| "Oven-ready" - on 14:17 - Dec 10 with 1559 views | gordon |
| "Oven-ready" - on 13:39 - Dec 10 by Pinewoodblue |
I can Ulla’s point.
Another point worth considering is this possible, or proposed I, m not sure which, ban on travel from UK to EU. Won’t this result in the EU breaking the good Friday agreement? |
There isn't a travel ban - only the fact that we're becoming a third party to the EU, which means that our right to travel freely in the EU will no longer exist, and we'd be subject to more controls on our movement, which if the pandemic got worse, could mean no travel in the EU. It's what we wanted, an end to free movement. |  | |  |
| "Oven-ready" - on 14:21 - Dec 10 with 1548 views | gordon |
| "Oven-ready" - on 13:30 - Dec 10 by giant_stow |
With you mr, just we're not Brexiters innit - soverignty will keep a lot happy. On that point, no deal will ever please some, so perhaps thats what has to happen for Boris to stay in charge.
The words of simpleton no doubt, but none of this is rational. |
Sure, we can try not to trade with large trading blocs, do more trade with smaller, poorer countries and be poorer ourselves but have more 'sovereignty' and become more irrelevant internationally.
That's the decision we seem to be taking - would just be good if we could talk about the obvious trade-offs, rather than pretend they don't exist. | | | |
| "Oven-ready" - on 14:22 - Dec 10 with 1545 views | Herbivore |
| "Oven-ready" - on 13:25 - Dec 10 by giant_stow |
I'm just wondering if the EU really does hold all the cards.
Take the fishing thing - it feels like that matters more to Macron than it does to us.
I also wonder if our population is better prepared for the chaos? We’ll undoubtedly get more f'cked than them, but at least “we” voted for it.
With the sticking to their rules thing in mind, perhaps they’re more vulnerable than we realise, especially with the brexiters frothing, ready to take it for Queen and country… rule Britannia…
Don’t get me wrong — I hate all this and wish it wasn’t happening — just not sure it’s as cut and dried as we remainers think.
...be gentle! |
We're not at all well prepared for the chaos. Many businesses have no idea what trading with the EU is going to look like on January the 1st. And how much progress have we made on customs infrastructure to cope with no deal? "We" didn't vote for it, less than a third of the UK population voted for Brexit and less than that still think it's a good idea, plus you can't eat sovereignty and national pride won't replace essential medication either.
We will be the ones who are screwed should we end up with no deal. We're already losing business hand over fist because of the uncertainty and the risk of barriers to frictionless trade. Again, I'm not sure how well patriotism overcomes actual economic realities. |  |
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| "Oven-ready" - on 14:24 - Dec 10 with 1540 views | Herbivore |
| "Oven-ready" - on 13:30 - Dec 10 by giant_stow |
With you mr, just we're not Brexiters innit - soverignty will keep a lot happy. On that point, no deal will ever please some, so perhaps thats what has to happen for Boris to stay in charge.
The words of simpleton no doubt, but none of this is rational. |
But even a majority of Tory voters and Brexiteers - the ones who actually think there's some benefit to this - want a deal. No deal is and always has been a fringe position, unfortunately the UK has made it much more likely by erecting a lot of incompatible red lines based on the assumption that because we're British we should be able to have our cake and eat it. This country is whack. | |
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| "Oven-ready" - on 16:16 - Dec 10 with 1500 views | giant_stow |
| "Oven-ready" - on 14:05 - Dec 10 by Steve_M |
You're forgetting other countries have domestic politics and voters to pander too though.
The EU has also got far more of the necessary border infrastructure in place than the UK has and has a smaller proportion of it's trade with the UK than the UK has with the EU.
