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The future of ITFC ... 16:04 - Nov 19 with 514 viewsEl_Fenix

ITFC has become a Zombie club. It needs to adapt to hugely changed circumstances (e.g. the Premier league sucking up all the money, the League 1 salary cap, and the impact of Covid); but its ability to adapt is constrained by debt of around £100 million, a lack of vision, a diminished culture, and a decaying infrastructure. Since Joe Royle left in 2006 (by mutual consent, having reached the playoffs 'only' twice, with a winning percentage of 'only' 42.6%) the club has become a graveyard for managers.

The next two years will involve difficult adjustments to the £2.5 million salary cap. Players who have value in the transfer market will be sold. No transfer fees will be paid, few contract options will be taken up, and few contracts will be extended. This need not be a disaster, since league-wide financial constraints will make many useful players available as free agents and salary expectations will be lower. In order to prosper, teams will need to wheel and deal effectively in the new labor market and use more young players. Successful managers will be those who 'do more with less'.

There is hope for ITFC in this scenario. In the context of League 1, the club will be a 'whale'. Assuming that support does not decline precipitously, players' salaries will be more than covered by sales of season tickets. The club could easily operate with positive cash flow (i.e. have positive net earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization); and it would have the financial resources to implement a coherent vision, establish a renewed culture, and invest in infrastructure. Focused investments in fitness and conditioning and sports medicine should lead to better on-field performances, fewer injuries, and faster recovery from injuries; and the club would have significant advantages in recruiting free agents. In this rosy scenario, ITFC should, at a minimum, be capable of yo-yoing between League 1 and the championship. At some point, a trip to the championship would be sustained. Then, even better things could happen ...

The core problem is that an unhealthy co-dependency inhibits a successful transition from the Zombie State to the Rosy Scenario. While ITFC was becoming Marcus Evans' tar baby, Marcus Evans was becoming ITFC's tar baby. The 'tar' is the £100 million debt that can not be repaid by ITFC nor written off by Marcus Evans.

Can the club and its owner be disentangled? Perhaps, if Evans to agree to a debt-for-equity swap, in which he would write off the debt that he and his companies hold, in exchange for a modest amount of cash (say 10p on the £) plus a significant amount of non-voting, non-cumulative preferred stock whose value would become significant if the club were to operate profitably.

Another important requirement for a successful transition would be to hire a manager who 'can do more less'. This would not be Paul Lambert - but there are plenty of other candidates.


ITFC shall rise like a phoenix from the ashes of its long decline!

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The future of ITFC ... on 23:59 - Nov 19 with 349 viewseddiespearitt03

Going by the 163 viewings and not one reply you can correctly guess that people are tired talking about the fate of this great club. Evans will carry on "anonymously" running this club into the ground whilst always hoping to pick up a few bob along the way. When the club sinks further and of no value we can all guess Evans will find a way to relinquish his strangle hold on this club.
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The future of ITFC ... on 00:42 - Nov 20 with 334 viewsDarth_Koont

Missed this the first time round but a cracking post.

I think you nail the underlying situation. And while we’ve done well to capitalize on young players and their development, that’s not enough to sort out everything else.

What we need is momentum (with or without luck). Because that will build success (and attract money), and exponentially help us develop and challenge higher up the pyramid.

I’m not sure you can put that forward momentum down to the players or even the manager. I think that’s the result of many good decisions paying off at the right time - to subsequently be reinforced by other good decisions.

I’m not entirely sure that Evans can do this because he doesn’t seem to stick with the sort of structured, aligned approach that will produce it. Often, I think the strategy has been all about getting lucky one season.

Having said that, he’s been managing a decline and I think that a good season and promotion (even in League One) could give us that injection of momentum that was so tough to build in the Championship.

The question for me is whether Lambert is the manager to capture and capitalize on momentum from League One like he did with Norwich or whether he’s a manager who really needs things to be moving in the right direction already.

Ultimately, we just have to see a team getting stronger and better and we’re still not seeing that clearly enough. A solid and coherent next 10 games to add to the good points haul and maybe I can start believing in that.
[Post edited 20 Nov 2020 1:02]

Pronouns: He/Him

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