| US election megathread 03:24 - Sep 23 with 162951 views | SpruceMoose |
Seeing as we are approaching the presidential debates, and with the actual election being only 42 days away, maybe we could keep this as a US election megathread for those on here who are interested? One location for all the discussion would prevent multiple threads clogging up the board for those who don't care to get involved?
Personally, the reality of having to experience this election in the near future is stressful AF so if anyone else wants to get stressed together... Jump on board.
Now, insert all the usual caveats about polling here but...it's looking positive that we will be rid of Trump come 2021, much to the disappointment of a couple of posters on here. 538 are well respected in the field of poll analysis so what they announce should be taken seriously.
Of course their analysis doesn't take account of any election fraud, Russian interference, voter suppression etc. But it's positive news none the less. Once Trump is gone, we can work on Johnson. Decent people of the world... Unite!
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/ [Post edited 23 Sep 2020 3:32]
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| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| US election megathread on 14:07 - Nov 4 with 1825 views | J2BLUE |
| US election megathread on 14:02 - Nov 4 by footers |
It'll depend on each particular bookie and their market-makers, I suppose. The odds fluctuating purely on punters' cash is surely just on exchanges? |
The bookies just want roughly equal profit on each outcome. If Paddy Power take a £10,000 bet on Trump at 2/1 they are going to shorten his price and let Biden drift a bit to attract more money on that outcome. |  |
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| US election megathread on 14:13 - Nov 4 with 1777 views | Ryorry |
What time did the last polls close? Wasn't clear with individual states & their time zones.
Couldn't believe how counting & commentary on results is allowed whilst some polling stations are still open & people are still voting! Surely this must influence people about to vote? esp if the result is close. |  |
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| US election megathread on 14:18 - Nov 4 with 1772 views | yorkshireblue |
| US election megathread on 14:07 - Nov 4 by J2BLUE |
The bookies just want roughly equal profit on each outcome. If Paddy Power take a £10,000 bet on Trump at 2/1 they are going to shorten his price and let Biden drift a bit to attract more money on that outcome. |
On betting, SkyBet list "Outright Winner".
What happens if, as I suspect, Biden wins via the electoral college and it goes to court? Would they pay out? |  | | |
| US election megathread on 14:26 - Nov 4 with 1736 views | Mercian |
| US election megathread on 14:13 - Nov 4 by Ryorry |
What time did the last polls close? Wasn't clear with individual states & their time zones.
Couldn't believe how counting & commentary on results is allowed whilst some polling stations are still open & people are still voting! Surely this must influence people about to vote? esp if the result is close. |
Early it seems as we were getting results by 3am our time. |  | | |
| US election megathread on 14:28 - Nov 4 with 1727 views | Mercian |
| US election megathread on 14:02 - Nov 4 by wkj |
Michigan just turned into a blue lead (AP) - This will cause the bookie's odds to skid more. |
As has Wisconsin. I am really tempted to call for Biden right now but 10 hours ago I called for Trump with some conviction. It's certainly been fascinating. | | | |
| US election megathread on 14:30 - Nov 4 with 1709 views | J2BLUE |
| US election megathread on 14:18 - Nov 4 by yorkshireblue |
On betting, SkyBet list "Outright Winner".
What happens if, as I suspect, Biden wins via the electoral college and it goes to court? Would they pay out? |
I suspect so but possibly not until the inauguration. | |
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| US election megathread on 14:32 - Nov 4 with 1705 views | jeera |
| US election megathread on 14:28 - Nov 4 by Mercian |
As has Wisconsin. I am really tempted to call for Biden right now but 10 hours ago I called for Trump with some conviction. It's certainly been fascinating. |
Fascinating.
That's one take on it I suppose.
I've been cursing the TV screen every time I see the Orange One and raising my voice and quite possibly my blood pressure too! |  |
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| US election megathread on 14:36 - Nov 4 with 1683 views | Tangledupin_Blue |
| US election megathread on 14:28 - Nov 4 by Mercian |
As has Wisconsin. I am really tempted to call for Biden right now but 10 hours ago I called for Trump with some conviction. It's certainly been fascinating. |
Me too. I couldn't see a way in for Biden. By then I'd had a bottle of MSR and was on the wine.
