| Change in vaccination strategy coming? on 20:52 - Feb 7 with 2259 views | StokieBlue |
I think it's going to have to be considered although the official AZ study isn't published until tomorrow I believe. If the results are repeated on a larger sample size with older cohorts then it's likely we might have to change to getting the most vulnerable vaccinated twice at a quicker rate rather than leaving as long a gap as possible.
Also worth noting that the mutation which is causing the issue (E484K) has also now been found in a mutation of the UK (Kent) variant. It's obviously not an uncommon mutation in C19 and must give significant benefit as it's also the same mutation as in Brazil.
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| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Change in vaccination strategy coming? on 20:53 - Feb 7 with 2254 views | Funge |
To counter your usual and repeated gloom with all things COVID, it is worth mentioning that further down the article it is mentioned that:-
'All the vaccines, however, have been found to protect against the most severe disease, hospitalisation and death' |  | | |
| Change in vaccination strategy coming? on 20:56 - Feb 7 with 2227 views | GlasgowBlue |
| Change in vaccination strategy coming? on 20:52 - Feb 7 by StokieBlue |
I think it's going to have to be considered although the official AZ study isn't published until tomorrow I believe. If the results are repeated on a larger sample size with older cohorts then it's likely we might have to change to getting the most vulnerable vaccinated twice at a quicker rate rather than leaving as long a gap as possible.
Also worth noting that the mutation which is causing the issue (E484K) has also now been found in a mutation of the UK (Kent) variant. It's obviously not an uncommon mutation in C19 and must give significant benefit as it's also the same mutation as in Brazil.
SB |
The report suggests protection against deaths, hospitalisations and severe disease.
Re the 12 week gap between doses fir AZ and Pfizer. This went under the radar a couple of days ago.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/03/one-pfizerbiontech-jab-gives-90-im
This shows that a single dose of vaccine is highly protective, although it can take up to 21 days to achieve this.”
He believes this should be reassuring for the UK. The researchers do not know how long protection will last after a single shot, he said, but “we are unlikely to see any major decline during the following nine weeks”. |  |
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| Change in vaccination strategy coming? on 20:57 - Feb 7 with 2229 views | J2BLUE |
| Change in vaccination strategy coming? on 20:53 - Feb 7 by Funge |
To counter your usual and repeated gloom with all things COVID, it is worth mentioning that further down the article it is mentioned that:-
'All the vaccines, however, have been found to protect against the most severe disease, hospitalisation and death' |
I was going to say I read on Sky News that it didn't protect against mild disease but was fine against severe cases. That's all we can ask really isn't it? |  |
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| Change in vaccination strategy coming? on 20:59 - Feb 7 with 2206 views | Funge |
| Change in vaccination strategy coming? on 20:57 - Feb 7 by J2BLUE |
I was going to say I read on Sky News that it didn't protect against mild disease but was fine against severe cases. That's all we can ask really isn't it? |
Absolutely; seems straightforward to me.
I am welcome to be corrected on this point. | | | |
| Change in vaccination strategy coming? on 21:00 - Feb 7 with 2196 views | bluefunk |
Here we go again, more negativity- do you ever post anything positive. |  | | |
| Change in vaccination strategy coming? on 21:00 - Feb 7 with 2213 views | blueblueburleymcgrew |
Isn’t the thrust of this that it will help in alleviating hospitalisations and deaths but will perhaps have limited affect (not no affect) on milder cases.
Vaccines are preventative not cures if it means you get a mild illness rather than a life threatening illness, I will take that. |  | | |
| Change in vaccination strategy coming? on 21:04 - Feb 7 with 2158 views | GlasgowBlue |
| Change in vaccination strategy coming? on 21:00 - Feb 7 by blueblueburleymcgrew |
Isn’t the thrust of this that it will help in alleviating hospitalisations and deaths but will perhaps have limited affect (not no affect) on milder cases.
