| Joe Public & Covid Compliance on 16:02 - Jan 17 with 1207 views | StokieBlue |
Individual rule-breaking isn't the issue at the moment, it's the very loose definitions that the government have put in place for who is a key worker and thus who is allowed to go to work and who is sent to school. The failure of the government to provide reasonable financial protection to individuals and companies has meant that the rules are being interpreted as liberally as possible.
Another Guardian article on it here:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jan/16/bosses-accused-putting-workers-
Our primary isn't taking anymore children, they have said there is a waiting list for any further kids being sent in and have sent out a letter appealing that children don't attend if parents are WFH.
Cases are falling in general though so perhaps even a diminished rather than totally closed schooling system does make a significant difference to the numbers.
SB |  |
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| Joe Public & Covid Compliance on 16:15 - Jan 17 with 1166 views | ElephantintheRoom |
That is because it isn't a lockdown and can be interpreted in so many ways.
No point in isolating at home - then going to a covid filled supermarket and exercising wherever you feel like - as our beloved prime minister and health minister did at the weekend.
And if you have children - or have a proper job that involves going to work - then no chance....
And now the country has one of the highest infection rates in the world - as far as can be ascertained with no effective test and trace - they close the borders - 10 months too late.
In France, even in areas like mine where there is no covid there is a 6pm curfew. When there was a lockdown, any exercise was within 1km of home. Simple things like this make a huge difference in a disease which is transmitted by social contact and so many dont know they've got it. |  |
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| Joe Public & Covid Compliance on 16:22 - Jan 17 with 1130 views | bluelagos |
Sticking to the belief there is widespread non compliance, I think many people see / hear things and get it into their minds that these breaches are way more widespread than they really are.
So an personal example - took me about 2 years in Lagos to fathom out what was going on with respect to armed robberies but I think the issues are the same. You heard stories all the time, every time you met up with expats about a robbery here or there. Or someone getting Malaria. But I never knew anyone who was actually robbed. These stories were always second hand.
What was going on was the same stories were being repeated, again and again and it all sounded way worse that it really was. The fear was real but way out of all proportion to the risks.
So I can tell you stories of being arm robbed (as I was once), seeing a machete gang (as happened to me once) being hospitalised with Malaria (as happened to me 3 times) being chased by armed robbers (once) being bombed (Lagos arms depot). Sounds terrible. Awful things that were literally life threatening.
Until you work out I was there for 8 years. That meant less than one nasty / scary incident a year. One. And Malaria is only life threatening if you don't get treated. Armed robbers very rarely kill you - they rob you. And the chances of a bomb landing on your head - yeah that was a bummer but unlikely to happen twice.
My point being, that people get themselves overly worried about the risks of events all the time. In reality seeing people outside chatting is not good, but is it actually likely to cause a spread of a disease? It is if they are hugging / kissing - but that's not what we are seeing is it.
And last word from me - to repeat - whenever I see 2 women chatting who are clearly catching up I just recognise that a year ago, that catch up would have been inside a cafe or one of their houses - far riskier than them having a chat during a walk. |  |
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| Joe Public & Covid Compliance on 16:47 - Jan 17 with 1092 views | Harry_Palmer |
| Joe Public & Covid Compliance on 16:22 - Jan 17 by bluelagos |
Sticking to the belief there is widespread non compliance, I think many people see / hear things and get it into their minds that these breaches are way more widespread than they really are.
So an personal example - took me about 2 years in Lagos to fathom out what was going on with respect to armed robberies but I think the issues are the same. You heard stories all the time, every time you met up with expats about a robbery here or there. Or someone getting Malaria. But I never knew anyone who was actually robbed. These stories were always second hand.
What was going on was the same stories were being repeated, again and again and it all sounded way worse that it really was. The fear was real but way out of all proportion to the risks.
So I can tell you stories of being arm robbed (as I was once), seeing a machete gang (as happened to me once) being hospitalised with Malaria (as happened to me 3 times) being chased by armed robbers (once) being bombed (Lagos arms depot). Sounds terrible. Awful things that were literally life threatening.
