| What is going on? 11:12 - Oct 24 with 3581 views | Bluesquid |
Books are needed more than ever in these times.
Is this really about a virus?
Is this even legal?
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| What is going on? on 20:58 - Oct 24 with 1353 views | StokieBlue |
| What is going on? on 20:11 - Oct 24 by Bluesquid |
"Now imagine..."
Seriously?
Supposing or assuming isn't very scientific is it?
All very Neil Ferguson-esque. |
It's frankly unbelievable that you'd cite anything as unscientific.
The context of the statement is clear, without lockdown the cases would be massive, we know this as we saw exponential before measures were put in place. Now given we know a percentage of those people will need hospitalisation my statement was correct in absence of lockdown.
Now go look up the words in there you don't understand and then get back under your bridge.
SB |  |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| What is going on? on 21:20 - Oct 24 with 1345 views | Bluesquid |
| What is going on? on 20:58 - Oct 24 by StokieBlue |
It's frankly unbelievable that you'd cite anything as unscientific.
The context of the statement is clear, without lockdown the cases would be massive, we know this as we saw exponential before measures were put in place. Now given we know a percentage of those people will need hospitalisation my statement was correct in absence of lockdown.
Now go look up the words in there you don't understand and then get back under your bridge.
SB |
All based on a test with a false positive return of over 90% (according to Bojo and Raab). | | | |
| What is going on? on 21:28 - Oct 24 with 1332 views | StokieBlue |
| What is going on? on 21:20 - Oct 24 by Bluesquid |
All based on a test with a false positive return of over 90% (according to Bojo and Raab). |
Which is incorrect and you know it. It's also nothing to do with what I posted. If people are in hospital with C19 related issues then the test is irrelevant.
Interesting you'll cite Boris went it suits you and accuse his of ceasing your civil liberties when it doesn't.
Obvious troll is obvious.
SB | |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| What is going on? on 21:34 - Oct 24 with 1330 views | Bluesquid |
| What is going on? on 21:28 - Oct 24 by StokieBlue |
Which is incorrect and you know it. It's also nothing to do with what I posted. If people are in hospital with C19 related issues then the test is irrelevant.
Interesting you'll cite Boris went it suits you and accuse his of ceasing your civil liberties when it doesn't.
Obvious troll is obvious.
SB |
You posted - "without lockdown the cases would be massive"
Cases based on a test with a false positive return of over 90%.
Anyway, if that figure is wrong then Bojo and Raab don't come out of it at all well do they?
But lets run with that and say that they are wrong and also by a fair bit and we go instead with the 30% that The Times reported, that percentage return of false positives is still huge. | | | |
| What is going on? on 06:37 - Oct 25 with 1275 views | urbanblue |
| What is going on? on 15:39 - Oct 24 by StokieBlue |
It's not about small businesses, it's about stopping people making journeys that aren't really required. If there are not fridges or books on sale then people won't make trips to look at them which really aren't needed. Books can of course be sourced in many other ways.
Once again, you can't take survival rate as the only thing you are considering, it's a function of survival rate and infectiousness but you seem to ignore the second part. The CDC are saying the excess deaths in the US are around 320,000 and that's with measures in place.
Unless you can provide evidence, repeatedly saying the actions undertaken have nothing to do with the virus is meaningless.
Show the evidence, not just conspiratorial conjecture, nearly all countries would need to be in on this alleged "civil liberties grab" given they are following the same course.
SB |
'.....the excess deaths in the US are around 320,000 and that's with measures in place.'
You didn't provide evidence of this figure so I looked it up. According to the last update on the CDC website which was 23rd October the excess deaths are at 299,208 of which 198,081 were related to Covid 19. One third (!!) of these excess deaths are NOT related to Covid so surely most would be as a result of lockdown measures. Non treatment of other Health issues, Suicide etc
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6942e2.htm
So do lockdowns work?
