Please log in or register. Registered visitors get fewer ads.
Forum index | Previous Thread | Next thread
“One Pfizer dose is not as effective as we hoped” 22:46 - Jan 19 with 4171 viewsElderGrizzly

Lessons to learn from Israel...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/19/single-covid-vaccine-dose-in-israe
0
“One Pfizer dose is not as effective as we hoped” on 08:48 - Jan 20 with 467 viewsStokieBlue

“One Pfizer dose is not as effective as we hoped” on 23:57 - Jan 19 by bluelagos

I think calling it a gamble is somewhat misleading. There is a level of uncertainty, but the scientists will have analysed / modelled the implications of delaying the second dose very thoroughly.

And there is lots of evidence from prior vaccines that will help them make an informed decision based around what they think the level of efficacy will be.


It's hard to say they have modelled changing the dosage of Pfizer, it's the only mRNA vaccine that's ever been deployed and thus It's not ideal to use other types of vaccines to make assumptions about new ones. It might be fine but there is no historical precedence for making such assumptions. There was some data that one dose gave 52% protection but in the real world this seems to be around 33% which is too low really. Of course these are experts so perhaps they saw some nugget in the data which made them think that a single dose would be enough.

Pfizer were very clear there is no data to use in modelling for the single dose then long gap dosage regime and there were many scientists against it. Fauci said he wasn't in favour of such an approach and hence the US is sticking to doses that have been tested.

For Oxford you are spot on but Pfizer is substantially different.

SB
[Post edited 20 Jan 2021 8:58]

Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula

2
“One Pfizer dose is not as effective as we hoped” on 08:50 - Jan 20 with 454 viewsChurchman

“One Pfizer dose is not as effective as we hoped” on 23:57 - Jan 19 by bluelagos

I think calling it a gamble is somewhat misleading. There is a level of uncertainty, but the scientists will have analysed / modelled the implications of delaying the second dose very thoroughly.

And there is lots of evidence from prior vaccines that will help them make an informed decision based around what they think the level of efficacy will be.


I think there is a danger in rushing to believe bad news too. I am not inclined to automatically believe an article posted in the Guardian (who lie or misquote just as much as the other rags - I know this as a matter of fact) which bases it’s article around maybes and quotation marks.

However, the clever people need to get on the data ASAP here and in places like Israel to find out the truth and I’m sure they will. It is in nobody’s interest including HMG for any vaccine to be ineffective.
1
“One Pfizer dose is not as effective as we hoped” on 09:07 - Jan 20 with 426 viewsbluelagos

“One Pfizer dose is not as effective as we hoped” on 08:48 - Jan 20 by StokieBlue

It's hard to say they have modelled changing the dosage of Pfizer, it's the only mRNA vaccine that's ever been deployed and thus It's not ideal to use other types of vaccines to make assumptions about new ones. It might be fine but there is no historical precedence for making such assumptions. There was some data that one dose gave 52% protection but in the real world this seems to be around 33% which is too low really. Of course these are experts so perhaps they saw some nugget in the data which made them think that a single dose would be enough.

Pfizer were very clear there is no data to use in modelling for the single dose then long gap dosage regime and there were many scientists against it. Fauci said he wasn't in favour of such an approach and hence the US is sticking to doses that have been tested.

For Oxford you are spot on but Pfizer is substantially different.

SB
[Post edited 20 Jan 2021 8:58]


So sticking with Pfizer, they have a decision to make. First off they look at the options.

Option 1: Administer per the tests, with certainty of x% effectiveness.
Option 2: Delay 2nd dose with an estimated y% effectiveness.

They run the numbers and calculate option 2 will save Z thousand lives, albeit with a level of uncertainty.

That is the choice they are facing. And by choosing option 1, it could well lead to additional people dieing needlessly.

This is not comfortable decision making and I'm glad I am nowhere it. But someone has to make that decision and it will involve uncertainty and risk and consequences for many thousands of people.

But as a boss once said to me, doing nothing is still a decision.

We can go round in circles all day and it is clear many posters are unhappy with the levels of risk/uncertainty. It is deeply uncomfortable and there are ethical dilmemmas too.

And if the JVCI guys were recommending a different route, then that would be worrying. We need to trust these guys advice and expect our politicians to follow it. I simply dont see an alternative tbh.

And the advice may indeed change, as their knowledge grows.

Poll: This new lockdown poll - what you reckon?

