| UK excess deaths data for 2020 23:32 - Jan 6 with 1816 views | StokieBlue |
Hopefully this will finally put to bed the few people who still claim it's been no different to any other year, the NHS is always stretched and the flu kills lots of people every year.
The main points are below and the thread and please remember this was all whilst having unprecedented restrictions to try and curb C19.
- The first 3 months of 2020 were below the 5 year average for excess deaths.
- 73,000 excess deaths, 14% above the 5 year average and the worst in 100 years
- More excess deaths than in 1951, the year of a very major flu epidemic but no restrictions.
- Only one other year also topped 600,000 deaths - 1918 and the Spanish flu.
It's unbelievably important that the vaccine is being rolled out, there were over 1000 deaths today and there are over 31000 people in hospital with C19 and we probably aren't near the top of the peak from the new variant. It's unthinkable what would have happened if the virus had been able to run free with no restrictions at all.
Stay safe everyone, hopefully by the summer we will see the end of the tunnel.
SB |  |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| UK excess deaths data for 2020 on 23:49 - Jan 6 with 1743 views | Guthrum |
Also, bear in mind the 5-year average includes a very bad 'flu winter (2017-18, IIRC?). Which makes the current figures actually look better than they should. |  |
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| UK excess deaths data for 2020 on 00:18 - Jan 7 with 1686 views | Lord_Lucan |
| UK excess deaths data for 2020 on 23:49 - Jan 6 by Guthrum |
Also, bear in mind the 5-year average includes a very bad 'flu winter (2017-18, IIRC?). Which makes the current figures actually look better than they should. |
But it's all just a wake up.
So let's say we have 75,000 deaths. We know that most of these people were just about hanging on anyway. Yes there are many whose life have been taken away early, I'm not trying to deflect from that. I urge everyone not to twist this.
What I am trying to clumsily say is watch out! Prepare! We have a situation at present where reportably 1/50 has the virus (not sure about that but hey ho)
In our lifetime we have never had to deal with this sort of thing and let's be honest, we never thought it would happen. Imagine though something more serious. Let's hope we can stabalise after this Mother. |  |
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| UK excess deaths data for 2020 on 00:22 - Jan 7 with 1670 views | Guthrum |
| UK excess deaths data for 2020 on 00:18 - Jan 7 by Lord_Lucan |
But it's all just a wake up.
So let's say we have 75,000 deaths. We know that most of these people were just about hanging on anyway. Yes there are many whose life have been taken away early, I'm not trying to deflect from that. I urge everyone not to twist this.
What I am trying to clumsily say is watch out! Prepare! We have a situation at present where reportably 1/50 has the virus (not sure about that but hey ho)
In our lifetime we have never had to deal with this sort of thing and let's be honest, we never thought it would happen. Imagine though something more serious. Let's hope we can stabalise after this Mother. |
Indeed. | |
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| UK excess deaths data for 2020 on 00:29 - Jan 7 with 1653 views | Illinoisblue |
Not to sound all Le Tissier about this, but you’d think by now we’d have seen news stories about funeral homes being overwhelmed and unable to cope with all the extra deaths. Of course, just because I haven’t seen stories doesn’t mean they don’t exist. Also, funeral homes might be much much busier but still able to cope. (How many funerals a week do they do? No idea) |  |
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| UK excess deaths data for 2020 on 00:40 - Jan 7 with 1624 views | catch74 |
| UK excess deaths data for 2020 on 00:29 - Jan 7 by Illinoisblue |
Not to sound all Le Tissier about this, but you’d think by now we’d have seen news stories about funeral homes being overwhelmed and unable to cope with all the extra deaths. Of course, just because I haven’t seen stories doesn’t mean they don’t exist. Also, funeral homes might be much much busier but still able to cope. (How many funerals a week do they do? No idea) |
The cases have gone crazy for the last week especially, this will be seen in the deaths in a week or two’s time. Scarily 1000 people have very sadly died from covid today, the cases were easily half a couple of weeks ago. Don’t really want to think about where this is going, especially as the new strain is now worldwide. |  |
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| UK excess deaths data for 2020 on 07:23 - Jan 7 with 1469 views | Steve_M |
| UK excess deaths data for 2020 on 00:29 - Jan 7 by Illinoisblue |
Not to sound all Le Tissier about this, but you’d think by now we’d have seen news stories about funeral homes being overwhelmed and unable to cope with all the extra deaths. Of course, just because I haven’t seen stories doesn’t mean they don’t exist. Also, funeral homes might be much much busier but still able to cope. (How many funerals a week do they do? No idea) |
I think the UK deaths remain geographically fairly widely dispersed given the spread so there isn't - yet at least - the concentration of fatalities that Italy saw in the Spring. |  |
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| UK excess deaths data for 2020 on 08:14 - Jan 7 with 1401 views | StokieBlue |
| UK excess deaths data for 2020 on 00:18 - Jan 7 by Lord_Lucan |
But it's all just a wake up.
