| Vaccine process was just quietly changed by the Government on 08:14 - Dec 30 with 5868 views | homer_123 |
Interesting but not surprising...calls for no one to receive 2nd dose wasn't there? Still effective without but not as effective? Also...suspect logistics are now playing a part as well as the number of Covid cases rapidly increasing? |  |
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| Vaccine process was just quietly changed by the Government on 08:20 - Dec 30 with 5848 views | m14_blue |
Seems to make sense to me, get most people mostly protected rather than half as many people completely protected.
Get us through the next few months as best as possible and then review. |  | | |
| Vaccine process was just quietly changed by the Government on 08:28 - Dec 30 with 5826 views | Ace_High1 |
get it rolled out now Grizzers.
I have seen some comments from GP's and Dentists saying lets have a 6-12 weeks restrictions now and mass vaccinate as many as we can using them as well as the NHS?
Light at the end of the tunnel but one word of caution - our Government - we are relying on this lot rolling this out. |  | | |
| Vaccine process was just quietly changed by the Government on 08:35 - Dec 30 with 5789 views | ElderGrizzly |
| Vaccine process was just quietly changed by the Government on 08:20 - Dec 30 by m14_blue |
Seems to make sense to me, get most people mostly protected rather than half as many people completely protected.
Get us through the next few months as best as possible and then review. |
Yet none of the trials tested the vaccine at 12 week dose intervals.
So this could make the 2nd dose much less effective.
Also, as it stands, the Astra Zeneca regimen approved is the 62% efficacy one, not the 90% one. |  | | |
| Vaccine process was just quietly changed by the Government on 08:42 - Dec 30 with 5752 views | GlasgowBlue |
You’re doing it again with the misleading negative thread titles EG. Not sure why you are constantly doing this?
Far from your claim that the government had quietly changed the timeframe against the recommendation, your own link states..
“The Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) has advised the priority should be to give as many people in at-risk groups their first dose, rather than providing the required two doses in as short a time as possible”.
“The JCVI’s independent advice is that this approach will maximise the benefits of both vaccines. It will ensure that more at-risk people are able to get meaningful protection from a vaccine in the coming weeks and months, reducing deaths and starting to ease pressure on our NHS.
Seriously, what is there to disagree with on this decision? We have a new variant that is 70% more infectious, which is leading to far more people catching the virus which will ultimately lead to far more deaths. We no longer have the luxury of giving two doses in a short time
As your own link says, the second dose is for longer term protection but in the short term we need to “ vaccinate a greater number of people who are at highest risk, protecting them from the disease and reducing mortality and hospitalisation”. [Post edited 30 Dec 2020 8:42]
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| Vaccine process was just quietly changed by the Government on 08:49 - Dec 30 with 5726 views | StokieBlue |
| Vaccine process was just quietly changed by the Government on 08:14 - Dec 30 by homer_123 |
Interesting but not surprising...calls for no one to receive 2nd dose wasn't there? Still effective without but not as effective? Also...suspect logistics are now playing a part as well as the number of Covid cases rapidly increasing? |
The trials weren't done on this type of schedule though. When it's been mentioned a number of experts are against it as the first dose might only provide very limited protection below the required efficacy rate. For Pfizer the efficacy after the first dose was at most 52%.
If you opened up on that basis then loads of people would still be getting and spreading covid.
It's worth discussing but there is no actual data that using 12 weeks. If there was a lockdown then there wouldn't need to be a rush to vaccinate using an interest method that it wasn't designed for.
