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Raab - we may not be able to guarantee a 2nd dose in 12 weeks 14:26 - Jan 17 with 4454 viewsElderGrizzly

So after changing (without evidence) the Pfizer dosing schedule from 3 weeks to 3 months, Raab just dropped into conversation this morning that even that could no longer be guaranteed.



As a reminder, one dose gets you to 52%.

https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4826
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Raab - we may not be able to guarantee a 2nd dose in 12 weeks on 14:32 - Jan 17 with 2103 viewsBlueBadger

I wonder what could have happened on January 1 to disrupt the supply chain of 70-odd% of the medications we use in this country?

I'm one of the people who was blamed for getting Paul Cook sacked. PM for the full post.
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Raab - we may not be able to guarantee a 2nd dose in 12 weeks on 14:43 - Jan 17 with 2068 viewsTrequartista

I don't think Dominic Raab or the government made the decision to delay the second dose, i think it was the scientific advisors. Also Pfizer have announced delays to all European countries that upgrading their plant is going to affect delivery numbers in the short term.

You have to consider we are in an emergency situation with a lot of people dying - 52% efficacy means that there is a higher risk someone will catch covid and potentially pass it on, but the chances of someone not becoming hospitalised after 1 dose is 99-100%.
[Post edited 17 Jan 2021 14:45]

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Raab - we may not be able to guarantee a 2nd dose in 12 weeks on 14:53 - Jan 17 with 2006 viewsTrequartista

Raab - we may not be able to guarantee a 2nd dose in 12 weeks on 14:32 - Jan 17 by BlueBadger

I wonder what could have happened on January 1 to disrupt the supply chain of 70-odd% of the medications we use in this country?


I bow to your superior knowledge on medications in general, but as far as vaccination programs are concerned, EU countries have made a pitiful start compared to the UK.

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Raab - we may not be able to guarantee a 2nd dose in 12 weeks on 14:54 - Jan 17 with 1991 viewsmikeybloo88

Raab - we may not be able to guarantee a 2nd dose in 12 weeks on 14:43 - Jan 17 by Trequartista

I don't think Dominic Raab or the government made the decision to delay the second dose, i think it was the scientific advisors. Also Pfizer have announced delays to all European countries that upgrading their plant is going to affect delivery numbers in the short term.

You have to consider we are in an emergency situation with a lot of people dying - 52% efficacy means that there is a higher risk someone will catch covid and potentially pass it on, but the chances of someone not becoming hospitalised after 1 dose is 99-100%.
[Post edited 17 Jan 2021 14:45]


It's probably a good thing if many people ultimately do catch covid and don't need hospitalisation, as long as the symptoms are relatively mild and not long lasting.
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Raab - we may not be able to guarantee a 2nd dose in 12 weeks on 15:00 - Jan 17 with 1971 viewsm14_blue

Raab - we may not be able to guarantee a 2nd dose in 12 weeks on 14:43 - Jan 17 by Trequartista

I don't think Dominic Raab or the government made the decision to delay the second dose, i think it was the scientific advisors. Also Pfizer have announced delays to all European countries that upgrading their plant is going to affect delivery numbers in the short term.

You have to consider we are in an emergency situation with a lot of people dying - 52% efficacy means that there is a higher risk someone will catch covid and potentially pass it on, but the chances of someone not becoming hospitalised after 1 dose is 99-100%.
[Post edited 17 Jan 2021 14:45]


Is that last bit right? That’s massively significant if so, and needs to be more widely circulated. I’m sure it would be of huge comfort to all those panicking about not getting their second dose.

Are there questions over how long the immunity lasts with only one dose?

If not, seems like absolutely the right decision to give as many people as possible the first dose given the current situation.
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Raab - we may not be able to guarantee a 2nd dose in 12 weeks on 15:08 - Jan 17 with 1938 viewsTrequartista

Raab - we may not be able to guarantee a 2nd dose in 12 weeks on 15:00 - Jan 17 by m14_blue

Is that last bit right? That’s massively significant if so, and needs to be more widely circulated. I’m sure it would be of huge comfort to all those panicking about not getting their second dose.

Are there questions over how long the immunity lasts with only one dose?

If not, seems like absolutely the right decision to give as many people as possible the first dose given the current situation.


It's in the op link - 1 case of severe covid of those taking the vaccine in the entire trial. I believe it was zero in the Oxford trials.

