Forum | Has the R number been revised down a bit? by NthQldITFC

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Has the R number been revised down a bit? 17:07 - Jan 3 with 4663 views

For those who've been looking at the localised map at https://localcovid.info/map.html, it looks to me that the 'actual' values for the last week or so and the forecast now are significantly lower than when I looked at them around Christmas time. If so that's a bit of encouragement. Or am I 'mis-remembering'?

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Has the R number been revised down a bit? on 17:20 - Jan 3 with 2368 views

Trequartista

Can see what you mean - drag that date picker back to Dec 10 and its red nearly everywhere, yet the latest data has a lot of blue, even in Kent.

This doesn't seem to tally with the high infection rates we are seeing, and the assumption that the new strain, which is now dominant, pushes the R up by 0.4

Others might be able to explain it.

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Has the R number been revised down a bit? on 17:24 - Jan 3 with 2339 views

lowhouseblue

Has the R number been revised down a bit? on 17:20 - Jan 3 by Trequartista
Can see what you mean - drag that date picker back to Dec 10 and its red nearly everywhere, yet the latest data has a lot of blue, even in Kent. This doesn't seem to tally with the high infection rates we are seeing, and the assumption that the new strain, which is now dominant, pushes the R up by 0.4 Others might be able to explain it.

was speaking to someone in one of the bits of kent which was seeing explosive growth a few weeks ago. apparently their numbers have newcomer down hugely. if that's right it's surprising given the high incidence of the new strain.

And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show

Has the R number been revised down a bit? on 17:48 - Jan 3 with 2260 views

Trequartista

Has the R number been revised down a bit? on 17:24 - Jan 3 by lowhouseblue
was speaking to someone in one of the bits of kent which was seeing explosive growth a few weeks ago. apparently their numbers have newcomer down hugely. if that's right it's surprising given the high incidence of the new strain.

Looking at some random Kent figures from a week ago, Dover went down from 855 to 532 cases and Thanet 3128 to 2421, big drops, so your anecdotal evidence seems borne out.

This seems to be replicated in areas that initially went into Tier 4 in Essex where both Chelmsford and Brentwood (20%) are down. Whereas areas later into Tier 4 such as Colchester and Ipswich are still rising.

East London is still seeing big increases still in Barking, Newham.

So i wonder if Tier 4 is reducing the R in areas with no big urban centres (Kent and Essex). Although the strain is more transmissible, if you keep away from people it has no chance to display this (as simple as that may sound).

[Post edited 3 Jan 2021 17:49]

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Has the R number been revised down a bit? on 17:50 - Jan 3 with 2238 views

WD19

Has the R number been revised down a bit? on 17:24 - Jan 3 by lowhouseblue
was speaking to someone in one of the bits of kent which was seeing explosive growth a few weeks ago. apparently their numbers have newcomer down hugely. if that's right it's surprising given the high incidence of the new strain.

It’s always going to be an inexact science guesstimating the transmission rate of the new strain in and amongst everything else. Clearly I know nothing, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it turns out it is not much more contagious than before.....it’s just more of a case that this variant runs through kids more easily.....who haven’t been mixing much for 2 weeks. Maybe that is just hope.

Has the R number been revised down a bit? on 18:06 - Jan 3 with 2182 views

StokieBlue

Has the R number been revised down a bit? on 17:20 - Jan 3 by Trequartista
Can see what you mean - drag that date picker back to Dec 10 and its red nearly everywhere, yet the latest data has a lot of blue, even in Kent. This doesn't seem to tally with the high infection rates we are seeing, and the assumption that the new strain, which is now dominant, pushes the R up by 0.4 Others might be able to explain it.

The latest study from Imperial cites that the VOC202012/01 strain put the R value up by between 0.4 and 0.7 which is an increase on the preliminary studies.

I'll look at the actual data in the tool after dinner but I wouldn't expect anywhere to be below 1.2 given this (based on the fact we couldn't really ever get the R<0.8 for the previous strain and this one adds at least 0.4). I would expect many regions to be R>1.5.