Until you work out I was there for 8 years. That meant less than one nasty / scary incident a year. One. And Malaria is only life threatening if you don't get treated. Armed robbers very rarely kill you - they rob you. And the chances of a bomb landing on your head - yeah that was a bummer but unlikely to happen twice.
My point being, that people get themselves overly worried about the risks of events all the time. In reality seeing people outside chatting is not good, but is it actually likely to cause a spread of a disease? It is if they are hugging / kissing - but that's not what we are seeing is it.
And last word from me - to repeat - whenever I see 2 women chatting who are clearly catching up I just recognise that a year ago, that catch up would have been inside a cafe or one of their houses - far riskier than them having a chat during a walk. |
Good post Lagos and I agree that on the whole the compliance to the rules and restrictions in the UK has been pretty good. Unfortunately rags like the Mail and the Sun do love a 'covidiot' story ( every day ) and I think this alters peoples perceptions significantly.
The mail today have a piece about Hancock being in the park with his son playing Rugby and go out of their way to mention several times that he was 'not wearing a mask', why even bring this up when there is clearly not current mandate to wear a face covering when outside exercising.?
They are also running continual stories about people in supermarkets not wearing masks but in my own personal experience the compliance with this is very high. I can't remember seeing anybody without a mask on in a supermarket during the Autumn / Winter.
Blimey you have certainly had your share of scary incidences in Lagos though, I'm not sure i'd fancy a once a year ratio of armed robberies and Malaria! |  | | |
| Joe Public & Covid Compliance on 16:57 - Jan 17 with 1064 views | Funge |
| Joe Public & Covid Compliance on 16:02 - Jan 17 by StokieBlue |
Individual rule-breaking isn't the issue at the moment, it's the very loose definitions that the government have put in place for who is a key worker and thus who is allowed to go to work and who is sent to school. The failure of the government to provide reasonable financial protection to individuals and companies has meant that the rules are being interpreted as liberally as possible.
Another Guardian article on it here:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jan/16/bosses-accused-putting-workers-
Our primary isn't taking anymore children, they have said there is a waiting list for any further kids being sent in and have sent out a letter appealing that children don't attend if parents are WFH.
Cases are falling in general though so perhaps even a diminished rather than totally closed schooling system does make a significant difference to the numbers.
SB |
All fair points - it all leads back to the government with this (which we all already knew)...
As an aside, it is very welcome, and also wholly unsurprising, to see that the vaccine distribution appears to be the one thing that this government seems to have implemented correctly - not least because the Army have been enlisted to assist, as opposed to the various members of Michael Gove's Zumba group...
As you state, case numbers appear to be falling; when taken in tandem with the impressive vaccine uptake, I grow confident that better times are getting ever closer. |  | | |
| Joe Public & Covid Compliance on 17:00 - Jan 17 with 1048 views | bluelagos |
| Joe Public & Covid Compliance on 16:47 - Jan 17 by Harry_Palmer |
Good post Lagos and I agree that on the whole the compliance to the rules and restrictions in the UK has been pretty good. Unfortunately rags like the Mail and the Sun do love a 'covidiot' story ( every day ) and I think this alters peoples perceptions significantly.
The mail today have a piece about Hancock being in the park with his son playing Rugby and go out of their way to mention several times that he was 'not wearing a mask', why even bring this up when there is clearly not current mandate to wear a face covering when outside exercising.?
They are also running continual stories about people in supermarkets not wearing masks but in my own personal experience the compliance with this is very high. I can't remember seeing anybody without a mask on in a supermarket during the Autumn / Winter.
Blimey you have certainly had your share of scary incidences in Lagos though, I'm not sure i'd fancy a once a year ratio of armed robberies and Malaria! |
Cheers. Yep, the press and of course social media play a role. As does the relentless public messaging - "Go outside and you are killing people" which people take literally. | |
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| Joe Public & Covid Compliance on 17:12 - Jan 17 with 1011 views | bluelagos |
| Joe Public & Covid Compliance on 16:02 - Jan 17 by StokieBlue |
Individual rule-breaking isn't the issue at the moment, it's the very loose definitions that the government have put in place for who is a key worker and thus who is allowed to go to work and who is sent to school. The failure of the government to provide reasonable financial protection to individuals and companies has meant that the rules are being interpreted as liberally as possible.
