Oxford Covid vaccine just 70% effective 07:12 - Nov 23 with 4554 views | ElderGrizzly | Better than flu, but obviously an issue when rival products are 95% But hey, its cheaper [Post edited 23 Nov 2020 7:17]
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Oxford Covid vaccine just 70% effective on 09:03 - Nov 23 with 2521 views | Pinewoodblue |
Oxford Covid vaccine just 70% effective on 07:51 - Nov 23 by ElderGrizzly | The point is even with the vaccine we’ll need some kind of restrictions until we hit around 80/90% of the population. All depends on how good the Government is now in distribution |
When did they decide that those deemed vulnerable, on medical grounds, would have to wait until their age group was vaccinated? Seems a strange decision. I will be eligible for vaccine before my wife, as although she is more at risk of complications, falls into a younger age group. There are vulnerable people under thirty who, it appears, will have to wait. |  |
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Oxford Covid vaccine just 70% effective on 09:07 - Nov 23 with 2510 views | bluelagos |
Oxford Covid vaccine just 70% effective on 09:03 - Nov 23 by Pinewoodblue | When did they decide that those deemed vulnerable, on medical grounds, would have to wait until their age group was vaccinated? Seems a strange decision. I will be eligible for vaccine before my wife, as although she is more at risk of complications, falls into a younger age group. There are vulnerable people under thirty who, it appears, will have to wait. |
Have they? Didnt pick that up from Grizzly's posts. Would make no sense at all to vaccinate a healthy 55 year old before a vulnerable 45 year old. |  |
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Oxford Covid vaccine just 70% effective on 09:15 - Nov 23 with 2512 views | Trequartista |
Oxford Covid vaccine just 70% effective on 07:25 - Nov 23 by bluelagos | Glass half empty day? If the science bods have estaablished that a half dose followed by a full dose gives 90% effectiveness, then it's 90%. Who gives a stuff that 2 full doses is a lower figure? |
Vial half-empty surely? My concern is the margin of error. Only 1 in 5 had the half dose full dose (1 on 10 overall) so with numbers already low at 30/101 for all Covid cases the results for half dose full dose must have been v small numbers |  |
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Oxford Covid vaccine just 70% effective on 09:18 - Nov 23 with 2502 views | clive_baker | Excellent news, given the logistical complexity of rolling out the other 2 and storage requirements. The Oxford vaccine will play a big role globally. |  |
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Oxford Covid vaccine just 70% effective on 09:21 - Nov 23 with 2492 views | IpswichKnight |
Oxford Covid vaccine just 70% effective on 09:07 - Nov 23 by bluelagos | Have they? Didnt pick that up from Grizzly's posts. Would make no sense at all to vaccinate a healthy 55 year old before a vulnerable 45 year old. |
The government plans leaked to health service journal show that those at moderate to high risk and under 65 will get the vaccine 5th in line but before the vast majority of us get it. Care home residents and staff, healthcare workers — from the beginning of December; Ages 80 plus — from mid-December; Everyone aged 70-80 — from late December; Everyone aged 65-70 — from early January; All high and moderate risk under 65s — from early January; Everyone aged 50-65 — from mid-January; and Everyone aged 18-50 — from late January; but with the bulk of this group vaccinated during March. |  | |  |
Oxford Covid vaccine just 70% effective on 09:26 - Nov 23 with 2472 views | bluelagos |
Oxford Covid vaccine just 70% effective on 09:21 - Nov 23 by IpswichKnight | The government plans leaked to health service journal show that those at moderate to high risk and under 65 will get the vaccine 5th in line but before the vast majority of us get it. Care home residents and staff, healthcare workers — from the beginning of December; Ages 80 plus — from mid-December; Everyone aged 70-80 — from late December; Everyone aged 65-70 — from early January; All high and moderate risk under 65s — from early January; Everyone aged 50-65 — from mid-January; and Everyone aged 18-50 — from late January; but with the bulk of this group vaccinated during March. |
Yep, which means by end Jan, the vast majority of those at high risk will have been vaccinated. If we are to continue with restrictions from then, there will need to be very clear messaging of what the restrictions are and why they are needed. |  |
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Oxford Covid vaccine just 70% effective on 09:26 - Nov 23 with 2478 views | gordon | Think the best way of thinking about it is that if vaccinated with the Oxford vaccine you have somewhere between 1/2 and 1/5 the chance of getting the virus compared to if you weren't vaccinated (at 95%CI). (that's taking the data from the two doses part of the trial) not convinced that 70% effective really communicates what it should. |  | |  |