Things look a lot better now though. |  |
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| US election megathread on 14:38 - Nov 4 with 1673 views | C_HealyIsAPleasure |
| US election megathread on 14:32 - Nov 4 by jeera |
Fascinating.
That's one take on it I suppose.
I've been cursing the TV screen every time I see the Orange One and raising my voice and quite possibly my blood pressure too! |
It’s certainly gripping and I think the way it’s currently poised would make for a great spectacle in a normal election with normal candidates
But it’s impossible to enjoy given the significance of the outcome, and the prospect of some very unsavoury scenes to come no matter the outcome |  |
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| US election megathread on 14:40 - Nov 4 with 1658 views | wkj |
| US election megathread on 14:28 - Nov 4 by Mercian |
As has Wisconsin. I am really tempted to call for Biden right now but 10 hours ago I called for Trump with some conviction. It's certainly been fascinating. |
This was what I called in the wee hours of the morning, so - I hope it closes like this. Im still very unsure about PA though, and WI are poised for a recount.
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| US election megathread on 14:46 - Nov 4 with 1633 views | DinDjarin |
I'm confused
Currently Biden 238 Trump 213
Biden wins NV, WI and MI = 6 + 10 + 16 + 238 = 270
Trump wins GA, NC and PA = 16 + 15 + 20 + 213 = 264
270 + 264 = 534
Where are the other 4 seats as should be 538? |  | | |
| US election megathread on 14:47 - Nov 4 with 1624 views | N2_Blue |
| US election megathread on 14:40 - Nov 4 by wkj |
This was what I called in the wee hours of the morning, so - I hope it closes like this. Im still very unsure about PA though, and WI are poised for a recount.
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I'd rather Biden did win PA but think he'll still win without it |  |
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| US election megathread on 14:55 - Nov 4 with 1591 views | wkj |
| US election megathread on 14:47 - Nov 4 by N2_Blue |
I'd rather Biden did win PA but think he'll still win without it |
The more I am hearing from some former colleagues in PA is that the turnout at a few of the popular Democrat polling spots were much busier than in 2016 - I think PA will be blue again, but it will be tight.
I do not feel that GA will turn like NY Times says is a 67% of happening, so all eyes on Pittsburgh and Philly this week still. | |
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| US election megathread on 14:58 - Nov 4 with 1580 views | giant_stow |
Even if Biden still wins, what I find really disturbing is this: what happens next time, if the Republicans can find a competent, non shyster and brighter candidate who basically stands for the same stuff as Trump?
[massive shudder] |  |
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| US election megathread on 14:58 - Nov 4 with 1578 views | wkj |
| US election megathread on 14:46 - Nov 4 by DinDjarin |
I'm confused
Currently Biden 238 Trump 213
Biden wins NV, WI and MI = 6 + 10 + 16 + 238 = 270
Trump wins GA, NC and PA = 16 + 15 + 20 + 213 = 264
270 + 264 = 534
Where are the other 4 seats as should be 538? |
Maine and Nebraska has two democratic regions that count as stand-alone electoral colleges.
NV (2pts) - NV1 (1pt) - NV2 (1pt)
Trump - Trump - Biden
ME (2pts) - ME1 (1pt) -ME2 (1pt)
Biden - Biden - Biden
So I expect the 4 points are NV1 + 2 and ME1 + 2 | |
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| US election megathread on 15:00 - Nov 4 with 1562 views | N2_Blue |
| US election megathread on 14:55 - Nov 4 by wkj |
The more I am hearing from some former colleagues in PA is that the turnout at a few of the popular Democrat polling spots were much busier than in 2016 - I think PA will be blue again, but it will be tight.