Another Guardian article on it here:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jan/16/bosses-accused-putting-workers-
Our primary isn't taking anymore children, they have said there is a waiting list for any further kids being sent in and have sent out a letter appealing that children don't attend if parents are WFH.
Cases are falling in general though so perhaps even a diminished rather than totally closed schooling system does make a significant difference to the numbers.
SB |
Meant to ask you earlier.
Cases are falling - that is clear from many sources, not everywhere but most of the country. Yet we are being told as recently as 3 days ago that "R" is above 1 still. Any thoughts? | |
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| Joe Public & Covid Compliance on 17:12 - Jan 17 with 1008 views | Churchman |
| Joe Public & Covid Compliance on 16:47 - Jan 17 by Harry_Palmer |
Good post Lagos and I agree that on the whole the compliance to the rules and restrictions in the UK has been pretty good. Unfortunately rags like the Mail and the Sun do love a 'covidiot' story ( every day ) and I think this alters peoples perceptions significantly.
The mail today have a piece about Hancock being in the park with his son playing Rugby and go out of their way to mention several times that he was 'not wearing a mask', why even bring this up when there is clearly not current mandate to wear a face covering when outside exercising.?
They are also running continual stories about people in supermarkets not wearing masks but in my own personal experience the compliance with this is very high. I can't remember seeing anybody without a mask on in a supermarket during the Autumn / Winter.
Blimey you have certainly had your share of scary incidences in Lagos though, I'm not sure i'd fancy a once a year ratio of armed robberies and Malaria! |
I was interested in the pictures of the ‘covididiots in the Mail or one of the other rags yesterday. It followed on from Hancock and his son in the park. The stance was ‘jam packed park’ etc but if you looked closely, the pics were taken at a very low angle to make people look like they were close - when they weren’t at all. Exercise is good for health and well-being. Everyone knows that. But selling cat litter wrapper and politics is clearly more important to scum journalists.
Most people are being sensible because they don't want it or to pass it on. Compliance isn’t too bad on the whole in my view. Some are idiot denyers, others brain dead, some ‘pushing’ the rules because they can. These idiots forget people spread this, not governments so it’s up to them to take responsibility. It’s not difficult. The real rules of distance and hygiene aren’t rocket science.
Schools and work or more difficult. Denying that schools are agents in spreading the virus is mad. Of course they do even if it doesn’t affect children too badly. If you are working for a company that says you have to go in to work, what can you do? Not everyone financially can just walk away. Much more work needs to go into these areas in my view. |  | | |
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| Joe Public & Covid Compliance on 17:24 - Jan 17 with 967 views | Harry_Palmer |
| Joe Public & Covid Compliance on 17:12 - Jan 17 by Churchman |
I was interested in the pictures of the ‘covididiots in the Mail or one of the other rags yesterday. It followed on from Hancock and his son in the park. The stance was ‘jam packed park’ etc but if you looked closely, the pics were taken at a very low angle to make people look like they were close - when they weren’t at all. Exercise is good for health and well-being. Everyone knows that. But selling cat litter wrapper and politics is clearly more important to scum journalists.
Most people are being sensible because they don't want it or to pass it on. Compliance isn’t too bad on the whole in my view. Some are idiot denyers, others brain dead, some ‘pushing’ the rules because they can. These idiots forget people spread this, not governments so it’s up to them to take responsibility. It’s not difficult. The real rules of distance and hygiene aren’t rocket science.
Schools and work or more difficult. Denying that schools are agents in spreading the virus is mad. Of course they do even if it doesn’t affect children too badly. If you are working for a company that says you have to go in to work, what can you do? Not everyone financially can just walk away. Much more work needs to go into these areas in my view. |
Yes they do love a bit of camera manipulation just to try and make it look as bad as possible, see also the pictures of people on beach over the Summer.
I think there is always more that could be done but it appears that cases are heading in the right direction so the restrictions do seem to be having some impact. | | | |
| Joe Public & Covid Compliance on 17:38 - Jan 17 with 938 views | giant_stow |
In my mind the single most dangerous thing most people will be doing now is going to a supermarket. If a third of people have it in London at the mo, then a large out of town style supermarket must have 100s of covid positive people in it at busy times (shudder).
