| US election megathread 03:24 - Sep 23 with 162930 views | SpruceMoose |
Seeing as we are approaching the presidential debates, and with the actual election being only 42 days away, maybe we could keep this as a US election megathread for those on here who are interested? One location for all the discussion would prevent multiple threads clogging up the board for those who don't care to get involved?
Personally, the reality of having to experience this election in the near future is stressful AF so if anyone else wants to get stressed together... Jump on board.
Now, insert all the usual caveats about polling here but...it's looking positive that we will be rid of Trump come 2021, much to the disappointment of a couple of posters on here. 538 are well respected in the field of poll analysis so what they announce should be taken seriously.
Of course their analysis doesn't take account of any election fraud, Russian interference, voter suppression etc. But it's positive news none the less. Once Trump is gone, we can work on Johnson. Decent people of the world... Unite!
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/ [Post edited 23 Sep 2020 3:32]
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| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| US election megathread on 11:09 - Nov 4 with 3685 views | gordon |
| US election megathread on 10:58 - Nov 4 by hype313 |
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Yeah, think in the end (if it all gets counted etc.) then sounds like Biden is likely to win in Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Nevada, and lose North Carolina, giving a Biden win by 296 - 231.
And the popular vote will probably be about 2% better for democrats compared to last time, which is mental. |  | | |
| US election megathread on 11:19 - Nov 4 with 3653 views | N2_Blue |
| US election megathread on 10:57 - Nov 4 by gordon |
He's pretty likely to win on the balance of probabilities - in Michigan they've still got hundreds of thousands of votes to count from the Detroit area which should see Biden home comfortably.
I'd guess (without much knowledge) that something going wrong in Nevada or even Arizona is higher risk for Biden, and then if he loses Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina.
Think in Nevada and Arizona there could potentially still be lots of rural votes to count. |
Looking at the countys that have declared in Arizona no way i can see him losing that, lower vote counts in countys that have voted Biden from what I can see.
Nevada more of a risk but still a lot of votes to come from Clark County that seems to be voting Biden |  |
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| US election megathread on 11:22 - Nov 4 with 3642 views | N2_Blue |
| US election megathread on 11:01 - Nov 4 by Ryorry |
When I went to bed (at 7am!) Arizona had been called for Biden tho? This is a 'mare!
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Arizona will be Biden looking at the countys that have most votes to count. Not worried there.
I'm still confident Biden will get 271 | |
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| US election megathread on 11:24 - Nov 4 with 3630 views | N2_Blue |
| US election megathread on 11:09 - Nov 4 by gordon |
Yeah, think in the end (if it all gets counted etc.) then sounds like Biden is likely to win in Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Nevada, and lose North Carolina, giving a Biden win by 296 - 231.
And the popular vote will probably be about 2% better for democrats compared to last time, which is mental. |
So hope you are right. More confident Biden will win although not to your margin. Still worried by PA but hopeful for Georgia with Atlanta vote | |
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| US election megathread on 11:29 - Nov 4 with 3608 views | gordon |
| US election megathread on 11:24 - Nov 4 by N2_Blue |
So hope you are right. More confident Biden will win although not to your margin. Still worried by PA but hopeful for Georgia with Atlanta vote |
Yes, Georgia and Michigan both look pretty safe for Biden, and if Arizona and Nevada are in the bag then it's a clear win. Pennsylvania is anyone's guess and could be a mess, but hopefully they will count up in Michigan and Georgia quickly so Pennsylvania becomes irrelevant. | | | |
| US election megathread on 11:38 - Nov 4 with 3556 views | ElderGrizzly |
| US election megathread on 11:29 - Nov 4 by gordon |
Yes, Georgia and Michigan both look pretty safe for Biden, and if Arizona and Nevada are in the bag then it's a clear win. Pennsylvania is anyone's guess and could be a mess, but hopefully they will count up in Michigan and Georgia quickly so Pennsylvania becomes irrelevant. |
And the only reason Pennsylvania is a mess is the Republicans prevented any counting of mail in ballots (of which there are 2.2m) before election day.