0
“One Pfizer dose is not as effective as we hoped” on 09:09 - Jan 20 with 422 viewsbluelagos

“One Pfizer dose is not as effective as we hoped” on 08:50 - Jan 20 by Churchman

I think there is a danger in rushing to believe bad news too. I am not inclined to automatically believe an article posted in the Guardian (who lie or misquote just as much as the other rags - I know this as a matter of fact) which bases it’s article around maybes and quotation marks.

However, the clever people need to get on the data ASAP here and in places like Israel to find out the truth and I’m sure they will. It is in nobody’s interest including HMG for any vaccine to be ineffective.


Spot on.

They will be all over this and reviewing their position / advice if appropriate.

Poll: This new lockdown poll - what you reckon?

0
“One Pfizer dose is not as effective as we hoped” on 09:18 - Jan 20 with 400 viewsSwansea_Blue

“One Pfizer dose is not as effective as we hoped” on 08:50 - Jan 20 by Churchman

I think there is a danger in rushing to believe bad news too. I am not inclined to automatically believe an article posted in the Guardian (who lie or misquote just as much as the other rags - I know this as a matter of fact) which bases it’s article around maybes and quotation marks.

However, the clever people need to get on the data ASAP here and in places like Israel to find out the truth and I’m sure they will. It is in nobody’s interest including HMG for any vaccine to be ineffective.


What's a lie in that article? What's wrong with quotation marks and using cautious language too? There's lots of uncertainty in all of this so they'd be irresponsible if they didn't couch it in terms of maybes and possibles. And I'd rather they quote people directly than paraphrase to change the meaning.

Poll: Do you think Pert is key to all of this?

0
“One Pfizer dose is not as effective as we hoped” on 09:18 - Jan 20 with 401 viewsStokieBlue

“One Pfizer dose is not as effective as we hoped” on 09:07 - Jan 20 by bluelagos

So sticking with Pfizer, they have a decision to make. First off they look at the options.

Option 1: Administer per the tests, with certainty of x% effectiveness.
Option 2: Delay 2nd dose with an estimated y% effectiveness.

They run the numbers and calculate option 2 will save Z thousand lives, albeit with a level of uncertainty.

That is the choice they are facing. And by choosing option 1, it could well lead to additional people dieing needlessly.

This is not comfortable decision making and I'm glad I am nowhere it. But someone has to make that decision and it will involve uncertainty and risk and consequences for many thousands of people.

But as a boss once said to me, doing nothing is still a decision.

We can go round in circles all day and it is clear many posters are unhappy with the levels of risk/uncertainty. It is deeply uncomfortable and there are ethical dilmemmas too.

And if the JVCI guys were recommending a different route, then that would be worrying. We need to trust these guys advice and expect our politicians to follow it. I simply dont see an alternative tbh.

And the advice may indeed change, as their knowledge grows.


I agree it's a very difficult decision to make but it's worth noting that very few countries have agreed with the JVCI and are giving the single dose as we are. I am sure the calculations they made with regards to deaths vs vaccinations was spot on but if it was based on a theoretical 52% efficacy rather than 33% then it's going to cause all kinds of problems.

However there are some caveats with the Israeli data in that the checking was done with PCR rather than visible symptoms so it's possible those people won't get sick enough to go to hospital but could be transmitting the virus.

If that's the case it will probably turn out fine. I guess many just see it as a huge risk given we have a lot of Oxford vaccine coming and it's the most vulnerable people that are getting the single dose.

It's too early to make a definite call on this given just the Israeli data as you say.

SB

Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula

1
“One Pfizer dose is not as effective as we hoped” on 09:25 - Jan 20 with 388 viewsbluelagos

“One Pfizer dose is not as effective as we hoped” on 09:18 - Jan 20 by Swansea_Blue

What's a lie in that article? What's wrong with quotation marks and using cautious language too? There's lots of uncertainty in all of this so they'd be irresponsible if they didn't couch it in terms of maybes and possibles. And I'd rather they quote people directly than paraphrase to change the meaning.


I think he was referring to the honesty of their reporting generally rather than specifically in this instance.

Poll: This new lockdown poll - what you reckon?

1
“One Pfizer dose is not as effective as we hoped” on 09:25 - Jan 20 with 387 viewsElderGrizzly

“One Pfizer dose is not as effective as we hoped” on 09:07 - Jan 20 by bluelagos

So sticking with Pfizer, they have a decision to make. First off they look at the options.