The EU will be worse off if there is no deal, Ireland especially, but there is one country that will really suffer and it's this one. |
No doubt that's all true. I guess I'm talk about a group willingness to deal with hardship though and because we voted for it and have been warned for ages how tough it might be, we may be mentally better able to cope. (despite the EU's preparations being further advanced and the affects being less than we'll feal). |  |
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| "Oven-ready" - on 16:22 - Dec 10 with 1487 views | giant_stow |
| "Oven-ready" - on 14:24 - Dec 10 by Herbivore |
But even a majority of Tory voters and Brexiteers - the ones who actually think there's some benefit to this - want a deal. No deal is and always has been a fringe position, unfortunately the UK has made it much more likely by erecting a lot of incompatible red lines based on the assumption that because we're British we should be able to have our cake and eat it. This country is whack. |
Both your posts are very fair and I largely agree. All I'm saying is the EU isn't some untouchable fortress which will weather things easily - they have many problems besides us, and I wouldn't under-estimate their need to avoid adding to those problems. | |
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| "Oven-ready" - on 16:31 - Dec 10 with 1470 views | Steve_M |
| "Oven-ready" - on 16:16 - Dec 10 by giant_stow |
No doubt that's all true. I guess I'm talk about a group willingness to deal with hardship though and because we voted for it and have been warned for ages how tough it might be, we may be mentally better able to cope. (despite the EU's preparations being further advanced and the affects being less than we'll feal). |
Having seen how prominent Brexiters have reacted to any covid-related restrictions over the last couple of months I think we know that won't happen.
In any case, half of the country didn't vote for it, plenty that did have changed their minds and the vast majority of those who haven't still expect a trade deal that they have been repeatedly promised. |  |
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| "Oven-ready" - on 16:35 - Dec 10 with 1452 views | hype313 |
| "Oven-ready" - on 16:31 - Dec 10 by Steve_M |
Having seen how prominent Brexiters have reacted to any covid-related restrictions over the last couple of months I think we know that won't happen.
In any case, half of the country didn't vote for it, plenty that did have changed their minds and the vast majority of those who haven't still expect a trade deal that they have been repeatedly promised. |
The number of rejoiners is gathering pace at a rate, buyers remorse? |  |
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| "Oven-ready" - on 16:36 - Dec 10 with 1450 views | Herbivore |
| "Oven-ready" - on 16:22 - Dec 10 by giant_stow |
Both your posts are very fair and I largely agree. All I'm saying is the EU isn't some untouchable fortress which will weather things easily - they have many problems besides us, and I wouldn't under-estimate their need to avoid adding to those problems. |
But they are much better placed to absorb the impact than we are. EU countries can all still trade with each other and with numerous other countries freely. We can't. We've had Liz Truss celebrating us securing trade deals with other countries that are either equivalent or worse than ones we had as EU members. There are others that we haven't yet agreed to roll over I believe. Trade with the UK isn't insignificant to EU member states of course but it is much less significant than our trade with the EU as a blok. Of course they could do without the ball ache of a no deal, but it's not worth them compromising the single market over. | |
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| "Oven-ready" - on 16:39 - Dec 10 with 1446 views | giant_stow |
| "Oven-ready" - on 16:31 - Dec 10 by Steve_M |
Having seen how prominent Brexiters have reacted to any covid-related restrictions over the last couple of months I think we know that won't happen.
In any case, half of the country didn't vote for it, plenty that did have changed their minds and the vast majority of those who haven't still expect a trade deal that they have been repeatedly promised. |
True, but "we" was always shorthand and the govt is fully behind it, 80 seat majority etc. Aren't remainers a little beaten down now, or is it just me?!
I do wonder how many brexit voters will ever admit their mistake, given Brexit has become another battle in the wider culture war. It might be easier for them to grin and bare it. | |
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| "Oven-ready" - on 16:46 - Dec 10 with 1419 views | giant_stow |
| "Oven-ready" - on 16:36 - Dec 10 by Herbivore |
But they are much better placed to absorb the impact than we are. EU countries can all still trade with each other and with numerous other countries freely. We can't. We've had Liz Truss celebrating us securing trade deals with other countries that are either equivalent or worse than ones we had as EU members. There are others that we haven't yet agreed to roll over I believe. Trade with the UK isn't insignificant to EU member states of course but it is much less significant than our trade with the EU as a blok. Of course they could do without the ball ache of a no deal, but it's not worth them compromising the single market over. |
I think if i carry on counterring, I might start to get a rep for defending the indefensible!
