Forum | HMG Covid map stats explanation? by NthQldITFC

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HMG Covid map stats explanation? 00:12 - Dec 17 with 650 views

I couldn't see an explanation for what their Rolling Rate and Total Cases figures represented exactly here https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map.

I'm guessing the TC is the mean value for new cases each day in that 7 day period. So 6 represents 42 +/- ~3.5 new cases for the week.

The RR for 'this' week is simply derived from RR(last) * TC(this) / TC(last), which seems a bit basic to say the least.

My question for one of you smart cookies out there is:
Will this model stay proportionate to the number of active cases or will it drift off? i.e. with such a simple model, would an RR of say 100 this week represent exactly the same number of active cases if the RR returns to 100 after a month or two on the other side of a 'wave' for example.

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HMG Covid map stats explanation? on 06:30 - Dec 17 with 556 views

bluelagos

You are asking about the stats on the map?

Looks to me that the rolling rate is simply the cases perr 100k of population.

Cases over a 7 day period hence the use of "rolling".

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HMG Covid map stats explanation? on 10:01 - Dec 17 with 465 views

StokieBlue

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/about-data#methodologies

Looks like it's a simple 7 day rolling average. If this is the case then it will remain consistent if similar numbers are posted in a few months time. I can't see the TC number you are referring to on that link so I am not sure about that.

I guess using a rolling average makes some sense for smoothing but perhaps a longer period EMA would show spikes quicker given it would weight more recent numbers more highly than earlier numbers. With a RA it takes a while for spikes to show up.

SB

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HMG Covid map stats explanation? on 10:46 - Dec 17 with 430 views

factual_blue

HMG Covid map stats explanation? on 06:30 - Dec 17 by bluelagos
You are asking about the stats on the map? Looks to me that the rolling rate is simply the cases perr 100k of population. Cases over a 7 day period hence the use of "rolling".

Given this government's abysmal behaviour, it's actually the trolling rate.

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