So let's say we have 75,000 deaths. We know that most of these people were just about hanging on anyway. Yes there are many whose life have been taken away early, I'm not trying to deflect from that. I urge everyone not to twist this.
What I am trying to clumsily say is watch out! Prepare! We have a situation at present where reportably 1/50 has the virus (not sure about that but hey ho)
In our lifetime we have never had to deal with this sort of thing and let's be honest, we never thought it would happen. Imagine though something more serious. Let's hope we can stabalise after this Mother. |
If you mean the general public didn't think it would happen then sure, however epidemiologists knew something like this would happen sooner rather than later. We were lucky that SARS and MERS weren't as contagious as C19, imagine C19 with a mortality rate of 20 to 35%.
You are totally correct that the government's of the works need to better find preparations for this type of event. I do think we will be better prepared next time (it will happen again but hopefully not for a long time) after this experience.
As an aside, there are a lot more "younger" people in hospital this time (perhaps due to the higher viral load the new variant creates). In London more than 50% of the people hospitalised with C19 are between 18 and 64.
SB | |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| UK excess deaths data for 2020 on 08:21 - Jan 7 with 1376 views | Pinewoodblue |
| UK excess deaths data for 2020 on 08:14 - Jan 7 by StokieBlue |
If you mean the general public didn't think it would happen then sure, however epidemiologists knew something like this would happen sooner rather than later. We were lucky that SARS and MERS weren't as contagious as C19, imagine C19 with a mortality rate of 20 to 35%.
You are totally correct that the government's of the works need to better find preparations for this type of event. I do think we will be better prepared next time (it will happen again but hopefully not for a long time) after this experience.
As an aside, there are a lot more "younger" people in hospital this time (perhaps due to the higher viral load the new variant creates). In London more than 50% of the people hospitalised with C19 are between 18 and 64.
SB |
It is going to get a lot worse in the short term. New cases, other than the new variant, seem to be leveling off but the new variant hasn’t peaked yet away from London, South East and East of England.
As numbers rise there will of course be those claiming lockdowns don’t work. They do if imposed soon enough. |  |
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| UK excess deaths data for 2020 on 08:28 - Jan 7 with 1357 views | StokieBlue |
| UK excess deaths data for 2020 on 08:21 - Jan 7 by Pinewoodblue |
It is going to get a lot worse in the short term. New cases, other than the new variant, seem to be leveling off but the new variant hasn’t peaked yet away from London, South East and East of England.
As numbers rise there will of course be those claiming lockdowns don’t work. They do if imposed soon enough. |
Yes, the next few weeks are going to be awful unfortunately. The new variant will now tend towards 100% of UK cases over the next few months unless a variant even more infectious comes along. It's just natural selection played out at an incredibly fast pace.
There is no argument which is based in fact or science that can be made to show that lockdowns don't control the R.
Anyone who tries to make one on that basis either doesn't understand the science or is being disingenuous for other purposes. There are of course other debates to be had around lockdown which are more valid but there is no longer any debate around controlling the R.