SB

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Has the R number been revised down a bit? on 18:12 - Jan 3 with 2168 views

ElderGrizzly

I’d be astonished if it has, certainly based on what is going on in London hospitals

It appears out of control

The number in hospital continues to rise above the April high, (up 38% over the week), and is now 22% higher than at that first wave peak. Ventilator bed occupancy is still below its peak, but is now rising very rapidly - up 48% in a week. 2/3 pic.twitter.com/rUwsNuAiKJ
— John Roberts (@john_actuary) January 3, 2021

Has the R number been revised down a bit? on 18:20 - Jan 3 with 2137 views

Trequartista

Has the R number been revised down a bit? on 18:06 - Jan 3 by StokieBlue

It seems to me that the 'R' has a huge regional variance so if the national 'R' is 1.2-1.4 it could be 0.8-1.0 in some areas and 1.6-1.8 in others.

Indeed going by the map cited in the op, on Dec 5, Brentwood was at 1.7-2.4 and Thurrock 1.8-2.5

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Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 18:41 - Jan 3 with 2069 views

Bloots

Has the R number been revised down a bit? on 18:12 - Jan 3 by ElderGrizzly

I’d be astonished if it has, certainly based on what is going on in London hospitals

It appears out of control

The number in hospital continues to rise above the April high, (up 38% over the week), and is now 22% higher than at that first wave peak. Ventilator bed occupancy is still below its peak, but is now rising very rapidly - up 48% in a week. 2/3 pic.twitter.com/rUwsNuAiKJ
— John Roberts (@john_actuary) January 3, 2021

....little ray of sunshine.

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Has the R number been revised down a bit? on 18:43 - Jan 3 with 2060 views

Dennyx4

Has the R number been revised down a bit? on 17:48 - Jan 3 by Trequartista

[Post edited 3 Jan 2021 17:49]

Is it because there were less tests carried out because it was Christmas?

Has the R number been revised down a bit? on 18:55 - Jan 3 with 2023 views

vapour_trail

Has the R number been revised down a bit? on 17:48 - Jan 3 by Trequartista

[Post edited 3 Jan 2021 17:49]

I’m in Kent.

We’ve been locked down for two months now, since the start of November, you’d want to see some impact on the back of that. Where I am, the first fall in numbers was the seven days to 25 Dec.

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Has the R number been revised down a bit? on 18:58 - Jan 3 with 2018 views

Trequartista

Has the R number been revised down a bit? on 18:43 - Jan 3 by Dennyx4
Is it because there were less tests carried out because it was Christmas?

No, there were more tests

I took my figures from Dec22-Dec28. Dec 22,23 and 24 saw the highest amount of testing so far in the entire pandemic in the UK, it drops back for Dec 25-28 but still higher than the normal weekend testing levels

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing

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Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 19:47 - Jan 3 with 1942 views

ElderGrizzly

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 18:41 - Jan 3 by Bloots
....little ray of sunshine.

I try. You wait until Tier 5 arrives on Thursday :)

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 20:23 - Jan 3 with 1901 views

factual_blue

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 19:47 - Jan 3 by ElderGrizzly
I try. You wait until Tier 5 arrives on Thursday :)

We know you're trying.

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26_Paz

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 19:47 - Jan 3 by ElderGrizzly
I try. You wait until Tier 5 arrives on Thursday :)

What’s going to be in tier 5? Schools aside there’s not much left to close ...

The Paz Man

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 20:42 - Jan 3 with 1852 views

WD19

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 20:24 - Jan 3 by 26_Paz
What’s going to be in tier 5? Schools aside there’s not much left to close ...

I think you have just answered your own question.

Although I guess they could go back to rationing ppl leaving their house and ban meeting out of home. They should definitely prevent ppl going to the supermarket in groups larger than 1.

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 20:48 - Jan 3 with 1814 views

26_Paz

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 20:42 - Jan 3 by WD19
I think you have just answered your own question. Although I guess they could go back to rationing ppl leaving their house and ban meeting out of home. They should definitely prevent ppl going to the supermarket in groups larger than 1.

It’s only meeting one person outside at the moment anyway I think ... I can’t imagine getting rid of that will make any difference.
The one hour outside thing is just completely unenforceable as well ... and in all honesty I can’t see what harm going for a run before work and then maybe a walk to clear the head after does either ...

The Paz Man

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 20:51 - Jan 3 with 1806 views

blueprint

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 20:42 - Jan 3 by WD19
I think you have just answered your own question. Although I guess they could go back to rationing ppl leaving their house and ban meeting out of home. They should definitely prevent ppl going to the supermarket in groups larger than 1.