I just have a completely uninformed vibe that the EU may be holding a compromise back till the veyr last minute. We haven't even touched on the huge trade imbalance after all... | |
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| "Oven-ready" - on 16:56 - Dec 10 with 1401 views | Herbivore |
| "Oven-ready" - on 16:46 - Dec 10 by giant_stow |
I think if i carry on counterring, I might start to get a rep for defending the indefensible!
I just have a completely uninformed vibe that the EU may be holding a compromise back till the veyr last minute. We haven't even touched on the huge trade imbalance after all... |
What are you referring to specifically in terms of the huge trade imbalance? And what do you think is significant about it? | |
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| "Oven-ready" - on 17:08 - Dec 10 with 1386 views | giant_stow |
| "Oven-ready" - on 16:56 - Dec 10 by Herbivore |
What are you referring to specifically in terms of the huge trade imbalance? And what do you think is significant about it? |
oh gawd, have a done another boob?
I mean "The UK had an overall trade deficit of -£79 billion with the EU in 2019"
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-7851/
I'll be honest and admit I don't fully understand why this is bad other than a basic: if we're buying more from them, than we sell them, we're in some of difficulty.
But isn't Germany often praised (or criticised for being mercantilist) for its trade surplus?
You're dragging me into a debate I haven't got time for you brute! Work to do! | |
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| "Oven-ready" - on 17:16 - Dec 10 with 1380 views | Radlett_blue |
| "Oven-ready" - on 17:08 - Dec 10 by giant_stow |
oh gawd, have a done another boob?
I mean "The UK had an overall trade deficit of -£79 billion with the EU in 2019"
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-7851/
I'll be honest and admit I don't fully understand why this is bad other than a basic: if we're buying more from them, than we sell them, we're in some of difficulty.
But isn't Germany often praised (or criticised for being mercantilist) for its trade surplus?
You're dragging me into a debate I haven't got time for you brute! Work to do! |
The UK is the largest buyer of EU goods, buying around £340bn worth a year (close to the USA as #1). No one else comes close - China is next at around £170bn. So while a "no deal" Brexit will be bad for the UK, it will also be damaging to the major EU exporters, especially Germany. |  |
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| "Oven-ready" - on 17:23 - Dec 10 with 1377 views | Herbivore |
| "Oven-ready" - on 17:08 - Dec 10 by giant_stow |
oh gawd, have a done another boob?
I mean "The UK had an overall trade deficit of -£79 billion with the EU in 2019"
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-7851/
I'll be honest and admit I don't fully understand why this is bad other than a basic: if we're buying more from them, than we sell them, we're in some of difficulty.
But isn't Germany often praised (or criticised for being mercantilist) for its trade surplus?
You're dragging me into a debate I haven't got time for you brute! Work to do! |
It basically means we buy a lot more from them than we export to them. Some Brexiteers have tried to paint this as us being in a position of strength as they won't want to lose all those exports to us. However, we don't really have any choice other than to continue importing from the EU so all it means is those imports will cost us more. On the flip side, the EU - given its size - is likely to be better placed to replace the things it currently imports from the UK with products and services from within the EU once it becomes more expensive to trade with us.
Also, whilst the UK is a big trading partner for the EU it's important to remember that it is divided amongst 27 states, so the impact is somewhat dissipated. Being in a large blok enables them to absorb this kind of shock much more easily than us and they are better placed to replace any lost trade between the UK and the EU from either within their own internal market or through other free trade deals they enjoy with other countries.