Vaccines are preventative not cures if it means you get a mild illness rather than a life threatening illness, I will take that. |
Indeed. And they are already working in modifying the vaccine to cope with the different variants. Just as they do every year with the flu vaccine. | |
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| Change in vaccination strategy coming? on 21:07 - Feb 7 with 2144 views | BlueBadger |
| Change in vaccination strategy coming? on 20:57 - Feb 7 by J2BLUE |
I was going to say I read on Sky News that it didn't protect against mild disease but was fine against severe cases. That's all we can ask really isn't it? |
Reducing covid to the sort of level of threat that flu generally holds is a massive thing, if we can achieve it. |  |
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| Change in vaccination strategy coming? on 21:08 - Feb 7 with 2141 views | blueblueburleymcgrew |
| Change in vaccination strategy coming? on 21:04 - Feb 7 by GlasgowBlue |
Indeed. And they are already working in modifying the vaccine to cope with the different variants. Just as they do every year with the flu vaccine. |
Balance is so important in all this reporting. | | | |
| Change in vaccination strategy coming? on 21:11 - Feb 7 with 2126 views | StokieBlue |
| Change in vaccination strategy coming? on 20:56 - Feb 7 by GlasgowBlue |
The report suggests protection against deaths, hospitalisations and severe disease.
Re the 12 week gap between doses fir AZ and Pfizer. This went under the radar a couple of days ago.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/03/one-pfizerbiontech-jab-gives-90-im
This shows that a single dose of vaccine is highly protective, although it can take up to 21 days to achieve this.”
He believes this should be reassuring for the UK. The researchers do not know how long protection will last after a single shot, he said, but “we are unlikely to see any major decline during the following nine weeks”. |
AZ said this earlier today:
"A spokesman for the pharmaceutical company said it had not yet been able to properly establish whether the jab would prevent severe disease and hospitalisation caused by the South Africa variant because those involved in the study had predominantly been young, healthy adults."
They are however hopeful it will work but they don't have any data showing that it works. The issue is that it doesn't seem to stop mild disease which means the cases will remain high and that will still cause stress on health services but it will be much better than now as you've pointed out.
I was reading some of the literature this morning and they aren't sure that it protects against hospitalisation in the older cohorts with the E484K mutation. AZ are publishing data tomorrow but it's only on people below 31 years old I believe and the efficacy is markedly reduced. They aren't sure it will protect against hospitalisation, especially in the older cohorts but they are hopeful which is good.
In the link you provided they have used the same data but come to a different interpretation, we should wait for the peer review before stating their interpretation is correct (obviously let's hope it is).
That wasn't my point though, my point is if the older cohorts aren't guaranteed protection from the E484K mutation after one dose we might need to change to giving them two doses in a quicker succession and move some less vulnerable people further down the waiting list.
SB [Post edited 7 Feb 2021 21:12]
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| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Change in vaccination strategy coming? on 21:15 - Feb 7 with 2110 views | ElderGrizzly |
| Change in vaccination strategy coming? on 20:53 - Feb 7 by Funge |
To counter your usual and repeated gloom with all things COVID, it is worth mentioning that further down the article it is mentioned that:-
'All the vaccines, however, have been found to protect against the most severe disease, hospitalisation and death' |
Its a struggle to find much hilarity in it when you deal with the consequences of the Govt inaction every day.
I’ve said multiple times on threads i have started how brilliant the fact we have vaccines is and the rollout (in general) has gone too.
That last point is important, but it represents a small % of those affected. To protect against further mutations you need the vaccine to be more effective against variants.
AZ is 30% against the SA variant and 75% against the Kent variant, vs 84% against the ‘regular’ Covid. My OP is just pointing out that significant difference. And for context a vaccine isn’t considered for licence/approval below 50% |  | | |
| Change in vaccination strategy coming? on 21:18 - Feb 7 with 2087 views | ElderGrizzly |
| Change in vaccination strategy coming? on 21:11 - Feb 7 by StokieBlue |
AZ said this earlier today:
"A spokesman for the pharmaceutical company said it had not yet been able to properly establish whether the jab would prevent severe disease and hospitalisation caused by the South Africa variant because those involved in the study had predominantly been young, healthy adults."
They are however hopeful it will work but they don't have any data showing that it works. The issue is that it doesn't seem to stop mild disease which means the cases will remain high and that will still cause stress on health services but it will be much better than now as you've pointed out.