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Raab - we may not be able to guarantee a 2nd dose in 12 weeks on 15:10 - Jan 17 with 1931 viewsnodge_blue

It was reported in the Times today though that Israel have found that one dose is making a big difference in hospitalisations.

600,000 people in the study were immunised. Of those this then happened after some got covid

Week 1 244 went to hospital
Week 2 124 went to hospital
Week 3 7 went to hospital

And also Professor Chris Whitty was promoting this idea of one dose to protect as many people ASAP and prevent bigger number of total deaths. So its not like the medical profession haven't endorsed it.
[Post edited 17 Jan 2021 15:12]

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Raab - we may not be able to guarantee a 2nd dose in 12 weeks on 15:11 - Jan 17 with 1929 viewsBlueBadger

Raab - we may not be able to guarantee a 2nd dose in 12 weeks on 14:53 - Jan 17 by Trequartista

I bow to your superior knowledge on medications in general, but as far as vaccination programs are concerned, EU countries have made a pitiful start compared to the UK.


In all fairness though, they've been generally doing their infection control better and so have less urgency and won't have ongoing issues with supply chains when they do get fully going.
[Post edited 17 Jan 2021 15:12]

I'm one of the people who was blamed for getting Paul Cook sacked. PM for the full post.
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Raab - we may not be able to guarantee a 2nd dose in 12 weeks on 15:15 - Jan 17 with 1896 viewsTrequartista

Raab - we may not be able to guarantee a 2nd dose in 12 weeks on 15:10 - Jan 17 by nodge_blue

It was reported in the Times today though that Israel have found that one dose is making a big difference in hospitalisations.

600,000 people in the study were immunised. Of those this then happened after some got covid

Week 1 244 went to hospital
Week 2 124 went to hospital
Week 3 7 went to hospital

And also Professor Chris Whitty was promoting this idea of one dose to protect as many people ASAP and prevent bigger number of total deaths. So its not like the medical profession haven't endorsed it.
[Post edited 17 Jan 2021 15:12]


Israel is the only country to have vaccinated >25% of their entire population so far, so looking to see what is happening there will be crucial.

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Raab - we may not be able to guarantee a 2nd dose in 12 weeks on 15:16 - Jan 17 with 1880 viewsStokieBlue

Raab - we may not be able to guarantee a 2nd dose in 12 weeks on 14:32 - Jan 17 by BlueBadger

I wonder what could have happened on January 1 to disrupt the supply chain of 70-odd% of the medications we use in this country?


This isn't actually Brexit related for a change.

Pfizer are upgrading their European factories to make more dosages and thus they have reduced the amount all countries are getting by the same percentage I believe.

"Although this will temporarily impact shipments in late January to early February, it will provide a significant increase in doses available for patients in late February and March," Pfizer said.

So it's a sensible move by Pfizer but unfortunately could mean that many in the UK don't get the second dose. I know people will say 52% is still good but these are the most vulnerable people getting Pfizer so there could still be hospitalisations and deaths.

SB
[Post edited 17 Jan 2021 15:20]

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Raab - we may not be able to guarantee a 2nd dose in 12 weeks on 15:20 - Jan 17 with 1837 viewsm14_blue

Raab - we may not be able to guarantee a 2nd dose in 12 weeks on 15:08 - Jan 17 by Trequartista

It's in the op link - 1 case of severe covid of those taking the vaccine in the entire trial. I believe it was zero in the Oxford trials.


Really good news.
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Raab - we may not be able to guarantee a 2nd dose in 12 weeks on 15:21 - Jan 17 with 1840 viewsTrequartista

Raab - we may not be able to guarantee a 2nd dose in 12 weeks on 15:11 - Jan 17 by BlueBadger

In all fairness though, they've been generally doing their infection control better and so have less urgency and won't have ongoing issues with supply chains when they do get fully going.
[Post edited 17 Jan 2021 15:12]


I would agree the UK compares badly on controlling the infection, but in my view there is no such thing as "less urgency" as far as a vaccine is concerned. Every country should be at absolute full speed. The more infectious variants are yet to take hold there and cases are rapidly rising.

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Raab - we may not be able to guarantee a 2nd dose in 12 weeks on 15:39 - Jan 17 with 1773 viewsDebsyAngel

More worry for me - it's getting to the point that I no longer feel I can live my life without panic or fear. I worry about my parents too not being protected. I doubt this hell will ever be over. Even going out to town once a week to stop me becoming agoraphobic is getting harder when you read that people have been questioned for sitting on a bench for a breather.
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Raab - we may not be able to guarantee a 2nd dose in 12 weeks on 15:53 - Jan 17 with 1738 viewsElderGrizzly

Raab - we may not be able to guarantee a 2nd dose in 12 weeks on 15:10 - Jan 17 by nodge_blue

It was reported in the Times today though that Israel have found that one dose is making a big difference in hospitalisations.