It really can't be understated how badly we're shooting ourselves in the foot. | |
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| "Oven-ready" - on 17:27 - Dec 10 with 1368 views | giant_stow |
| "Oven-ready" - on 17:16 - Dec 10 by Radlett_blue |
The UK is the largest buyer of EU goods, buying around £340bn worth a year (close to the USA as #1). No one else comes close - China is next at around £170bn. So while a "no deal" Brexit will be bad for the UK, it will also be damaging to the major EU exporters, especially Germany. |
Cheers mr. | |
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| "Oven-ready" - on 17:34 - Dec 10 with 1359 views | Herbivore |
| "Oven-ready" - on 17:16 - Dec 10 by Radlett_blue |
The UK is the largest buyer of EU goods, buying around £340bn worth a year (close to the USA as #1). No one else comes close - China is next at around £170bn. So while a "no deal" Brexit will be bad for the UK, it will also be damaging to the major EU exporters, especially Germany. |
Not sure those figures are accurate, the figures I've seen show that the US imports more from the EU than the UK does for example. It's also worth noting that many of the big economies within the EU pass significant amounts of money around between themselves but they are not included in these kinds of lists as they are considered part of the EU bloc.
In any case, we will still need to maintain a high level of imports from the EU. It's not like we can do a free trade deal with Botswana and suddenly chuck £300bn of trade their way instead. We also can't replace that trade using our own domestic market. The EU is much better placed to absorb any loss of trade with the UK within its own internal market. | |
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| "Oven-ready" - on 17:35 - Dec 10 with 1356 views | gordon |
| "Oven-ready" - on 17:16 - Dec 10 by Radlett_blue |
The UK is the largest buyer of EU goods, buying around £340bn worth a year (close to the USA as #1). No one else comes close - China is next at around £170bn. So while a "no deal" Brexit will be bad for the UK, it will also be damaging to the major EU exporters, especially Germany. |
Think the way these numbers are presented is important. The best way to compare the numbers is in proportionate terms, eg:
around 43% of UK exports go to the EU (in 2019)
While around 6% of German exports go to the UK.
So if exports is the best measure (I'm sure there's loads of other factors), then we're looking at about 7 times the impact in the UK compared to Germany.
Then you've got to factor in that in the medium term there will be financial and manufacturing operations relocated from the UK to the EU (obviously spread across a few industrial / financial hubs) which will soften the blow, but there will also be a longer-term (but smallish), global negative impact of the foregone economic growth resulting from the reduced trade. | | | |
| "Oven-ready" - on 17:36 - Dec 10 with 1352 views | giant_stow |
| "Oven-ready" - on 17:23 - Dec 10 by Herbivore |
It basically means we buy a lot more from them than we export to them. Some Brexiteers have tried to paint this as us being in a position of strength as they won't want to lose all those exports to us. However, we don't really have any choice other than to continue importing from the EU so all it means is those imports will cost us more. On the flip side, the EU - given its size - is likely to be better placed to replace the things it currently imports from the UK with products and services from within the EU once it becomes more expensive to trade with us.
Also, whilst the UK is a big trading partner for the EU it's important to remember that it is divided amongst 27 states, so the impact is somewhat dissipated. Being in a large blok enables them to absorb this kind of shock much more easily than us and they are better placed to replace any lost trade between the UK and the EU from either within their own internal market or through other free trade deals they enjoy with other countries.
It really can't be understated how badly we're shooting ourselves in the foot. |
Yes, I get the strength / dissipated thing and fair enough, but that overall picture does mask some pretty steep pain for certain parts of the EU. That strife will have local political costs.
I guess what I’m saying is that if no- deal brexit hurts us 10/10, certain countries will still hurt 3/10 (for the sake of argument) and that will feel grim to them. That’s a lot of 3/10s adding up alongside other bubbling problems they face (shared pooling of debt, north/south imbalance/east/west culture clash/questions about democracy in Poland and Hungary/ Who pays for covid / ECB Bond financing etc)
Maybe Boris has pulled the wool over my eyes successfully, that I believe he really would pull the trigger on no-deal, but I do believe that. If the EU do too, they may just decide to take the pragmatic route. Obviously, I could easily be chatting plop though — accepted!
(edited for crimes against the english language - anything left is a mystery to me) [Post edited 10 Dec 2020 17:38]
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| "Oven-ready" - on 17:41 - Dec 10 with 1342 views | gordon |
| "Oven-ready" - on 17:36 - Dec 10 by giant_stow |
Yes, I get the strength / dissipated thing and fair enough, but that overall picture does mask some pretty steep pain for certain parts of the EU. That strife will have local political costs.