SB | |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| UK excess deaths data for 2020 on 09:15 - Jan 7 with 1279 views | hype313 |
| UK excess deaths data for 2020 on 00:40 - Jan 7 by catch74 |
The cases have gone crazy for the last week especially, this will be seen in the deaths in a week or two’s time. Scarily 1000 people have very sadly died from covid today, the cases were easily half a couple of weeks ago. Don’t really want to think about where this is going, especially as the new strain is now worldwide. |
1000 died in one day? That should shut up lockdown skeptics. |  |
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| UK excess deaths data for 2020 on 09:20 - Jan 7 with 1260 views | noggin |
| UK excess deaths data for 2020 on 00:29 - Jan 7 by Illinoisblue |
Not to sound all Le Tissier about this, but you’d think by now we’d have seen news stories about funeral homes being overwhelmed and unable to cope with all the extra deaths. Of course, just because I haven’t seen stories doesn’t mean they don’t exist. Also, funeral homes might be much much busier but still able to cope. (How many funerals a week do they do? No idea) |
It's funny, over here there are fewer people dying, no doubt due to the restrictions and use of PPE/hand washing. Funeral companies have actually been struggling financially because of the reduced death rates. Hopefully we can continue to keep the virus under relative control but there is a small spike happening right now. [Post edited 7 Jan 2021 9:22]
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| UK excess deaths data for 2020 on 10:09 - Jan 7 with 1179 views | StokieBlue |
| UK excess deaths data for 2020 on 09:15 - Jan 7 by hype313 |
1000 died in one day? That should shut up lockdown skeptics. |
1041 died yesterday unfortunately and there were 31000 people in hospital with C19. At the peak in April the most was 21000 people.
The new variant is just so much more infectious that it's hard to stop even with lockdowns, that is why the schools had to close. It's between 50% and 70% more infectious (the generally agreed amount is 57% more infectious I believe).
SB | |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| UK excess deaths data for 2020 on 10:12 - Jan 7 with 1174 views | Lord_Lucan |
| UK excess deaths data for 2020 on 08:14 - Jan 7 by StokieBlue |
If you mean the general public didn't think it would happen then sure, however epidemiologists knew something like this would happen sooner rather than later. We were lucky that SARS and MERS weren't as contagious as C19, imagine C19 with a mortality rate of 20 to 35%.
You are totally correct that the government's of the works need to better find preparations for this type of event. I do think we will be better prepared next time (it will happen again but hopefully not for a long time) after this experience.
As an aside, there are a lot more "younger" people in hospital this time (perhaps due to the higher viral load the new variant creates). In London more than 50% of the people hospitalised with C19 are between 18 and 64.
SB |
Actually your last para sums it up for me.
The amount of deaths we have in the great scheme of things is feck all at present. | |
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| UK excess deaths data for 2020 on 10:14 - Jan 7 with 1168 views | hype313 |
| UK excess deaths data for 2020 on 10:09 - Jan 7 by StokieBlue |
1041 died yesterday unfortunately and there were 31000 people in hospital with C19. At the peak in April the most was 21000 people.
The new variant is just so much more infectious that it's hard to stop even with lockdowns, that is why the schools had to close. It's between 50% and 70% more infectious (the generally agreed amount is 57% more infectious I believe).
SB |
I'm staying as far away as possible from anyone bar immediate family for the foreseeable, would be infuriating to catch it just as vaccines are on the horizon.
Having said that, I do believe I had it or something akin in March when I flew back from Germany and ended up with severe muscle pains and a nasty cough.
Either way, given the new variant, we should all just sit tight for the next 4 -6 weeks and hope things dramatically improve. | |
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| UK excess deaths data for 2020 on 15:38 - Jan 7 with 1021 views | ElderGrizzly |
This excellent thread just published on the "it's winter" or "no worse than flu" myth
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| UK excess deaths data for 2020 on 15:41 - Jan 7 with 1019 views | StokieBlue |
| UK excess deaths data for 2020 on 15:38 - Jan 7 by ElderGrizzly |
This excellent thread just published on the "it's winter" or "no worse than flu" myth
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That's good, a visualisation like that can probably get through to more people than just a table of numbers.
SB | |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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