The guy in charge there was just on CNN and said it was an “Election Week” and they would not have an answer until Friday |  | | |
| US election megathread on 11:39 - Nov 4 with 3544 views | yorkshireblue |
Nevada have stopped counting, and will resume on Thursday morning. |  | | |
| US election megathread on 11:51 - Nov 4 with 3500 views | JamestownPrince |
Betting wise, Trump went from 2-1 yesterday to around 2-7 on during the night and settling at around 4-9 this morning...
Latest betting - Biden 1-2 , Trump 13-8
something going on |  | | |
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| US election megathread on 11:55 - Nov 4 with 3480 views | Herbivore |
| US election megathread on 11:51 - Nov 4 by JamestownPrince |
Betting wise, Trump went from 2-1 yesterday to around 2-7 on during the night and settling at around 4-9 this morning...
Latest betting - Biden 1-2 , Trump 13-8
something going on |
Yes, people are placing bets. |  |
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| US election megathread on 11:58 - Nov 4 with 3469 views | N2_Blue |
| US election megathread on 11:55 - Nov 4 by Herbivore |
Yes, people are placing bets. |
Biden will likely win if all votes are counted so not surprising he's shortened | |
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| US election megathread on 11:58 - Nov 4 with 3468 views | itfcjoe |
| US election megathread on 11:51 - Nov 4 by JamestownPrince |
Betting wise, Trump went from 2-1 yesterday to around 2-7 on during the night and settling at around 4-9 this morning...
Latest betting - Biden 1-2 , Trump 13-8
something going on |
People are reacting to the latest piece of news rather than the overall picture - ultimately Biden's route to victory is still easier than Trumps. Even if polls are off by 5% as they were in Florida it isn't enough for Trump.
Once the potential landslide went, and the chance for it to be announced on the night - this was the only way it could/can play out |  |
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| US election megathread on 12:28 - Nov 4 with 3383 views | gordon |
| US election megathread on 11:51 - Nov 4 by JamestownPrince |
Betting wise, Trump went from 2-1 yesterday to around 2-7 on during the night and settling at around 4-9 this morning...
Latest betting - Biden 1-2 , Trump 13-8
something going on |
The chances of Trump winning fairly are pretty small now. There's no way that Michigan or Wisconsin aren't going to Biden.
Trump's only hope is that the uncounted votes in Nevada are very kind, and then he wins in Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina, which is nowhere near a 13-8 chance. | | | |
| US election megathread on 13:13 - Nov 4 with 3273 views | wkj |
| US election megathread on 11:29 - Nov 4 by gordon |
Yes, Georgia and Michigan both look pretty safe for Biden, and if Arizona and Nevada are in the bag then it's a clear win. Pennsylvania is anyone's guess and could be a mess, but hopefully they will count up in Michigan and Georgia quickly so Pennsylvania becomes irrelevant. |
I still don't see Georgia as safe at all - I enjoy being proven wrong though. Michigan is likely, Wisconsin looks good though with be subject to a recount, and PA is a big question mark. I do see this going to Biden though. |  |
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| US election megathread on 13:17 - Nov 4 with 3244 views | ElderGrizzly |
| US election megathread on 13:13 - Nov 4 by wkj |
I still don't see Georgia as safe at all - I enjoy being proven wrong though. Michigan is likely, Wisconsin looks good though with be subject to a recount, and PA is a big question mark. I do see this going to Biden though. |
Agree. Georgia is knife edge and i can see that staying Trump.
I think Biden will get to 270 with Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan and Arizona. He then doesn’t need anything else.
The positive thing is if you are a democrat, the interviews with state officials on CNN are all saying the outstanding ballots are pretty much all from democratic counties within the states.
We might not hear from Nevada until Thursday though apparently
Fingers crossed... [Post edited 4 Nov 2020 13:18]
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| US election megathread on 13:19 - Nov 4 with 3222 views | jeera |
| US election megathread on 13:13 - Nov 4 by wkj |
I still don't see Georgia as safe at all - I enjoy being proven wrong though. Michigan is likely, Wisconsin looks good though with be subject to a recount, and PA is a big question mark. I do see this going to Biden though. |
I'm not grasping the Georgia claim either, but admit I'm not as clued up you guys.