I was reading some of the literature this morning and they aren't sure that it protects against hospitalisation in the older cohorts with the E484K mutation. AZ are publishing data tomorrow but it's only on people below 31 years old I believe and the efficacy is markedly reduced. They aren't sure it will protect against hospitalisation, especially in the older cohorts but they are hopeful which is good.
In the link you provided they have used the same data but come to a different interpretation, we should wait for the peer review before stating their interpretation is correct (obviously let's hope it is).
That wasn't my point though, my point is if the older cohorts aren't guaranteed protection from the E484K mutation after one dose we might need to change to giving them two doses in a quicker succession and move some less vulnerable people further down the waiting list.
SB [Post edited 7 Feb 2021 21:12]
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Indeed they did. Hence why I put my OP up.
Almost like knowing the whole story helps | | | |
| Change in vaccination strategy coming? on 21:18 - Feb 7 with 2096 views | Clapham_Junction |
Separate to this - does anyone know what's going on with the vaccination drive? Two members of my family are volunteering at vaccination centres, and both were very quiet today - one closed a couple of hours early due to the lack of people coming to get vaccinated (they are not in areas with terrible weather either). I'd have thought we'd be getting people through them as quickly as possible. [Post edited 7 Feb 2021 21:19]
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| Change in vaccination strategy coming? on 21:19 - Feb 7 with 2074 views | StokieBlue |
| Change in vaccination strategy coming? on 21:15 - Feb 7 by ElderGrizzly |
Its a struggle to find much hilarity in it when you deal with the consequences of the Govt inaction every day.
I’ve said multiple times on threads i have started how brilliant the fact we have vaccines is and the rollout (in general) has gone too.
That last point is important, but it represents a small % of those affected. To protect against further mutations you need the vaccine to be more effective against variants.
AZ is 30% against the SA variant and 75% against the Kent variant, vs 84% against the ‘regular’ Covid. My OP is just pointing out that significant difference. And for context a vaccine isn’t considered for licence/approval below 50% |
Flu vaccines often have efficacies below 50% though and are used.
The main problem (which you have highlighted) is that if the virus still circulates widely and there are a large number of mild cases then that increases the scope for mutations that are beneficial to the virus. A counter to this argument could be that with only 68m people in the UK there is a far greater chance of those mutations happening anyway in the large number of countries which aren't even vaccinating yet.
That's assuming it does prevent hospitalisation in the older cohorts, if not then that is clearly the main issue.
SB [Post edited 7 Feb 2021 21:21]
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| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Change in vaccination strategy coming? on 21:20 - Feb 7 with 2067 views | ElderGrizzly |
| Change in vaccination strategy coming? on 21:08 - Feb 7 by blueblueburleymcgrew |
Balance is so important in all this reporting. |
It is, hence why Stokie’s post is important as it contains even more information | | | |
| Change in vaccination strategy coming? on 21:21 - Feb 7 with 2058 views | ElderGrizzly |
| Change in vaccination strategy coming? on 21:19 - Feb 7 by StokieBlue |
Flu vaccines often have efficacies below 50% though and are used.
The main problem (which you have highlighted) is that if the virus still circulates widely and there are a large number of mild cases then that increases the scope for mutations that are beneficial to the virus. A counter to this argument could be that with only 68m people in the UK there is a far greater chance of those mutations happening anyway in the large number of countries which aren't even vaccinating yet.
That's assuming it does prevent hospitalisation in the older cohorts, if not then that is clearly the main issue.
SB [Post edited 7 Feb 2021 21:21]
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They aren’t considered new vaccines though.
The % I was referring to was for licensing of the new vaccines | | | |
| Change in vaccination strategy coming? on 21:23 - Feb 7 with 2045 views | ElderGrizzly |
| Change in vaccination strategy coming? on 20:57 - Feb 7 by J2BLUE |
I was going to say I read on Sky News that it didn't protect against mild disease but was fine against severe cases. That's all we can ask really isn't it? |
A spokesman for the pharmaceutical company said it had not yet been able to properly establish whether the jab would prevent severe disease and hospitalisation caused by the South Africa variant because those involved in the study had predominantly been young, healthy adults." | | | |
| Change in vaccination strategy coming? on 21:25 - Feb 7 with 2030 views | nodge_blue |
The good news is though that they are already working on a version to be effective against SA version that will be here in the autumn.
