| Yanky election forecast 13:51 - Nov 2 with 15947 views | bluelagos |
Glory of being named Twtd political guru of 2020 to the winner. A virtual plate of J2's eggs to the loser.
https://www.270towin.com/
(Biden - Trump)
Harry10 369 - 169
Spruce 360 - 178
Tangledupin 357 - 181
ElderGrizzly 354 - 184
Kropotkin 348 - 188
ItfcJoe 348 - 190
XOYO 345 - 193
NQueensland 344 - 194
WWZombie 335 - 203
Footers 326 - 212
Lagos 324 - 214
Mookamoo 320 - 218
ArnoldM 306 - 232
Rommy 302 - 236
Wicklow 297 - 241
C-HealyIsapleasure 294 -244
Tractordownsouth 290 - 248
Ftnfwest 290-248
TonyTown 286 - 252
BABlue 282 - 256
PointofBlue 279-259
Glassers 279 - 259
Trequart* 278 - 260
DinDjarin 277 - 261
Pinewoodblue 276 - 261
Gordon 275 - 263 with Trump throwing the teddy out the pram
Ryorry 272 - 266
J2Blue 259 - 259 with Pennsylvannia going to penalties.
Bankster 267 - 271
Swanners 265 - 273
BlueGold 264 - 274
Pinewood 260 - 278
TheTrueBlue 260 -278
[Post edited 4 Nov 2020 14:46]
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| Yanky election forecast on 16:08 - Nov 2 with 1414 views | SpruceMoose |
| Yanky election forecast on 16:05 - Nov 2 by 26_Paz |
Yeah, and if you bothered to read my posts rather than just seeing my name and immediately opening fire you would see that I agreed with that point Romford made. |
Like I said, thanks for your input. |  |
| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| Yanky election forecast on 16:10 - Nov 2 with 1412 views | SpruceMoose |
| Yanky election forecast on 16:05 - Nov 2 by footers |
Very true. I would certianly be a lot more worried about another Trump victory were covid not in play. Aside from the hardcore, his record on it really is shambolic. Add to that the racial divisions he keenly stoked, I'm not sure how any moderate could vote for him. Maybe they won't come out for Biden, but hopefully a sense of some decency will stop it going to Trump. |
Definitely.
He's an idiot. Covid could have been a gift for him in an election year. He just needed to listen to the scientists, tell people to wear a mask, act presidential, stay out of everyone's way and do the right thing. But him being him he went down the insane route and jaffed it all up.
Madness. Obama was right. He is jealous of the attention Covid gets. | |
| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| Yanky election forecast on 16:11 - Nov 2 with 1365 views | 26_Paz |
| Yanky election forecast on 16:08 - Nov 2 by SpruceMoose |
Like I said, thanks for your input. |
Whatever. I just don’t have the energy for you today. |  |
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| Yanky election forecast on 16:12 - Nov 2 with 1404 views | ArnoldMoorhen |
I'm going Biden 306 Trump 232
Eventually.
It's going to take until at least Thursday for Biden to definitively cross 270, and a week after that for all results to be clear, possibly longer for every vote to be counted.
Court cases ongoing in Texas over whether over 120,000 votes which have already been cast in drive-through polling stations will even count.
Many States not allowing Mail In votes which arrive after Tuesday: Democrats may contest that if they then lose tight races.
Many States allowing Mail In votes which arrive after Tuesday: Republicans will contest that regardless if Trump is looking down and out.
The possibility of legal action over voter suppression if Trump supporters with guns turn up to "monitor the vote" in Democrat strongholds in Southern States.
And the potential for Electoral College shenanigans is there again, as it was in 2016.
It's going to be very messy.
The Senate vote is the really interesting one:
For those that don't know, the Senate isn't elected all at once, like the British parliament. Roughly a third of seats (35) are up for grabs, and many of them have Republican incumbents, so give the Democrats a chance to flip the Senate.