Going to the park and letting nippers play with their mates feels pretty tame by comparison, even its probably against the rules. |  |
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| Joe Public & Covid Compliance on 17:40 - Jan 17 with 927 views | bluelagos |
| Joe Public & Covid Compliance on 17:38 - Jan 17 by giant_stow |
In my mind the single most dangerous thing most people will be doing now is going to a supermarket. If a third of people have it in London at the mo, then a large out of town style supermarket must have 100s of covid positive people in it at busy times (shudder).
Going to the park and letting nippers play with their mates feels pretty tame by comparison, even its probably against the rules. |
A third of people? The highest rates (in East London) were 1 in 16.
The third is that a third of people with CV are without symptoms. | |
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| Joe Public & Covid Compliance on 17:57 - Jan 17 with 883 views | giant_stow |
| Joe Public & Covid Compliance on 17:40 - Jan 17 by bluelagos |
A third of people? The highest rates (in East London) were 1 in 16.
The third is that a third of people with CV are without symptoms. |
Yeah a third, according to a study rather than official numbers, admitdly! I did a thread link to the study last week - I'll find now and add it in an edit.
1 in 5 has had covid according to a new study by giant_stow 10 Jan 2021 20:29And lar more in parts of London.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2021/jan/10/one-in-five-have-had-coronavirus-in-england-new-modelling-says
Any thoughts on the methodology? If this is true, according to herd immunity, shouldn't infections start to turn down soonish (given they're still so high per day) regardless of lockdown and vaccines?
Actuaaly, I've realised my boob now! This study was the total of everyone who's had it rather than who has it now. Oops. I'm going to go away and think about what I've done.
Edit 3 (!) i think the point still holds though, despite my numbers being bollox. [Post edited 17 Jan 2021 18:01]
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| Joe Public & Covid Compliance on 18:13 - Jan 17 with 837 views | bluelagos |
| Joe Public & Covid Compliance on 17:57 - Jan 17 by giant_stow |
Yeah a third, according to a study rather than official numbers, admitdly! I did a thread link to the study last week - I'll find now and add it in an edit.
1 in 5 has had covid according to a new study by giant_stow 10 Jan 2021 20:29And lar more in parts of London.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2021/jan/10/one-in-five-have-had-coronavirus-in-england-new-modelling-says
Any thoughts on the methodology? If this is true, according to herd immunity, shouldn't infections start to turn down soonish (given they're still so high per day) regardless of lockdown and vaccines?
Actuaaly, I've realised my boob now! This study was the total of everyone who's had it rather than who has it now. Oops. I'm going to go away and think about what I've done.
Edit 3 (!) i think the point still holds though, despite my numbers being bollox. [Post edited 17 Jan 2021 18:01]
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But the numbers matter! A lot :-) | |
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| Joe Public & Covid Compliance on 12:12 - Jan 19 with 535 views | StokieBlue |
| Joe Public & Covid Compliance on 17:12 - Jan 17 by bluelagos |
Meant to ask you earlier.
Cases are falling - that is clear from many sources, not everywhere but most of the country. Yet we are being told as recently as 3 days ago that "R" is above 1 still. Any thoughts? |
Sorry for the tardy reply.
I'm not specifically sure why the R is cited above 1 in this case, I suspect it's a simple average and that the populated areas of the North and Midlands are above 1 (around 1.2 probably) and London and the SE are around 0.9 and thus nationally it averages around 1. I expect this could easily change to R<1 within a week though if the trends continue. I'd need to find some time to look at the actual data to give a better answer than that I am afraid.
As an aside it's important to clarify that a low R doesn't automatically mean a relaxing of restrictions. R is simply the rate at which cases are rising or falling. A low R with low cases is the goal and things would open up. What we have at the moment would be an R<1 but a large amount of cases so even though it's reducing, opening up when the baseline number of cases is still very high would mean the virus would just surge again.
I think this point is often missed or misinterpreted. I know you've not done this but I've seen people pushing for easing already because the R<1 in some places.
SB | |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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