| US Election Map Prediction 12:38 - Oct 30 with 2983 views | tractordownsouth |
Thought I'd start one of these just so we can compare how we think the results are going to go, rather than the general chat on Spruce's thread. No prizes, just the glory of winning.
Here's the link to make your own map - and none of this tilt/lean/tossup rubbish, stick your necks out! : https://www.270towin.com/
Edit: I can never work out how to link photos on here, hence the tweet
I reckon Biden flips Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Nebraska 2nd district.
[Post edited 30 Oct 2020 12:43]
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| US Election Map Prediction on 13:26 - Oct 30 with 1945 views | Mookamoo |
Trump loses Florida.
Its still 291 - 247 even if he doesn't. |  | | |
| US Election Map Prediction on 13:41 - Oct 30 with 1912 views | SpruceMoose |
And here's my tighter race map.
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| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| US Election Map Prediction on 13:42 - Oct 30 with 1907 views | StokieBlue |
| US Election Map Prediction on 13:41 - Oct 30 by SpruceMoose |
And here's my tighter race map.
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Let's hope that's very wrong as you're only one "tight" state flip from Trump second term.
SB |  | | |
| US Election Map Prediction on 13:49 - Oct 30 with 1893 views | SpruceMoose |
| US Election Map Prediction on 13:42 - Oct 30 by StokieBlue |
Let's hope that's very wrong as you're only one "tight" state flip from Trump second term.
SB |
Quite. I couldn't quite bring myself to do a Trump win map so this is as close as I'll go! For what it's worth, I expect the real result to be closer to my first optimistic map.
I keep reading about margin of error being +/- 4.4%, and as a result I've been seeing a lot of doom and gloom online that the MOE means Trump is closer than it looks. But doesn't that also overlook that maybe he's even further behind? | |
| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| US Election Map Prediction on 13:54 - Oct 30 with 1879 views | StokieBlue |
| US Election Map Prediction on 13:49 - Oct 30 by SpruceMoose |
Quite. I couldn't quite bring myself to do a Trump win map so this is as close as I'll go! For what it's worth, I expect the real result to be closer to my first optimistic map.
I keep reading about margin of error being +/- 4.4%, and as a result I've been seeing a lot of doom and gloom online that the MOE means Trump is closer than it looks. But doesn't that also overlook that maybe he's even further behind? |
Indeed, I think it's fairly natural for people to take the margin of error in the direction which favours them.
Given the number of votes which were made early I don't see how anything could really close the gap for Trump - a lot of those votes would seem to be in the bag for Biden.
SB | | | |
| US Election Map Prediction on 13:56 - Oct 30 with 1877 views | J2BLUE |
I promise I didn't do this deliberately...I was left with one state. Look at how it's fallen.
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| US Election Map Prediction on 13:57 - Oct 30 with 1865 views | SpruceMoose |
| US Election Map Prediction on 13:56 - Oct 30 by J2BLUE |
I promise I didn't do this deliberately...I was left with one state. Look at how it's fallen.
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You're not too far off because I think PA is the tipping point as to who will win 37% of the time. | |
| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| US Election Map Prediction on 14:00 - Oct 30 with 1853 views | J2BLUE |
| US Election Map Prediction on 13:57 - Oct 30 by SpruceMoose |
You're not too far off because I think PA is the tipping point as to who will win 37% of the time. |
The closer it gets the more I think he might have a chance. This site collectively always seem to overestimate the better option. Hmm. Worried now. | |
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| US Election Map Prediction on 14:02 - Oct 30 with 1851 views | SpruceMoose |
| US Election Map Prediction on 13:54 - Oct 30 by StokieBlue |
Indeed, I think it's fairly natural for people to take the margin of error in the direction which favours them.
Given the number of votes which were made early I don't see how anything could really close the gap for Trump - a lot of those votes would seem to be in the bag for Biden.
SB |
My head, the memory of every person I've spoken to since 2016, and the Blue Wave 2018 mid term elections says Biden wins comfortably.
The memory of 2016 makes me have less faith in that feeling than I should do.
Sod it. I'll go on the line. We'll have the trifecta. Biden President. Democrat Senate. Democrat House. | |
| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| US Election Map Prediction on 14:07 - Oct 30 with 1833 views | SpruceMoose |
| US Election Map Prediction on 14:00 - Oct 30 by J2BLUE |
The closer it gets the more I think he might have a chance. This site collectively always seem to overestimate the better option. Hmm. Worried now. |
Well, if it makes you feel any better, it isn't getting closer, Trump's trend falling away. Back in 2016 it was the opposite. Clinton's lead was eroded away over the final month.