Explained here: https://www.greenmatters.com/p/what-senate-seats-are-up-2020
Although polls suggest the Democrats can do it, I fear that the Republicans will j u s t keep hold of the Senate, with some Republican voters not voting for Trump, but voting for the Republican Senate candidate. Democrats need 51-49 on Senate to gain it, which will be enough for Biden to implement his manifesto without real problems, but need a 60-40 majority to make real systemic change by reforming the Supreme Court or Electoral College through amendments to the Constitution. |  | | |
| Yanky election forecast on 16:13 - Nov 2 with 1400 views | SpruceMoose |
Tell you what, to make it a bit more fun, if I am within +/- 5 points of the final result I'll donate fifty quid to the charity of TWTDs choice. | |
| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| Yanky election forecast on 16:18 - Nov 2 with 1387 views | Pinewoodblue |
| Yanky election forecast on 15:53 - Nov 2 by footers |
I really don't think that's true about 2016. Populism was in full swing in the States and much of the world by that point, exacerbated by FOX et al, the underground news media and social media.
Anyone who represented any kind of establishment figure by that point was bound to be painted as such and lose.
I agree that Clinton was a woeful candidate, but I really don't think there was much else anyone could do against the irrationality of the Trump vote. |
A lot of Democrats last time exercised their right to write in the name of a third party. Many more Democrats couldn’t bring themselves to vote for Clinton.
Democrats failed to get their support out in sufficient numbers and paid the price.
Trumps vote will holdup but more Democrats will vote this time, Biden will win on the popular vote, but so did Hilary Clinton it is where your support lives that matters.
You have to win the electoral college. |  |
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| Yanky election forecast on 16:18 - Nov 2 with 1387 views | Eireannach_gorm |
| Yanky election forecast on 15:47 - Nov 2 by The_Romford_Blue |
In the last debate when the question person (forget their name.. the mediator type person for debates) asked him directly ‘have you ever said you would ban fracking’. And Biden outright lied and said he’s never said that.
To which there’s literally 10 examples of him saying on video that he would ban fracking. That’ll cost him Pennsylvania in my opinion. No idea what the odds are for that but I’ll definitely have a look before tomorrow |
Telling lies is clearly a disadvantage in this contest. |  | | |
| Yanky election forecast on 16:21 - Nov 2 with 1378 views | footers |
| Yanky election forecast on 16:18 - Nov 2 by Pinewoodblue |
A lot of Democrats last time exercised their right to write in the name of a third party. Many more Democrats couldn’t bring themselves to vote for Clinton.
Democrats failed to get their support out in sufficient numbers and paid the price.
Trumps vote will holdup but more Democrats will vote this time, Biden will win on the popular vote, but so did Hilary Clinton it is where your support lives that matters.
You have to win the electoral college. |
I really don't think Trump will win the college either, and by quite some margin, but we shall see. |  |
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| Yanky election forecast on 16:32 - Nov 2 with 1368 views | SpruceMoose |
| Yanky election forecast on 16:21 - Nov 2 by footers |
I really don't think Trump will win the college either, and by quite some margin, but we shall see. |
Nationwide, more than 91.6 million ballots already cast represent about 67% of the more than 136.5 million ballots cast in the 2016 presidential election.  
In many swing states, votes cast so far are either in excess of TOTAL votes cast in 2016 or very close to being so.
Turnout so far has been insane.
Now, different opinions exist as to whether this benefits Democrats or Republicans.
But we have to wonder, what is driving the fact that somewhere like Texas has added 1.6 million new voters since 2016, and has had 735,000 more people voting early this year than they had vote in the entire 2016 presidential election, including on Election Day.
What I would say is, how likely is it that a President that has never enjoyed an approval rating higher than 50% has suddenly found a way to energise new and independent voters in the middle of a failed attempt to control a pandemic that has killed 230,000 people? | |
| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| Yanky election forecast on 16:56 - Nov 2 with 1335 views | Tangledupin_Blue |
| Yanky election forecast on 14:02 - Nov 2 by Pinewoodblue |
It will be a lot closer than EG predicts. He was certain he would be gone in months and was surprised when people were saying Trump had a good chance of a second term.
Guess the FCO, or whatever they call themselves these days will never learn.