SB |  |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Vaccine process was just quietly changed by the Government on 08:51 - Dec 30 with 5721 views | DebsyAngel |
I am scared that this one dose is not going to be enough to protect/last. And I am scared that the rollout will be as haphazard as what the flu jabs were this year. My GPs are useless -cannot even get a simple prescription sorted out for me, which has resulted in weeks of stress and chasing up, and they didn't even do my flu jab - had to get done at Boots. I do not want another year of sitting in these 4 walls as too scared to go out. I have no idea when my husband will get his jab as he is in his early 40s with no health issues. It's good news but will they mess it up? This government promise too much and rarely deliver. |  | | |
| Vaccine process was just quietly changed by the Government on 08:54 - Dec 30 with 5705 views | ElderGrizzly |
| Vaccine process was just quietly changed by the Government on 08:42 - Dec 30 by GlasgowBlue |
You’re doing it again with the misleading negative thread titles EG. Not sure why you are constantly doing this?
Far from your claim that the government had quietly changed the timeframe against the recommendation, your own link states..
“The Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) has advised the priority should be to give as many people in at-risk groups their first dose, rather than providing the required two doses in as short a time as possible”.
“The JCVI’s independent advice is that this approach will maximise the benefits of both vaccines. It will ensure that more at-risk people are able to get meaningful protection from a vaccine in the coming weeks and months, reducing deaths and starting to ease pressure on our NHS.
Seriously, what is there to disagree with on this decision? We have a new variant that is 70% more infectious, which is leading to far more people catching the virus which will ultimately lead to far more deaths. We no longer have the luxury of giving two doses in a short time
As your own link says, the second dose is for longer term protection but in the short term we need to “ vaccinate a greater number of people who are at highest risk, protecting them from the disease and reducing mortality and hospitalisation”. [Post edited 30 Dec 2020 8:42]
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Nothing I have put is misleading. The recommendation I refer to is the manufacturers of the vaccine, not the arms length government body JCVI.
The ‘quietly changed it’, refers to putting it into a good news press release about the approval of another vaccine.
All the vaccines were tested at 4 to 6 week dose intervals, not 12 weeks. A lot of Drs are commenting on that right now, so we don’t know how effective the 2nd dose will be after 12 weeks.
Plus, we are using the AZ vaccine at most 62% efficacy due to the 2 dose regimen being approved, not the 1 1/2 dose that delivers 90%.
One dose of Pfizer or Moderna got you to 80%. One dose of AZ gets you to about 50%.
The 2nd doses increase effectiveness AND offer longer term protection. [Post edited 30 Dec 2020 8:54]
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| Vaccine process was just quietly changed by the Government on 08:54 - Dec 30 with 5695 views | GlasgowBlue |
| Vaccine process was just quietly changed by the Government on 08:51 - Dec 30 by DebsyAngel |
I am scared that this one dose is not going to be enough to protect/last. And I am scared that the rollout will be as haphazard as what the flu jabs were this year. My GPs are useless -cannot even get a simple prescription sorted out for me, which has resulted in weeks of stress and chasing up, and they didn't even do my flu jab - had to get done at Boots. I do not want another year of sitting in these 4 walls as too scared to go out. I have no idea when my husband will get his jab as he is in his early 40s with no health issues. It's good news but will they mess it up? This government promise too much and rarely deliver. |
As stated, it protects in the short term but a second dose is needed for the long term.
Given the choice between getting as many vulnerable people vaccinated for short term protection against vaccinating less people, but doing so for the long terms it really is a no brainier. | |
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| Vaccine process was just quietly changed by the Government on 08:57 - Dec 30 with 5683 views | TractorWood |
| Vaccine process was just quietly changed by the Government on 08:35 - Dec 30 by ElderGrizzly |
Yet none of the trials tested the vaccine at 12 week dose intervals.
So this could make the 2nd dose much less effective.
Also, as it stands, the Astra Zeneca regimen approved is the 62% efficacy one, not the 90% one. |
Seems mad to be wasting the 90% potential of the AZ vaccine but equally they've only trialled it on like 150 people. AZ have done great to get a vaccine but PR, clinical confidence and clarity couldn't have been worse. |  |
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| Vaccine process was just quietly changed by the Government on 08:57 - Dec 30 with 5679 views | GlasgowBlue |
| Vaccine process was just quietly changed by the Government on 08:54 - Dec 30 by ElderGrizzly |
Nothing I have put is misleading. The recommendation I refer to is the manufacturers of the vaccine, not the arms length government body JCVI.