I do not feel that GA will turn like NY Times says is a 67% of happening, so all eyes on Pittsburgh and Philly this week still. |
Regarding Georgia Dekalb County has only counted 80% of its votes and is currently:
260,000 Biden
51,000 Trump
That's 83% Biden and why i think he has every chance of Georgia | |
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| US election megathread on 15:00 - Nov 4 with 1563 views | Funge |
| US election megathread on 14:58 - Nov 4 by giant_stow |
Even if Biden still wins, what I find really disturbing is this: what happens next time, if the Republicans can find a competent, non shyster and brighter candidate who basically stands for the same stuff as Trump?
[massive shudder] |
Short answer, I fear, is yes - this bloke.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Cotton |  | | |
| US election megathread on 15:00 - Nov 4 with 1563 views | jeera |
| US election megathread on 14:58 - Nov 4 by giant_stow |
Even if Biden still wins, what I find really disturbing is this: what happens next time, if the Republicans can find a competent, non shyster and brighter candidate who basically stands for the same stuff as Trump?
[massive shudder] |
Then we'd have to hope the Dems do the same.
First things first, this freak show has to end. | |
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| US election megathread on 15:01 - Nov 4 with 1559 views | wkj |
| US election megathread on 14:58 - Nov 4 by giant_stow |
Even if Biden still wins, what I find really disturbing is this: what happens next time, if the Republicans can find a competent, non shyster and brighter candidate who basically stands for the same stuff as Trump?
[massive shudder] |
As it stands, this will be my 2024 candidate prediction
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lindsey_Graham
I don't see the Republicans giving up on "Trumpism" for quite some time. | |
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| US election megathread on 15:01 - Nov 4 with 1552 views | Mercian |
| US election megathread on 14:58 - Nov 4 by giant_stow |
Even if Biden still wins, what I find really disturbing is this: what happens next time, if the Republicans can find a competent, non shyster and brighter candidate who basically stands for the same stuff as Trump?
[massive shudder] |
No Covid = Trump landslide. | | | |
| US election megathread on 15:03 - Nov 4 with 1544 views | N2_Blue |
| US election megathread on 14:58 - Nov 4 by giant_stow |
Even if Biden still wins, what I find really disturbing is this: what happens next time, if the Republicans can find a competent, non shyster and brighter candidate who basically stands for the same stuff as Trump?
[massive shudder] |
No don't think so.
US demographic is changing so I think this election is the last that will for example have Texas voting Republican
I think it will be harder for Republicans to win next election whoever the candidates are | |
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| US election megathread on 15:03 - Nov 4 with 1542 views | wkj |
| US election megathread on 15:00 - Nov 4 by N2_Blue |
Regarding Georgia Dekalb County has only counted 80% of its votes and is currently:
260,000 Biden
51,000 Trump
That's 83% Biden and why i think he has every chance of Georgia |
I certainly hope so, with Wisconsen eligible for a recount challenge, if Biden flips GA then Trump will have a lot more to do and more legal battles to frivolously launch.
It is at this point I would not be surprised if a few republicans start turning on Trump. | |
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| US election megathread on 15:05 - Nov 4 with 1536 views | Dyland |
| US election megathread on 14:58 - Nov 4 by giant_stow |
Even if Biden still wins, what I find really disturbing is this: what happens next time, if the Republicans can find a competent, non shyster and brighter candidate who basically stands for the same stuff as Trump?
[massive shudder] |
The overriding issue for me is Trump's character, his total lack of diplomacy, honesty and decency, rather than his policies per se. He is totally unfit for public office. What is the point?
Divide and rule, and far too many people can't see it or just don't care.
The endarkenment is in full swing. |  |
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| US election megathread on 15:07 - Nov 4 with 1523 views | Funge |
| US election megathread on 15:05 - Nov 4 by Dyland |
The overriding issue for me is Trump's character, his total lack of diplomacy, honesty and decency, rather than his policies per se. He is totally unfit for public office. What is the point?
Divide and rule, and far too many people can't see it or just don't care.
The endarkenment is in full swing. |
Dyllers old fruit I posted on here to you a while back, that we were at the turn of the tide. (I may have been high at the time)
I still stand by that comment. | | | |
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