lots of times before.
I don't even know the lingo. |  |
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| US election megathread on 20:16 - Oct 28 with 1610 views | SpruceMoose |
| US election megathread on 20:06 - Oct 28 by bluelagos |
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Personally I don't think it tells us much as we don't know which way all those independents and others voters are breaking. We also don't know how many registered Republicans are voting for Biden (or Democratic voters voting for Trump).
There has been a tightening of the polls in Florida over the last few weeks in Trump's favour though, so it's pretty much a coinflip right now.
Luckily, Biden doesn't need to win Florida. If he wins PA then Trump has just a 2% chance of winning. If he loses PA, he's still not beaten as he has other routes to victory.
The bottom line is that Biden has multiple paths to victory where as Trump is going to be left trying to thread the eye of a needle in order to win. It's not impossible that he will do it, but it's not all that likely. | |
| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| US election megathread on 20:22 - Oct 28 with 1598 views | J2BLUE |
I'm sorry but no one in the UK has ever referred to the counter as a Minstrel. The lack of hard outer shell which makes a Minstrel a Minstrel clearly shows that the counter is not a Minstrel. |  |
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| US election megathread on 20:25 - Oct 28 with 1593 views | SpruceMoose |
| US election megathread on 20:22 - Oct 28 by J2BLUE |
I'm sorry but no one in the UK has ever referred to the counter as a Minstrel. The lack of hard outer shell which makes a Minstrel a Minstrel clearly shows that the counter is not a Minstrel. |
The very fact that they have to be defined by describing a minstrel shows you to be incorrect.
Counter my arse. You don't know what the working man called them! | |
| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| US election megathread on 20:31 - Oct 28 with 1579 views | J2BLUE |
| US election megathread on 20:25 - Oct 28 by SpruceMoose |
The very fact that they have to be defined by describing a minstrel shows you to be incorrect.
Counter my arse. You don't know what the working man called them! |
I don't believe they do. They could have said a solid counter of chocolate. A Minstrel is just a convenient way of telling people the shape.
You are wrong sir and VAR shall prove it. | |
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| US election megathread on 20:35 - Oct 28 with 1567 views | SpruceMoose |
| US election megathread on 20:31 - Oct 28 by J2BLUE |
I don't believe they do. They could have said a solid counter of chocolate. A Minstrel is just a convenient way of telling people the shape.
You are wrong sir and VAR shall prove it. |
I fundamentally reject VAR's ability to judge the truth in this matter. That you are so quick to defer to flawed technology just proves that you are trying to force this decision through without necessary due care and attention. What is it you are trying to distract from here?
I have to say, this is a pure Trumpian approach to sweet categorisation. | |
| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| US election megathread on 21:03 - Oct 28 with 1549 views | HARRY10 |
| US election megathread on 20:25 - Oct 28 by SpruceMoose |
The very fact that they have to be defined by describing a minstrel shows you to be incorrect.
Counter my arse. You don't know what the working man called them! |
I sense this might just kick off shortly
I can sense a bit of pre minstrel tension going on | | | |
| US election megathread on 22:20 - Oct 28 with 1507 views | ElderGrizzly |
| US election megathread on 19:13 - Oct 28 by bluelagos |
I meant more as in the polling. They pick up and report the polls that indicate Biden is doing well.
E.g. i stumbled on a tweet earlier showing a reducing gap (Trump closing the gap) for the votes already made in a state (Florida or Georgia, cant recall) which sounded like it meant a Trump state win was looking probable.
No sign of that poll in the Guardian feeds though.
So my point is that as I have a left wing source of polling (and news) am I getting a fair representation of what is happening? Cos they got it wrong 4 years ago... |
This is good news in theory for Biden
A big turn out is curtains for Trump
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| US election megathread on 22:30 - Oct 28 with 1501 views | eireblue |
| US election megathread on 21:03 - Oct 28 by HARRY10 |
I sense this might just kick off shortly
I can sense a bit of pre minstrel tension going on |
I think we have all probably had a Christmas entirely ruined by an Orange Revel. I know I have.
In these times, we should all rally around, and agree that even a slightly knobbly Malteser, is much better than an Orange revel, and whether it is the best of all the revels, it is, is not the most important thing, so there should be no real reason for not keeping Maltesers in first place, with of course a very creditable second place, Minstrel. | | | |
| US election megathread on 23:02 - Oct 28 with 1480 views | J2BLUE |
| US election megathread on 20:35 - Oct 28 by SpruceMoose |
I fundamentally reject VAR's ability to judge the truth in this matter. That you are so quick to defer to flawed technology just proves that you are trying to force this decision through without necessary due care and attention. What is it you are trying to distract from here?
I have to say, this is a pure Trumpian approach to sweet categorisation. |
I am not wrong, but as an election gift to you I am going to concede. | |
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| US election megathread on 23:26 - Oct 28 with 1459 views | SpruceMoose |
I wonder what it is about the corrupt racist bigot that Farage identifies with? | |
| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| US election megathread on 23:54 - Oct 28 with 1436 views | HARRY10 |
| US election megathread on 20:16 - Oct 28 by SpruceMoose |
Personally I don't think it tells us much as we don't know which way all those independents and others voters are breaking. We also don't know how many registered Republicans are voting for Biden (or Democratic voters voting for Trump).