I guess what I’m saying is that if no- deal brexit hurts us 10/10, certain countries will still hurt 3/10 (for the sake of argument) and that will feel grim to them. That’s a lot of 3/10s adding up alongside other bubbling problems they face (shared pooling of debt, north/south imbalance/east/west culture clash/questions about democracy in Poland and Hungary/ Who pays for covid / ECB Bond financing etc)
Maybe Boris has pulled the wool over my eyes successfully, that I believe he really would pull the trigger on no-deal, but I do believe that. If the EU do too, they may just decide to take the pragmatic route. Obviously, I could easily be chatting plop though — accepted!
(edited for crimes against the english language - anything left is a mystery to me) [Post edited 10 Dec 2020 17:38]
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The worst outcome for the EU in the medium-term, which would exacerbate all the other problems, is that the UK were somehow to make a success of Brexit, and prosper outside the EU from having gained better terms outside the EU than inside.
That's by far the biggest risk that the EU faces, because it would put at risk the future of the Single Market, and the relations of the countries within the EU.
That's what we've never really understood - we've always just assumed that the EU would decide to put aside their broader ambitions and give us whatever we wanted to avoid those '3/10' collatoral economic damage. The irony is that we refuse to accept this, while at the same time insisting that a 10/10 economic hit for ourselves will be worth it for the broader ambitions we have, namely 'sovereignty'. [Post edited 10 Dec 2020 17:42]
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| "Oven-ready" - on 17:57 - Dec 10 with 1323 views | Herbivore |
| "Oven-ready" - on 17:36 - Dec 10 by giant_stow |
Yes, I get the strength / dissipated thing and fair enough, but that overall picture does mask some pretty steep pain for certain parts of the EU. That strife will have local political costs.
I guess what I’m saying is that if no- deal brexit hurts us 10/10, certain countries will still hurt 3/10 (for the sake of argument) and that will feel grim to them. That’s a lot of 3/10s adding up alongside other bubbling problems they face (shared pooling of debt, north/south imbalance/east/west culture clash/questions about democracy in Poland and Hungary/ Who pays for covid / ECB Bond financing etc)
Maybe Boris has pulled the wool over my eyes successfully, that I believe he really would pull the trigger on no-deal, but I do believe that. If the EU do too, they may just decide to take the pragmatic route. Obviously, I could easily be chatting plop though — accepted!
(edited for crimes against the english language - anything left is a mystery to me) [Post edited 10 Dec 2020 17:38]
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The EU has no incentive to compromise the integrity of the single market to appease a country that has chosen to leave us. No deal would have to be catastrophic for the EU to even consider compromising the single market, but the fact is that it isn't catastrophic for them. It is, however, catastrophic for us. It'd be like you telling me I have to support Norwich or you'll blow your brains out because you think the threat of me getting a bit of your brain on my new shoes is leverage. | |
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| "Oven-ready" - on 21:53 - Dec 12 with 1187 views | Seablu |
| "Oven-ready" - on 08:06 - Dec 10 by GlasgowBlue |
Did you believe the oven ready ready deal was a trade deal or the withdrawal agreement?
And like it or not he did get brexit done. We’ve left.
Look I’m not goung into bat for Johnson on this. It’s a waste of my time and I have no wish it did so. But it’s a fact that the oven ready deal was the WA, sketching May failed to get through at three attempts. Although most people wish she had now as it would have kept us in the single market.
Not wasting any more time on this one. [Post edited 10 Dec 2020 8:11]
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No-one summoned you in to disseminate your skewed wisdom and fritter away your valuable time in the first place.
Pompous self-importance of the highest order.
Offer still stands if you need a proof reader though.
You can’t type for toffee these days, sweetheart. |  | | |
| "Oven-ready" - on 23:11 - Dec 12 with 1166 views | Churchman |
| "Oven-ready" - on 17:08 - Dec 10 by giant_stow |
oh gawd, have a done another boob?