Of course, we cannot know what the numbers would be without lockdowns but this is an example of how data can be taken and used either way as a confirmation of ones opinion whatever side of the debate they side with. |  | | |
| What is going on? on 07:01 - Oct 25 with 1267 views | m14_blue |
| What is going on? on 06:37 - Oct 25 by urbanblue |
'.....the excess deaths in the US are around 320,000 and that's with measures in place.'
You didn't provide evidence of this figure so I looked it up. According to the last update on the CDC website which was 23rd October the excess deaths are at 299,208 of which 198,081 were related to Covid 19. One third (!!) of these excess deaths are NOT related to Covid so surely most would be as a result of lockdown measures. Non treatment of other Health issues, Suicide etc
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6942e2.htm
So do lockdowns work?
Of course, we cannot know what the numbers would be without lockdowns but this is an example of how data can be taken and used either way as a confirmation of ones opinion whatever side of the debate they side with. |
But surely no lockdown = more Covid cases = even less chance of other treatments on the NHS.
I often see failure to treat cancer etc cited as a consequence of lockdown but really it’s a consequence of the pandemic. Minimising covid cases is the only way to help these things recover. | | | |
| What is going on? on 07:47 - Oct 25 with 1234 views | 26_Paz |
Agree it’s just stupid. Moronic nonsense. If the shop is open you should be able to buy anything in it. This was the case in the first lock down. In the case of the vast majority the government is severely restricting their liberties for 17 days to remove a small risk they may get very mildly ill, it should at least have the decency to let them buy a book to read! |  |
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| What is going on? on 08:05 - Oct 25 with 1224 views | Pinewoodblue |
This 90% false positives is total nonsense. If the idiot won’t read the Lancet article perhaps he will consider this way of looking at it.
If we test 200,000 people in a day around 20,000 10% , show positive. If 90% (. Which would be 18,000) of those tests are false positives then only 2,000 are really positive tests which clearly couldn’t be right.
My understanding is that the test can pick up residual traces of the virus even after the virus can’t be transmitted to someone else but it is a very small number. |  |
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| What is going on? on 08:31 - Oct 25 with 1208 views | 26_Paz |
| What is going on? on 08:05 - Oct 25 by Pinewoodblue |
This 90% false positives is total nonsense. If the idiot won’t read the Lancet article perhaps he will consider this way of looking at it.
If we test 200,000 people in a day around 20,000 10% , show positive. If 90% (. Which would be 18,000) of those tests are false positives then only 2,000 are really positive tests which clearly couldn’t be right.
My understanding is that the test can pick up residual traces of the virus even after the virus can’t be transmitted to someone else but it is a very small number. |
There are a small number of false positives. Absolutely nothing like 90% though. | |
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| What is going on? on 08:32 - Oct 25 with 1207 views | MonkeyAlan |
Buy a Kindle. |  | | |
| What is going on? on 09:22 - Oct 25 with 1194 views | StokieBlue |
| What is going on? on 21:34 - Oct 24 by Bluesquid |
You posted - "without lockdown the cases would be massive"
Cases based on a test with a false positive return of over 90%.
Anyway, if that figure is wrong then Bojo and Raab don't come out of it at all well do they?
But lets run with that and say that they are wrong and also by a fair bit and we go instead with the 30% that The Times reported, that percentage return of false positives is still huge. |
This is what you do and you've repeated it time and again. You seize on one thing which agrees with what you want to say and then ignore all evidence to the contrary.
Sometimes people make mistakes and papers get things wrong. The false positives are nothing like the level you are claiming but you claim it because it supports your agenda. It's classic conspiracy thinking.
What is the endgame here? To restrict civil liberties and then not give them back? The government could have gone far stronger on restrictions if they had listened to SAGE. Furthermore are 90% of foreign governments in on it as well given they are implementing pretty much the same restrictions?
As for Boris and Raab - where have I said they are good or doing well? They are a shower.
SB [Post edited 25 Oct 2020 9:39]
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| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| What is going on? on 09:35 - Oct 25 with 1187 views | StokieBlue |
| What is going on? on 06:37 - Oct 25 by urbanblue |
'.....the excess deaths in the US are around 320,000 and that's with measures in place.'