The ‘quietly changed it’, refers to putting it into a good news press release about the approval of another vaccine.
All the vaccines were tested at 4 to 6 week dose intervals, not 12 weeks. A lot of Drs are commenting on that right now, so we don’t know how effective the 2nd dose will be after 12 weeks.
Plus, we are using the AZ vaccine at most 62% efficacy due to the 2 dose regimen being approved, not the 1 1/2 dose that delivers 90%.
One dose of Pfizer or Moderna got you to 80%. One dose of AZ gets you to about 50%.
The 2nd doses increase effectiveness AND offer longer term protection. [Post edited 30 Dec 2020 8:54]
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The “arms length government body” is made up of the following people:
Professor Andrew Pollard, Chair (University of Oxford)
Professor Wei Shen Lim, Chair COVID-19 immunisation (Nottingham University Hospitals)
Professor Anthony Harnden, Deputy Chair (University of Oxford)
Professor Judith Breuer (University College Hospital)
Dr Peter Elton (Greater Manchester, Lancashire, South Cumbria Strategic Clinical Network)
Dr Maggie Wearmouth (East Sussex Healthcare NHS Trust)
Professor Matt Keeling (University of Warwick)
Alison Lawrence (lay member)
Professor Robert Read (Southampton General Hospital)
Professor Anthony Scott (London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine)
Professor Adam Finn (University of Bristol)
Dr Fiona van der Klis (National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Netherlands)
Professor Maarten Postma (University of Groningen)
Professor Simon Kroll (Imperial College London)
Dr Martin Williams (University Hospitals Bristol)
Professor Jeremy Brown (University College London Hospitals)
You could equally say that SAGE is an at arms length government body. [Post edited 30 Dec 2020 9:02]
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| Vaccine process was just quietly changed by the Government on 09:02 - Dec 30 with 5654 views | DebsyAngel |
| Vaccine process was just quietly changed by the Government on 08:54 - Dec 30 by GlasgowBlue |
As stated, it protects in the short term but a second dose is needed for the long term.
Given the choice between getting as many vulnerable people vaccinated for short term protection against vaccinating less people, but doing so for the long terms it really is a no brainier. |
Maybe I just don;t understand then - the way it was tested and got passed was the second dose being done in a month after the first one. I guess time will tell but with this government, it's all bells and whistles followed by BUT..... and something that makes me lose confidence in anything they promise. And we still have no idea how long the vaccine lasts before becoming less effective. Don't get me wrong - I want to be vaccinated but need to be 100% sure that I will be protected and will it effect other medical problems I have? | | | |
| Vaccine process was just quietly changed by the Government on 09:04 - Dec 30 with 5642 views | StokieBlue |
| Vaccine process was just quietly changed by the Government on 08:54 - Dec 30 by GlasgowBlue |
As stated, it protects in the short term but a second dose is needed for the long term.
Given the choice between getting as many vulnerable people vaccinated for short term protection against vaccinating less people, but doing so for the long terms it really is a no brainier. |
I think we need to be careful here GB with how this is being presented.
That isn't how the vaccine works. It doesn't give 90+% short term protection if you have a single does. Pfizer gives at best 52% protection after a single dose even over the longer term. If you have the second dose it's then 90+% over the longer term.
Given this using only a single vaccination would mean that people are then going around thinking they are protected when really they still have a 50/50 chance of getting C19.
Given we have a lot of doses of the Oxford vaccine available in about a week it seems strange to go for such a low efficacy which wouldn't allow anything to really open up. We can start vaccinating everyone properly in a week from a lot more locations as it doesn't require cold storage.
