| Fingers crossed for the Oxford vaccine rollout 16:34 - Jan 8 with 4136 views | StokieBlue |
Today was the worst day of the pandemic thus far, 1325 deaths and it's likely that the effects of household mixing over Christmas haven't fed through into the numbers yet. For context that is nearly 200 higher than any daily total in April.
It looks like the new variant is still mostly concentrated in the SE and London though which is some good news. Hopefully the lockdown will stop it taking hold as badly in other regions.
We really need the government to get this right. Good to see them calling on the manpower of the army to assist where needed.
SB |  | | |  |
| Fingers crossed for the Oxford vaccine rollout on 11:27 - Jan 9 with 1956 views | 26_Paz |
| Fingers crossed for the Oxford vaccine rollout on 11:25 - Jan 9 by ONENIL78 |
another 5days of figures like these(which will continue to rise at an alairming rate) and im sure we will be in total lockdown..The amount of people about,and cars on the road now,is 100% more than in last march/april |
What would you say a ‘total lockdown’ involves? We’re only allowed out now for work and exercise. Which of those two could feasibly be taken away? |  |
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| Fingers crossed for the Oxford vaccine rollout on 11:35 - Jan 9 with 1948 views | gordon |
| Fingers crossed for the Oxford vaccine rollout on 20:57 - Jan 8 by StokieBlue |
I know you've used the Zoe app as a reference before but I looked at one of the charts and the historical predicted cases per 100,000 from the app were about half the reality in December.
Don't suppose you have a comparison of implied vs actual data? I can look later, am being lazy as just cooked and want to go relax now.
SB |
I wouldn't be that convinced that a dip of reported symptoms on the Zoe app is strong enough evidence to talk about cases plateauing. Could just be related to less schoolchildren mixing while schools were closed over christmas, for example, a gain which will could be lost with schools re-opening. |  | | |
| Fingers crossed for the Oxford vaccine rollout on 11:37 - Jan 9 with 1945 views | StokieBlue |
| Fingers crossed for the Oxford vaccine rollout on 11:27 - Jan 9 by 26_Paz |
What would you say a ‘total lockdown’ involves? We’re only allowed out now for work and exercise. Which of those two could feasibly be taken away? |
The experts are clearly saying this lockdown isn't strict enough and nothing like as restrictive as the March lockdown.
The schools are still fairly busy, companies are saying people are key workers now when they weren't key workers in March. Household mixing is still higher (cleaners for instance) and nurseries are still open. Worship is still allowed. The shops which are considering themselves essential is far higher now than in March.
I'm March there were 500000 tube journeys a day at most, yesterday it was 1200000. In March only 17% of schools had >10% attendance, now it's 70%.
It's clearly very hard and complicated to address all these issues but virtually all the experts agree that something more needs to be done. The government needs to ensure that people and companies are supported financially so that companies go back to hope they were treating it in March.
SB | | | |
| Fingers crossed for the Oxford vaccine rollout on 11:38 - Jan 9 with 1944 views | WD19 |
| Fingers crossed for the Oxford vaccine rollout on 11:27 - Jan 9 by 26_Paz |
What would you say a ‘total lockdown’ involves? We’re only allowed out now for work and exercise. Which of those two could feasibly be taken away? |
Work and exercise
....even though working from home is technically possible, but it’s a bit boring.
....and collecting click and collect clothes shopping
......and to buy a coffee
.....and to have a good look around to see who else is out
.....and to visit Tesco for something to do because there is nothing on the telly.
STAY. AT. HOME. |  | | |
| Fingers crossed for the Oxford vaccine rollout on 11:42 - Jan 9 with 1937 views | DanTheMan |
| Fingers crossed for the Oxford vaccine rollout on 11:37 - Jan 9 by StokieBlue |
The experts are clearly saying this lockdown isn't strict enough and nothing like as restrictive as the March lockdown.
