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Although it's doubtful we actually have more cases, just more confirmed cases. We were barely testing back then so it's hard to meaningfully compare the figures.
I agree though that we do seem to not be learning our lessons. Earlier lockdown increases the likelihood of lockdown being eased more quickly, the later it's left the longer the lockdown needs to be to get things under control again. When we lockdown in a couple of weeks it's going to be very frustrating and will likely be for longer than the 2 week circuit break that was being considered.
"But she said it was important to remember that many more people are being tested now than at the peak of the outbreak earlier in the year."
This is an important factor which has to be taken in account. If the comparison was hospitalisations against hospitalisations that would be very bad indeed.
As it stands it's hard to make direct comparisons given the different testing levels.
SB
Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula
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Are we stumbling into another too-late lockdown? on 14:13 - Sep 23 with 1982 views
Today another school in ipswich had a class sent home as a pupil has been confirmed positive. That’s 2 in 2 days, in an area of the country that has supposedly the lowest infection rate in the country.
I don’t see how any of the restraints put in place yesterday will make any difference. I’m pretty certain that I have said that sometime before.....
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Are we stumbling into another too-late lockdown? on 14:14 - Sep 23 with 1976 views
We definitely don’t have more cases, at the point of its highest infections 6 months ago we were looking at 100k infections, even based on the profs predictions on Monday were only looking at maximum half of that
Are we stumbling into another too-late lockdown? on 14:14 - Sep 23 by Ely_Blue
We definitely don’t have more cases, at the point of its highest infections 6 months ago we were looking at 100k infections, even based on the profs predictions on Monday were only looking at maximum half of that
There are no official figures to confirm 100k infections 6 months ago. The only thing I can see is a study saying only 1% of infections were captured so they multiplied the numbers by 100.
It's likely it was the case but you cannot just state it and dismiss future projections on the basis of it.
SB
Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula
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Are we stumbling into another too-late lockdown? on 14:26 - Sep 23 with 1890 views
Are we stumbling into another too-late lockdown? on 14:13 - Sep 23 by pennyfathersleg
Totally agree!
Today another school in ipswich had a class sent home as a pupil has been confirmed positive. That’s 2 in 2 days, in an area of the country that has supposedly the lowest infection rate in the country.
I don’t see how any of the restraints put in place yesterday will make any difference. I’m pretty certain that I have said that sometime before.....
This is it, our local school has sent 3 year groups home now. Surely we can't be far off entering lockdown by default, pretty much as we did last time.
Are we stumbling into another too-late lockdown? on 14:26 - Sep 23 by Swansea_Blue
This is it, our local school has sent 3 year groups home now. Surely we can't be far off entering lockdown by default, pretty much as we did last time.
I'm surprised we haven't had this yet. The school is part of a 3 school federation and none of them have had a confirmed case yet.
Suspect it's a matter of time though.
The worst thing is I feel the kids really need school a lot more than adults need to be going into the office.
The timing was mentioned yesterday on R4 when Prof Ferguson was interviewed by jim al-khalili.
He said that going into lockdown early made little or no difference at this point. Can't recall the detail behind the reasoning, I was driving, but I did take that onboard.
Assumption is to make an ass out of you and me.
Those who assume they know you, when they don't are just guessing.
Those who assume and insist they know are daft and in denial.
Those who assume, insist, and deny the truth are plain stupid.
Those who assume, insist, deny the truth and tell YOU they know you (when they don't) have an IQ in the range of 35-49.
Are we stumbling into another too-late lockdown? on 14:17 - Sep 23 by BlueBadger
Saw my first two 'likelies' in weeks at [redacted] last week. One had a night in ITU and the other is just about getting away with it.
[Post edited 23 Sep 2020 14:18]
MD is withering about the govt (again) over Covid in the new Private Eye. halfcock thinks people are having unnecessary tests 'because they're free' - as though people will happily drive God knows how far with a car-sick child to have a long swab stuck up his nose 'because it's free'. MD also lists the crushingly obvious things done during the summer which were guaranteed to massively increase the demand for tests which halfcock has failed to deliver. Of course the utterly talentless dido harding helped ensure the second wave of doom.
It's widely rumoured that Whitty and Vallance were both going to resign unless they made that broadcast on Monday.
Of course that broadcast was clear on what really needs to be done, boris and dominic will 'tweak' that and be saddled with the
Are we stumbling into another too-late lockdown? on 14:11 - Sep 23 by StokieBlue
From the article:
"But she said it was important to remember that many more people are being tested now than at the peak of the outbreak earlier in the year."
This is an important factor which has to be taken in account. If the comparison was hospitalisations against hospitalisations that would be very bad indeed.
As it stands it's hard to make direct comparisons given the different testing levels.
SB
The other difference between early March and now is that medical knowledge of covid is a lot better and treatment - as long as hospitals aren't overwhelmed - should be more effective.
We obviously need to be careful though with hospitalisations creeping up.
Are we stumbling into another too-late lockdown? on 15:08 - Sep 23 by Steve_M
The other difference between early March and now is that medical knowledge of covid is a lot better and treatment - as long as hospitals aren't overwhelmed - should be more effective.
We obviously need to be careful though with hospitalisations creeping up.
Ironically, despite lower numbers of hospitalisations, it's going to take a a lot less to overwhelm hospitals right now. It's January pressures out there right now.