Option 1: Administer per the tests, with certainty of x% effectiveness.
Option 2: Delay 2nd dose with an estimated y% effectiveness.

They run the numbers and calculate option 2 will save Z thousand lives, albeit with a level of uncertainty.

That is the choice they are facing. And by choosing option 1, it could well lead to additional people dieing needlessly.

This is not comfortable decision making and I'm glad I am nowhere it. But someone has to make that decision and it will involve uncertainty and risk and consequences for many thousands of people.

But as a boss once said to me, doing nothing is still a decision.

We can go round in circles all day and it is clear many posters are unhappy with the levels of risk/uncertainty. It is deeply uncomfortable and there are ethical dilmemmas too.

And if the JVCI guys were recommending a different route, then that would be worrying. We need to trust these guys advice and expect our politicians to follow it. I simply dont see an alternative tbh.

And the advice may indeed change, as their knowledge grows.


Your last point is all most medics appear to be asking.

Watch the emerging evidence and don't be afraid to change course
1
Login to get fewer ads

“One Pfizer dose is not as effective as we hoped” on 09:27 - Jan 20 with 383 viewsElderGrizzly

“One Pfizer dose is not as effective as we hoped” on 09:18 - Jan 20 by Swansea_Blue

What's a lie in that article? What's wrong with quotation marks and using cautious language too? There's lots of uncertainty in all of this so they'd be irresponsible if they didn't couch it in terms of maybes and possibles. And I'd rather they quote people directly than paraphrase to change the meaning.


It also isn't just reported in the Guardian. It is in media across the world, because Israel were being seen as a lead on all this.
0
“One Pfizer dose is not as effective as we hoped” on 09:33 - Jan 20 with 376 viewsbluelagos

“One Pfizer dose is not as effective as we hoped” on 09:25 - Jan 20 by ElderGrizzly

Your last point is all most medics appear to be asking.

Watch the emerging evidence and don't be afraid to change course


100% agree EG. If the chosen option / decision is shown to be wrong, change path asap.

If politics, or fear of looking bad prevented that, it would be criminal. (If it were the case)

Poll: This new lockdown poll - what you reckon?

0
“One Pfizer dose is not as effective as we hoped” on 09:43 - Jan 20 with 368 viewshype313

Sir Patrick plays down Pfizer vaccine worries
On Israel's claims that efficacy from the first dose of the Pfizer vaccine may be as low as 3%, Sir Patrick said studies showed that from day 10 after vaccination to 21 days and beyond, it was "much more like 89%", though he admitted "when you get into real-world practice things are seldom quite as good as clinical trials".

He added: "It probably won't be as high as that in practice, but I don't think it'll be as low as the figures you've just given."

Poll: Simpson - Keep, Sell or Loan

0
“One Pfizer dose is not as effective as we hoped” on 09:48 - Jan 20 with 361 viewsStokieBlue

“One Pfizer dose is not as effective as we hoped” on 09:43 - Jan 20 by hype313

Sir Patrick plays down Pfizer vaccine worries
On Israel's claims that efficacy from the first dose of the Pfizer vaccine may be as low as 3%, Sir Patrick said studies showed that from day 10 after vaccination to 21 days and beyond, it was "much more like 89%", though he admitted "when you get into real-world practice things are seldom quite as good as clinical trials".

He added: "It probably won't be as high as that in practice, but I don't think it'll be as low as the figures you've just given."


Israel are saying 33% aren't they?

Pfizer said the problem with saying it's 89% with a single dose is that they have no confidence that the protection will be long lasting with a single dose because they have no data so it could drop off a cliff quickly with only a single dose.

SB

Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula

1
“One Pfizer dose is not as effective as we hoped” on 09:55 - Jan 20 with 347 viewsgiant_stow

Sorry if someone's already made this point, but don't you need the deaths and hospitalisations data on first dose people before you talk about lessons learned? ie. isn't it possible that people who've only had the first dose in Isreal and get the virus will get a less severe infection? Mayube I'm missing something...

Has anyone ever looked at their own postings for last day or so? Oh my... so sorry. Was Ullaa
Poll: A clasmate tells your son their going to beat him up in the playground after sch

0
As always, there are massive variations in..... on 10:03 - Jan 20 with 330 viewsBloots

“One Pfizer dose is not as effective as we hoped” on 09:55 - Jan 20 by giant_stow

Sorry if someone's already made this point, but don't you need the deaths and hospitalisations data on first dose people before you talk about lessons learned? ie. isn't it possible that people who've only had the first dose in Isreal and get the virus will get a less severe infection? Mayube I'm missing something...