600,000 people in the study were immunised. Of those this then happened after some got covid

Week 1 244 went to hospital
Week 2 124 went to hospital
Week 3 7 went to hospital

And also Professor Chris Whitty was promoting this idea of one dose to protect as many people ASAP and prevent bigger number of total deaths. So its not like the medical profession haven't endorsed it.
[Post edited 17 Jan 2021 15:12]


Which is good, as they have seen their infection rate soar from 400 to 800 per million since the vaccinations started
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Raab - we may not be able to guarantee a 2nd dose in 12 weeks on 16:13 - Jan 17 with 1671 viewsElderGrizzly

Raab - we may not be able to guarantee a 2nd dose in 12 weeks on 15:10 - Jan 17 by nodge_blue

It was reported in the Times today though that Israel have found that one dose is making a big difference in hospitalisations.

600,000 people in the study were immunised. Of those this then happened after some got covid

Week 1 244 went to hospital
Week 2 124 went to hospital
Week 3 7 went to hospital

And also Professor Chris Whitty was promoting this idea of one dose to protect as many people ASAP and prevent bigger number of total deaths. So its not like the medical profession haven't endorsed it.
[Post edited 17 Jan 2021 15:12]


I agree, 1 dose will make a big difference.

It is the underhand nature of changing the goalposts against the advice of the manufacturers which worries those in the profession I have talked to. There was simply no evidence to move Pfizer from 21 days to 3 months.

And now saying the 3 months might become longer isn’t great.
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Raab - we may not be able to guarantee a 2nd dose in 12 weeks on 16:22 - Jan 17 with 1638 viewstiptreeblue

Raab - we may not be able to guarantee a 2nd dose in 12 weeks on 14:53 - Jan 17 by Trequartista

I bow to your superior knowledge on medications in general, but as far as vaccination programs are concerned, EU countries have made a pitiful start compared to the UK.


It`s just another chance to bring up Brexit again. These people just can`t move on.
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Raab - we may not be able to guarantee a 2nd dose in 12 weeks on 16:23 - Jan 17 with 1633 viewsTimefliesbyintheblue

Raab - we may not be able to guarantee a 2nd dose in 12 weeks on 14:32 - Jan 17 by BlueBadger

I wonder what could have happened on January 1 to disrupt the supply chain of 70-odd% of the medications we use in this country?


Are you saying that 70% of medications used in this country have been delayed or disrupted because of Brexit since January 1st. I guess you are not.
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Raab - we may not be able to guarantee a 2nd dose in 12 weeks on 16:24 - Jan 17 with 1622 views26_Paz

Raab - we may not be able to guarantee a 2nd dose in 12 weeks on 15:53 - Jan 17 by ElderGrizzly

Which is good, as they have seen their infection rate soar from 400 to 800 per million since the vaccinations started


Once the vulnerable are vaccinate infection rates become less important, surely? Focus will shift to numbers in hospital. As long as those vulnerable to the worst effects of the virus are protected and aren’t being hospitalised, that’s the goal of all this, right?

The Paz Man

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Raab - we may not be able to guarantee a 2nd dose in 12 weeks on 16:26 - Jan 17 with 1621 viewsElephantintheRoom

Raab - we may not be able to guarantee a 2nd dose in 12 weeks on 15:21 - Jan 17 by Trequartista

I would agree the UK compares badly on controlling the infection, but in my view there is no such thing as "less urgency" as far as a vaccine is concerned. Every country should be at absolute full speed. The more infectious variants are yet to take hold there and cases are rapidly rising.


The UK are pressing ahead with mass vaccinations as a last chance saloon to save the government. It has got nothing to do with 'beating Covid'.

The thing is nobody knows if the vaccine will be safe in mass vaccination - nor do they know how long immunity lasts, nor whther it is going to be effective against new variants, nor do they know if recipient can pass on the virus. The one thing they do know is that the vaccine is at best 90% effective - and quite probably a lot less in certain high risk groups.. IF everyone is vaccinated - even with two doses, that salient fact means around 6 million vaccinated people will be swanning around thinking they are protected when they are not....which could and probaably will create a third wave bigger than anything seen so far.... and that's not counting the millions who wont get vaccinated out of choice.