You didn't provide evidence of this figure so I looked it up. According to the last update on the CDC website which was 23rd October the excess deaths are at 299,208 of which 198,081 were related to Covid 19. One third (!!) of these excess deaths are NOT related to Covid so surely most would be as a result of lockdown measures. Non treatment of other Health issues, Suicide etc
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6942e2.htm
So do lockdowns work?
Of course, we cannot know what the numbers would be without lockdowns but this is an example of how data can be taken and used either way as a confirmation of ones opinion whatever side of the debate they side with. |
Thanks for the link - it was late and I was going entirely from my memory of a podcast I listened to last week which outlined the numbers and seems I remembered the wrong figure and didn't check it as it was late last night.
This article from the Washington Post agrees with your figures but the analysis then states that many of other deaths are likely C19 related as well. The recording of death in the US is state-by-state without a Federal overseeing rule so it's not clear:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/coronavirus-excess-deaths/2020/10/20/1e1d7
As for whether lockdowns work, we can pretty safely assume the numbers would be far higher without lockdown (in the absence of a functioning track and trace like SK). We know this because we can see exponential growth in cases prior to the original lockdown and we don't after the lockdown. It's easy enough to extrapolate cases using an exponential model so see where we could have been without it.
On your final point I do agree data can be misinterpreted depending on where you sit on the debate but I don't think that is the case here because it's skewed due to the elimination of exponential expansion from the C19 numbers.
Certainly there is a discussion to be had around lockdowns but I don't think we can simply let the virus return to an R of 3 or 4 and then exponential expansion as that then basically puts everything with a known or unknown underlying health condition in danger plus others who might die directly from C19.
SB | |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| What is going on? on 09:37 - Oct 25 with 1184 views | StokieBlue |
| What is going on? on 07:47 - Oct 25 by 26_Paz |
Agree it’s just stupid. Moronic nonsense. If the shop is open you should be able to buy anything in it. This was the case in the first lock down. In the case of the vast majority the government is severely restricting their liberties for 17 days to remove a small risk they may get very mildly ill, it should at least have the decency to let them buy a book to read! |
Probably best to be clear this is the devolved Welsh government - the rules aren't the same for ships in the other countries of the UK.
It's designed to stop people going to the shops for reasons they don't need to. Big supermarkets now sell clothes, kitchen appliances, TVs etc - most people really don't need to buy these over the next 17 days thus eliminating those trips eliminates that vector of spread. It was also designed to protect small shops but the main reason I believe was to stop journeys.
Haven't really thought about whether I agree with it - just outlining the reasoning.
SB [Post edited 25 Oct 2020 9:51]
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| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| What is going on? on 10:00 - Oct 25 with 1173 views | jeera |
| What is going on? on 09:37 - Oct 25 by StokieBlue |
Probably best to be clear this is the devolved Welsh government - the rules aren't the same for ships in the other countries of the UK.
It's designed to stop people going to the shops for reasons they don't need to. Big supermarkets now sell clothes, kitchen appliances, TVs etc - most people really don't need to buy these over the next 17 days thus eliminating those trips eliminates that vector of spread. It was also designed to protect small shops but the main reason I believe was to stop journeys.
Haven't really thought about whether I agree with it - just outlining the reasoning.
SB [Post edited 25 Oct 2020 9:51]
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I can fully understand the concept of necessities only and the supermarkets can afford to close off non-essential aisles for now. They're thriving as it is through this.
But I can't help but feel for the smaller entities; bookshops et al, and would have hoped that those that exercise strict policies would be allowed to trade.
One-in, one-out etc may be the only solution long term but I suppose it's getting on top of the numbers again in the meantime.
We say we want to move towards buying less online and to support local retail more, but these measures are making it impossible at the moment.