I mean "The UK had an overall trade deficit of -£79 billion with the EU in 2019"
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-7851/
I'll be honest and admit I don't fully understand why this is bad other than a basic: if we're buying more from them, than we sell them, we're in some of difficulty.
But isn't Germany often praised (or criticised for being mercantilist) for its trade surplus?
You're dragging me into a debate I haven't got time for you brute! Work to do! |
In my view your posts are not a million miles out. The reality is that EU exports to the UK are important. Some goods move back and forth across borders several times to be ‘finished’ as well, but the basic sum is the EU exports twice as much to the UK than visa versa. The negative effect on some countries such as Germany Holland and Spain will be significant. The other problem for the EU is that UKs trade with the EU has been falling in relation to the rest of the world for a decade or more. No deal will only accelerate this. Ok, they can sit by the fireside laughing at the worse situation in the UK and a lesson well taught, but that won’t help them economically in the short or long term.
A trade agreement only works if it’s in the best interests of both parties and in UK EU case it is a no brainier. Even the BBC believes what the EU are demanding is unreasonable and I believe it is. That the UK was stupid enough to leave is irrelevant now. It should be about a productive deal for both sides. I think what the EU is trying to do at the moment is awful and any agreement on their terms now is untenable.
As for preparation, do not believe all you read. Serious work on no deal preparation has been going on since spring 2017. I doubt it’ll be as bad as is being stated in the media and nor will it be easy. Just over two years ago, the threat to everything from the water we drink to the petrol in the car was very real. That isn’t the case now. There will be shortages driven by panic buying, reduced choice, supplier driven shortages and the south east jammed by traffic queues, but a lot of things have been done to lessen the potentially catastrophic effects. [Post edited 12 Dec 2020 23:12]
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| No sh1t, Sherlock on 02:15 - Dec 13 with 1105 views | Eireannach_gorm |
| "Oven-ready" - on 23:11 - Dec 12 by Churchman |
In my view your posts are not a million miles out. The reality is that EU exports to the UK are important. Some goods move back and forth across borders several times to be ‘finished’ as well, but the basic sum is the EU exports twice as much to the UK than visa versa. The negative effect on some countries such as Germany Holland and Spain will be significant. The other problem for the EU is that UKs trade with the EU has been falling in relation to the rest of the world for a decade or more. No deal will only accelerate this. Ok, they can sit by the fireside laughing at the worse situation in the UK and a lesson well taught, but that won’t help them economically in the short or long term.
A trade agreement only works if it’s in the best interests of both parties and in UK EU case it is a no brainier. Even the BBC believes what the EU are demanding is unreasonable and I believe it is. That the UK was stupid enough to leave is irrelevant now. It should be about a productive deal for both sides. I think what the EU is trying to do at the moment is awful and any agreement on their terms now is untenable.
As for preparation, do not believe all you read. Serious work on no deal preparation has been going on since spring 2017. I doubt it’ll be as bad as is being stated in the media and nor will it be easy. Just over two years ago, the threat to everything from the water we drink to the petrol in the car was very real. That isn’t the case now. There will be shortages driven by panic buying, reduced choice, supplier driven shortages and the south east jammed by traffic queues, but a lot of things have been done to lessen the potentially catastrophic effects. [Post edited 12 Dec 2020 23:12]
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https://amp.rte.ie/amp/1183712/ |  | | |
| "Oven-ready" - on 07:01 - Dec 13 with 1039 views | Churchman |
| "Oven-ready" - on 13:39 - Dec 10 by Pinewoodblue |
I can Ulla’s point.
Another point worth considering is this possible, or proposed I, m not sure which, ban on travel from UK to EU. Won’t this result in the EU breaking the good Friday agreement? |
Because CTA pre dates entry into the EU, I don’t think so. Free movement of British Irish people between their countries and all that goes with it will still take place regardless. CTA relates only to people though and what I don't know, not having read the GFA, is whether blockading movement of goods, animals etc breaks it. | | | |
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