I'm one of the people who was blamed for getting Paul Cook sacked. PM for the full post.
Are we stumbling into another too-late lockdown? on 15:08 - Sep 23 by Steve_M
The other difference between early March and now is that medical knowledge of covid is a lot better and treatment - as long as hospitals aren't overwhelmed - should be more effective.
We obviously need to be careful though with hospitalisations creeping up.
Not underplaying the current situation but the suggestions that the current number of cases is similar to the real level at the start of April when reported new cases first passed 4000 is clearly not correct. A more meaningful measure is the numbers in hospital at that time compared to now. On the 1st April the numbers of new cases per day was just over 4000 and the number in Hospital was around 13000. Compare to now when new cases are around 4500 per day but the number in hospital is around 1400. I’d suggest the real number of cases in April was around 10x the real number of cases now.
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Are we stumbling into another too-late lockdown? on 15:23 - Sep 23 with 1735 views
Are we stumbling into another too-late lockdown? on 14:30 - Sep 23 by hampstead_blue
The timing was mentioned yesterday on R4 when Prof Ferguson was interviewed by jim al-khalili.
He said that going into lockdown early made little or no difference at this point. Can't recall the detail behind the reasoning, I was driving, but I did take that onboard.
Are you sure about that? Just a few days ago he said some form of lockdown was needed sooner rather than later and that if we wait 2-4 weeks we'll be back where we were in March. Did you just hear what you wanted to hear perhaps?
Are we stumbling into another too-late lockdown? on 15:21 - Sep 23 by longtimefan
Not underplaying the current situation but the suggestions that the current number of cases is similar to the real level at the start of April when reported new cases first passed 4000 is clearly not correct. A more meaningful measure is the numbers in hospital at that time compared to now. On the 1st April the numbers of new cases per day was just over 4000 and the number in Hospital was around 13000. Compare to now when new cases are around 4500 per day but the number in hospital is around 1400. I’d suggest the real number of cases in April was around 10x the real number of cases now.
I will say the shift in the media to case numbers from death numbers is a positive.
I'm still determined it's been around longer than we are aware, but until the CCP level on that front we will struggle to know. What is the earliest case on record at present?
The problem with what we've announced (and generally with the way the whole thing has been managed) is that when making decisions with significant lags + exponential growth, you have to be absolutely sure that whatever measure you put in place is enough. Because yesterdays announcements yesterday aren't taking effect for a day or two, then it will be about 10 days before it could have any impact at all on infections.
So in 10 days or so, when daily infections could be up around e.g. 15,000 per day, with hospitalisations filling up, will they then be in a position to trust that these measures are about to kick in and drive down the virus?
You'd be mad to take that gamble (and likely wrong), so the measures announced yesterday make it pretty much inevitable that there are going to be much stricter measures announced in 10 days or so.
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Are we stumbling into another too-late lockdown? on 15:29 - Sep 23 with 1706 views
Are we stumbling into another too-late lockdown? on 15:23 - Sep 23 by Herbivore
Are you sure about that? Just a few days ago he said some form of lockdown was needed sooner rather than later and that if we wait 2-4 weeks we'll be back where we were in March. Did you just hear what you wanted to hear perhaps?
Are we stumbling into another too-late lockdown? on 15:23 - Sep 23 by Herbivore
Are you sure about that? Just a few days ago he said some form of lockdown was needed sooner rather than later and that if we wait 2-4 weeks we'll be back where we were in March. Did you just hear what you wanted to hear perhaps?
Neil Ferguson has given evidence to a parliamentary select committee saying that a lockdown one week earlier would have reduced the death toll by approximately half.
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Are we stumbling into another too-late lockdown? on 15:30 - Sep 23 with 1704 views
But now, in instances where the police are called to investigate reports of groups breaking the rule of 6, they will now be required to issue this as a form of warrant...
Are we stumbling into another too-late lockdown? on 14:30 - Sep 23 by StokieBlue
I'm surprised we haven't had this yet. The school is part of a 3 school federation and none of them have had a confirmed case yet.
Suspect it's a matter of time though.
The worst thing is I feel the kids really need school a lot more than adults need to be going into the office.
SB
We're rife here. Our local school is half closed, my boy's school has two of its years isolating, and pretty much everyone we know with kids in other schools say they have whole year groups isolating as well.
Our uni had its first batch of 12 cases yesterday, only a week after they came back. More to come no doubt.
Are we stumbling into another too-late lockdown? on 15:23 - Sep 23 by Herbivore
Are you sure about that? Just a few days ago he said some form of lockdown was needed sooner rather than later and that if we wait 2-4 weeks we'll be back where we were in March. Did you just hear what you wanted to hear perhaps?
Assumption is to make an ass out of you and me.
Those who assume they know you, when they don't are just guessing.
Those who assume and insist they know are daft and in denial.
Those who assume, insist, and deny the truth are plain stupid.
Those who assume, insist, deny the truth and tell YOU they know you (when they don't) have an IQ in the range of 35-49.
Are we stumbling into another too-late lockdown? on 14:30 - Sep 23 by hampstead_blue
The timing was mentioned yesterday on R4 when Prof Ferguson was interviewed by jim al-khalili.
He said that going into lockdown early made little or no difference at this point. Can't recall the detail behind the reasoning, I was driving, but I did take that onboard.
It’s on BBC Sounds. Listen again and you’ll find you’re mistaken.
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(fluked it) - 