| Interesting; "This Overlooked Variable Is the Key to the Pandemic" on 08:51 - Nov 28 with 2062 views | Plums |
Thanks for posting. I read that over breakfast, there are some really interesting observations there aren’t there? I’ve sent it on to someone I know who submits to independent SAGE to get his thoughts. |  |
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| Interesting; "This Overlooked Variable Is the Key to the Pandemic" on 08:56 - Nov 28 with 2054 views | bluelagos |
Does make you think that a full football stadium is high risk for fans. Guess we won't be seeing anything close to full stadia for a while yet. All the more reason to get as many people safely vaccinated asap. |  |
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| Interesting; "This Overlooked Variable Is the Key to the Pandemic" on 09:08 - Nov 28 with 2033 views | Ace_High1 |
| Interesting; "This Overlooked Variable Is the Key to the Pandemic" on 08:56 - Nov 28 by bluelagos |
Does make you think that a full football stadium is high risk for fans. Guess we won't be seeing anything close to full stadia for a while yet. All the more reason to get as many people safely vaccinated asap. |
Having a few thousand fans back in seems pointless too at this moment in time.
It is not enough in terms of numbers to really make a financial difference for most clubs, and will not add to the atmosphere for the players, the people there or the TV audience. Just leave this season and then by the time we are well into the vaccinations in the spring, start next season with crowds back.
Also I honestly cannot see how it will be a good day out..... I wouldn't go if someone offered me a ticket. [Post edited 28 Nov 2020 9:11]
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| Interesting; "This Overlooked Variable Is the Key to the Pandemic" on 09:15 - Nov 28 with 2022 views | Ryorry |
| Interesting; "This Overlooked Variable Is the Key to the Pandemic" on 08:56 - Nov 28 by bluelagos |
Does make you think that a full football stadium is high risk for fans. Guess we won't be seeing anything close to full stadia for a while yet. All the more reason to get as many people safely vaccinated asap. |
Does underline the folly of letting Cheltenham & the Anfield Champs Lge game go ahead.
Learned from a friend recently that a former colleague, much loved & all round top guy, was given guest tickets for that Anfield game, caught Covid & died a few weeks later.
#Clusterf&ck |  |
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| Interesting; "This Overlooked Variable Is the Key to the Pandemic" on 09:29 - Nov 28 with 2004 views | DanTheMan |
I must say, I've often wondered why very few people bring up Japan as a comparison to ourselves when looking at Coronavirus response.
They are also an island, with dense populations in cities (and just generally) and a developed economy. Similar to us in a lot of ways.
And yet they have had nowhere near the amount of cases we had.
As far as I'm aware they've not locked down anywhere near as heavily. |  |
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| Interesting; "This Overlooked Variable Is the Key to the Pandemic" on 09:35 - Nov 28 with 1990 views | Plums |
| Interesting; "This Overlooked Variable Is the Key to the Pandemic" on 09:29 - Nov 28 by DanTheMan |
I must say, I've often wondered why very few people bring up Japan as a comparison to ourselves when looking at Coronavirus response.
They are also an island, with dense populations in cities (and just generally) and a developed economy. Similar to us in a lot of ways.
And yet they have had nowhere near the amount of cases we had.
As far as I'm aware they've not locked down anywhere near as heavily. |
Dispute all their Brexityness, our wonderful government failed to realise that we’re an island and defend the population in that way. Testing and quarantine and ultimately closure of airports and ports to all but freight would have made an immediate difference. Shows their ‘control of borders’ mantra is nothing more than a soundbite. | |
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| Interesting; "This Overlooked Variable Is the Key to the Pandemic" on 09:55 - Nov 28 with 1954 views | Guthrum |
| Interesting; "This Overlooked Variable Is the Key to the Pandemic" on 09:15 - Nov 28 by Ryorry |
Does underline the folly of letting Cheltenham & the Anfield Champs Lge game go ahead.
Learned from a friend recently that a former colleague, much loved & all round top guy, was given guest tickets for that Anfield game, caught Covid & died a few weeks later.