Biden to win by 15, after Supreme court ruling first week of January. |
The only way he could win by 15 is if a third party takes one or more of the electoral college votes. If all of the ec votes go to either Biden or Trump then one of them will win by an even number or it will be a tie. |  |
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| Yanky election forecast on 16:58 - Nov 2 with 1331 views | bluelagos |
| Yanky election forecast on 16:56 - Nov 2 by Tangledupin_Blue |
The only way he could win by 15 is if a third party takes one or more of the electoral college votes. If all of the ec votes go to either Biden or Trump then one of them will win by an even number or it will be a tie. |
That's nerdtastic!
You playing? | |
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| Great idea, well played that man..... on 16:59 - Nov 2 with 1323 views | Bloots |
| Yanky election forecast on 16:13 - Nov 2 by SpruceMoose |
Tell you what, to make it a bit more fun, if I am within +/- 5 points of the final result I'll donate fifty quid to the charity of TWTDs choice. |
https://www.theconservativefoundation.co.uk/ |  |
| "The sooner he comes back the better, this place has been a disaster without him" - TWTD User (July 2025) |
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| Great idea, well played that man..... on 17:01 - Nov 2 with 1320 views | bluelagos |
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| Yanky election forecast on 17:02 - Nov 2 with 1314 views | DinDjarin |
| Yanky election forecast on 16:56 - Nov 2 by Tangledupin_Blue |
The only way he could win by 15 is if a third party takes one or more of the electoral college votes. If all of the ec votes go to either Biden or Trump then one of them will win by an even number or it will be a tie. |
The weirdest outcome is that we have Trump as President and Harris as Vice President.
I kid you not it is a possibility. |  | | |
| Yanky election forecast on 17:03 - Nov 2 with 1303 views | bluelagos |
| Yanky election forecast on 17:02 - Nov 2 by DinDjarin |
The weirdest outcome is that we have Trump as President and Harris as Vice President.
I kid you not it is a possibility. |
Would be funny. How does it happen? | |
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| Yanky election forecast on 17:05 - Nov 2 with 1302 views | DinDjarin |
| Yanky election forecast on 17:03 - Nov 2 by bluelagos |
Would be funny. How does it happen? |
Its a stretch that it would happen but possible nonetheless.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/07/opinions/trump-win-presidency-harris-vp-opini
If you cant be bothered to read the article in the event of a tie on electoral college seats then the following could happen.
In a contingent election, the House of Representatives is charged with determining the winner of the presidency while the Senate selects the vice president. [Post edited 2 Nov 2020 17:10]
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| Great idea, well played that man..... on 17:08 - Nov 2 with 1285 views | SpruceMoose |
I'm just going to skip to the 'Become a Benefactor' part. | |
| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| Yanky election forecast on 17:14 - Nov 2 with 1265 views | ArnoldMoorhen |
| Yanky election forecast on 16:56 - Nov 2 by Tangledupin_Blue |
The only way he could win by 15 is if a third party takes one or more of the electoral college votes. If all of the ec votes go to either Biden or Trump then one of them will win by an even number or it will be a tie. |
Or a Faithless Elector defies the Supreme Court ruling and abstains.
#supernerd
#anythingcouldhappen
#agoodtimetobealawyerinamerica | | | |
| It would be "epic bantz" though.... on 17:16 - Nov 2 with 1262 views | Bloots |
| Great idea, well played that man..... on 17:08 - Nov 2 by SpruceMoose |
I'm just going to skip to the 'Become a Benefactor' part. |
....wouldn't it?
In fact we could set it up across the whole forum.
Some sort of forfeit system for gross stupidity/abuse/bad grammar or whatever.
You, Footers and the rest of your crew donate to the Tories, Paz, Airliner and that mob chuck a few quid to Labour.
Sweardown.
Lambert out. | |
| "The sooner he comes back the better, this place has been a disaster without him" - TWTD User (July 2025) |
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| It would be "epic bantz" though.... on 17:19 - Nov 2 with 1249 views | footers |
| It would be "epic bantz" though.... on 17:16 - Nov 2 by Bloots |
....wouldn't it?