So hopefully there is protection in the meantime against severe illness and the SA one gets tackled more later in the year, |  |
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| Change in vaccination strategy coming? on 21:30 - Feb 7 with 2017 views | StokieBlue |
| Change in vaccination strategy coming? on 21:25 - Feb 7 by nodge_blue |
The good news is though that they are already working on a version to be effective against SA version that will be here in the autumn.
So hopefully there is protection in the meantime against severe illness and the SA one gets tackled more later in the year, |
That is excellent of course but this is where the mRNA vaccines really come into their own. Pfizer were saying they could get a new version ready in around 6 weeks given it's "just" rewriting some of the programming in order to get the body to create the modified spike protein.
I wonder if there will be issues with people saying the tweaked vaccines come to fast and haven't been tested enough like there were with the original vaccines.
SB [Post edited 7 Feb 2021 21:30]
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| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Change in vaccination strategy coming? on 21:30 - Feb 7 with 2008 views | blueblueburleymcgrew |
| Change in vaccination strategy coming? on 21:20 - Feb 7 by ElderGrizzly |
It is, hence why Stokie’s post is important as it contains even more information |
I hope no one would be put off halving the AZ vaccine because of the reporting around this story which is being questioned by some eminent scientists and commentators.
The underlying message is still very very strongly, to get vaccinated. | | | |
| Change in vaccination strategy coming? on 21:31 - Feb 7 with 1991 views | WD19 |
| Change in vaccination strategy coming? on 21:23 - Feb 7 by ElderGrizzly |
A spokesman for the pharmaceutical company said it had not yet been able to properly establish whether the jab would prevent severe disease and hospitalisation caused by the South Africa variant because those involved in the study had predominantly been young, healthy adults." |
And went on add......The company said it believed its vaccine could protect against severe disease, given that the neutralising antibody activity was equivalent to that of other Covid-19 vaccines that have demonstrated protection against severe disease. |  | | |
| Change in vaccination strategy coming? on 21:32 - Feb 7 with 1989 views | J2BLUE |
| Change in vaccination strategy coming? on 21:23 - Feb 7 by ElderGrizzly |
A spokesman for the pharmaceutical company said it had not yet been able to properly establish whether the jab would prevent severe disease and hospitalisation caused by the South Africa variant because those involved in the study had predominantly been young, healthy adults." |
But it looks promising. There's no need for us to change the rollout right now. I really don't understand South Africa's logic on delaying vaccines because of limited protection against mild disease. | |
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| Change in vaccination strategy coming? on 21:36 - Feb 7 with 1955 views | ElderGrizzly |
| Change in vaccination strategy coming? on 21:30 - Feb 7 by blueblueburleymcgrew |
I hope no one would be put off halving the AZ vaccine because of the reporting around this story which is being questioned by some eminent scientists and commentators.
The underlying message is still very very strongly, to get vaccinated. |
I’d hope no-one is put off too, because some protection is better than none.
I’d still rather have AZ than Pfizer based on the current dosing strategy in the UK, as we still need the evidence that Pfizer works on a 12 week gap as well as it should.
My wife who is clinically vulnerable (due to chemo) has had the AZ one and i’m thrilled she has.
The worry is any drop in protection just elongates things such as national lockdowns etc and as some on here will tell you, they believe that is maybe more damaging than Covid itself | | | |
| Change in vaccination strategy coming? on 21:37 - Feb 7 with 1942 views | ElderGrizzly |
| Change in vaccination strategy coming? on 21:32 - Feb 7 by J2BLUE |
But it looks promising. There's no need for us to change the rollout right now. I really don't understand South Africa's logic on delaying vaccines because of limited protection against mild disease. |
Agree, we’re clearly not changing now as some protection is better than nothing | | | |
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