There has been a tightening of the polls in Florida over the last few weeks in Trump's favour though, so it's pretty much a coinflip right now.
Luckily, Biden doesn't need to win Florida. If he wins PA then Trump has just a 2% chance of winning. If he loses PA, he's still not beaten as he has other routes to victory.
The bottom line is that Biden has multiple paths to victory where as Trump is going to be left trying to thread the eye of a needle in order to win. It's not impossible that he will do it, but it's not all that likely. |
"But Trump would need more than Florida to secure a second term. Biden would win with 312 electoral votes if he wins every state Clinton won four years ago along with the six Trump 2016 states he's currently leading in: Michigan (+8.7 points), Pennsylvania (+3.8 points), and Wisconsin (+7.8 points), Arizona (+2.4 points), Iowa (+1.4 points), and North Carolina (+0.7 points), according to RealClearPolitics poll averages. "
As it stands Biden has it pretty much in the bag. Trump has to hold all that are currently seen as his states, then win ALL the so called 'toss up' states to finish around 40 seats behind Biden.
Check out the link here
https://www.270towin.com/maps/consensus-2020-electoral-map-forecast
This has not really moved much over the past month or more - showing what I have stated above
290 v 163 with 85 marginal - so you can give Trump Florida, North Carolina, Texas, Ohio and Virginia and he still loses by 40 seats
The real story is that he has not eaten into that 290 seat majority Biden is projected to win, with many once marginal now firmly seen as Biden.
From the New York Times today
Electoral votes if state polls are as wrong as they were in 2016
Biden 335
Trump 203
Electoral votes if polling leads translate perfectly to results
Biden 357
Trump 181
Unless Trump narrows the lead considerably in the next few days, then the polls will need to ALL be massively out for him to win. | | | |
| US election megathread on 00:40 - Oct 29 with 1411 views | J2BLUE |
| US election megathread on 23:54 - Oct 28 by HARRY10 |
"But Trump would need more than Florida to secure a second term. Biden would win with 312 electoral votes if he wins every state Clinton won four years ago along with the six Trump 2016 states he's currently leading in: Michigan (+8.7 points), Pennsylvania (+3.8 points), and Wisconsin (+7.8 points), Arizona (+2.4 points), Iowa (+1.4 points), and North Carolina (+0.7 points), according to RealClearPolitics poll averages. "
As it stands Biden has it pretty much in the bag. Trump has to hold all that are currently seen as his states, then win ALL the so called 'toss up' states to finish around 40 seats behind Biden.
Check out the link here
https://www.270towin.com/maps/consensus-2020-electoral-map-forecast
This has not really moved much over the past month or more - showing what I have stated above
290 v 163 with 85 marginal - so you can give Trump Florida, North Carolina, Texas, Ohio and Virginia and he still loses by 40 seats
The real story is that he has not eaten into that 290 seat majority Biden is projected to win, with many once marginal now firmly seen as Biden.
From the New York Times today
Electoral votes if state polls are as wrong as they were in 2016
Biden 335
Trump 203
Electoral votes if polling leads translate perfectly to results
Biden 357
Trump 181
Unless Trump narrows the lead considerably in the next few days, then the polls will need to ALL be massively out for him to win. |
What if the polls are right but there are a lot of shy Trump voters? | |
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| US election megathread on 06:41 - Oct 29 with 1350 views | ElderGrizzly |
What a twist.
Apparently all the super big expose on Hunter Biden was stolen in the post on its way to Tucker.
Because you wouldn’t scan it or copy it first or anything if this was SO big.
Then there is this of course. His employers argued he is a moron
[Post edited 29 Oct 2020 6:44]
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| US election megathread on 11:03 - Oct 29 with 1252 views | SpruceMoose |
| US election megathread on 06:41 - Oct 29 by ElderGrizzly |
What a twist.
Apparently all the super big expose on Hunter Biden was stolen in the post on its way to Tucker.
Because you wouldn’t scan it or copy it first or anything if this was SO big.
Then there is this of course. His employers argued he is a moron
[Post edited 29 Oct 2020 6:44]
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I think he's slowly turning into Trump... | |
| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| US election megathread on 11:28 - Oct 29 with 1239 views | tractordownsouth |
| US election megathread on 23:26 - Oct 28 by SpruceMoose |
I wonder what it is about the corrupt racist bigot that Farage identifies with? |
Do you remember the days when he used to be against foreigners interfering in other countries' politics? |  |
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| US election megathread on 11:45 - Oct 29 with 1215 views | SpruceMoose |
| US election megathread on 11:28 - Oct 29 by tractordownsouth |
Do you remember the days when he used to be against foreigners interfering in other countries' politics? |
He's a real world Paz. Always willing to snuggle up to some deplorable just to stay relevant and get a bit of attention and backup.
That some people couldn't (and still can't) see straight through this monorail salesman is a massive black mark on their character. | |
| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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