The schools are still fairly busy, companies are saying people are key workers now when they weren't key workers in March. Household mixing is still higher (cleaners for instance) and nurseries are still open. Worship is still allowed. The shops which are considering themselves essential is far higher now than in March.
I'm March there were 500000 tube journeys a day at most, yesterday it was 1200000. In March only 17% of schools had >10% attendance, now it's 70%.
It's clearly very hard and complicated to address all these issues but virtually all the experts agree that something more needs to be done. The government needs to ensure that people and companies are supported financially so that companies go back to hope they were treating it in March.
SB |
None of my friends who were furloughed or WFH in March are doing so now, along with other anecdotal evidence like the roads being obviously busier, it's fairly easy to assume companies are, as you say, not taking this seriously.
Government need to do something. I was relieved when we went into Lockdown but it seems to be very half arsed. |  |
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| Fingers crossed for the Oxford vaccine rollout on 11:46 - Jan 9 with 1926 views | StokieBlue |
| Fingers crossed for the Oxford vaccine rollout on 11:35 - Jan 9 by gordon |
I wouldn't be that convinced that a dip of reported symptoms on the Zoe app is strong enough evidence to talk about cases plateauing. Could just be related to less schoolchildren mixing while schools were closed over christmas, for example, a gain which will could be lost with schools re-opening. |
Indeed.
I wanted to check the Zoe predictions in December against the actual cases as one graph I saw based on Zoe data looked about half what the actual cases were from memory.
SB | | | |
| Fingers crossed for the Oxford vaccine rollout on 12:07 - Jan 9 with 1898 views | pointofblue |
| Fingers crossed for the Oxford vaccine rollout on 11:42 - Jan 9 by DanTheMan |
None of my friends who were furloughed or WFH in March are doing so now, along with other anecdotal evidence like the roads being obviously busier, it's fairly easy to assume companies are, as you say, not taking this seriously.
Government need to do something. I was relieved when we went into Lockdown but it seems to be very half arsed. |
I think the key issue is children can be sent to school if there’s one key worker in the household and that’s even if they’re working from home. From memory, March all responsible adults had to leave the house as key workers to be able to have children their in school.
Companies also need to act responsibly, considering what has been reported on here about non-vital companies electing to act like essential services, and places of worship need to be closed (I thought they had been?)
The strain is more virulent than March so the lockdown needs to be tighter too. |  |
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| Fingers crossed for the Oxford vaccine rollout on 12:51 - Jan 9 with 1871 views | Ace_High1 |
| Fingers crossed for the Oxford vaccine rollout on 11:37 - Jan 9 by StokieBlue |
The experts are clearly saying this lockdown isn't strict enough and nothing like as restrictive as the March lockdown.
The schools are still fairly busy, companies are saying people are key workers now when they weren't key workers in March. Household mixing is still higher (cleaners for instance) and nurseries are still open. Worship is still allowed. The shops which are considering themselves essential is far higher now than in March.
I'm March there were 500000 tube journeys a day at most, yesterday it was 1200000. In March only 17% of schools had >10% attendance, now it's 70%.
It's clearly very hard and complicated to address all these issues but virtually all the experts agree that something more needs to be done. The government needs to ensure that people and companies are supported financially so that companies go back to hope they were treating it in March.
SB |
The problem is SB is the rules with regards to work and industry are no different now to what they were in March.
The unique factor of March was this was all new to us and due to that and some lazy communication from the Government when lockdown 1 was announced some industries thought they had to close (see construction sites). This was then fought against over the following week when more then reopened. As it was new most people acted with an "abundance of caution" and closed/stopped work and scaled back out of fear/the unknown.
So unless the Government now specifically name industries that have to close it will not happen.
There is no way (not saying I agree) that Boris will come out and say Manufacturing, Construction or Engineering has to stop and therefore it is unreasonable to expect hundreds of employers off their own back to individually voluntarily close and risk their businesses.
I hate the use of the word lockdown as even what we had in March is not a true lockdown. A lockdown is what Melbourne did, or Italy/Spain first time around.