#Clusterf&ck |
In the weeks following the Gold Cup, we had more cases in Cheltenham than did Bristol, a place four times the size. |  |
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| Interesting; "This Overlooked Variable Is the Key to the Pandemic" on 09:58 - Nov 28 with 1941 views | Guthrum |
| Interesting; "This Overlooked Variable Is the Key to the Pandemic" on 09:35 - Nov 28 by Plums |
Dispute all their Brexityness, our wonderful government failed to realise that we’re an island and defend the population in that way. Testing and quarantine and ultimately closure of airports and ports to all but freight would have made an immediate difference. Shows their ‘control of borders’ mantra is nothing more than a soundbite. |
Alto, to be fair, by the time we were aware of the issue, it was far too late. Also, the transmission route appears to have been more that UK Citizens went abroad (e.g. skiing in northern Italy and Austria) and unwittingly brought the virus back with them. Border controls wouldn't have helped with that. [Post edited 28 Nov 2020 9:59]
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| Interesting; "This Overlooked Variable Is the Key to the Pandemic" on 10:03 - Nov 28 with 1930 views | Guthrum |
| Interesting; "This Overlooked Variable Is the Key to the Pandemic" on 09:08 - Nov 28 by Ace_High1 |
Having a few thousand fans back in seems pointless too at this moment in time.
It is not enough in terms of numbers to really make a financial difference for most clubs, and will not add to the atmosphere for the players, the people there or the TV audience. Just leave this season and then by the time we are well into the vaccinations in the spring, start next season with crowds back.
Also I honestly cannot see how it will be a good day out..... I wouldn't go if someone offered me a ticket. [Post edited 28 Nov 2020 9:11]
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It will have very little financial advantage for the club. It is virtually certain that ST holders - who've already paid - will get priority. Anything they spend on food and drink, etc., will be offset by the extra cost of hiring matchday staff and creating social distancing infrastructure. | |
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| Interesting; "This Overlooked Variable Is the Key to the Pandemic" on 10:12 - Nov 28 with 1922 views | factual_blue |
| Interesting; "This Overlooked Variable Is the Key to the Pandemic" on 09:15 - Nov 28 by Ryorry |
Does underline the folly of letting Cheltenham & the Anfield Champs Lge game go ahead.
Learned from a friend recently that a former colleague, much loved & all round top guy, was given guest tickets for that Anfield game, caught Covid & died a few weeks later.
#Clusterf&ck |
Let's not forget that matty halfcock is in the pocket of the Jockey Club. He gets substantial financial support from the racing industry every year. |  |
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| Interesting; "This Overlooked Variable Is the Key to the Pandemic" on 10:13 - Nov 28 with 1912 views | factual_blue |
| Interesting; "This Overlooked Variable Is the Key to the Pandemic" on 10:03 - Nov 28 by Guthrum |
It will have very little financial advantage for the club. It is virtually certain that ST holders - who've already paid - will get priority. Anything they spend on food and drink, etc., will be offset by the extra cost of hiring matchday staff and creating social distancing infrastructure. |
I'd be surprised if matchday catering is offered. Certainly no alcohol. | |
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| Interesting; "This Overlooked Variable Is the Key to the Pandemic" on 10:16 - Nov 28 with 1904 views | Ryorry |
| Interesting; "This Overlooked Variable Is the Key to the Pandemic" on 10:12 - Nov 28 by factual_blue |
Let's not forget that matty halfcock is in the pocket of the Jockey Club. He gets substantial financial support from the racing industry every year. |
Bloody hell. Didn't know that.
Never did the word clusterf@ck seem more appropriate. | |
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| Interesting; "This Overlooked Variable Is the Key to the Pandemic" on 10:19 - Nov 28 with 1899 views | GlasgowBlue |
| Interesting; "This Overlooked Variable Is the Key to the Pandemic" on 09:35 - Nov 28 by Plums |
Dispute all their Brexityness, our wonderful government failed to realise that we’re an island and defend the population in that way. Testing and quarantine and ultimately closure of airports and ports to all but freight would have made an immediate difference. Shows their ‘control of borders’ mantra is nothing more than a soundbite. |
Japan didn’t shut any of their airports or ports, and as if the middle of July had only tested 348,000 people, or 0.27% of their population. |  |
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| Interesting; "This Overlooked Variable Is the Key to the Pandemic" on 10:23 - Nov 28 with 1896 views | Ryorry |
| Interesting; "This Overlooked Variable Is the Key to the Pandemic" on 09:55 - Nov 28 by Guthrum |
In the weeks following the Gold Cup, we had more cases in Cheltenham than did Bristol, a place four times the size. |
So sad, so unnecessary, but unfortunately, can't say I'm surprised. Anyone who knows about that event knows that the crowds aren't just jammed shoulder to shoulder outside, but inside too, in the numerous bars, restaurants, concourses, loos etc. | |
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| Interesting; "This Overlooked Variable Is the Key to the Pandemic" on 10:25 - Nov 28 with 1888 views | lowhouseblue |
where i'm based is probably a good example this. we've been doing lots of testing and people have now started following the dna of the virus from test to test. it seems that from then end of september all cases can be traced back to a handful number of initial positives, but that the number of cases then remained at a consistently low level. it didn't take off. then on the eve of lockdown we had a single super spreader event (a well known pub chain selling off its stock for £1 pint). the graph is pretty dramatic. then because of lockdown it was contained and after about 3 weeks we are getting back to where we were. |  |
| And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show |
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| Interesting; "This Overlooked Variable Is the Key to the Pandemic" on 10:39 - Nov 28 with 1858 views | Plums |
| Interesting; "This Overlooked Variable Is the Key to the Pandemic" on 10:23 - Nov 28 by Ryorry |
So sad, so unnecessary, but unfortunately, can't say I'm surprised. Anyone who knows about that event knows that the crowds aren't just jammed shoulder to shoulder outside, but inside too, in the numerous bars, restaurants, concourses, loos etc. |
My contact says the science is well known to scientists, but ignored by politicians ‘cos many of them don’t understand the basics of epidemiology, plus it’s not what they want to hear. If it was taken seriously they wouldn’t have reopened pubs and gyms when they did, or allowed Cheltenham to go ahead.