SB | |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Vaccine process was just quietly changed by the Government on 09:10 - Dec 30 with 5603 views | IpswichKnight |
Isn’t this what Tony Blair suggested we should do? | | | |
| Vaccine process was just quietly changed by the Government on 09:14 - Dec 30 with 5579 views | GlasgowBlue |
| Vaccine process was just quietly changed by the Government on 09:04 - Dec 30 by StokieBlue |
I think we need to be careful here GB with how this is being presented.
That isn't how the vaccine works. It doesn't give 90+% short term protection if you have a single does. Pfizer gives at best 52% protection after a single dose even over the longer term. If you have the second dose it's then 90+% over the longer term.
Given this using only a single vaccination would mean that people are then going around thinking they are protected when really they still have a 50/50 chance of getting C19.
Given we have a lot of doses of the Oxford vaccine available in about a week it seems strange to go for such a low efficacy which wouldn't allow anything to really open up. We can start vaccinating everyone properly in a week from a lot more locations as it doesn't require cold storage.
SB |
I’m going by what is said in EG’s link.
Isn’t this pretty much what Tony Blair was saying a couple of weeks ago? Had the new strain not put a massive spanner in the works then two doses in a shorter time frame would make sense. But the new variant has changed everything.
[Post edited 30 Dec 2020 9:15]
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| Vaccine process was just quietly changed by the Government on 09:18 - Dec 30 with 5559 views | mikeybloo88 |
The Pfizer vaccine should now just be used for NHS staff and over 70s. The Oxford vaccine should be given first to teachers to try and keep schools going (maybe lecturers too to try and get unis and colleges started again), then to medically vulnerable people, then to the 50-70 year old group as they are able to contribute most out of the priority groupings to getting the economy going again. Anyone who doesn't want their first allocated dose of the Oxford vaccine because they think it's not effective enough can pass and let one of the many who do want it have it instead... |  | | |
| Vaccine process was just quietly changed by the Government on 09:18 - Dec 30 with 5560 views | TractorWood |
| Vaccine process was just quietly changed by the Government on 09:04 - Dec 30 by StokieBlue |
I think we need to be careful here GB with how this is being presented.
That isn't how the vaccine works. It doesn't give 90+% short term protection if you have a single does. Pfizer gives at best 52% protection after a single dose even over the longer term. If you have the second dose it's then 90+% over the longer term.
Given this using only a single vaccination would mean that people are then going around thinking they are protected when really they still have a 50/50 chance of getting C19.
Given we have a lot of doses of the Oxford vaccine available in about a week it seems strange to go for such a low efficacy which wouldn't allow anything to really open up. We can start vaccinating everyone properly in a week from a lot more locations as it doesn't require cold storage.
SB |
Per BBC on AZ
''Crucially, no-one who received at least one dose of the vaccine was hospitalised with Covid''.
It's a game changer in the current situation but it needs maximising. [Post edited 30 Dec 2020 9:19]
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| Vaccine process was just quietly changed by the Government on 09:18 - Dec 30 with 5553 views | ElderGrizzly |
| Vaccine process was just quietly changed by the Government on 08:57 - Dec 30 by TractorWood |
Seems mad to be wasting the 90% potential of the AZ vaccine but equally they've only trialled it on like 150 people. AZ have done great to get a vaccine but PR, clinical confidence and clarity couldn't have been worse. |
AZ half dose was done on about 2,500 in the end. Still not a lot compared to the other trial.
From BBC:
“There was not enough clear data to approve the half-dose,full-dose regimen” | | | |
| Vaccine process was just quietly changed by the Government on 09:19 - Dec 30 with 5536 views | TractorWood |
| Vaccine process was just quietly changed by the Government on 09:18 - Dec 30 by ElderGrizzly |
AZ half dose was done on about 2,500 in the end. Still not a lot compared to the other trial.