It astonishes me that couples still seem to be out shopping together when it’s just not necessary. To be honest my wife and I never go to supermarkets together even pre Covid.

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gordon

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 20:24 - Jan 3 by 26_Paz
What’s going to be in tier 5? Schools aside there’s not much left to close ...

Think TWTD shuts in Tier 8, if I remember right.

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 21:32 - Jan 3 with 1726 views

Mookamoo

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 20:42 - Jan 3 by WD19
I think you have just answered your own question. Although I guess they could go back to rationing ppl leaving their house and ban meeting out of home. They should definitely prevent ppl going to the supermarket in groups larger than 1.

Friend of mine lives on the outskirts of Paris. When they locked down in April only one person from the household was allowed out to do the shopping. No walks, nothing.

We at least need to stop anyone travelling under the guise of exercise. Too many people are taking the proverbial.

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 21:53 - Jan 3 with 1688 views

ElderGrizzly

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 21:32 - Jan 3 by Mookamoo
Friend of mine lives on the outskirts of Paris. When they locked down in April only one person from the household was allowed out to do the shopping. No walks, nothing. We at least need to stop anyone travelling under the guise of exercise. Too many people are taking the proverbial.

I’ve seen friends who are Airplane Spotters saying that counts as exercise, as it is outdoors.

Agree, we need people to make better decisions and less selfish ones

Has the R number been revised down a bit? on 22:00 - Jan 3 with 1668 views

pointofblue

Has the R number been revised down a bit? on 18:12 - Jan 3 by ElderGrizzly

I’d be astonished if it has, certainly based on what is going on in London hospitals

It appears out of control

The number in hospital continues to rise above the April high, (up 38% over the week), and is now 22% higher than at that first wave peak. Ventilator bed occupancy is still below its peak, but is now rising very rapidly - up 48% in a week. 2/3 pic.twitter.com/rUwsNuAiKJ
— John Roberts (@john_actuary) January 3, 2021

Scrabbling for positivity, don't hospitals tend to be a couple of weeks behind case count? So if the case count starts to decrease it won't show in the hospital count for a further fortnight.

To put it bluntly the whole country needs to go back into the original lockdown set up. I understand the pressures for schools and children's education but the scales have tipped towards health issues in a very dramatic way.

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Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 22:09 - Jan 3 with 1641 views

bluelagos

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 21:53 - Jan 3 by ElderGrizzly
I’ve seen friends who are Airplane Spotters saying that counts as exercise, as it is outdoors. Agree, we need people to make better decisions and less selfish ones

1. You are allowed outside for recreation.

2. Struggling to see why looking at the sky is dangerous.

3. Strugggling to see why looking at the sky is selfish.

If your friends find it helps them and they are not in a group, have no objections whatsoever tbh.

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Has the R number been revised down a bit? on 22:12 - Jan 3 with 1630 views

Trequartista

Has the R number been revised down a bit? on 22:00 - Jan 3 by pointofblue

Possibly but the 'R' rate reducing in London and hospital cases rising is not contradictory because the 'R' rate is still above 1.0

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Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 22:14 - Jan 3 with 1602 views

26_Paz

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 22:09 - Jan 3 by bluelagos
1. You are allowed outside for recreation. 2. Struggling to see why looking at the sky is dangerous. 3. Strugggling to see why looking at the sky is selfish. If your friends find it helps them and they are not in a group, have no objections whatsoever tbh.

Tend to agree with this. They’re outside getting their exercise, maybe they can’t run or walk long distances but if they want to spend a couple of hours outside looking at planes on their own then I’d think they’re a bit weird but why on earth not!

The Paz Man

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 22:15 - Jan 3 with 1603 views

Trequartista

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 20:24 - Jan 3 by 26_Paz
What’s going to be in tier 5? Schools aside there’s not much left to close ...

Would imagine it is schools closing.

Looking at the case data and the R rates in the op, it would seem a good idea to close schools in London where Tier 4 has failed to reduce the R below 1.0 and leave them open in Kent and South and West Essex where Tier 4 appears to have done the job, with decisions pending on areas that went into Tier 4 on Boxing Day when we get the next batch of data.

[Post edited 3 Jan 2021 22:16]

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