Oxford Covid vaccine just 70% effective on 09:29 - Nov 23 with 2466 views | gordon |
Oxford Covid vaccine just 70% effective on 09:15 - Nov 23 by Trequartista | Vial half-empty surely? My concern is the margin of error. Only 1 in 5 had the half dose full dose (1 on 10 overall) so with numbers already low at 30/101 for all Covid cases the results for half dose full dose must have been v small numbers |
They reported 95% confidence intervals (see post above) - but they weren't really reported in the media - your point is definitely right, though, that the confidence intervals should be in the headline, because they are the most important part of a study like this. |  | |  | Login to get fewer ads
Oxford Covid vaccine just 70% effective on 09:31 - Nov 23 with 2454 views | Pinewoodblue |
Oxford Covid vaccine just 70% effective on 09:07 - Nov 23 by bluelagos | Have they? Didnt pick that up from Grizzly's posts. Would make no sense at all to vaccinate a healthy 55 year old before a vulnerable 45 year old. |
Or in our case a reasonably healthy 74 year old before a person 6 years younger who is at risk. There is however some suggestion from Spinal Injuries Association that she may have to wait until the alternative to a vaccine, an injection of antibodies, is available but that won’t be for another six months and only if it passes trials. |  |
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Oxford Covid vaccine just 70% effective on 09:31 - Nov 23 with 2456 views | gordon |
Oxford Covid vaccine just 70% effective on 07:25 - Nov 23 by bluelagos | Glass half empty day? If the science bods have estaablished that a half dose followed by a full dose gives 90% effectiveness, then it's 90%. Who gives a stuff that 2 full doses is a lower figure? |
No, haven't looked in detail but would guess that the confidence intervals overlap because the samples weren't big enough, so this might not be a real effect (that's just based on the scientists saying there's no reason for their to be this effect - I know about stats, but not virology!). |  | |  |
Oxford Covid vaccine just 70% effective on 09:36 - Nov 23 with 2442 views | bluelagos |
Oxford Covid vaccine just 70% effective on 09:31 - Nov 23 by Pinewoodblue | Or in our case a reasonably healthy 74 year old before a person 6 years younger who is at risk. There is however some suggestion from Spinal Injuries Association that she may have to wait until the alternative to a vaccine, an injection of antibodies, is available but that won’t be for another six months and only if it passes trials. |
Another reason why the healthy should take the vaccine, to help enable those vulnerable people unable to take it, to stop shielding. |  |
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Oxford Covid vaccine just 70% effective on 10:04 - Nov 23 with 2410 views | StokieBlue |
Oxford Covid vaccine just 70% effective on 09:15 - Nov 23 by Trequartista | Vial half-empty surely? My concern is the margin of error. Only 1 in 5 had the half dose full dose (1 on 10 overall) so with numbers already low at 30/101 for all Covid cases the results for half dose full dose must have been v small numbers |
It doesn't matter than much though. Anything above 60% is a good efficacy for a vaccine so if it's 70% the decision is whether we want ease of distribution and cost or we want 95% but with the difficulties around those vaccines. If it's 90% then there isn't really a decision to make if all are equally safe. SB |  | |  |
Oxford Covid vaccine just 70% effective on 12:49 - Nov 23 with 2340 views | GlasgowBlue |
Oxford Covid vaccine just 70% effective on 09:21 - Nov 23 by IpswichKnight | The government plans leaked to health service journal show that those at moderate to high risk and under 65 will get the vaccine 5th in line but before the vast majority of us get it. Care home residents and staff, healthcare workers — from the beginning of December; Ages 80 plus — from mid-December; Everyone aged 70-80 — from late December; Everyone aged 65-70 — from early January; All high and moderate risk under 65s — from early January; Everyone aged 50-65 — from mid-January; and Everyone aged 18-50 — from late January; but with the bulk of this group vaccinated during March. |
Which is realistically now possible with the Oxford vaccine, as it's far easier to store. |  |
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Oxford Covid vaccine just 70% effective on 13:17 - Nov 23 with 2320 views | J2BLUE |
Oxford Covid vaccine just 70% effective on 12:49 - Nov 23 by GlasgowBlue | Which is realistically now possible with the Oxford vaccine, as it's far easier to store. |
Agree. I block out most of the talk on here about Covid. Negative news and estimates get repeated far more than anything positive. |  |