From BBC:
“There was not enough clear data to approve the half-dose,full-dose regimen” |
Thanks. I imagine that needs to be 15k+ | |
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| Vaccine process was just quietly changed by the Government on 09:21 - Dec 30 with 5527 views | ElderGrizzly |
| Vaccine process was just quietly changed by the Government on 08:57 - Dec 30 by GlasgowBlue |
The “arms length government body” is made up of the following people:
Professor Andrew Pollard, Chair (University of Oxford)
Professor Wei Shen Lim, Chair COVID-19 immunisation (Nottingham University Hospitals)
Professor Anthony Harnden, Deputy Chair (University of Oxford)
Professor Judith Breuer (University College Hospital)
Dr Peter Elton (Greater Manchester, Lancashire, South Cumbria Strategic Clinical Network)
Dr Maggie Wearmouth (East Sussex Healthcare NHS Trust)
Professor Matt Keeling (University of Warwick)
Alison Lawrence (lay member)
Professor Robert Read (Southampton General Hospital)
Professor Anthony Scott (London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine)
Professor Adam Finn (University of Bristol)
Dr Fiona van der Klis (National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Netherlands)
Professor Maarten Postma (University of Groningen)
Professor Simon Kroll (Imperial College London)
Dr Martin Williams (University Hospitals Bristol)
Professor Jeremy Brown (University College London Hospitals)
You could equally say that SAGE is an at arms length government body. [Post edited 30 Dec 2020 9:02]
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Are you really that naive to not understand how these bodies take ‘direction’?
I’ve sat in on meetings of other arms length advisory bodies to the FCDO. They aren’t independent.
And yes, SAGE is not independent. Hence why a second group of experts set up “Independent SAGE” | | | |
| Vaccine process was just quietly changed by the Government on 09:23 - Dec 30 with 5508 views | ElderGrizzly |
| Vaccine process was just quietly changed by the Government on 09:04 - Dec 30 by StokieBlue |
I think we need to be careful here GB with how this is being presented.
That isn't how the vaccine works. It doesn't give 90+% short term protection if you have a single does. Pfizer gives at best 52% protection after a single dose even over the longer term. If you have the second dose it's then 90+% over the longer term.
Given this using only a single vaccination would mean that people are then going around thinking they are protected when really they still have a 50/50 chance of getting C19.
Given we have a lot of doses of the Oxford vaccine available in about a week it seems strange to go for such a low efficacy which wouldn't allow anything to really open up. We can start vaccinating everyone properly in a week from a lot more locations as it doesn't require cold storage.
SB |
Agree. Ironic when GB is trying to accuse me of misrepresenting what the Govt said, that he misrepresents how these vaccines work. | | | |
| Vaccine process was just quietly changed by the Government on 09:29 - Dec 30 with 5454 views | StokieBlue |
| Vaccine process was just quietly changed by the Government on 09:14 - Dec 30 by GlasgowBlue |
I’m going by what is said in EG’s link.
Isn’t this pretty much what Tony Blair was saying a couple of weeks ago? Had the new strain not put a massive spanner in the works then two doses in a shorter time frame would make sense. But the new variant has changed everything.
[Post edited 30 Dec 2020 9:15]
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Yes, Blair was pushing this on Radio 4 the other week.
So the recommendation in that link goes against what the data from Pfizer themselves says about their vaccine in that it only offers 52% protection with one dose. I believe in the statement when they say "longer term protection" they mean that the second dose ups that to 90+% and you are safe for the year. One dose will help but it doesn't make you safe. I suspect it will have to be one dose and then another two months lockdown otherwise people are still going to get C19 in huge numbers.
From the BMJ:
https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4826
"The Pfizer and BioNTech covid-19 vaccine may provide some early protection, starting 12 days after the first dose, the peer reviewed results of a phase III trial have found.
The study, published in the New England Journal of Medicine,1 found that vaccine efficacy between the first and second doses was 52% (95% credible interval 29.5% to 68.4%), with 39 cases of covid-19 in the vaccine group and 82 cases in the placebo group.
Seven or more days after the second dose, vaccine efficacy then rose to 95% (90.3% to 97.6%), with eight covid-19 cases reported in the vaccine group and 162 cases in the placebo group."