It’s also much harder to model - requires much more data to produce accurate models. But shouldn’t stop estimation. | |
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| Interesting; "This Overlooked Variable Is the Key to the Pandemic" on 10:42 - Nov 28 with 1848 views | Plums |
| Interesting; "This Overlooked Variable Is the Key to the Pandemic" on 10:19 - Nov 28 by GlasgowBlue |
Japan didn’t shut any of their airports or ports, and as if the middle of July had only tested 348,000 people, or 0.27% of their population. |
Fair point but it seems they did follow the science whereas we ummed, ahh’d and ultimately failed over and over again despite claiming to do so. | |
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| Interesting; "This Overlooked Variable Is the Key to the Pandemic" on 10:47 - Nov 28 with 1837 views | Freddies_Ears |
| Interesting; "This Overlooked Variable Is the Key to the Pandemic" on 10:39 - Nov 28 by Plums |
My contact says the science is well known to scientists, but ignored by politicians ‘cos many of them don’t understand the basics of epidemiology, plus it’s not what they want to hear. If it was taken seriously they wouldn’t have reopened pubs and gyms when they did, or allowed Cheltenham to go ahead.
It’s also much harder to model - requires much more data to produce accurate models. But shouldn’t stop estimation. |
All of which leads to unnecessary restrictions. By permitting some indoor, close contact, long duration places to operate, (churches, pubs, hairdressers etc), but not allowing (safer) outdoor mass-participation events (sports, notably), infections are less well controlled and restrictions have to remain in place far longer. |  | | |
| Interesting; "This Overlooked Variable Is the Key to the Pandemic" on 10:48 - Nov 28 with 1836 views | factual_blue |
| Interesting; "This Overlooked Variable Is the Key to the Pandemic" on 10:16 - Nov 28 by Ryorry |
Bloody hell. Didn't know that.
Never did the word clusterf@ck seem more appropriate. |
We have the dubious privilege of matthew halfcock as our MP.
A local journo tells me halfcock stopped calling himself Matthew some years ago.
One can only wonder why....
gideon osborne is 94. | |
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| Interesting; "This Overlooked Variable Is the Key to the Pandemic" on 10:50 - Nov 28 with 1831 views | GlasgowBlue |
| Interesting; "This Overlooked Variable Is the Key to the Pandemic" on 10:42 - Nov 28 by Plums |
Fair point but it seems they did follow the science whereas we ummed, ahh’d and ultimately failed over and over again despite claiming to do so. |
From what I remember from the time, and it was a while ago now, Chris Whitty and Patrick Valance had advised against taking earlier measures as they were worried that we would get lockdown fatigue. And that the timing had to be right on imposing a lockdown.
I think Vallance has since admitted that the virus was more widespread in the UK than they thought at the time.
There is no doubt that the government have given up any pretence of following the science since we came out if lockdown in July. | |
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| Interesting; "This Overlooked Variable Is the Key to the Pandemic" on 10:59 - Nov 28 with 1811 views | Darth_Koont |
(Cough)
Interesting Covid article here by Steve_M 1 Oct 2020 10:15Summary of that we know and don't know about infection rates, there is an awful lot in the latter category still.