With just 8% showing as left to be counted, and Trump still ahead by over 100,000 votes, on what grounds are we hoping for a flip there? |  |
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| US election megathread on 13:20 - Nov 4 with 3217 views | footers |
| US election megathread on 13:13 - Nov 4 by wkj |
I still don't see Georgia as safe at all - I enjoy being proven wrong though. Michigan is likely, Wisconsin looks good though with be subject to a recount, and PA is a big question mark. I do see this going to Biden though. |
There was a large effort to mobilise the young, black vote in Georgia though. I guess we'll see if that's helped in having any kind of effect on the outcome there. Interesting times.
It's going to be two months of the Chinese, the Russians, Ancient Aliens and gay frogs. |  |
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| US election megathread on 13:28 - Nov 4 with 3162 views | MattinLondon |
| US election megathread on 13:20 - Nov 4 by footers |
There was a large effort to mobilise the young, black vote in Georgia though. I guess we'll see if that's helped in having any kind of effect on the outcome there. Interesting times.
It's going to be two months of the Chinese, the Russians, Ancient Aliens and gay frogs. |
Are the gay frogs, in or out of the closet? |  | | |
| US election megathread on 13:30 - Nov 4 with 3146 views | footers |
| US election megathread on 13:28 - Nov 4 by MattinLondon |
Are the gay frogs, in or out of the closet? |
Depends how strict and religious their parents are, I suppose. But that said, only 20% of frogs identify as Catholic. | |
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| US election megathread on 13:34 - Nov 4 with 3125 views | jeera |
| US election megathread on 13:30 - Nov 4 by footers |
Depends how strict and religious their parents are, I suppose. But that said, only 20% of frogs identify as Catholic. |
It's not been the same there since Louis XVi. | |
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| US election megathread on 13:39 - Nov 4 with 3100 views | wkj |
The most important thing right now in the moment for Biden that if WI does close, his numbers are 1pt or higher than Trump, otherwise Trump will be able to call for a recount (following the traditional rules of the state anyway) | |
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| US election megathread on 13:53 - Nov 4 with 3060 views | Mercian |
The odds have been up and down more than West Brom. At midnight Biden was 3/1 on to win. By 3.30 AM Trump was at odds of 4/1 on and I called it for him. Now Biden is 4/11 and Trump 5/2. The bookies have had a busy few hours. |  | | |
| US election megathread on 13:56 - Nov 4 with 3042 views | tractordownsouth |
| US election megathread on 13:53 - Nov 4 by Mercian |
The odds have been up and down more than West Brom. At midnight Biden was 3/1 on to win. By 3.30 AM Trump was at odds of 4/1 on and I called it for him. Now Biden is 4/11 and Trump 5/2. The bookies have had a busy few hours. |
Because people just saw the numbers on screen and lumped on, which affected the markets. They didn't consider the number of absentee ballots swining towards Biden late on |  |
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| US election megathread on 14:02 - Nov 4 with 3025 views | wkj |
| US election megathread on 13:56 - Nov 4 by tractordownsouth |
Because people just saw the numbers on screen and lumped on, which affected the markets. They didn't consider the number of absentee ballots swining towards Biden late on |
Michigan just turned into a blue lead (AP) - This will cause the bookie's odds to skid more. | |
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| US election megathread on 14:02 - Nov 4 with 3025 views | footers |
| US election megathread on 13:56 - Nov 4 by tractordownsouth |
Because people just saw the numbers on screen and lumped on, which affected the markets. They didn't consider the number of absentee ballots swining towards Biden late on |
It'll depend on each particular bookie and their market-makers, I suppose. The odds fluctuating purely on punters' cash is surely just on exchanges? | |
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| US election megathread on 14:03 - Nov 4 with 3019 views | wkj |
| US election megathread on 14:02 - Nov 4 by footers |
It'll depend on each particular bookie and their market-makers, I suppose. The odds fluctuating purely on punters' cash is surely just on exchanges? |
I bet a lot of bookies will void payouts in the even of legal challenges too, I hate political betting in a massive way. | |
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