You're right that the new variant has changed a lot of things but I've not seen anything that has changed the science and data around a single dose of the Pfizer vaccine (I clearly don't read everything though).
As for the Oxford, we surely have enough of that to follow the prescribed dose routine anyway.
My worry is that this could lead to a false sense of security for many people who don't know about or just aren't interested in the science behind the vaccines. I don't see how they can open up anything more than now even with a single dose program.
I am sure it will all become clearer as more data is released and more evaluations made by experts of that data.
SB | |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Vaccine process was just quietly changed by the Government on 09:31 - Dec 30 with 5436 views | GeoffSentence |
| Vaccine process was just quietly changed by the Government on 08:35 - Dec 30 by ElderGrizzly |
Yet none of the trials tested the vaccine at 12 week dose intervals.
So this could make the 2nd dose much less effective.
Also, as it stands, the Astra Zeneca regimen approved is the 62% efficacy one, not the 90% one. |
Expert on R4 today was saying that efficacy improves with a longer period between the two doses.
Also, in trials, no-one who got the first dose went on to get seriously ill with covid.
If this means that we can keep more people out of hospital at the cost of having more mild cases, then I am in favour of it. |  |
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| Vaccine process was just quietly changed by the Government on 09:33 - Dec 30 with 5423 views | StokieBlue |
| Vaccine process was just quietly changed by the Government on 09:18 - Dec 30 by TractorWood |
Per BBC on AZ
''Crucially, no-one who received at least one dose of the vaccine was hospitalised with Covid''.
It's a game changer in the current situation but it needs maximising. [Post edited 30 Dec 2020 9:19]
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That's not evidence that it provides protection at one dose though. It was also tested at a time when C19 wasn't so rampant and there wasn't a new variant. It seems a huge gamble to do a test on a sample size of millions when the recommended structure is two doses.
We all want to see the back of C19 but I worry that proper advice isn't being taken for political ends. I'd prefer a strict lockdown and then vaccinations done as per the developers guidelines.
SB | |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Vaccine process was just quietly changed by the Government on 09:33 - Dec 30 with 5418 views | ElderGrizzly |
| Vaccine process was just quietly changed by the Government on 09:29 - Dec 30 by StokieBlue |
Yes, Blair was pushing this on Radio 4 the other week.
So the recommendation in that link goes against what the data from Pfizer themselves says about their vaccine in that it only offers 52% protection with one dose. I believe in the statement when they say "longer term protection" they mean that the second dose ups that to 90+% and you are safe for the year. One dose will help but it doesn't make you safe. I suspect it will have to be one dose and then another two months lockdown otherwise people are still going to get C19 in huge numbers.
From the BMJ:
https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4826
"The Pfizer and BioNTech covid-19 vaccine may provide some early protection, starting 12 days after the first dose, the peer reviewed results of a phase III trial have found.
The study, published in the New England Journal of Medicine,1 found that vaccine efficacy between the first and second doses was 52% (95% credible interval 29.5% to 68.4%), with 39 cases of covid-19 in the vaccine group and 82 cases in the placebo group.
Seven or more days after the second dose, vaccine efficacy then rose to 95% (90.3% to 97.6%), with eight covid-19 cases reported in the vaccine group and 162 cases in the placebo group."
You're right that the new variant has changed a lot of things but I've not seen anything that has changed the science and data around a single dose of the Pfizer vaccine (I clearly don't read everything though).
As for the Oxford, we surely have enough of that to follow the prescribed dose routine anyway.
My worry is that this could lead to a false sense of security for many people who don't know about or just aren't interested in the science behind the vaccines. I don't see how they can open up anything more than now even with a single dose program.
I am sure it will all become clearer as more data is released and more evaluations made by experts of that data.
SB |
The Government have said we need to get the vulnerable vaccinated first before easing restrictions.
That is 25million by their own calculations. At 1 million a week, that will take 6 months just with one dose. | | | |
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