Outside of work people have got complacent and as I have been saying since last March we need enforcement. If people out socialising/meeting up got fined up to £10k over the course of a weekend it would stop immediately. We would just then have to put up with the "but my rights" brigade bleating on Facebook. [Post edited 9 Jan 2021 12:57]
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| Fingers crossed for the Oxford vaccine rollout on 13:46 - Jan 9 with 1856 views | StokieBlue |
| Fingers crossed for the Oxford vaccine rollout on 12:51 - Jan 9 by Ace_High1 |
The problem is SB is the rules with regards to work and industry are no different now to what they were in March.
The unique factor of March was this was all new to us and due to that and some lazy communication from the Government when lockdown 1 was announced some industries thought they had to close (see construction sites). This was then fought against over the following week when more then reopened. As it was new most people acted with an "abundance of caution" and closed/stopped work and scaled back out of fear/the unknown.
So unless the Government now specifically name industries that have to close it will not happen.
There is no way (not saying I agree) that Boris will come out and say Manufacturing, Construction or Engineering has to stop and therefore it is unreasonable to expect hundreds of employers off their own back to individually voluntarily close and risk their businesses.
I hate the use of the word lockdown as even what we had in March is not a true lockdown. A lockdown is what Melbourne did, or Italy/Spain first time around.
Outside of work people have got complacent and as I have been saying since last March we need enforcement. If people out socialising/meeting up got fined up to £10k over the course of a weekend it would stop immediately. We would just then have to put up with the "but my rights" brigade bleating on Facebook. [Post edited 9 Jan 2021 12:57]
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I do understand all those points but we had the record number of deaths yesterday, people need to understand this and act accordingly.
There seems to be very little doubt that businesses are identifying more workers as key when it's simply doesn't seem to be the case. Schools are closed but they are being used for childcare via the abuse of the key worker tag. I wouldn't be surprised if the school staff decided to stop working as the unions have mentioned - having 30% of the children in attendance isn't stopping the virus. They are having to do two jobs, schooling in class and home schooling.
"As it was new most people acted with an "abundance of caution" and closed/stopped work and scaled back out of fear/the unknown."
Why are people not acting with caution now when we have a much more infectious strain of the virus in circulation? Hospitalisations are far higher now than in March as are deaths - why aren't people taking this on board? I know there is some fatigue around everything and I understand that but when the science dictates something has changed then people should take that onboard.
It's all incredibly difficult, I understand that, but the general consensus of the experts is that things are nowhere near tight enough to stop the spread.
SB | | | |
| Fingers crossed for the Oxford vaccine rollout on 13:59 - Jan 9 with 1847 views | Ace_High1 |
| Fingers crossed for the Oxford vaccine rollout on 13:46 - Jan 9 by StokieBlue |
I do understand all those points but we had the record number of deaths yesterday, people need to understand this and act accordingly.
There seems to be very little doubt that businesses are identifying more workers as key when it's simply doesn't seem to be the case. Schools are closed but they are being used for childcare via the abuse of the key worker tag. I wouldn't be surprised if the school staff decided to stop working as the unions have mentioned - having 30% of the children in attendance isn't stopping the virus. They are having to do two jobs, schooling in class and home schooling.
"As it was new most people acted with an "abundance of caution" and closed/stopped work and scaled back out of fear/the unknown."
Why are people not acting with caution now when we have a much more infectious strain of the virus in circulation? Hospitalisations are far higher now than in March as are deaths - why aren't people taking this on board? I know there is some fatigue around everything and I understand that but when the science dictates something has changed then people should take that onboard.
It's all incredibly difficult, I understand that, but the general consensus of the experts is that things are nowhere near tight enough to stop the spread.
SB |
As I said in another thread, the key workers thing is getting mixed up with "my employer is open, I need to earn money, so I need to work, can you look after my child".
I understand the issue at schools, but as long as your industry/company is open, I am not aware of any company that is open, deciding which staff are working and which staff are not. If you can work from home you should, but there are millions of construction/engineers/site based staff in this country who need to work and therefore need the children either at school or in a childcare bubble.