.....how figures are reported, whether it's vaccine effectiveness, infection rates or deaths.

The media were stating that we had the worst "death toll" in the world earlier this week, when different data sets show us as about 6th in Europe.

This 33% figure, as with the 52% figure quoted previously doesn't take into account any period after the vaccination is given that allows for immunity to build up.

Also it is based on people still being "infectious" rather than showing "severe symptoms".

Not very many level heads around at the moment.

Lambert out.

TWTD Leadership Group/Elite Level Supporter/Anti-Bullying Crusader

1
“One Pfizer dose is not as effective as we hoped” on 10:04 - Jan 20 with 324 viewslongtimefan

“One Pfizer dose is not as effective as we hoped” on 09:48 - Jan 20 by StokieBlue

Israel are saying 33% aren't they?

Pfizer said the problem with saying it's 89% with a single dose is that they have no confidence that the protection will be long lasting with a single dose because they have no data so it could drop off a cliff quickly with only a single dose.

SB


When the single dose approach was first reported there was a Doctor on the radio (can’t remember who but think he was from JCVI) who said they were partly basing the approach for Pfizer on non public results from the Moderna trials, as it is similar tech to the Pfizer. I’ve never heard or seen any evidence of this other than that interview.
0
As always, there are massive variations in..... on 10:05 - Jan 20 with 320 viewsgiant_stow

As always, there are massive variations in..... on 10:03 - Jan 20 by Bloots

.....how figures are reported, whether it's vaccine effectiveness, infection rates or deaths.

The media were stating that we had the worst "death toll" in the world earlier this week, when different data sets show us as about 6th in Europe.

This 33% figure, as with the 52% figure quoted previously doesn't take into account any period after the vaccination is given that allows for immunity to build up.

Also it is based on people still being "infectious" rather than showing "severe symptoms".

Not very many level heads around at the moment.

Lambert out.


Thanks for the clarification mr. Sounds like we need to hang in there and trust our scientists.

Has anyone ever looked at their own postings for last day or so? Oh my... so sorry. Was Ullaa
Poll: A clasmate tells your son their going to beat him up in the playground after sch

0
As always, there are massive variations in..... on 10:07 - Jan 20 with 313 viewsDanTheMan

As always, there are massive variations in..... on 10:03 - Jan 20 by Bloots

.....how figures are reported, whether it's vaccine effectiveness, infection rates or deaths.

The media were stating that we had the worst "death toll" in the world earlier this week, when different data sets show us as about 6th in Europe.

This 33% figure, as with the 52% figure quoted previously doesn't take into account any period after the vaccination is given that allows for immunity to build up.

Also it is based on people still being "infectious" rather than showing "severe symptoms".

Not very many level heads around at the moment.

Lambert out.


Wasn't it the death rate being reported, not the death toll?

I'd also argue that even if it was 6th, that's till pretty bad given our resources and geographical location.
[Post edited 20 Jan 2021 10:07]

Poll: FM Parallel Game Week 1 (Fulham) - Available Team

0
As always, there are massive variations in..... on 10:09 - Jan 20 with 304 viewsElderGrizzly

As always, there are massive variations in..... on 10:05 - Jan 20 by giant_stow

Thanks for the clarification mr. Sounds like we need to hang in there and trust our scientists.


Because British is best?

Or listen to Pfizer and other scientists around the world who are giving conflicting advice to JCVI.

I'm prepared and have looked at multiple sources around this particular Pfizer vaccine issue and as I said to BlueLagos, just hope all the evidence is reviewed, not just that which supports the original decision.
0
“One Pfizer dose is not as effective as we hoped” on 10:09 - Jan 20 with 304 viewsStokieBlue

“One Pfizer dose is not as effective as we hoped” on 10:04 - Jan 20 by longtimefan

When the single dose approach was first reported there was a Doctor on the radio (can’t remember who but think he was from JCVI) who said they were partly basing the approach for Pfizer on non public results from the Moderna trials, as it is similar tech to the Pfizer. I’ve never heard or seen any evidence of this other than that interview.


I've not seen that.

They certainly said they were basing the Oxford single dose delay on non-public data.