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/
"Using genomic analysis, researchers in New Zealand looked at more than half the confirmed cases in the country and found a staggering 277 separate introductions in the early months, but also that only 19 percent of introductions led to more than one additional case ........ Meanwhile, in Daegu, South Korea, just one woman, dubbed Patient 31, generated more than 5,000 known cases in a megachurch cluster."
Without a better understanding of why such variability exists it is very difficult to tailor restrictions to manage the virus. Globally, knowledge is probably better but half-arsed policies and outright denialism make that harder.
I think the bigger question is why this hasn’t seeped into the debate already. Perhaps puts some doubt on the K value’s usefulness but also very possible that it’s a reflection of politicians and the media trying to simplify the debate and our response because they’re not all that sharp. [Post edited 28 Nov 2020 11:00]
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| Interesting; "This Overlooked Variable Is the Key to the Pandemic" on 11:04 - Nov 28 with 1797 views | Plums |
| Interesting; "This Overlooked Variable Is the Key to the Pandemic" on 10:16 - Nov 28 by Ryorry |
Bloody hell. Didn't know that.
Never did the word clusterf@ck seem more appropriate. |
It’s on record as approx £100k last year. Dido Harding is also well placed in the horse racing world. If it looks like a duck... [Post edited 28 Nov 2020 11:26]
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| Interesting; "This Overlooked Variable Is the Key to the Pandemic" on 11:24 - Nov 28 with 1768 views | Ryorry |
| Interesting; "This Overlooked Variable Is the Key to the Pandemic" on 10:59 - Nov 28 by Darth_Koont |
(Cough)
Interesting Covid article here by Steve_M 1 Oct 2020 10:15Summary of that we know and don't know about infection rates, there is an awful lot in the latter category still.
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/
"Using genomic analysis, researchers in New Zealand looked at more than half the confirmed cases in the country and found a staggering 277 separate introductions in the early months, but also that only 19 percent of introductions led to more than one additional case ........ Meanwhile, in Daegu, South Korea, just one woman, dubbed Patient 31, generated more than 5,000 known cases in a megachurch cluster."
Without a better understanding of why such variability exists it is very difficult to tailor restrictions to manage the virus. Globally, knowledge is probably better but half-arsed policies and outright denialism make that harder.
I think the bigger question is why this hasn’t seeped into the debate already. Perhaps puts some doubt on the K value’s usefulness but also very possible that it’s a reflection of politicians and the media trying to simplify the debate and our response because they’re not all that sharp. [Post edited 28 Nov 2020 11:00]
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Apols to Steve, had completely forgotten that! (or didn't notice the title of the article).
I take the brainlessness of politicians, not to mention their steer on things for personal advantage, as a given tbh - particularly the current bunch of corrupticos masquerading as a Govt. - you've only got to look at the ERG, the referendum & #BrexitShambles to see that. | |
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| Interesting; "This Overlooked Variable Is the Key to the Pandemic" on 11:32 - Nov 28 with 1748 views | Ryorry |
| Interesting; "This Overlooked Variable Is the Key to the Pandemic" on 10:47 - Nov 28 by Freddies_Ears |
All of which leads to unnecessary restrictions. By permitting some indoor, close contact, long duration places to operate, (churches, pubs, hairdressers etc), but not allowing (safer) outdoor mass-participation events (sports, notably), infections are less well controlled and restrictions have to remain in place far longer. |
I think with outdoor sporting events, it may have been the need to open up limited catering facilities, but particularly toilets and concourses of course, that caused them to think twice about opening those up.
The sports club where my walking football takes place shut down the clubhouse, including toilets - which was the reason all our wf games were stopped anyway. | |
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| Interesting; "This Overlooked Variable Is the Key to the Pandemic" on 11:55 - Nov 28 with 1712 views | Plums |
| Interesting; "This Overlooked Variable Is the Key to the Pandemic" on 11:32 - Nov 28 by Ryorry |
I think with outdoor sporting events, it may have been the need to open up limited catering facilities, but particularly toilets and concourses of course, that caused them to think twice about opening those up.
The sports club where my walking football takes place shut down the clubhouse, including toilets - which was the reason all our wf games were stopped anyway. |
I have a six a side franchise and one of my venues (on a school site) hasn’t opened since March. I’ve just seen a tweet from a local club who will have their 3G open next Saturday morning for grassroots football but they’ll then have to close everything for their first team game in the afternoon - despite there being more people there in the morning...it’s a very confusing picture. | |
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