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Oxford Covid vaccine just 70% effective on 13:18 - Nov 23 with 2321 views | gordon |
Oxford Covid vaccine just 70% effective on 10:04 - Nov 23 by StokieBlue | It doesn't matter than much though. Anything above 60% is a good efficacy for a vaccine so if it's 70% the decision is whether we want ease of distribution and cost or we want 95% but with the difficulties around those vaccines. If it's 90% then there isn't really a decision to make if all are equally safe. SB |
Yes, I'd guess that if we aren't sure about efficacy, and it sounds like the Oxford vaccine could be anywhere between about 50% and 90% based on the data, then it will mean needing to be more cautious around the lifting of restrictions (and in particular the communication around that process) that takes place as the vaccines are rolled out. And if the government/media are too gung-ho now, it could lead to people being confused as to why restrictions are still needed when eg 10% of the population are vaccinated. |  | |  |
Oxford Covid vaccine just 70% effective on 14:22 - Nov 23 with 2271 views | Cotty |
Oxford Covid vaccine just 70% effective on 08:49 - Nov 23 by homer_123 | No link Dan no. I'm looking at this from an 'approval' perspective....until they can clearly identify why that alternative dosing provides a better efficacy rate (with the relevant degree of confidence) - it's going to be problematic. Could be due to a better immune system response or it might come at less effectively timescale rate (i.e. the full dose give 12 months cover, the lower dose better efficacy but for only 6 months) etc. At the moment they have data with is a little counter intuitive and contradictory - it can't simply be glossed over. I'm not saying they can't or won't find out why - just that they will need to. |
I don't believe they need to do anything of the sort. Nobody really understands immunology particularly well. Approval is all about efficacy and safety, not understanding. |  | |  |
Oxford Covid vaccine just 70% effective on 14:26 - Nov 23 with 2266 views | ElderGrizzly |
Oxford Covid vaccine just 70% effective on 12:49 - Nov 23 by GlasgowBlue | Which is realistically now possible with the Oxford vaccine, as it's far easier to store. |
You genuinely think the Government will get 15 million people vaccinated in 6 weeks? |  | |  |
Oxford Covid vaccine just 70% effective on 14:32 - Nov 23 with 2260 views | Mookamoo |
Oxford Covid vaccine just 70% effective on 14:26 - Nov 23 by ElderGrizzly | You genuinely think the Government will get 15 million people vaccinated in 6 weeks? |
A government could. This government however.... |  | |  |
Oxford Covid vaccine just 70% effective on 15:12 - Nov 23 with 2237 views | DinDjarin |
Oxford Covid vaccine just 70% effective on 14:26 - Nov 23 by ElderGrizzly | You genuinely think the Government will get 15 million people vaccinated in 6 weeks? |
What do you think the take up will be on a vaccine? More then 50%? |  | |  |
Oxford Covid vaccine just 70% effective on 15:26 - Nov 23 with 2226 views | OhDavidMcgoldrick |
Oxford Covid vaccine just 70% effective on 15:12 - Nov 23 by DinDjarin | What do you think the take up will be on a vaccine? More then 50%? |
Definitely - if it was open to everyone regardless of age or vulnerability, I would like to think at least 70% would take it. More than enough for herd immunity. Will be interesting to see if COVID certificates become part of travelling - like Yellow Fever etc. No need to force anti-vaxxers to take it, but you can limit their ability to travel if they dont! [Post edited 23 Nov 2020 15:26]
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Oxford Covid vaccine just 70% effective on 15:26 - Nov 23 with 2229 views | catch74 | |  |
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Oxford Covid vaccine just 70% effective on 15:30 - Nov 23 with 2218 views | Funge |
Oxford Covid vaccine just 70% effective on 15:26 - Nov 23 by catch74 | |
Hehe, I like that a lot. |  | |  |
Oxford Covid vaccine just 70% effective on 15:59 - Nov 23 with 2199 views | ElderGrizzly |
Oxford Covid vaccine just 70% effective on 15:26 - Nov 23 by OhDavidMcgoldrick | Definitely - if it was open to everyone regardless of age or vulnerability, I would like to think at least 70% would take it. More than enough for herd immunity. Will be interesting to see if COVID certificates become part of travelling - like Yellow Fever etc. No need to force anti-vaxxers to take it, but you can limit their ability to travel if they dont! [Post edited 23 Nov 2020 15:26]
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Vaccine for travel is very much on the table. Discussions with other countries last week and as you say following the yellow fever principle. And to answer DJ’s question, I think we’ll be at 75%+ take up, but as mentioned on another thread the social media campaign of no to vaccinations has already started |  | |  |
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