I know there's no one to blame, I just feel sorry for the businesses who are having a hard time. |  |
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| What is going on? on 12:20 - Oct 25 with 1145 views | Bluesquid |
| What is going on? on 08:05 - Oct 25 by Pinewoodblue |
This 90% false positives is total nonsense. If the idiot won’t read the Lancet article perhaps he will consider this way of looking at it.
If we test 200,000 people in a day around 20,000 10% , show positive. If 90% (. Which would be 18,000) of those tests are false positives then only 2,000 are really positive tests which clearly couldn’t be right.
My understanding is that the test can pick up residual traces of the virus even after the virus can’t be transmitted to someone else but it is a very small number. |
Maybe the idiot should re read my post in particular the last 2 lines.
Failing that the idiot should then proceed to read the Lancet article that the idiot himself promoted.
"The UK operational false positive rate is unknown. There are no published studies on the operational false positive rate of any national COVID-19 testing programme." [Post edited 25 Oct 2020 12:25]
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| What is going on? on 12:31 - Oct 25 with 1132 views | Bluesquid |
| What is going on? on 09:22 - Oct 25 by StokieBlue |
This is what you do and you've repeated it time and again. You seize on one thing which agrees with what you want to say and then ignore all evidence to the contrary.
Sometimes people make mistakes and papers get things wrong. The false positives are nothing like the level you are claiming but you claim it because it supports your agenda. It's classic conspiracy thinking.
What is the endgame here? To restrict civil liberties and then not give them back? The government could have gone far stronger on restrictions if they had listened to SAGE. Furthermore are 90% of foreign governments in on it as well given they are implementing pretty much the same restrictions?
As for Boris and Raab - where have I said they are good or doing well? They are a shower.
SB [Post edited 25 Oct 2020 9:39]
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"But lets run with that and say that they are wrong and also by a fair bit and we go instead with the 30% that The Times reported, that percentage return of false positives is still huge."
You do realize why i included the above don't you Stokie?
It was there for you to address, not skip over and ignore but top marks for doing just that. [Post edited 25 Oct 2020 12:33]
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| What is going on? on 12:39 - Oct 25 with 1124 views | Bluesquid |
| What is going on? on 08:05 - Oct 25 by Pinewoodblue |
This 90% false positives is total nonsense. If the idiot won’t read the Lancet article perhaps he will consider this way of looking at it.
If we test 200,000 people in a day around 20,000 10% , show positive. If 90% (. Which would be 18,000) of those tests are false positives then only 2,000 are really positive tests which clearly couldn’t be right.
My understanding is that the test can pick up residual traces of the virus even after the virus can’t be transmitted to someone else but it is a very small number. |
My understanding is that there is no guarantee that the test is even reliable, effective or accurate.
Hell, the test is not even guaranteed to be suitable. | | | |
| What is going on? on 12:39 - Oct 25 with 1124 views | WestStanderLaLaLa |
| What is going on? on 12:20 - Oct 25 by Bluesquid |
Maybe the idiot should re read my post in particular the last 2 lines.
Failing that the idiot should then proceed to read the Lancet article that the idiot himself promoted.
"The UK operational false positive rate is unknown. There are no published studies on the operational false positive rate of any national COVID-19 testing programme." [Post edited 25 Oct 2020 12:25]
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So you agree it’s not 90% or 30% then. Glad we got that sorted. |  |
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| What is going on? on 12:42 - Oct 25 with 1121 views | StokieBlue |
| What is going on? on 12:31 - Oct 25 by Bluesquid |
"But lets run with that and say that they are wrong and also by a fair bit and we go instead with the 30% that The Times reported, that percentage return of false positives is still huge."
You do realize why i included the above don't you Stokie?
It was there for you to address, not skip over and ignore but top marks for doing just that. [Post edited 25 Oct 2020 12:33]
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You're such a hypocrite - you skip over nearly everything posted to you because you have a specific agenda point you want to push.
I didn't respond to it directly because it's false. I did address it more generally by saying people get things wrong but you then seize on it and never let it go.