Sadly a lot of employers will not furlough staff if they cannot get suitable childcare so people are forced to either take unpaid leave or work - that is the route of a lot of the problem.
You also get the opposite problem, some key workers are not willing to send the children into school, so then cannot work - how does an employer deal with that? Furlough yes, but that creates a dangerous precedent for other staff who have concerns about working. It really is a minefield.
The difference back then is we had no knowledge that it would go on this long. In March a lot of people thought this would all be over by summer 2020 so closing/scaling back for a month or two was seen as an acceptable course of action.
Now, and having gone through what we have, people/businesses are not going to do that unless formally instructed to.
If I decided to close my business and furlough everyone without a formal instruction from the Gov, how would I explain that to my customers and get contractual deadlines put on hold? They will just point to the instruction to keep construction open and suddenly I am in breach of every commitment I have made. It needs to come from up Boris - if he announces what should open/close then things may change but until then the issue is too complex for individuals to address on their own accord. | | | |
| Fingers crossed for the Oxford vaccine rollout on 14:13 - Jan 9 with 1836 views | StokieBlue |
| Fingers crossed for the Oxford vaccine rollout on 13:59 - Jan 9 by Ace_High1 |
As I said in another thread, the key workers thing is getting mixed up with "my employer is open, I need to earn money, so I need to work, can you look after my child".
I understand the issue at schools, but as long as your industry/company is open, I am not aware of any company that is open, deciding which staff are working and which staff are not. If you can work from home you should, but there are millions of construction/engineers/site based staff in this country who need to work and therefore need the children either at school or in a childcare bubble.
Sadly a lot of employers will not furlough staff if they cannot get suitable childcare so people are forced to either take unpaid leave or work - that is the route of a lot of the problem.
You also get the opposite problem, some key workers are not willing to send the children into school, so then cannot work - how does an employer deal with that? Furlough yes, but that creates a dangerous precedent for other staff who have concerns about working. It really is a minefield.
The difference back then is we had no knowledge that it would go on this long. In March a lot of people thought this would all be over by summer 2020 so closing/scaling back for a month or two was seen as an acceptable course of action.
Now, and having gone through what we have, people/businesses are not going to do that unless formally instructed to.
If I decided to close my business and furlough everyone without a formal instruction from the Gov, how would I explain that to my customers and get contractual deadlines put on hold? They will just point to the instruction to keep construction open and suddenly I am in breach of every commitment I have made. It needs to come from up Boris - if he announces what should open/close then things may change but until then the issue is too complex for individuals to address on their own accord. |
I do understand it's difficult for businesses and employees at the moment, I can WFH so perhaps my view is clouded but at the moment all I see is a pretty ineffectual lockdown.
"As I said in another thread, the key workers thing is getting mixed up with "my employer is open, I need to earn money, so I need to work, can you look after my child"".
This isn't how it works though. The employer has to issue a letter stating that the employee is a key worker. The employee cannot decide they are a key worker and send their kids to school because the business is open. Without a letter the school won't (or shouldn't) accept the child in school. Given this it is the employer deciding the workers are key because they need the income whilst the employees could get a lot of their income if they were furloughed which wouldn't help the business.
"Sadly a lot of employers will not furlough staff if they cannot get suitable childcare so people are forced to either take unpaid leave or work - that is the route of a lot of the problem."
Why wouldn't companies furlough their staff in this situation?
Totally agree that the specific rules need to come from the government, I've said that numerous times. Unfortunately our government are unlikely to do that so this lockdown will go on for ages, hard to see it stopping before April with the R>1 even at the moment.
As it stands things are a mess and still getting worse and the government responses are as shambolic as ever.