SB

Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula

0
As always, there are massive variations in..... on 10:10 - Jan 20 with 302 viewsElderGrizzly

As always, there are massive variations in..... on 10:07 - Jan 20 by DanTheMan

Wasn't it the death rate being reported, not the death toll?

I'd also argue that even if it was 6th, that's till pretty bad given our resources and geographical location.
[Post edited 20 Jan 2021 10:07]


Yes it was. Death rate we were worst for the rolling 7 day period. The Government said it wasn't fair to look at the rolling 7 day period as things change.

They were happy to look at the 7 day vaccine rate though...
0
As always, there are massive variations in..... on 10:10 - Jan 20 with 299 viewsStokieBlue

As always, there are massive variations in..... on 10:07 - Jan 20 by DanTheMan

Wasn't it the death rate being reported, not the death toll?

I'd also argue that even if it was 6th, that's till pretty bad given our resources and geographical location.
[Post edited 20 Jan 2021 10:07]


That data was specifically for the last week and the UK has had an awful week with regards to deaths due to the surge in cases with the new variant at the end of last year (and probably due to Christmas mixing).

There is very little that can be done about this now, it's baked in unfortunately and will probably be the case for the next couple of weeks.

SB
[Post edited 20 Jan 2021 10:11]

Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula

0
As always, there are massive variations in..... on 10:11 - Jan 20 with 295 viewsgiant_stow

As always, there are massive variations in..... on 10:07 - Jan 20 by DanTheMan

Wasn't it the death rate being reported, not the death toll?

I'd also argue that even if it was 6th, that's till pretty bad given our resources and geographical location.
[Post edited 20 Jan 2021 10:07]


Isn't too soon to judge? We're barely over our current wave - who knows how this will all play out - it's possible that we get our population fully vacninated by late summer, where other European countries stuggle to fdo the same by the end of the year. We can only judge each country's "performance" in handling the pandemic when Covid is fully tamed everywhere.

All I'm saying is that we've obviously made howlers, but perhaps are now closer to fixing things - others' howlers may be in progress.

Has anyone ever looked at their own postings for last day or so? Oh my... so sorry. Was Ullaa
Poll: A clasmate tells your son their going to beat him up in the playground after sch

0
As always, there are massive variations in..... on 10:13 - Jan 20 with 292 viewshype313

As always, there are massive variations in..... on 10:11 - Jan 20 by giant_stow

Isn't too soon to judge? We're barely over our current wave - who knows how this will all play out - it's possible that we get our population fully vacninated by late summer, where other European countries stuggle to fdo the same by the end of the year. We can only judge each country's "performance" in handling the pandemic when Covid is fully tamed everywhere.

All I'm saying is that we've obviously made howlers, but perhaps are now closer to fixing things - others' howlers may be in progress.


I noticed Germany had another shocking day yesterday on their numbers, considering how well they did in the early stages the numbers are starting to look really bad.

Poll: Simpson - Keep, Sell or Loan

1
As always, there are massive variations in..... on 10:14 - Jan 20 with 290 viewsgiant_stow

As always, there are massive variations in..... on 10:09 - Jan 20 by ElderGrizzly

Because British is best?

Or listen to Pfizer and other scientists around the world who are giving conflicting advice to JCVI.

I'm prepared and have looked at multiple sources around this particular Pfizer vaccine issue and as I said to BlueLagos, just hope all the evidence is reviewed, not just that which supports the original decision.


No, not becasue British is best - because they're in post, calling the shots and the picture is still very unclear.

In any case, I'm sure our bods are looking around at others - they don't need message-boarders to light the way.

Has anyone ever looked at their own postings for last day or so? Oh my... so sorry. Was Ullaa
Poll: A clasmate tells your son their going to beat him up in the playground after sch

0
As always, there are massive variations in..... on 10:15 - Jan 20 with 289 viewsStokieBlue

As always, there are massive variations in..... on 10:13 - Jan 20 by hype313

I noticed Germany had another shocking day yesterday on their numbers, considering how well they did in the early stages the numbers are starting to look really bad.


Especially given the new variants aren't widespread there yet and thus this is the slower spreading variants.

Although they have discovered a Bavarian strain but they haven't done the analysis to see if it's faster spreading so that could be a huge factor behind this.

SB

Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula

1
About Us Contact Us Terms & Conditions Privacy Cookies Advertising
© TWTD 1995-2024