| Projected Points Total 08:55 - Dec 5 with 648 views | CornishMariner |
Below is a table of our current form, against the top, middle and bottom eight teams.
It shows the average points per game.
I have used this to calculate a projection to the end of the season. If we maintain this form until the end we will end up with 73 points i.e. scraping into the play-offs. If we lose today, that will come down to 70 points which would not be enough.
Actual Home Away Played
Top 8 0 0 4
Middle 8 3 1.5 4
Bottom 8 3 1.67 7
This is why, without any great joy, I am now definitely in the 90% that think we need a change of manager, one that can work out the tactics needed to beat the top teams. Having someone not being so temperamental, volatile and contradictory would also help both the fans and, I expect, the players. |  |
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| Projected Points Total on 09:10 - Dec 5 with 591 views | StokieBlue |
I think that's a generous projection.
You need to weight the points per game against sides using an EMA rather than SMA so it gives more weight to more recent results which are getting worse by the game.
I suspect if you do that our projected points comes down to about 60 at most.
That does reinforce your conclusion that Lambo should go. Perform the same analysis on Sunderland and you'll likely find they sacked their manager with a roughly equal projected total.
SB [Post edited 5 Dec 2020 9:16]
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| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Projected Points Total (n/t) on 09:12 - Dec 5 with 586 views | CornishMariner |
I agree but thought it was worth putting it out that, even with the great start when it was not obvious how we would play, the projected points total is not great.
60 points is just depressing! [Post edited 5 Dec 2020 9:14]
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| Projected Points Total (n/t) on 09:26 - Dec 5 with 543 views | dirtyboy |
| Projected Points Total (n/t) on 09:12 - Dec 5 by CornishMariner |
I agree but thought it was worth putting it out that, even with the great start when it was not obvious how we would play, the projected points total is not great.
60 points is just depressing! [Post edited 5 Dec 2020 9:14]
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Look, I’m not standing up for Lambert, but you’d fully expect that when we start to see Bishop, Dozzell, Edwards, Downes and Norwood + KVY results will improve (and the football too)
I’m always looking forward instead of back! |  | | |
| Projected Points Total (n/t) on 09:29 - Dec 5 with 526 views | JDB23 |
| Projected Points Total (n/t) on 09:26 - Dec 5 by dirtyboy |
Look, I’m not standing up for Lambert, but you’d fully expect that when we start to see Bishop, Dozzell, Edwards, Downes and Norwood + KVY results will improve (and the football too)
I’m always looking forward instead of back! |
I think you mean “if” not “when”. I’m sure we will also pick up other injuries along the way. |  | | |
| Projected Points Total on 12:46 - Dec 5 with 391 views | ArnoldMoorhen |
Since November we have 1 win, 1 draw, 3 defeats in the League (plus 2 Cup defeats, 1 against League1 and 1 against League 2 opposition).
That's current (5 game) form of 0.8 points per game. If that continued it would get us to 51 points by the season end.
Across a season that equates to 37 points. In 2018/19 (the last complete season) that would have seen us bottom by 4 points, 14 points from safety.
We are in a very bad place indeed, currently. Your 70 point prediction is optimistic. Because of the woefulness of the current bottom 3 we may need only another 12 points or so to avoid relegation this season, but if a couple of them manage to turn things around quicker than we do we may have a rather more anxious end to the season than you are anticipating. | | | |
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