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Raab - we may not be able to guarantee a 2nd dose in 12 weeks on 16:39 - Jan 17 with 1586 viewsnodge_blue

Raab - we may not be able to guarantee a 2nd dose in 12 weeks on 16:13 - Jan 17 by ElderGrizzly

I agree, 1 dose will make a big difference.

It is the underhand nature of changing the goalposts against the advice of the manufacturers which worries those in the profession I have talked to. There was simply no evidence to move Pfizer from 21 days to 3 months.

And now saying the 3 months might become longer isn’t great.


But I think this was a medical led recommendation based on probability rather than certainty.

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Raab - we may not be able to guarantee a 2nd dose in 12 weeks on 16:45 - Jan 17 with 1570 viewsnodge_blue

Raab - we may not be able to guarantee a 2nd dose in 12 weeks on 16:26 - Jan 17 by ElephantintheRoom

The UK are pressing ahead with mass vaccinations as a last chance saloon to save the government. It has got nothing to do with 'beating Covid'.

The thing is nobody knows if the vaccine will be safe in mass vaccination - nor do they know how long immunity lasts, nor whther it is going to be effective against new variants, nor do they know if recipient can pass on the virus. The one thing they do know is that the vaccine is at best 90% effective - and quite probably a lot less in certain high risk groups.. IF everyone is vaccinated - even with two doses, that salient fact means around 6 million vaccinated people will be swanning around thinking they are protected when they are not....which could and probaably will create a third wave bigger than anything seen so far.... and that's not counting the millions who wont get vaccinated out of choice.


Yes they do know the vaccination will be safe. The medical body has studied the data and approved it for safety.

Whilst there may be some issues with people that have allergic reactions, which they are hopefully already aware of, the benefits of stopping thousands of deaths a day are clear.

There has already been research that shows protection against the UK and South African variants is still given.

The virus will remain in circulation, but if it becomes a virus that doesn't cause significant hospitalisations or deaths then its a no brainer.

All this information has been made public.

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Raab - we may not be able to guarantee a 2nd dose in 12 weeks on 16:48 - Jan 17 with 1558 viewsJ2BLUE

You're reading too much into this. Things happen and nothing is guaranteed. That's all he meant.

As much as I don't like the Tories they are managing the vaccine rollout fairly well and I wish we'd give them a break rather than over-analysing every little thing.

There's plenty of legit stuff we can be criticising them for without becoming this desperate.

Truly impaired.
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Raab - we may not be able to guarantee a 2nd dose in 12 weeks on 16:49 - Jan 17 with 1551 viewsJ2BLUE

Raab - we may not be able to guarantee a 2nd dose in 12 weeks on 15:00 - Jan 17 by m14_blue

Is that last bit right? That’s massively significant if so, and needs to be more widely circulated. I’m sure it would be of huge comfort to all those panicking about not getting their second dose.

Are there questions over how long the immunity lasts with only one dose?

If not, seems like absolutely the right decision to give as many people as possible the first dose given the current situation.


Yep that is one of the massive benefits of the vaccine which EG does know but for some reason continues to focus on the efficacy figure.

Truly impaired.
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Raab - we may not be able to guarantee a 2nd dose in 12 weeks on 16:50 - Jan 17 with 1546 viewsm14_blue

Raab - we may not be able to guarantee a 2nd dose in 12 weeks on 16:24 - Jan 17 by 26_Paz

Once the vulnerable are vaccinate infection rates become less important, surely? Focus will shift to numbers in hospital. As long as those vulnerable to the worst effects of the virus are protected and aren’t being hospitalised, that’s the goal of all this, right?


That’s my thinking too.

Obviously lots of cases is still a concern but far, far less of one if fewer people are getting seriously ill.
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Raab - we may not be able to guarantee a 2nd dose in 12 weeks on 16:56 - Jan 17 with 1526 viewsElderGrizzly

Raab - we may not be able to guarantee a 2nd dose in 12 weeks on 16:49 - Jan 17 by J2BLUE

Yep that is one of the massive benefits of the vaccine which EG does know but for some reason continues to focus on the efficacy figure.


I’m not focussing on it. I’m simply relaying the worries of those I speak to and read up on who are Doctors.

The vaccine roll-out is going well, but there are enough concerned voices being raised to question if all is as it seems.

I want it to succeed, i’m just questioning the Government’s ever changing narrative.
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