Let's highlight a precise example. You chose a quote from the provided articles which supports your position whilst totally ignoring this sentence which is more precise with regards to what is being discussed and which basically shows your positions to be false:
"The current rate of operational false-positive swab tests in the UK is unknown; preliminary estimates show it could be somewhere between 0·8% and 4·0%."
Please explain why you did this? Probably best not to criticise others when you are so transparently cherry-picking things which suit your position.
SB | |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| What is going on? on 12:50 - Oct 25 with 1115 views | Bluesquid |
| What is going on? on 12:39 - Oct 25 by WestStanderLaLaLa |
So you agree it’s not 90% or 30% then. Glad we got that sorted. |
Prime minister Boris Johnson wrong re 90%?
UK Home Secretary Dominic Raab wrong re 90%?
Doesn't instill much confidence regarding Government Covid handling and information does it?
One wonders what else they are completely wrong on as well which is probably a hell of a lot and which is doing great damage to peoples lives all over England. | | | |
| What is going on? on 12:53 - Oct 25 with 1113 views | StokieBlue |
| What is going on? on 12:50 - Oct 25 by Bluesquid |
Prime minister Boris Johnson wrong re 90%?
UK Home Secretary Dominic Raab wrong re 90%?
Doesn't instill much confidence regarding Government Covid handling and information does it?
One wonders what else they are completely wrong on as well which is probably a hell of a lot and which is doing great damage to peoples lives all over England. |
You're trying to change the narrative here because your original point has been proven incorrect.
Nobody has said the government has spired confidence or even done well. They have taken issue with your incorrect facts/evidence.
You're now switching it round to criticise the government which is a totally different point and one that I think a majority of people would agree with you on.
Will you accept your original post was false? We don't want others believing you after all.
SB | |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| What is going on? on 13:01 - Oct 25 with 1112 views | Bluesquid |
| What is going on? on 12:42 - Oct 25 by StokieBlue |
You're such a hypocrite - you skip over nearly everything posted to you because you have a specific agenda point you want to push.
I didn't respond to it directly because it's false. I did address it more generally by saying people get things wrong but you then seize on it and never let it go.
Let's highlight a precise example. You chose a quote from the provided articles which supports your position whilst totally ignoring this sentence which is more precise with regards to what is being discussed and which basically shows your positions to be false:
"The current rate of operational false-positive swab tests in the UK is unknown; preliminary estimates show it could be somewhere between 0·8% and 4·0%."
Please explain why you did this? Probably best not to criticise others when you are so transparently cherry-picking things which suit your position.
SB |
More estimates?
lol, it's estimates that have got us into this mess we all find ourselves now.
Think we have all had just about enough of estimations and modelling.
"There are no published studies" means no published studies.
We could on the other hand all just IMAGINE how thing's may turn out... | | | |
| What is going on? on 13:04 - Oct 25 with 1105 views | Bluesquid |
| What is going on? on 12:53 - Oct 25 by StokieBlue |
You're trying to change the narrative here because your original point has been proven incorrect.
Nobody has said the government has spired confidence or even done well. They have taken issue with your incorrect facts/evidence.
You're now switching it round to criticise the government which is a totally different point and one that I think a majority of people would agree with you on.
Will you accept your original post was false? We don't want others believing you after all.
SB |
Don't be silly and see my follow on post.
Also -
My understanding is that there is no guarantee that the test is even reliable, effective or accurate.
Hell, the test is not even guaranteed to be suitable. | | | |
| What is going on? on 13:07 - Oct 25 with 1104 views | StokieBlue |
| What is going on? on 13:01 - Oct 25 by Bluesquid |
More estimates?
lol, it's estimates that have got us into this mess we all find ourselves now.
Think we have all had just about enough of estimations and modelling.
"There are no published studies" means no published studies.
We could on the other hand all just IMAGINE how thing's may turn out... |
It's a range of estimates, that's how science works in regards to these things. Any one number is also going to be an estimate.
You once again return to petty semantics when directly challenged with evidence that counters your point.
I've made my point - enjoy the rest of your days trolling.
SB | |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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