In fact we could set it up across the whole forum.
Some sort of forfeit system for gross stupidity/abuse/bad grammar or whatever.
You, Footers and the rest of your crew donate to the Tories, Paz, Airliner and that mob chuck a few quid to Labour.
Sweardown.
Lambert out. |
With the rest of the posters' donations going to the injured jockeys? | |
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| The "anti horseracing/gambling" brigade.... on 17:22 - Nov 2 with 1232 views | Bloots |
| It would be "epic bantz" though.... on 17:19 - Nov 2 by footers |
With the rest of the posters' donations going to the injured jockeys? |
....could make that donation.
The Lambert outers could donate to a fund for his Xmas present. | |
| "The sooner he comes back the better, this place has been a disaster without him" - TWTD User (July 2025) |
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| Yanky election forecast on 17:28 - Nov 2 with 1215 views | Tangledupin_Blue |
| Yanky election forecast on 16:58 - Nov 2 by bluelagos |
That's nerdtastic!
You playing? |
Yep...
Biden 357 Trump 181
Alabama, T 9
Alaska, T 3
Arizona, B 11
Arkansas, T 6
California, B 55
Colorado, B 9
Connecticut, B 7
Delaware, B 3
D.C., B 3
Florida, B 29
Georgia, B 16
Hawaii, B 4
Idaho, T 4
Illinois, B 20
Indiana, T 11
Iowa, B 6
Kansas, T 6
Kentucky, T 8
Louisiana, T 8
Maine, B 4
Maryland, B 10
Massachusetts, B 11
Michigan, B 16
Minnesota, B 10
Mississippi, T 6
Missouri, T 10
Montana, T 3
Nebraska, B 1, T 4
Nevada, B 6
New Hampshire, B 4
New Jersey, B 14
New Mexico, B 5
New York, B 29
North Carolina, B 15
North Dakota, T 3
Ohio, T 18
Oklahoma, T 7
Oregon, B 7
Pennsylvania, B 20
Rhode Island, B 4
South Carolina, T 9
South Dakota, T 3
Tennessee, T 11
Texas, T 38
Utah, T 6
Vermont, B 3
Virginia, B 13
Washington, B 12
West Virginia, T 5
Wisconsin, B 10
Wyoming, T 3 | |
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| Yanky election forecast on 17:31 - Nov 2 with 1207 views | ArnoldMoorhen |
| Yanky election forecast on 15:26 - Nov 2 by footers |
Hey, don't forget that we're Best Forum Friends this week. I won't put you wrong.
I'm helping to cover it for work, so currently working out the best way to pull an all-nighter and still be semi-functional UK time Wednesday.
It's been a while since I've done any Class As but this might be an excuse :) |
Don't pull an all-nighter. Go to bed as close to 9pm as possible and set an alarm for 5am.
Early "results" won't tell us anything. There are going to be massive delays on final tallies in most States. It will all be modelling and extrapolation from the districts that do report early, comparing with 2016. But without having the early votes counted, in most cases, which renders it a fairly futile exercise. | | | |
| The "anti horseracing/gambling" brigade.... on 17:31 - Nov 2 with 1204 views | The_Romford_Blue |
| The "anti horseracing/gambling" brigade.... on 17:22 - Nov 2 by Bloots |
....could make that donation.
The Lambert outers could donate to a fund for his Xmas present. |
This is superb from you Blootsy |  |
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| Yanky election forecast on 17:35 - Nov 2 with 1199 views | footers |
| Yanky election forecast on 17:31 - Nov 2 by ArnoldMoorhen |
Don't pull an all-nighter. Go to bed as close to 9pm as possible and set an alarm for 5am.
Early "results" won't tell us anything. There are going to be massive delays on final tallies in most States. It will all be modelling and extrapolation from the districts that do report early, comparing with 2016. But without having the early votes counted, in most cases, which renders it a fairly futile exercise. |
I work in markets for a US-based company so don't have much choice in the matter, unfortunately. We'll be reporting all night on any small twist and turn that spooks traders! | |
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