SB [Post edited 9 Jan 2021 14:14]
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| Fingers crossed for the Oxford vaccine rollout on 14:34 - Jan 9 with 1813 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
OK so all this talk of the new variant...why is it that the trajectory of growth seems to be steady since the start of the second wave, other than that brief dip which I think was when the tier system was first introduced? (using the graph regularly shown in the guardian look at the curve from September to near the end of November and extrapolate forwards and you still get to where we are now) |  |
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| Fingers crossed for the Oxford vaccine rollout on 14:40 - Jan 9 with 1807 views | StokieBlue |
| Fingers crossed for the Oxford vaccine rollout on 14:34 - Jan 9 by BanksterDebtSlave |
OK so all this talk of the new variant...why is it that the trajectory of growth seems to be steady since the start of the second wave, other than that brief dip which I think was when the tier system was first introduced? (using the graph regularly shown in the guardian look at the curve from September to near the end of November and extrapolate forwards and you still get to where we are now) |
Can you post the graph you are citing? Hard to offer possible explanations without seeing the source.
SB | | | |
| Fingers crossed for the Oxford vaccine rollout on 15:20 - Jan 9 with 1763 views | Ace_High1 |
| Fingers crossed for the Oxford vaccine rollout on 14:13 - Jan 9 by StokieBlue |
I do understand it's difficult for businesses and employees at the moment, I can WFH so perhaps my view is clouded but at the moment all I see is a pretty ineffectual lockdown.
"As I said in another thread, the key workers thing is getting mixed up with "my employer is open, I need to earn money, so I need to work, can you look after my child"".
This isn't how it works though. The employer has to issue a letter stating that the employee is a key worker. The employee cannot decide they are a key worker and send their kids to school because the business is open. Without a letter the school won't (or shouldn't) accept the child in school. Given this it is the employer deciding the workers are key because they need the income whilst the employees could get a lot of their income if they were furloughed which wouldn't help the business.
"Sadly a lot of employers will not furlough staff if they cannot get suitable childcare so people are forced to either take unpaid leave or work - that is the route of a lot of the problem."
Why wouldn't companies furlough their staff in this situation?
Totally agree that the specific rules need to come from the government, I've said that numerous times. Unfortunately our government are unlikely to do that so this lockdown will go on for ages, hard to see it stopping before April with the R>1 even at the moment.
As it stands things are a mess and still getting worse and the government responses are as shambolic as ever.
SB [Post edited 9 Jan 2021 14:14]
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There are grey areas you are not fully appreciating though.
Because Boris will not say so, industry A is open.
Company therefore in industry A has customers work to deliver.
Company needs staff to undertake work.
Employees either need childcare/school or to be furloughed.
If they are furloughed, yes some of the staff costs are covered but the company has to then cancel work or default on contracts and has unhappy customers. Rishi has not created any support schemes to make up for future lost customers or paying LD's!
So company issues key worker letters which still is very open - take a Finance Manager at one of the UK's electricity network operators - so the company is open as it is utilities (key industry) but the finance manager is not frontline, BUT they undertake certain tasks (lets say here they pay the supplier bills on a weekly basis) which are vital if the company is to operate as normal and suddenly they are now a key worker. So is the finance managers assistant as they prep the supplier invoices on the system and then the office admin who raises the supplier invoices on the job and so on and so on.
The key part is said company is open, then ultimately ALL staff are key, if they were not, why are they employed? They all fulfill a role in helping the company operate so are needed.
That is basically where we are in England.
Only solution is for sectors of industry to be told by Boris to close - nothing else works. [Post edited 9 Jan 2021 15:23]
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| Fingers crossed for the Oxford vaccine rollout on 22:22 - Jan 9 with 1722 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| Fingers crossed for the Oxford vaccine rollout on 14:45 - Jan 9 by DanTheMan |
I mean it's nearly vertical if I'm looking at the same graph you are.
 [Post edited 9 Jan 2021 14:45]
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That's the one...without that dip in the middle you could project forward the September to November rate and arrive at the same point now.
Edit....isn't near vertical what happens with exponential growth? Could it just be that our measures are ineffective? [Post edited 9 Jan 2021 22:34]
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