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| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| US Election Map Prediction on 14:08 - Oct 30 with 1829 views | J2BLUE |
| US Election Map Prediction on 14:02 - Oct 30 by SpruceMoose |
My head, the memory of every person I've spoken to since 2016, and the Blue Wave 2018 mid term elections says Biden wins comfortably.
The memory of 2016 makes me have less faith in that feeling than I should do.
Sod it. I'll go on the line. We'll have the trifecta. Biden President. Democrat Senate. Democrat House. |
and then...
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| US Election Map Prediction on 14:14 - Oct 30 with 1807 views | J2BLUE |
| US Election Map Prediction on 14:09 - Oct 30 by SpruceMoose |
For the first time in my life, I'm genuinely triggered!
The English have a long appreciation of lost penalty shootouts, last minute goals scored against, elections lost from the jaws of victory.
This one will be different J2! [Post edited 30 Oct 2020 14:10]
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Pray to your gods people. We need all the help we can get. | |
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| US Election Map Prediction on 14:20 - Oct 30 with 1789 views | SpruceMoose |
| US Election Map Prediction on 14:14 - Oct 30 by J2BLUE |
Pray to your gods people. We need all the help we can get. |
Can't even buy a machine gun in Walmart now. They've stopped selling them prior to the election... | |
| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| US Election Map Prediction on 14:22 - Oct 30 with 1784 views | ElderGrizzly |
| US Election Map Prediction on 14:08 - Oct 30 by J2BLUE |
and then...
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Indeed. Already pressuring the Supreme Court
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| US Election Map Prediction on 14:25 - Oct 30 with 1775 views | DinDjarin |
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| US Election Map Prediction on 14:27 - Oct 30 with 1764 views | SpruceMoose |
| US Election Map Prediction on 14:25 - Oct 30 by DinDjarin |
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Florida going blue while Wisconsin went red would be classic Florida man! | |
| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| US Election Map Prediction on 14:29 - Oct 30 with 1762 views | ElderGrizzly |
Here’s mine
<blockquote class="imgur-embed-pub" lang="en" data-id="a/5KQwQta"><a href="//imgur.com/5KQwQta"></a></blockquote><script async src="//s.imgur.com/min/embed.js" charset="utf-8"></script> [Post edited 30 Oct 2020 14:36]
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| US Election Map Prediction on 14:33 - Oct 30 with 1742 views | SpruceMoose |
In a sane world... (obviously WV is beyond redemption).
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| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| US Election Map Prediction on 14:34 - Oct 30 with 1738 views | SpruceMoose |
| US Election Map Prediction on 14:29 - Oct 30 by ElderGrizzly |
Here’s mine
<blockquote class="imgur-embed-pub" lang="en" data-id="a/5KQwQta"><a href="//imgur.com/5KQwQta"></a></blockquote><script async src="//s.imgur.com/min/embed.js" charset="utf-8"></script> [Post edited 30 Oct 2020 14:36]
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I got you bud.
 [Post edited 30 Oct 2020 14:35]
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| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| US Election Map Prediction on 14:42 - Oct 30 with 1716 views | Bent_double |
| US Election Map Prediction on 13:54 - Oct 30 by StokieBlue |
Indeed, I think it's fairly natural for people to take the margin of error in the direction which favours them.
Given the number of votes which were made early I don't see how anything could really close the gap for Trump - a lot of those votes would seem to be in the bag for Biden.
SB |
So, if the majority of mail-in votes are for Biden, as most people are saying, then come polling day, are we just going to get images of flag/gun waving Trump-supporting Republicans at polling stations across the country basically saying,"look everyone's here to vote for Trump, no Democrats at all" - only then to find out that isn't the case when the polls close - leading to even more shouts from Trumpy of a rigged election? |  |
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| US Election Map Prediction on 14:44 - Oct 30 with 1713 views | jaseitfc2015 |
| US Election Map Prediction on 13:41 - Oct 30 by SpruceMoose |
And here's my tighter race map.
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I fancy Georgia to flip blue, possibly North Carolina too
Wisconsin & Michigan are as good as safe states for Biden at this point in my opinion.
Trumps only viable route is florida + arizona + pennsylvania, which will be hard to pull off & even if he does he has to hope Biden doesn't trip him up in Georgia or NC , which is likely. |  | | |
| US Election Map Prediction on 14:45 - Oct 30 with 1710 views | StokieBlue |
| US Election Map Prediction on 14:42 - Oct 30 by Bent_double |
So, if the majority of mail-in votes are for Biden, as most people are saying, then come polling day, are we just going to get images of flag/gun waving Trump-supporting Republicans at polling stations across the country basically saying,"look everyone's here to vote for Trump, no Democrats at all" - only then to find out that isn't the case when the polls close - leading to even more shouts from Trumpy of a rigged election? |
Yes.
That is almost certainly what is going to happen.
SB | | | |
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